Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG resistance area of 6176.6.Colleagues, it appears that price has not yet completed the upward movement in a five-wave move.
At the moment I expect the continuation of wave “3” and reaching the target in the resistance area of 6176.6.
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Elliotwaveanalysis
₿ BTC: Delay Tactics in Wave B Bitcoin dropped hard yesterday, throwing a wrench into the expected climb toward the top of green wave B. This bounce was supposed to stretch into the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891, which we flagged as a smart area to take partial profits or layer in short hedges. That zone still stands—BTC just isn’t ready to hit it yet. The current pullback suggests we’ll see more sideways-to-lower price action before green wave B wraps up. Once it does, green wave C should drag Bitcoin into the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323. That’s where we’re looking for orange wave a to complete. After that, a countertrend rally in wave b could pop up—before wave c wraps the entire corrective cycle and finishes blue wave (ii). We’re also watching an alt.(i) breakout scenario (30% probability). In that case, BTC would blow through the $130,891 level early, bypassing the expected dip and reaching new highs faster than projected.
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Is Ferrari's stock still bullish?Is Ferrari's stock still bullish?
Technical Outlook
Elliot Wave theory suggests a cautious bullish stance. The present correction seems to be a temporary setback, likely driven by guidance and tariff fears, but sets the stage for a potential rally to $520-$540 if support is not broken. However, risks of a deeper correction (i.e., to $420-$440) persist if pressures from the outside intensify.
The stock is currently trading above all three of its major EMA levels — daily, weekly, and monthly — that is a good technical signal. The rising daily EMA at 479.98 suggests that short-run momentum remains healthy. The weekly EMA at 461.77 provides medium-term support, while the monthly EMA at 421.08 supports the longer-term trend solidly.
Positive Sentiment Factors
Ferrari reported robust Q1 2025 results, with net revenues of €1.79 billion (up 13% YoY), an operating profit of €542 million (up 22.7%), and a net profit of €412 million (up 17%). Adjusted earnings per share were €2.30, surpassing analyst expectations of €2.28. This shows Ferrari’s strong pricing power and demand for personalized vehicles.
Analyst Sentiment: Optimism remains for Ferrari among some analysts. UBS raised its price target to $560 from $520, maintaining a Buy rating, with the new Ferrari Elettrica a major catalyst, the company said. Bernstein and RBC Capital maintained Outperform ratings on the stock at $575 and €500, respectively. Barclays upgraded Ferrari to Overweight, calling it a "safe haven" in a shaky European automotive environment.
Brand Strength and Strategic Positioning: Ferrari’s luxury brand and high demand for models like the Roma Spider, 296 GTS, SF90 XX, and Purosangue bolster its market position.
Neutral Sentiment Factors
Market and Industry Context: The broader market has been volatile due to trade developments and tariff relief rallies. Ferrari’s stock has been influenced by these macroeconomic factors, but its luxury positioning makes it less sensitive than mass-market automakers.
Formula 1 Performance: Ferrari’s underwhelming Formula 1 season, with McLaren significantly outscoring Ferrari in points poses some concern among investors. While this does not directly impact stock performance, it may indirectly affect brand sentiment among enthusiasts.
Negative Sentiment Factors
Tariff Concerns: Ferrari shares have been sensitive to Trump's U.S. tariff policies. A tariff increase would add up to $50,000 to the price of an average Ferrari, potentially cutting sales volumes in the U.S., which accounts for 28.8% of net sales. JPMorgan warned that tariff impacts might be "worse" for Ferrari, lowering the price target to $460 from $525
Conclusion
Ferrari stock has a bullish but cautious bias, supported by solid fundamentals, favorable technical momentum, and positive analyst sentiment on upcoming product releases such as the Ferrari Elettrica. Macro risks, however, including U.S. trade policy and market volatility, are still major overhangs.
