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Charting with Elliott WavesUnderstanding how to do Technical Analysis of any chart based on Elliott Waves This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice. Multiple scenarios are possible in the real market, and there is a risk of being wrong. It is essential to consult with a financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. We are not responsible for any profits or losses incurred based on this analysis. Wave Rules: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1. Wave 3 is never the shortest wave. Wave 4 should not overlap with Wave 1's price territory, except in diagonal triangles. Applying Elliott Wave Theory Elliott Wave Theory is a powerful tool for traders, but it requires practice and a deep understanding of market psychology. By analyzing wave patterns, degrees, and Fibonacci relationships, traders can gain insights into potential market trends and make informed trading decisions. It is important to combine Elliott Wave analysis with other technical indicators and risk management strategies to enhance the accuracy and reliability of market forecasts. Elliott Wave Theory provides a comprehensive framework for understanding market cycles and predicting price movements. By mastering its principles and applying them with discipline, traders can enhance their ability to navigate the financial markets and capitalize on emerging trends. Let's understand study of this chart Current Wave Structure Primary Wave Count: - The chart illustrates a completed five-wave impulse sequence (1-2-3-4-5) followed by a corrective phase. - The primary impulse wave (labeled in red) has completed its cycle, marked by a significant peak at Wave 5. - The subsequent corrective wave (labeled in blue as (4)) has also completed, indicating a potential beginning of a new impulse sequence. Subwave Count: - The internal structure of the primary waves shows clear subwaves, especially within the third wave, which is typically the strongest and longest. - The chart depicts detailed labeling of smaller degree waves (i-ii-iii-iv-v), ensuring adherence to Elliott Wave principles. Recent Breakout Analysis Breakout Confirmation: - Recently, the price has broken out from a consolidation zone, supported by increased trading volumes. This is a positive sign indicating strong market interest and momentum. - The breakout occurred after the price retested the previous resistance level, which now acts as a support. This successful retest enhances the credibility of the breakout. Future Projections Impulsive Bias: - Based on the wave structure, the stock appears to be in the early stages of a new impulse wave. This suggests a bullish outlook with potential for significant upward movement. - The immediate target for this impulse wave is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at INR 2,976.60, aligning with typical Elliott Wave projections for Wave 3. Invalidation Level: - The nearest invalidation level for this bullish scenario is marked at INR 1,651.40. A break below this level would suggest a re-evaluation of the wave count and the current bullish bias. Conclusion The technical analysis of Dalmia Bharat Ltd. indicates a favorable outlook for continued upward movement, supported by a clear Elliott Wave structure and recent breakout confirmation with good volume. However, traders should monitor the invalidation level closely. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NSE:DALBHARATEducation
by RK_Chaarts
Navigating the Waves: Piramal Enterprises Technical StudyTechnical Analysis of Piramal Enterprises (NSE: PEL) This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Overview Piramal Enterprises has shown a promising breakout with significant volume, indicating strong bullish momentum. The Elliott Wave analysis also suggests a positive structure, pointing towards potential further gains. Elliott Wave Analysis Wave 1: The stock completed its first impulse wave (1) near 1,140 INR. Wave 2: The corrective wave (2) concluded around 735.85 INR. Wave 3: The ongoing wave is expected to be an impulse wave 3, targeting higher levels. Current Structure - The stock has completed the corrective wave C of (2) and is now in the early stages of wave 3. - The recent breakout above the black trendline suggests the start of wave (i) of 3, supported by increasing volume, adding to the bullish sentiment. Key Levels - Current Price: 977.85 INR - Nearest Invalidation Level: 905.00 INR - Major Invalidation Level: 630.45 INR Targets - Elliott wave suggests ahead wave 3 first levels (1.0 Fibonacci Extension of Wave 1): 1,246.00 - Elliott wave suggests ahead wave 3 ideal level (1.618 Fibonacci Extension of Wave 1): 1,561.25 Conclusion Piramal Enterprises has provided a strong breakout backed by volume, aligning well with the Elliott Wave theory. The structure indicates a continuation of the uptrend with potential targets at 1,246 INR and 1,561.25 INR. The nearest invalidation level is at 905 INR, with a major invalidation level at 630.45 INR. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NSE:PEL
by RK_Chaarts
