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PLTR - Earnings pop incoming?I've put a lot of thought into this one. This chart is in log mode as the wide range of prices covered are smoothed and reveal the potential true picture. I give a primary bullish scenario but caveat with multiple different potential outcomes given certain price actions. Trade at your own risk. As you can see, PLTR put in a significant top near the 61.8% retracement of the major move down from January 2021 to January 2023. In linear mode, it's also a 61.8% retracement (not shown on chart) of the September 2021 top from the January 2023 bottom, further confirming how much of a massive resistance level it is. Elliot Wave indicates that this was a 3rd wave in a 5-wave upward impulse. For that to be true, PLTR will need to hold the $12 area if it is going to continue down leading into earnings. Should it hold there, the potential for an earnings pop is at our fingertips. If you look at the 2nd wave of the current 5-wave move up, the same thing happened with earnings there leading to a massive move upward into our very explosive 3rd wave. This leads to our buying opportunity. Should we see PLTR dip below $15 today through Wednesday, October 27th, it would be in the accumulation zone. Set your stop at $12.00 with a GTC-EXT order. This should limit your losses should earnings kickstart a further downward move that breaks support. Assuming the 5th wave does engage, the potential targets are outlined on the chart. I must caveat though that 5th waves are unpredictable. They can terminate before, at, or higher than the general expected levels. In Elliott Wave, usually only one of the 3 impulse waves (1,3, and 5) will see an extension. With 3rd waves usually targeting the 161.8% fib extension level, the 5th wave target is generally expected to be the 200% level. With every 3rd wave extension level, you can usually expect the 5th wave level to rise the same number of extension levels. In this case, the 3rd wave extended and surpassed the 176.4% level, one extension level above the standard, and came shy of the 200% level. So the general minimum expectation for our 5th wave target should be a minimum of the 223.6% level, which comes in at around $25. Given that the 3rd wave already extended, it should not be expected that the 5th wave will also extend. If it somehow does, the upper target is a gap fill from February on 2021 at $31.34. Profit is generally taken at the minimum level with some runners left for potential upside. Should PLTR start rising and form an upward pattern prior to hitting my ideal 4th wave target in the mid $12's, it is possible the 4th wave is already in (or maybe it touches the mid $13's one more time). I will add that the shape and structure of a 4th wave that terminates in the $13's holds a far more likely chance of becoming a a descending triangle where the bottom holds flat and the tops terminate lower until the pattern ends. If this were a triangle, it would be most likely that the next touch of the mid $13's would be the c wave with an e wave to come in the $17 range and the e wave to again target the $13's. Due to the nature of the current structure, I only favor a significant earnings pop should PLTR fall to $13 or lower. Should you see PLTR dip below $12, then the expectation shifts to a major top being in and downward pressure taking this to $10 and potentially lower. Therefore, below $12 range and I recommend getting out and waiting for further clarity. If you hold at a basis higher than the previous top and don't want to sell, consider selling calls to lower your basis or selling $10 puts. The alternate count not shown on this chart would have the May 2021 low as an A wave, the September 2021 top as a B wave, and the January 2023 bottom as the C wave in a larger degree (A)(B)(C) long term corrective pattern. The recent top at the 61.8% level would be the 3-wave (B) wave of this larger degree, with the bottom (C) wave coming in at new lows over the next 1-2 years. This is why the stop is so important. Readers should always remember that markets are their own creature made up of millions of individuals and institutions each following some combo of inherent bullishness, inherent bearishness, fundamentals, technicals, stupidity, and pure emotion. Elliott Wave, and specifically Fibonacci Pinball (developed by Avi Gilburt at elliottwavetrader.net and prominent Seeking Alpha author), merely provide a framework based on the observed price action to date. I know that while my wave outline is based on years and years of data and application from not only me, but some of the best in the game, I also know that markets do not follow a set path and that sentiment can remain irrational far longer than I can remain rational. That is why you MUST consider the altneratives and manage risk appropriately. Know the pivot zones that could lead to the primary path failing. In this case, it's the low $12.00 range. I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors. My analysis is not a recommendation for a specific trade. My analysis outlines a potential scenario and provides risk assessments for multiple alternate scenarios. -mazag08 - TastyWavez 2023
