Tesla’s price has doubled in six weeks, where to from here?Back in October, we made an outlandish call for Tesla to more than halve and fall from $220 down to $100. Four months later, we are both delighted and somewhat saddened to see it came to fruition almost perfectly (although technically it only fell to $101.81, leaving out bear call out of pocket by $1.81 per share). It was nothing personal against the company or Elon, but we simply looked at the data and hypothesised an idea based it. So where is Tesla to go from here?
Incidentally, the stock is almost right back where it was in October and trades at $202.35, having more than doubled and rallied 113.8% in just six weeks.
Tesla (TSLA) weekly chart :
We can see on the weekly chart that the rally from $100 has been string and in a relatively straight line, and volumes rose to a two-year high to show fresh buyers entered the market and bears closed out. However, we’re approaching the broken neckline which could potentially prompt a pullback (or a consolidation), but the strong volume and price action suggests it could eventually break above it.
And whilst a bearish hammer formed two weeks ago, it was followed by a bullish engulfing week with higher volume to show demand at these highs. Therefore, a break below 187.61 assumes a pullback, but bulls may be interested in loading above this key level for a move to the neckline around $225.
Tesla (TSLA) daily chart:
The daily chart shows a small pullback within the range of a bullish engulfing candle at the highs. A small bullish hammer formed yesterday for a potential higher low above last week’s low, and the daily engulfing candle. After-hours trade also see it trade slightly higher. Also note that the 20 and 100-day EMA’s sit perfectly on last week’s low, making $187.61 an important support level for bulls to defend. RSI (14) remain positive above 50, so we’re looking for another burst higher on the daily chart.
• The bias on the daily chart is bullish above $187.60
• We anticipated a move towards the $220 - $225 area (along the neckline, depending on how quickly it gets there), where we may then see a pullback from the broken neckline
• Keep in mind the November high around $237.4 which could also cap gains over the near-term
• A break below $187.60 assumes a deeper correction, where we’d then look for evidence of a swing low around a Fibonacci number or the ‘gap support’ zone’ (at which point reconsider longs, in line with weekly volume and momentum)
ELON-MUSK
FLOKII think this one in the long term might actually be able to do something for a percentile gain..
Think of Shibu but with more hype.
Kimbel Musk is on board with this project, Elon's brother. It's connected to gaming.
I have a small bag of this one.
Beware, this one will get clubbed when BTC continues to sell off once again, I'll mainly be interested in the fact if it can hold this basing stage below in the dark highlighted black lines.
Who Let The DOGE Out!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
After rejecting the 0.07 support and breaking above the last high in gray, DOGE has been overall bullish trading inside the red rising broadening wedge pattern.
DOGE is currently sitting around the lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
If we break above the last minor high in red, we will be expect a trend continuation .
Then, we will need to break above the last major high in orange for the bulls to take full control again and push higher till around 0.11 resistance.
Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, DOGE can still trade lower, especially if we break below the red trendline. In this case, we will be looking for new buy setups as we approach the support zone again.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Tesla - What's next?Tesla has been rejected off of the clear resistance trendline in red. This means it likely needs additional consolidation before breaking through; opening up a retrace lower to the next support.
A gap fill play around $113 may be a good accumulation zone pending the relative market strength in the SPY/QQQ.
The negative side for TSLA action today was the fact that the stock was up most in the premarket over 3% and ended up reversing down -2%.
Tesla Drive Down Stronger Than COVID Crash Levels From 2020 Summary:
Taking a look at Tesla compared to the COVID crash we saw in 2020. We are currently pushing harder down than during the previous crash.
Rainbow Trends Signals:
Machine Learning Reversion Bands - Approximate Same Level
RSI Xs - Much hotter now than in 2020. Pink Xs are the highest level this tool prints.
Pivots - No pivot in sight for 2022 compared 2020, support will be harder to find.
Let us know if you have any questions!
TESLA will go sub $50Intelligent investors are fleeing from the failed ideas of Tesla. As the works realises that environmentally damaging Lithium batteries are not a workable solution to our transport needs.
A string of out of control AI nightmare scenarios including Tesla cars that accelerated out of control hasn’t helped.