Polyplex Corp: Analyzing Wave (5) Projection and SupportTechnical Analysis of Polyplex Corporation Ltd. Elliott Wave Counts and Structure The chart illustrates a possible Elliott Wave count on a weekly time frame, identifying key waves and corrective patterns. Here’s a detailed breakdown: 1. Primary Wave Structure: - The chart shows an unfolding five-wave impulsive structure, with Waves (1) through (4) completed, indicating a bullish phase followed by corrective waves. - Wave (1) is observed in November 2010, and Wave (2) is identified around September 2013. - Wave (3) peaks significantly higher than Wave (1), indicating a strong bullish phase, and completes near April 2022. - Waves 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 within Wave (3) are clearly marked, showing the internal structure of this impulsive wave. 2. Corrective Waves: - After the peak of Wave (3), the chart illustrates a complex corrective pattern labeled as W-X-Y-X-Z. - This correction appears to end at Wave (4), indicating the start of a new potential impulsive wave (Wave (5)). - The corrective waves show significant price declines, characteristic of Elliott Wave corrections. 3. Current Scenario and Target: - The current price action suggests the initiation of Wave (5). - The target for Wave (5) is projected to be above the high of Wave (3), which is near 2880 INR. - An upward arrow indicates the bullish outlook, projecting the price towards this target level. 4. Invalidation Level: - An invalidation level is marked at 751. If the price falls below this level, the current Elliott Wave count and bullish scenario would be invalidated. - This level acts as a critical support, below which the wave count may need to be re-evaluated. Summary and Considerations - Bullish Outlook: The primary analysis suggests a bullish wave (Wave (5)) is underway, targeting levels above the previous high of 2880. - Key Support: The invalidation level at 751 is crucial for maintaining the bullish scenario. - Risks: As noted in the disclaimer, Elliott Wave Theory involves multiple possibilities and inherent risks. It's important to consider this analysis as one potential scenario. Investors and traders should consult with financial advisors and consider broader market conditions, as well as other technical indicators, before making investment decisions based on this analysis. This analysis provides an educational perspective on using Elliott Wave Theory for Polyplex Corporation Ltd. and highlights the importance of monitoring critical price levels to validate the wave counts. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NSE:POLYPLEXLong
by RK_Chaarts
4
Elliott Wave (3) Awakening: Laxmi Organic Industries Ltd.Laxmi Organic Industries Ltd. has completed wave (1) in blue Intermediate degree on the weekly chart from its inception till the peak in September 2021. Wave (2) has completed at the bottom in June 2024. We are now possibly starting to unfold wave (3) in blue Intermediate degree on the weekly chart, which is generally a strong impulse wave. Wave (3) Characteristics and Strength: - Strong Impulse: Wave (3) is typically the most powerful and extended wave in the Elliott Wave cycle, characterized by strong price movements and high trading volumes. - Fibonacci Extension Target: The ideal target for wave (3) is the 161.8% extension of wave (1). Using the Trend-based Fibonacci Extension tool, this projects a price target near 1000. - Subdivisions: Wave (3) is expected to subdivide into five smaller waves (minor degree), each representing a smaller impulse move within the larger wave. Current Price Action: - Current Price: 265 - Key Levels: - Invalidation Level: 220 (last swing low) - Breakout Confirmation: 277 (a break and close above this level will confirm the start of wave (3)) Technical Indicators: - Bullish Divergence: At the bottom in June 2024, double bullish divergence was observed, signaling potential reversal. - Dow Theory Confirmation: We are waiting for the first higher high and higher low formation to confirm the bullish impulse. This pattern will strengthen the case for wave (3) initiation. Risk-Reward Ratio: - Risk: Very low, with the stop-loss set at the invalidation level of 220. - Reward: Potentially huge, with a target of 1000 or more, aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (1). - Risk-Reward Ratio: Excellent, considering the low risk and high reward potential. Trading Strategy: - Entry Point: Consider entering a position now while the price is at 265, with a stop-loss at 220. - Confirmation Entry: A more conservative entry can be made once the price breaks and closes above 277. Conclusion: Laxmi Organic Industries Ltd. appears to be in the early stages of wave (3) in blue Intermediate degree. Given the characteristics of wave (3) and the current technical setup, this presents an attractive trading opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio. Monitoring the price action for a break above 277 will provide further confirmation of the bullish impulse wave. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NSE:LXCHEMLong
by RK_Chaarts
10
DAX, will this be the end of the bullish cycle wave?Hallo everyone, markets are crazy lately and beside the fact, that Germany is in a recession period the DAX were climbing up for several ATHs in the last weeks. I think this should find an end very soon, as we are testing the ultimate resistance area formed by trend lines from ATH prices in the past. Also my wave count is pointing to an fifth wave of a fifth wave. 18000 will be a psychological barrier I don't expect the price to go over easily and we are facing the 1,618 extension level from the last wave at around 17700. I will work with several positions starting from 17700 up to 18000.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by Kyrean
5