PLong
by mazag08
3
Guide to Recession - What Is It? Recession is a scary word for any country An economic recession occurs when the economy shrinks. During recessions, even businesses close their doors. Even an individual can see these things with his own eyes: 1. People lose their jobs 2. Investment lose their value 3. Business suffers losses Note: The recession is part of an economic cycle. If you haven't read that article, you can check it below: What is the Recession? Two consecutive quarters of back-to-back declines in gross domestic product constitute a recession. The recession is followed by the peak phase. Even if a recession lasts only a few months, the economy will not reach its peak after serval years when it ends. Effect on supply & Demand - The demand for goods decreased due to expensive prices. Supply will keep increasing, and on the other hand, demand will begin to decline. That causes an "excess of supply" and will lead to falling in prices. A recession usually lasts for a short period, but it can be painful. Every recession has a different cause, but they have the main reason for the cause of the recession. What is depression? - A deep recession that persists for a long time eventually leads to depression. During a recession, the inflation rate goes down. How to avoid recession? 1. Monetary Policy - Cut interest rates - Quantitative easing - helicopter money 2: Fiscal policy - Tax Cut - Higher government spending 3: higher inflation target 4: Financial stability Unemployment : We know that companies are healthy in expansion, but there is a saying, "too much of anything can be good for nothing." During peak, The company is unable to earn the next marginal dollar. Companies are taking more risk and debt to reset the growth Not only companies but investors and debtors also invest in risky assets. Why does lay-off occur? After the peak phase, companies are unable to earn the next marginal dollar. Now, the business is no more profitable. CCompaniesstart to reduce their costs to enter into a profitable system. For example - Labour Now, Companies are working with fewer employees. Fewer employees must work more efficiently. Otherwise, they may be lay-off by the company too. You can imagine the workload and pressure. You may argue that they should leave the company! Really? Guys, we just discussed the employment rate declines. How will you get a job when there is no job? Now, you get it! Let's assume the effects of the recession on the common man: Condition 1: He may be laid off. Condition 2: Perhaps he will be forced to work longer hours. The company is unable to maintain a positive outlook. Fewer employees are doing more work due to massive lay-off. His wages decline, and he has no disposable income. As a result, consumption rates are reduced, resulting in lower inflation rates. A slowdown in the economy is caused by lower prices, which decrease profits, resulting in more job cuts. Four Causes of Recession: 1. Economic Shocks 2. Loss of Consumer 3. High-interest rates 4. Sudden stock market crash 1) Economic shocks - When there is an external or economic shock the country faces. For example, COVID-19, 2) Consumer confidence - Negative perception about the economy and the company from consumers who lack confidence in their spending power. Instead of spending, they will choose to save money. As there is no spending, there is no demand for goods and services. The absence of spending results in a lack of demand for goods and services. 3) High-interest rates - High-interest rates will reduce spending. Loans are expensive, so few people take them out. Consumer spending, auto sales, and the housing market will be affected. There can be no good demand if there is no lending. There will be a decline in production. 