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Elliott Wave

Aussie:Elliott Wave Structure Suggests More Downside After RallyThe RBA stands out with a potentially different approach compared to other central banks, as inflation in Autralia remains relatively high, making rate cuts this week less likely. This could support a rally in the Aussie, which aligns with the Elliott Wave pattern showing wave A in its final stages, with a strong five wave sell-off from September highs. A bounce could develop then, especially if the HSI remains stable or even moves higher this week. However, once the Aussie shows a solid recovery, be awre for a potential resumption of the downtrend, ideally from around 0.67 resistance; from the area of a former wave four. For those trading this pair, it’s worth waiting for a bounce before entering on the short-side. Grega
Short
by ew-forecast
1
SMHI - Can an ugly chart actually be a good play?This is one of those charts I had on a watchlist titled "Waiting For Bottom". I checked in on Friday and it was touching the bottom of the channel. Boom! Is this post a prediction? Nope. Do I think this Elliott Wave count is for sure accurate? Nope. So what is this? First of all, remove all of the markings and look at the chart with nothing but price action. What do you see? If your answer is a "a complete mess that was generally melting up until the middle of 2024", you'd be correct. This is not a trending stock with a high probability setup. There is no clear 5-waves up pattern playing out. In fact, there is no clear anything pattern playing out. But that's exactly why I think this "might" be a diagonal and might be an interesting play for a solid risk/reward. What is a diagonal you ask? Let's make sure you understand. In Elliott Wave, there are only TWO types of bullish patterns. The first is the classic 5-wave impulse where the underlying trends up in odd numbered waves and correcting each one in the even numbered waves. Think of a lightning bolt. 1 - Up off a low. 2 - Corrects 1, can't move below it. 3 - The breakout, usually the most impulsive and powerful wave. 4 - Corrects 3, can't break below the top of 1. 5 - The final move up, can be powerful, can be weak, but will almost always give a higher high. 5-wave impulsive moves start when the underlying is very bearish. Wave 1 starts by getting back to or breaking a key resistance area. Those who jump in during it are considered early adopters. The only support is the previous low. The vast majority of market participants are avoiding. Once it tops and rolls over, the majority are convinced new lows are coming. Some early adopters sell out or take profit. But a successful Wave 2 holds above the previous low, giving a higher low setup. It is followed by a consolidation as momentum builds up in the beginning of the 3rd wave. Once Wave 3 breaks out above Wave 1, smart technical traders start jumping in. Maybe it happens on an earnings report and some fundies jump in. It starts to really trend as more heads start to turn and realize that not only did it hold a higher low, buts its also working on a higher high. And if it is powerful enough, it will break more resistance and more and more participants will jump in. Eventually though, Wave 3 tops. Many early adopters take their profit and leave. It consolidates into a Wave 4, holding another higher low above the Wave 1 top. But as it starts Wave 5, the majority of the participants are now the late adopters and retail traders, with a spattering of early adopters who still have a small tranche left, already being in the green on smart sales at the top of Wave 3. Wave 5 then completes, often trapping late adopters who were sure it was going to the moon. Well this stock doesn't seem to be that. This thing overlaps all over the place. It could be an upward corrective wave of some sort before a drop to new lows. But as of now, it's playing along nicely with what its called a diagonal. A diagonal is a 5-wave structure. But this one is different. With diagonals, Wave 3 "can" overlap below the top of Wave 1. And one of the leading clues you might be in a diagonal is when the subwaves break down into segments of 3 wave moves instead of 5 wave moves. Why does this exist? Well, it starts off similar to a standard 5-wave move. A low is formed and a move is commenced off of it. But the succeeding retracement of that move is VERY deep, retracing almost all of the first move up. The next higher high is then around 100-161.8% of the first move, with the retracement that follows also very deep. All of this is likely happening within Wave (1) and Wave (2) of the diagonal. See, market participants are so polarized with the underlying, that they are whipping it back and forth, neither side able to ultimately win very long, yet the bulls slightly nudging out the bears with marginal higher highs and higher lows. It continues this whipsaw with every move, slowly melting upward. Instead of the whole 5-wave pattern targeting the 176.4%-200% extension of Wave 1 from the bottom of Wave 2 (what happens in a standard 5-wave impulse), it targets lower extension levels, typically the 161.8% level. Diagonals are either LEADING or ENDING moves. They CAN NOT be 3rd waves in larger patterns. So you will either get one as a first wave of a larger move, or you will get one to finish a larger move. In this case, it would be a leading diagonal of something much larger. So back to this specific stock. Thanks for enduring the educational section. Let's talk why I think this is a diagonal. You can see the wave labels clearly outlining the 3-wave moves within the larger 5-wave diagonal. They are labeled ABC within the (1)(2)(3)(4)(5). At present, this is within $1 of the ideal retracement level of the (3)rd wave for Wave (4). And it's clearly the 3rd segment of the ABC we would expect for a corrective (4)th wave. Not only that, it's holding the channel (but that's not required, just an area of support). Diagonals do often retrace deep, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue to the 76.4% correction area around $4.50. If you are risk averse, you could enter in the current area with stop just under $4.49. But as long as it holds the Wave (2) low, the diagonal stays valid. Ideally, it would be either contracting (trendline connecting (1), (3), and (5) contracting toward trendline connecting (2) and (4)) or expanding (same thing, but trendlines diverging away from each other), with expanding diagonals being pretty rare, but possible. They can tend to run in channels as well. So ideally, this doesn't get much lower as that would turn it into an expanding diagonal, which we know is rare, and leads to future bullish action being even MORE unreliable. Standard supply and demand zones are on the chart representing major support and resistance areas. If this holds support, it likely finds renewed strength up toward resistance and will bounce around in mostly unpredictable, overlapping structures that generally melt up. But once it engages