Elliott Wave: Nvidia pullsback ahead of earnings Hey all. Markets can see some volatile price action today, because of the release of FOMC minutes, when investors will look for any new details or change in tone regarding FED's policy. But then, after the US close speculators will be focused on Nvidia earning reports. This data can be important, not only for stock it self, but also for the technology sector and bitcoin as well. We will see how market react, but from an Elliott wave perspective market can still be in a corrective pullback, rather than making a topping pattern. Lets see. Grega
NASDAQ:NVDA
by ew-forecast
Elliott Waves: Natural Gas case study Overview: Since the significant bottom in June 2020, Natural Gas embarked on a compelling journey, forming a fresh impulse that concluded around the highs of August 2022 as Wave I in the Cycle Degree. The subsequent phase witnessed a corrective move, labeled as Wave II on the weekly timeframe, comprising three subdivisions: ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)). The current focus is on the ongoing Wave ((C)) on the Daily timeframe, expected to unfold in five subdivisions: (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5). Within this framework, Wave (1) to (4) are complete, and attention now turns to the unfolding of Wave (5) on the Four-Hourly timeframe. Current Structure: On the Four-Hourly timeframe, Natural Gas is in the process of forming Wave (5), consisting of Wave 1, 2, and the ongoing development of Wave 3. The details of Wave 3 are further observed on the Hourly timeframe as finished wave ((i)) & ((ii)) and now possibly we are unfolding Wave ((iii)) of 3 of (5) of ((C)) of II. Elliott Wave Principles: Corrective Structure: Wave II is corrective, manifesting as a complex correction with three subdivisions, labeled ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)). Impulse Formation: The primary upward movement from June 2020 to August 2022 represents an impulse, characterized by a sequence of five waves. Subdivision Details: Each wave and subdivision unfolds according to Elliott Wave principles, maintaining the structural integrity of the overall pattern. Learning Points: Analyzing Market Cycles: Elliott Wave Analysis serves as a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of markets, providing insights into the psychology of both buyers and sellers. Trend Anticipation: Corrective waves within the Elliott Wave framework offer a strategic opportunity to foresee potential trends—whether they signify a resumption or reversal of the existing trend. Elliott Wave Analysis is a tool to decipher market cycles, offering insights into the psychological dynamics of buyers and sellers. Corrective waves provide an opportunity to anticipate trend resumption or reversal. The principle of non-overlapping waves helps identify the structure of the market move. Validation and Risk Management: The integrity of this Elliott Wave structure is contingent on Wave II not surpassing the low of Wave I, identified at $1.440. A breach of this level would invalidate the current wave count. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by RK_Chaarts
20
Wave-by-Wave Adventure, US Dollar UnpluggedDecoding the US Dollar Index: Navigating Wave (V) with Thrills Since the economic tumult of 2008, the US Dollar Index DXY (USDX) has been on a captivating journey, tracing significant waves on its chart. As of now, it stands on the precipice of unfolding the final leg of this larger movement, marked as the thrilling wave (V) on the weekly chart. Weekly Chart Adventure: Wave (I), (II), (III), and (IV): Conquered. Wave (V): The adventure is just beginning. Daily Chart Expedition: Inside the thrilling wave (V), wave I, II, and III have been epic conquests. Currently navigating the challenging wave IV, a terrain of correction. 4-Hourly Chart Odyssey: Within the tumultuous wave IV, ((A)), ((B)), and the unfolding ((C)). Inside ((C)), embarking on subdivisions: ((a)), ((b)), and the imminent thrill of ((c)). Thrilling Wave Principles: Witness a double correction, an unexpected twist in the daily chart's narrative. The ongoing correction within wave IV on the 4-hourly chart involves a complex W-X-Y pattern, adding an unexpected thrill. According to the pulse-pounding Elliott Wave Theory, wave (2) should not retrace more than 100% of wave (1). Current Pulse: ((a)) of ((C)) is reaching its climax, with the suspenseful unfolding of ((b)) and the highly anticipated ((c)) yet to grip our attention. Critical Invalidation Level: 107.335 (A point of no return, a daring move beyond 100% retracement of wave (1) inside ((C))). Please Note: This analysis is not just a journey; it's a heart-racing adventure crafted for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. Get ready for more twists and turns as we navigate the thrilling waves ahead...!! I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
TVC:DXY
by RK_Chaarts
2
$BABA COORECTED ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS In my Elliott Wave analysis of BABA, I've observed a corrective pattern since its inception, with the peak occurring during the 2020 bull market. The correction seemed to have ended when BABA hit bottom in 2022. Following this, it appeared to start a new upward wave (wave 1), followed by a corrective phase (wave 2), which now seems to be complete. It's important to note that the placement of the other waves is solely for identification purposes and does not indicate any specific targets. This suggests that BABA could be gearing up for a bullish wave 3, making it quite promising for the long term.