4) Sudden stock market crash - evade people's trust in the stock market. As a result, they do recall their money and emotion drives them crazy. It can also be considered a psychological factor. As a result, people will not spend money and GDP will decline. Consumer Spending: During the recession, consumers don’t have additional income called disposable income. Consumer spending parts -- Durable goods - Lasts for more than one year -- Non-durable goods - Lasts for less than one year -- Service - Accounting, legal, massage services, etc. Durable goods surfer during the recession. Non-durable goods are recession-proof because their day-to-day fundamentals are not affected by recessions. Let's take an example of two stocks, ABC Food vs ABC car But, will you stop buying food because of the recession? Will you reduce your consumption of toothpaste, bread, and milk? The answer is "NO". Consumers buy the same amount of food in good or bad times, On the other hand, consumers only trade in or trade off their car purchase when they are not only employed but optimistic about the safety of their jobs & confident that they could get a promotion or a high paid job with another employer. And People's disposable income is absorbed during the recession. Consumer spending is the crucial point to displacing recession. Auto sales: As we discussed, few people buy cars during a recession. New car sales count as economic growth. You may have heard about 0% loans. The company facilitates a 0% loan to increase auto sales. Mostly, people repair their cars or buy old cars during the recession. You may see a boost in the used car market and spare parts selling companies’ sales. Home sales/housing markets: I have a question now! Which is your biggest asset? Most of you will say, my home! New home sales are part of economic growth. Also, house price impact how wealthy consumer feel. Higher the home prices, the more they feel rich, and vice versa. When home prices are higher, consumers feel they are wealthy and they are willing to spend. But when house price declines, they reduce spending/consumption. If your biggest asset price declines, you don’t spend and the economy takes a longer time to recover. A higher rate stops increasing the home price because they have to pay more EMI. central bank reduces rates during the recession, and the housing market rate boosts because the loan/EMI is cheap. Interest rates: Generally, interest rates decline during a recession. Central banks cut interest rates that’s why loans become cheap. Benefits of Lower interest rates - - - Boost in the housing market. - - Increase sales of durable goods - - Boost in business investment - - Bonds and interest rates have an inverse relationship. An economic downturn tends to bring investors to bonds rather than stocks, which can perform well in a recession. - - During the recession, interest rates are lower and banks higher the criteria for getting loans, so that people can face the abstracts while lending money. Stock Market: I want to clarify that, the stock market is not an economy. The economic cycle is lagging behind the market cycle and sentiment cycle. It gives me a chill as a technical analyst and a sad moment as an economics lover. Sometimes it's ahead, and sometimes it's behind. Recession = bear market . Recession-Proof Industries: * Consumer staples * Guilty pleasures * Utilities * Healthcare * Information technology * Education I will write about this in the future, but for the time being, let's get back to technical analysis .
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by Money_Dictators
8
$BTC - Bitcoin Jan 2023 AnalysisBINANCE:BTCUSDTPERP Greetings, and Happy New Year to all my fellow Berserkers! Yearly, Monthly, Weekly closes have all just happened. Which will allow us to dive deep into candle analysis as well as EW counts. Lets start with the main count on Bitcoin. (1W log Chart) I've identified a general target zone for the year. The box was drawn based on previous S/R, but when I drew the fib lines, as we can see it also aligns with .333-.382 Fibonacci retracement lines. Which means we have a huge amount of confluence there. 25-26k also seems like a key level to reclaim in order to attain that target. This price constitutes our previous peak after the first descent under 20k. MTF The final piece of info I want to delve into on this chart is the MTF indicator (just below the RSI). There seems to be a weekly fakeup printing there (Gray line moving upwards, alone). But we can also see the blue line curving slightly upwards. So the next week could be very determining in the direction we'll see in January of 2023. Elliot Wave Theory The corrective count is still a bit up in the air. This could very well be a combo (WXY or WXYXZ). The only thing we're pretty sure on is that this is not a Flat for the moment! I've labelled it ABC for simplicity and for the fact that it is the most probably count. My doubts only stem from the difficulty of finding valid downward impulses with diverging 5th waves. Falling wedge/Ending 5th while I typically don't do this, I've drawn the diagonal line from the bottom of wave 3. I'd like to see another touch to the bottom of the wedge support in order to give us a significant boost in PA on the bullish side thereafter.