BTC: Facing Resistance?Bitcoin recently encountered renewed selling pressure, stalling the anticipated continuation of green wave B. Under the primary scenario, this corrective upward movement should still extend into the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891, where the price is expected to reverse and initiate green wave C. That move should complete with a low in the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323, thereby finalizing orange wave a. Following a corrective advance in wave b, the larger wave (ii) should reach its conclusion. There remains a 30% probability for the alternative scenario, in which BTC pushes above the upper blue Target Zone, establishing a new high in blue wave alt.(i)— which would delay the expected pullback.
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BTC: Maintaining Strength Bitcoin continues to hover around the $105,000 level. In line with the primary scenario, we expect the advance in green wave B to extend toward the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. This zone can be used to lock in partial gains or establish hedges via short positions. From there, a corrective wave C is likely to follow, driving prices lower into the blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323 — marking the end of the larger wave a. A corrective bounce should unfold next, ahead of the final selloff completing blue wave (ii). The alternative scenario, with a 30% probability, envisions a breakout above $130,891 and the establishment of a new high as part of blue wave alt.(i).
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S&P500: Approaching the 88.70% RetracementThe S&P 500 continued its climb, nearing the 88.70% Fibonacci retracement level. The top of magenta wave (B) has not yet been confirmed, so under the primary scenario, we continue to expect further upside into the magenta Target Zone between 5,880 and 6,166. Once that zone is reached, wave (C) is expected to take over and drive the index into the next Target Zone — the green zone between 4,988 and 4,763. Short positions initiated within the upper zone remain viable and can be protected with a stop 1% above the top of the range. The alternative scenario — assigned a 40% probability — assumes the rally will continue directly into wave alt.(III) in blue, with a breakout above the 6,675 resistance. Over the long term, we continue to expect one final impulsive leg higher in blue wave (III) once the broader green wave correction is complete. This should take the S&P 500 well above the 6,166 mark.
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BTCUSD Wave Count: Bitcoin Unfolding Wave ((5)) ?Hello Friends,
Welcome to RK_Chaarts,
Let's analyze the Bitcoin chart today using Elliott Wave theory. As we can see, Bitcoin recently made a high around $112,000 on 23rd May 2025. We've marked this as the completion of Primary Degree Black Wave ((3)). After that, it dropped to complete Wave ((4)) on 31st May 2025. Now, it's moving up, possibly unfolding Wave ((5)). According to Elliott Wave principles, Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1. So, our nearest invalidation level is the 31st May's low at $103000. If the price sustains above this level, we can expect it to move towards $115,000 as a Projected Target of wave ((5)). However, if it breaks below the invalidation level, we'll need to re-analyze the wave counts. We've also drawn some trend lines, marked in black dotted lines, which act as support and resistance. This is a 1-hour time frame chart. The red line marking the nearest invalidation level is crucial. If it breaks, we'll need to adjust our wave counts. If it holds, we can expect the price to move up towards $115,000. Let's see how the market unfolds. Please note that this is an educational analysis and not a trading tip or advice.
Analysis Summary
- Analyzing Bitcoin chart using Elliott Wave theory to understand market trends and potential price movements.
- Recent high around $112,000 on 23rd May 2025, & Recent Low around $103,000 on 31st May 2025 indicates a significant turning point in the market.
Wave Count
- Completed Primary Degree Black Wave ((3)) suggests a major uptrend has concluded.
- Completed Wave ((4)) on 31st May 2025 indicates a correction phase has ended.
- Possibly unfolding Wave ((5)) implies a new uptrend may be emerging.
Key Levels
- Nearest invalidation level: 31st May's low at $103,000 serves as a crucial support level.
- Projected Target: $115,000 represents a potential upside target based on Elliott Wave principles.
Elliott Wave Principles
- Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1: a key rule governing wave relationships.
- Wave ((5)) projection based on Fibonacci ratios and wave extensions.
Chart Details
- 1-hour time frame chart provides a detailed view of recent price action.
- Trend lines marked in black dotted lines highlight key support and resistance levels.
- Red line marking nearest invalidation level is crucial for validating the wave count.
Important Notes
- Breaking below the invalidation level would require re-evaluation of the wave count.
- Sustaining above the invalidation level increases confidence in the projected target.
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My studies are for educational purpose only.