NYSE:BABALong
by thekidtrader11
3
India Cements Should be soon above the INR 300 mark.The cement stocks have had a great 2023 and many are looking to carry the run forward into 2024 as well. India Cements was spotted displaying a minor Wave I from Nov 1 till Dec 14.In this wave the stock swiftly moved 35% up in a short time of 1.5months Wave II was a 38.2% retracement of the wave I. Between Dec 21 and Jan 4 the stock completed a leading diagonal which is the first leg to the bigger Wave III anticipated in the stock. The wave III target is projected at INR 325-340 zone and the stock should be expected to gain a strong momentum in coming days once it closes decisively above the INR 275 mark. On the down INR 245 could be considered for a "SL".
NSE:INDIACEMLong
by neeraj_2_sharma
Decoding USDINR with Elliott Waves: A Comprehensive AnalysisDecoding USDINR with Elliott Waves: A Comprehensive Analysis Weekly Perspective: Daily Perspective: 4 Hourly Perspective: Hourly Perspective: Current Stage: Inside iv of (c) of 2 of ((1)) of wave V of wave (III). Current Bias: Presently showing a bearish inclination on the hourly chart. Future Outlook: Post the completion of wave (c) of 2 , a potential swing towards the north is anticipated. Invalidation Level: Post starting journey towards north Strictly set at the recent swing low of (c) of 2, serving as a critical point for the bearish bias. If breached, it might prompt a re-evaluation of wave counts on the hourly time frame. Elliott Wave Concept: Elliott Wave Theory proposes that market prices unfold in specific patterns, providing insights into potential future price movements. It identifies waves of various degrees, each with its own subdivisions, illustrating the cyclical nature of market psychology. Corrections, labeled as 2 or (b), are temporary pauses in the prevailing trend before the larger trend resumes. Validation of Elliott Wave counts often comes from adhering to strict rules and guidelines, including confirmation of trend reversals and respecting key invalidation levels. Conclusion: The USDINR pair, as per Elliott Wave analysis, is currently navigating a complex pattern with bearish signals on the hourly chart. However, the prospect of an upcoming swing towards the north is plausible post the completion of wave 2. Traders are advised to closely monitor the invalidation level as it holds the key to potential shifts in the Elliott Wave counts. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
by RK_Chaarts
14
Regardless of your bias, trade cautiously...Honestly, I do not think the correction is over, I think we may see near Covid prices again... The lack of a "covid wick" on the monthly is the biggest giveaway to me. I must admit, my macro has errors and therefore, can only trade my micro, however, at the end of this set we could really dump. I know Bulls are calling for buys at 28k, but honestly, with the uncertainty I can see in the market (Triangles within corrections), who knows how deep that could go, and it will only be a Wave 1 going down... On retracement, everyone that missed the sell will offload for profits starting Wave 3... This is an opinion, based on my TA. I may be wrong. I do not care if I am, I will protect my wealth regardless, you do you. I am currently long, so short term BTC goes up. However, on the daily, two of four criteria to indicate the top have been met. Regardless of your bias, protect your positions at the end of this set. I can honestly say I have no idea what will actually happen. Safe Trading.