Long
by FlokiCrypto
1
🎲 Elliott Wave Pattern: Combination 🌊●● Combination ( CMB ): "Double Three" ❗❗ Rules: ● A “double three” combination comprise two corrective patterns separated by one corrective patternin the opposite direction, labeled Ⓧ . The first corrective pattern is labeled Ⓦ , the second Ⓨ . ● A "double three" combination comprises (in order) a single zigzag and a flat, a flat and a single zigzag , a flat and a flat, a single zigzag and a triangle or a flat and a triangle . ● Wave Ⓧ appears as a zigzag or flat. (TWEWA) ● Wave Ⓧ always retraces at least 90 percent of wave Ⓦ . ● Combinations have a sideways look. With respect to waves Ⓦ and Ⓨ in a double three, only one of those waves in each type of combination appears as a single zigzag . ● Combinations can occur in the same wave positions as flats and triangles (except for the triangle subwave) but cannot occur in waves Ⓦ and Ⓨ . ❗ Guidelines: ● Wave Ⓧ is often 123.6-138.2% the Ⓦ wavelength, less often wave Ⓧ retraces 161.8% or more. Don't expect wave Ⓧ to be more than 261.8% of wave Ⓦ . (TWEWA) ● Wave Ⓧ is usually a single or multiple zigzag. ● When a zigzag or flat appears too small to be the entire wave with respect to the preceding wave (or, if it is to be wave ④ , the preceding wave ② ), a combination is likely. ☝ Notes: ● An expanding triangle has yet to be observed as a component of a combination. __________________________ 🔗References: Elliott Wave Principal 2005 Trade Waves / Elliott Waves Analysis (TWEWA) 📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradeWaves-EWA
💨 Elliott Wave Pattern: Single Zigzag 🌊 ❗❗ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨 ● A zigzag always subdivides into three waves. ● Wave Ⓐ always subdivides into an impulse or leading diagonal. ● Wave Ⓒ always subdivides into an impulse or ending diagonal. ● Wave Ⓑ always subdivides into a zigzag, flat, triangle or combination thereof. ● Wave Ⓑ never moves beyond the start of wave Ⓐ . ● Wave Ⓑ always ends within the price territory of wave Ⓐ . ● Wave Ⓒ almost always ends beyond the end of wave Ⓐ . (failure to comply with this requirement is called «truncation»)* *guideline, but should be followed as a rule ❗ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨 ● Wave Ⓒ should not fail to reach the end of wave Ⓐ by more than 10% of the length of wave Ⓐ . (Q&A EWI) ● In a zigzag, the length of wave Ⓒ is usually equal to that of wave Ⓐ , although it is not uncommonly 1.618 or .618 times the length of wave Ⓐ (rarely 2.618). ● Wave Ⓑ typically retraces 38 to 79 percent of wave Ⓐ . ● If wave Ⓑ is a contracting triangle, it will typically retrace 38 to 50 percent of wave Ⓐ . ● If wave Ⓑ is a running contracting triangle, it will typically retrace between 10 and 40 percent of wave Ⓐ . ● If wave Ⓑ is a zigzag, it will typically retrace 50 to 79 percent of wave Ⓐ . ● In a zigzag, if wave Ⓐ is a leading diagonal, then we would not expect to see an ending diagonal for wave Ⓒ . ● A line connecting the ends of waves Ⓐ and Ⓒ is often parallel to a line connecting the end of wave Ⓑ and the start of wave Ⓐ . (Forecasting guideline: Wave Ⓒ often ends upon reaching a line drawn from the end of wave Ⓐ that is parallel to a line connecting the start of wave Ⓐ and the end of wave Ⓑ .) ● Waves Ⓐ and Ⓒ within the zigzag often appear in the form of impulses, but more often alternate according to the type of motive waves: if wave Ⓐ is an impulse, expect wave Ⓒ in the form of a diagonal, and vice versa. It is much less common to find waves Ⓐ and Ⓒ in the form of diagonals, but in this case they will alternate in form: contracting / expanding, and vice versa. (TWEWA) ● If a similar amplitude and duration of waves Ⓐ and Ⓒ within a single zigzag is expected, the line passing through the top of Ⓐ , which is parallel to the line connecting the beginning of wave Ⓐ and the end of wave Ⓑ , often turns out to be the level of completion of wave Ⓒ . In case of a extended wave Ⓐ within a single zigzag, expect the wave Ⓒ to reach the middle line of the channel, and in case of signals in favor of a extended wave Ⓒ , it is worth resorting to the technique of doubling the channel to determine potential support or resistance. (TWEWA) __________________________ 🔗References: Elliott Wave Principal 2005 Trade Waves / Elliott Waves Analysis (TWEWA) 📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradeWaves-EWA