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Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Silver ready to outperform Gold? Finally, silver is breaking to the upside out of the April–May consolidation, and so far there’s been a strong push above the 33.70 resistance, and with the market closing well above that level, it confirms that bulls remain in control and could stay in charge after any near-term dips. Ideally, we are now in the third leg of recovery, which could extend beyond the October 2024 highs around 34.87. Once that level is cleared, the third leg may continue higher within a higher degree wave five, possibly targeting the 36–37 zone.
At the same time, we also see the gold-silver ratio coming down from the 61.8% area, which is another signal suggesting the metals are in a broader bull run, with silver now likely to outperform gold until those 36–37 targets are reached.
Grega
AVAX: Low in Sight?AVAX continued its expected decline into the magenta Target Zone between $24.42 and $13.31, before reversing course over the weekend with a modest bounce. While it's possible that this marked the low of the wave ii correction, we're not ruling out the potential for another dip within the zone. For now, the setup remains open-ended. Once orange wave ii has been confirmed as complete, we expect a strong rally to follow in wave iii, likely driving the price beyond resistance at $49.95.
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BTC: Still in the Grip of Wave BBitcoin is holding steady near the same levels seen at the time of yesterday’s update — and so is the structure. According to our primary scenario, we expect the current corrective wave B to complete soon within the blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. Once that happens, a wave C selloff should follow, likely targeting the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323. That said, our alternative scenario (30% probability) remains intact. In that case, the high of blue wave (i) has yet to form — a breakout above $130,891 would confirm that view and open the door to further upside before a correction resumes.
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ADA is going to catch big targetsWe are currently experiencing a Wave 2 correction after completing an impulsive Wave 1. Once the ABC correction is complete, we can expect to enter an impulsive Wave 3. As time goes on, if it seems like we are entering Sub-Wave 1 of Wave 3, I will publish an idea to outline new targets. For now, we should anticipate new movements in the market.
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 58.00.Colleagues, the previous forecast did not meet expectations for too long, and the price has been in a prolonged sideways movement.
In this regard, I decided to slightly revise the waves and make a new forecast.
At the moment, I believe that the price will resume its downward movement in the medium-term wave “3.” The complex configuration of the correction makes it difficult to fully understand whether it is a combined correction or a five-wave movement.
In either case, I expect the price to reach the support area of 58.00.
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EUR/USD Forecast: Impulse Wave Progressing TowardThe EUR/USD is currently exhibiting a well-defined impulsive structure following the completion of a corrective (ABC) phase. The market has successfully formed waves (1) and (2), and is now advancing within wave (3), which typically carries the most momentum in an Elliott Wave cycle.
The ongoing rally suggests wave (3) is targeting the 1.15350 level — a key Fibonacci projection area that aligns with previous structural resistance. Momentum remains strong, supported by bullish market structure and sustained buying pressure.
Should wave (3) conclude near this zone, a brief corrective pullback into wave (4) is anticipated, likely retracing toward the 1.14440–1.14730 support range. This would offer a potential entry opportunity before the market resumes its higher trajectory in wave (5), targeting the 1.16077 level.
T1: 1.14857
T2: 1.15090
SL: 1.13867
BTC: Slowing DownBitcoin managed to stabilize over the weekend after its recent slide, nudging slightly higher from local lows. We continue to expect the current rebound—interpreted as wave B—to stretch into the blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. Once that move tops out, the next leg lower should follow, with wave C driving the price into the lower blue zone between $62,395 and $51,323. That would likely complete wave a in orange and pave the way for a temporary recovery before wave b rolls over into the final drop of wave (ii). The alternative scenario, which we’re still assigning a 30% probability, assumes Bitcoin is already in wave alt.(i) in blue—a more bullish path that would extend the rally well beyond $130,891 without another major correction first.
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Mastercard: Approaching the Top of Wave BMastercard has rebounded after a brief cooling period, and we now expect turquoise wave B to complete just below resistance at $620. Once that top is in, wave C should drive a meaningful retracement, ending with the low of magenta wave (4). Alternatively, if turquoise wave alt.(4) has already bottomed — which we estimate as a 40% probability — then a direct breakout above $620 would suggest a shift toward a much more aggressive advance. That path would take the stock straight into magenta wave (5), completing blue wave (I) with a strong rally.