the next C Wave, you should be able to track a standard 5-wave pattern within that C, as C-waves are always 5-wave structures. As I stated at the beginning, in no way is this a reliable structure. But you see things like this fairly often, and anywhere from second to monthly charts. The longer the duration, the more confusing, as you can have years of price movement that seem to make no sense. Ultimately, you have to watch supports and play smart. Is this something you want to align a lot of your money in? Probably not. It's unpredictable at best. And it could fail at any moment at worst since diagonals are "technically" corrective structures even when bullish. But is a chart like this giving up a setup for potentially phenomenal risk/reward? You bet. Just make sure and manage your risk. And you do that with your position sizing, using an appropriate stop *and if you get stopped, stay stopped. You set it for a reason, don't second guess), and understanding your targets, making sure to de-risk as quick as possible by selling enough at key levels to get your original equity back should it move upward. Feel free to ask questions. This was meant to be educational and shed some light on a complicated chart structure while providing a thesis for how to potentially play it. Standard disclosures: 1. This is 100% my idea. It was not sourced from any other avenue. 2. I am not invested in this company, though I am likely buying shares soon. 3. I am not paid to post content nor do I receive any contributions of any kind. 4. While this is outlining a potential profitable setup, this article is not investment advice. You should do your own due diligence on any company you invest in and apply your own trading strategies. 5. I know nothing about the fundamentals of this company. I suggest doing your due diligence if fundamentals are important to you. 6. Readers should always remember that markets are their own creature made up of millions of individuals and institutions each following some combo of inherent bullishness, inherent bearishness, fundamentals, technicals, stupidity, and pure emotion. Elliott Wave, and specifically Fibonacci Pinball (developed by Avi Gilburt at elliottwavetrader.net and prominent Seeking Alpha author), merely provide a framework based on the observed price action to date. 7. I know that while my wave outline is based on years and years of data and application from not only me, but some of the best in the game, I also know that markets do not follow a set path and that sentiment can remain irrational far longer than I can remain rational. That is why you MUST consider the alternatives and manage risk appropriately. Know the pivot zones that could lead to the primary path failing. I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors. My analysis is not a recommendation for a specific trade. My analysis outlines a potential scenario and provides risk assessments for multiple alternate scenarios. My analysis is purely educational.
NYSE:SMHIEducation
by mazag08
Coinbase UpdateFriday price saw a move higher just to fall back down. This is either the start of our b wave in a miniscule wave a, or it is wave 4 within the subminuette a wave. It is too early to tell yet, but we can look for clues to guide us in the near term. If we can manage to make another low, it should be minimal and would mean the turquoise count prevailed. Minus a new minimal low being carved out, I anticipate we move higher to the smaller target box above. That would constitute the subminuette b wave. Remember B waves of any degree are unpredictable and aren't required to move that high. That is just the STANDARD place for price to terminate before heading back down. One last thing, the abc pattern of one larger degree has the 1.0 down @ $120.33. Does this mean we will head there for our final move down? It is very possible and something that needs to be watched. One key ingredient to this will be how high this next subminuette b wave raises to. The next levels of fibs created by this move higher will help give clarity / guide us. Don't forget though, Big count is King.
NASDAQ:COIN
by TSuth
6
Bitcoin Roadmap==>Short term!!!Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) touched the 🎯 Targets 🎯 as I expected in the previous post ✅. Bitcoin started to rise well from the Support zone($67,620-$67,000) and the Support line again ( the start was accompanied by good momentum ). Regarding Elliott's wave theory , wave 5 seems to be completed . I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least the Support zone after breaking the Resistance lines . ⚠️Note: The American elections and the tension between Iran and Israel can easily change the scenarios of Bitcoin: if the tension between Iran and Israel increases, we can see the fall of Bitcoin, and if Donald Trump does not succeed in the US presidential election, we can see the fall of Bitcoin. And vice versa.⚠️ Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰. 🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
15
Bitcoin Analysis==>>DUMP==>>Filling GapsBitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is currently moving in the Support zone ($70,100-$68,420) and near the Support line . According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin was able to complete main wave 4 ( although with a little irregular movement ). I expect Bitcoin will break the Support line soon , and the main wave 5 can be finished in one of the Potential Reversal Zones(PRZs) and filling the CME Gaps one by one . Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰. 🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
17
SOLANA → Resistance retest. Will there be a reaction?BINANCE:SOLUSDT , after a strong growth, bumps into the conglomerate of resistances formed on D1-W1. It can be assumed that there is not enough potential to break through this area at the moment.... There is a clear resistance of the sideways range with gradually narrowing borders on the chart. This is a consolidation, which is most likely not over yet. The market continues to accumulate potential before further strong movement. The price reacts very aggressively to the resistance of the figure every time: the retest is followed by a strong decline to the lower boundary. The actual retest ends with a false breakout and the formation of a reversal pattern and the trigger of the 173.00 zone. Accordingly, if the SOL continues to decline, which leads to a breakdown of support, the market may enter a sell-off phase. Resistance levels: 183.4, 188.3 Support levels: 173.0, 159.1 I don't exclude that on the background of bitcoin's active growth SOL may make another attempt of a bull run, for example, to 188.4-188.3. But liquidity formed above this zone will not let the price up the first time. At the moment the focus is on 173.0. A breakdown and consolidation below this area will activate a sell-off... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ BINANCE:SOLUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
20