2
RUNE - Are your bags full ? RUNE Weekly here. (linear). Clear bottoming pattern is forming and we're in the final stages of the WXY correction (finishing up the 5th wave of C of Y). I'm really excited about this chart and have been for sometime. The last time I added to my bags was around 1.19. If we make a new low, which is about 50/50 right now, I will add more without hesitation. Once my FSS indicator prints a buy signal, I will also buy adding to my position. After 3 consecutive Sell signals on the 3D, I am anxiously awaiting for it to go green.
Long
by FlokiCrypto
4
Crude Oil Can Stabilze At $70-$72 Markets are slow as most of traders will stay aside today after Thanksgiving yesterday in the US. So we think there will be no real changes in the price action and that market will stay in risk-on mode, at least from a technical perspective. The only thing that can shake the markets a bit going into a next week are potential new COVID restrictions in China after more cases were reported recently. Lower energy prices can also cause some volatility on CAD, NOK, and MXN after Saudi and Iraqi energy ministers said that they will introduce additional measures to ensure stability in the oil market. We see the energy coming down into the fifth wave of decline with some support seen at 72 area where the price may stabilize, at the lower side of a wedge pattern; a leading diagonal in wave A. In fact, weeks back the White House has released a fact sheet that establishes its intention to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when oil prices are between $67 and $72, so yes, the downside can be limited.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ew-forecast
2
Brent Crude Oil - Elliott wave theoryHave we just completed Elliott wave 1 of a crude oil bull market which I would argue started in November 2021 with Pfizer vaccine news?? Others may say it started from June 2020 after the May 2020 crash low touching zero or below briefly. I have a question for viewers if Elliott waves up to 5 does indeed play out again for oil (and commodities in general) how can one have any clue how much time this will take? Please refer to March 1999 (just before dot com crash) through to June 2008 (onset of GFC) Brent crude oil price chart to see how Elliott waves 1, 3 & 5 up-moves happened with waves 2 & 4 corrections.
OLong
by CryptoJoe128
1
Nasdaq Elliott Waves continued.Sorry about this delay, but I am in the middle of a warzone. Anyway, nothing much changed on the elliottwave count other than the fact that the B of C seems to be developing into an expanded flat. My guy feeling is that we have bottomed (too many bears around) and we are poised for a massive flash rally back to, either : 15500/16000 or ATH's (All Time Highs. This would conclude the Cycle B and we can get into a serious bear market. No crashes, if you are counting on that stop dreaming, crashes don't come about like that.
TVC:NDQLong
by csmottola71
EUR/USD - The momentum is still upTwo weeks ago we mentioned that the pair has seen a floor near 1.0400/1.0350 and the counts suggested a potential correction first to 1.0640, 1.0745 and higher to 1.1050. The first two targets have perfectly been reached and the focus now is on 1.105. The momentum is still up, the major resistance lies at 1.0750, above here the market will proceed higher to 1.0820 and 1.0860. We then tolerate a small downward reaction to 1.0640/1.0580 before prices continue heading up to 1.1050.