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PIXELUSDTThe outcome of this analysis is that based on the structure of a zero - D wave, which may be a pig or triangle, or even a pig, we should look for the optimal areas to buy Spot …
In the event that this analysis is correct, it may be ideal to purchase Spot in the vicinity of Beijing to the tribes.
A cautious target for the Chinese outbreak and a more risky target could be a dollar casualty.
In time terms too, mid - June and more accurately the beginning of the third week of June would be the ideal approximate time for the start of the DC wave …
As indicated in the chart late July and early September are important times in the chart that will probably work depending on the structure and my guess is that the mentioned times are the ideal time for the end of the larger D - wave …
Link Analysis (12H)Chainlink (LINK) Technical Outlook – Elliott Wave Perspective
After applying Elliott Wave Theory, the chart appears to speak for itself — the downward corrective phase seems to have concluded.
Zooming into lower timeframes, there are several bullish signs suggesting that LINK is primed for an upward move.
Key Technical Reasons Supporting Upside Potential:
Bullish Flag Formation: A clear flag pattern has formed in lower time frames, and LINK is currently testing its resistance level.
Elliott Wave Count: Based on wave structure, Wave 3 appears to be nearing completion. Should we see a short-term pullback, it would likely be Wave 4, offering a strong buy opportunity around the support zone of the flag.
Fib Confluence: The potential retracement aligns perfectly with the 50% Fibonacci level — a typical target area for Wave 4 corrections.
Two Possible Scenarios:
Immediate Breakout: With support from Bitcoin’s continued momentum, LINK could extend its current Wave 3 and break out from the flag without any significant pullback.
Healthy Correction: Alternatively, LINK could retrace to the 50% Fib level before initiating the final leg of Wave 5 — providing a textbook buying opportunity.
Target:
In both scenarios, the upside target remains the same: $18.00 to $18.40 range.
— Thanks for reading.
SUI (Daily) Elliot wave ii underwaySUI appears to have completed a motif wave (1) with an ending diagonal after finding a bottom at the major support high volume node (HVN) macro wave 4.
Wave 2 has not retraced as deep as other alt coins showing strength in the move up. The downside target is the HVN it has just tested at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement $2.95.
Wave 3 should be a powerful move up taking price into all time high.
Failure to hold this support could see price heading back to fresh lows and testing the $1.6 HVN once more.
Safe trading
SOL Local Elliot Wave ii UnderwaySolana appears to have completed a motif wave 1 after finding a bottom at the major support high volume node (HVN) macro wave 4.
Wave 2 has not retraced as deep as other alt coins showing strength in the move up. The downside target is the HVN at $140 at the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement.
Wave 3 should be a powerful move up taking price into all time high.
Failure to hold this support could see price heading back to fresh lows and testing the $90 HVN once more.
Safe trading
ONDO (Daily) Elliot Wave ii UnderwayONDO appears to have completed a leading diagonal for wave 1 after finding a bottom at the major support high volume node (HVN).
Wave 2 has retraced to the expected alt coin Golden Pocket at the 78.6% retracement tapping high volume node.
The descending resistance line has been tested as support leaving a dragonfly doji but does not look strong enough to be the bottom yet.
Wave 3 should be a powerful move up.
This analysis is invalidated below macro wave 2 -$0.65
Safe trading
HBAR (Local) Elliot Wave ii UnderwayHBAR appears to have completed a leading diagonal for wave 1 after finding a bottom at the major support high volume node (HVN).
Wave 2 has retraced the expected 61.8% Fibonacci but alt coins have their own Golden Pocket at the 78.6% retracement which aligns with the S1 pivot and high volume node.
The descending resistance line has been tested as support leaving a doji but does not look strong enough to be the bottom yet.
Wave 3 should be a powerful move up.
This analysis is invalidated below macro wave 4 -$0.12556
Safe trading