BNC:BLXShort
by JMSBurton
2
BTC Thesis—October 2023First Published: October 5, 2023 Disclaimer: Please be aware that the information provided in this post is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets carries inherit risk, always conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Thesis Statement: The primary objective of our monthly BTC Thesis is to deliver comprehensive Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) analysis, free from external influences or biases, to determine overall market sentiment. Through meticulous examination of the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily time frames using EWT, our analysis aims to identify key levels for potential Monthly candle highs and lows. This post caters primarily to traders seeking unbiased, EWT based evidence to support their own analysis, empowering them to make well informed trading decisions. Introduction and Overview: Welcome to our October 2023 BTC Thesis, where we provide a meticulous EWT analysis, free from external influences, to decode the fractal nature of EWT and pinpoint significant trading opportunities. Our primary focus is on identifying the potential Monthly Candle high and/or low. In this analysis, we emphasize a bearish sentiment, as BTC currently undergoes a Wave 4 correction—notably an Expanded Flat. Our EWT count unveils a rare trading opportunity, the likelihood that the Monthly Candle high aligns with the bottom of Intermediate Wave 2 within the final Wave of this correction. Throughout, we stress the importance of a precise 5 Wave count down that will complete Wave C of the Cycle and the overall correction. The tone is clear: we anticipate further downside potential, urging caution and patience as we wait for the Wave formation to fully form. Macro Analysis: Our Macro Analysis begins on the Monthly time frame, delving into the rich history of price action data available on the BLX chart. EWT, known for its fractal nature, reveals a continuous wave formation, with Wave 1 of the largest degree always evolving. Currently, price action is navigating Wave 4 of the Super Cycle. Notably, Wave 3 of the Super Cycle commenced in November 2011 and featured an extended Wave 3, and, Wave 5, terminating in an Ending Diagonal, implying the potential complexity of this Wave 4 correction. We confidently identify the ongoing correction as an Expanded Flat, validated by Wave B surpassing the completion of Wave 5 and Wave C surpassing the completion of Wave A. Price action for Wave 4 typically will retrace between between the Yellow 0.236 and 0.382 FIB levels indicated on the chart. Wave Form Analysis: Transitioning from monthly analysis, we maintain our focus on the ongoing Wave 4 correction. As we inspect the Weekly time frame, the fundamental 3-3-5 Wave form of an Expanded Flat becomes evident, sparking discussions about what we have marked as the completion of Wave 3 within this correction. While there is a case to be made for a completed 5 Wave move down from the top of Wave B to the November, 2022 bottom, further analysis on the Daily time frame will be required to establish and validate a micro count. Confluence between price action on the broader Monthly chart, where the absence of observable complete 5 wave moves suggests that the overall structure remains incomplete. It is vital to underscore that an immediate reversal signal, similar the notable 'COVID dip,' remains absent, further strengthening the notion that the correction is still in progress. Additionally, current Wave 5 targets indicated by the Yellow -0.236 FIB level displayed on the Weekly chart have not been met. Micro Analysis: Transitioning from the Wave Form analysis, our primary focus is to establish a correct and valid count from the top of Wave B on the Daily time frame. This count is vital in determining whether the 5-wave move down, forming Wave C, has reached completion. Starting from the top of Wave B in November 2022, we can clearly identify a 5-wave move leading to the January 2022 bottom, completing Primary Wave 1. Primary Wave 2, formed a Triangle correction completing on the March 2022 top. Primary Wave 3 unfolded with an extended Intermediate Wave 3, completing on the June 2022 bottom. Intermediate Wave 4 formed a Complex EWT Combination Correction that concluded on the November 2022 top, which marked the start of Intermediate Wave 5. Intermediate Wave 5 completed on the November 2022 bottom completing Primary Wave 3, and establishing a count invalidation number at the top of Primary Wave 1. Despite Primary Wave 4 retracing deeper than average, it remained within the boundaries of valid price action, the count invalidation number, and adhered to the principles of the Law of Alternation, forming a simple Zig Zag correction, juxtaposed to the Triangle correction of Primary Wave 2. Price action has indicated Primary Wave 5 has commenced, as such, a Micro Count Invalidation number can be established on the July 2023 top. Presently, a validated five-wave move has been counted, descending from the July 2023 top, marking the completion of Intermediate Wave 1 within Primary Wave 5. Our assumption is that price action currently resides within Intermediate Wave 2, of Primary Wave 5, of Cycle Wave C, of Super Cycle Wave 4. Outlook: Upon the completion of Wave 2, typically at the Blue 0.618 FIB Level indicated on the Daily time frame, an immediate retracement is expected as price action transitions into Wave 3. It is anticipated that this reversal will contribute to the formation of the wick on the top of the monthly candle. While standard levels of expected price action are presented on the Daily time frame, it's crucial to acknowledge that Intermediate Wave 5 targets do not align with Primary Wave 5 targets, or, Super Cycle Wave 4 targets, suggesting the potential for an extended Intermediate Wave 3, and, Primary Wave 5. Conclusion: Our monthly BTC Thesis has provided comprehensive EWT analysis, providing traders and enthusiasts with an unbiased, EWT based understanding of BTC price action. This analysis, spanning the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily time frames, has been dedicated to identifying significant levels for the potential Monthly candle high, catering primarily to traders seeking EWT based evidence to support their trading decisions.
BNC:BLXShort
by JMSBurton
9