by Ratio_Trading
GBPJPY Trade Idea - Elliott WaveLet’s discuss the price chart of the GBPJPY currency pair based on the 480 minute timeframe. From the Elliott Wave perspective, GBPJPY has completed a 5 wave impulse up of two degrees, specifically, Minor Wave 5 and Intermediate Wave (5). The price has recently broken below the bullish channel of Minor Wave 5. Most momentum oscillators are also forming a bearish divergence pattern. From the Hurst Cycles perspective, the composite model line which measures the combined cyclical pressure, topped on April 18 (red vertical line), and is projected to form a bottom on June 28. Based on this, we can expect prices to head lower to at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior impulse. This will serve as the first area of support, but price should move beyond this level at some point thereafter to test the 50% Fib retracement level. If you find this analysis useful, make sure to press the “Like” button and Follow us.
Short
by ForexTrainingGroup
BITCOIN licks its wounds - sideways ranging?++++++++++++++++++++++++ no financial advice ++++++++++++++++++++++++ I reproduce my thought processes in detail in the video. Summary: In my eyes it would be logic, if we see now a sideways range. I'll point that out on using my Elliott Analysis, the Bitcoin Log Growth Curve and the Bull Market Support Band. Don't forget to like, follow and comment :) Have fun +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Contact me NOW if you want to have the following: - ✍️ Analyzes every day – crypto and forex - 📈 Our self programmed wavereader – a force in any market - 🗣 Our personal trading setups - 🥇 Education in Elliott Waves, Gann and more (videos and scripts) - 🏆 Discussing trading ideas with our community, that we have trained
INDEX:BTCUSD
by CIGTechnischeAnalyse
8
💨𝙀𝙒 𝙋𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙣: 𝙈𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙕𝙞𝙜𝙯𝙖𝙜🌊●●● 𝙈𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙕𝙞𝙜𝙯𝙖𝙜 (Mult.Z) Keep in mind that an triple zigzag is rare ❗❗ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨 ● A Multiple Zigzag comprise two (or three) single zigzags separated by one (or two) corrective pattern(s) in the opposite direction, labeled X . In the first case, it is called «double zigzag», in the second - «triple zigzag» (The first single zigzag is labeled W , the second Y , and the third, if there is one, Z .) ● Waves W , Y and Z are always single zigzags . ● Wave X never goes beyond the beginning of waves W and Y . ● Wave Y always ends past the end of the W , and wave Z , if any, always ends past the end of the Y . ● The first X wave always ends on the territory of the W wave, the second X , if any, on the territory of the Y wave. ● In a triple zigzag, the first X wave is always a zigzag, flat or combination . The second X wave is always a zigzag, flat , triangle or combination . ● In a double zigzag, wave X is always a zigzag, flat , triangle , or combination . ● Double and triple zigzags replace single zigzags , but cannot appear as W , Y , or Z waves. ❗ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨 ●In a double zigzag, wave Y can equal wave W , .618 wave W , 1.618 wave W , or .terminate at a distance equal to .618 wave W past wave W . In a triple zigzag, there can be equality among waves W , Y and Z , or wave Z can equal .618 wave Y , 1.618 wave Y , or .terminate at a distance equal to .618 wave Y , past wave Y . In a triple zigzag, the Fibonacci relationships between waves W and Y , would be the same as a double zigzag. ● The Fibonacci relationships between waves W and X in a double zigzag, and waves Y and XX in a triple zigzag are analogous to the relationships between waves A and B in a single zigzag . ● In a double zigzag, as a guideline, wave b of wave Y should not break the trendline that connects the beginning of wave W with the end of wave X . ● As a guideline, wave X (second wave X of the triple zigzag) of a double zigzag should break the trend channel formed by the first zigzag in wave W ( Y ) and be greater than 80% of subwave b of wave W ( Y and Z ). ● When a zigzag appears too small to be the entire wave with respect to the preceding wave (or, if it is to be wave 4 , the preceding wave 2 ), the complication of the structure to a multiple zigzag will probably follow. Elliott Wave Principal 2005 and Q&A EWI .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradeWaves-EWA
5