Rumours of Elon Musk developing a water splitting ‘Stanley Meyer’ type car appear to be false as Elon has often stated he thinks Edison was a better scientists than Tesla, he flaunts his scientific ignorance for all to see.
Recent speculation that Elon is, in fact, a low iq ‘fop’ spear to have been confirmed, even as he continues to promote a joke ‘dog’ coin crypto over the world’s most popular and successful cryptocurrency, Bitcoin - only cementing the publics opinion of him as a low iq ‘fop’.
Can Mr Musk climb out of the hole he has created?
Probably not.
TESLA - The Storm Won't Last Forever🌈Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
📉 TESLA has been overall bearish trading inside the falling red channel, and it is currently retesting the lower red trendline.
Moreover, the zone 55 - 70 is a strong demand zone.
📊 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand zone and lower red trendline. (acting as non-horizontal support)
📕 As per my trading style:
As TESLA approaches the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
The Secret Behind TSLA's 8% Jump on 11/23 - just getting startedI noticed the stars aligning on TSLA, and now much that has happened since Elon took over Twitter is starting to make sense.
1) Elon mentioned back in October it was likely TSLA would do a $5-10B buyback
2) Biden's inflation reduction act creates a 1% excise tax on all Stock Buybacks starting 1/1/23. At a $10B buyback, this represents a $100,000,000 unnecessary liability to the company - meaning Tesla is either going to do a buyback before end of year...or never. A $10B leaves the company in a very strong position w/ a Debt Ratio of .27. The benchmark for a strong company is .4 - meaning Tesla could easily buy back anywhere between $10B or as much as $13.5B of stock and stay in a strong position.
3) TSLA's super hyped and long anticipated Semi 1st delivery event is slated for 12/1. These events have typically sent TSLA shares soaring (even the cybertruck debacle)
4) The chart below shows abnormal relative volume by time period. I recognized a similar pattern when Elon was SELLING shares to finance Twitter earlier this month. Tesla's board isn't dumb and w/ Elon as CEO knew this would depress the price and create a buyback opportunity.
5) Tesla is presently flush with cash ($21B) and has easily manageable debt ($3B). A $10B buyback at $170-180/share would equate to 56M shares. Tesla's 3M average daily volume: 74.7M - volume today: 108.2 (45% ABOVE avg volume) - 33.5M excess shares. This likely indicates TSLA bought back around 25-28M shares.
6) TSLA is well in the green this year - yet the don't issue dividends. I'm not 100% certain on this point, but I believe a company purchasing it's own stock can offset profits and reduce it's tax liability. Tesla doesn't issue dividends, so there's no reason to hold the cash reserves to incur the 21% corporate tax rate. Add to this the fact that the stock got crushed the last 2 months - falling from $308 to $168 (45%), and every Tesla share holder is very eager to stop the bleeding. What to do...what to do???
7) Elon's tweets have been a hotbed for moving TSLA, DOGE, and TWTR shares in the past. Since the Twitter takeover, Elon has been mostly mum aside from some very vanilla posts about TSLA - nothing that would dramatically impact the price.
8) Short volume, while not excessive, will add some fuel to the fire as they cover positions.
Tesla will rebound in dramatic fashion the next few weeks as will the broader market. Corporations saw record profits in Q2 of this year, and if my assumptions on buybacks reducing a corporations tax liabilities are correct - the entire market will likely see a very merry santa rally. Even if a corporation is forced to pay tax on stock buy backs that is similar to corporate tax of 21%, delaying beyond 12/31/21 makes zero financial sense for companies in a strong financial position like Tesla.
My very bold prediction: Tesla finishes 2022 in dramatic fashion over $250/share. Closer to $300/share isn't out of the question.
TSLA next stop: MoonTesla have already tested the support more than once as we can see.
With the BB indicator we can see the candle crossing the upper line and going forward to a bullish trend .
We had also analyzed the Q3 earning report, and Tesla this quarter is much better than the Q2, we can see the assests is the biggest increase since last year, (57 834 millions to 74 426 millions) and the liabilities and equity had a increase but not very relevant, about 4 million.
And we can see in percentage the EBITDA is recovering from last Quarter with an increase of 0,6%
Since the Q2 2022 was the quarter with less vehicle deliveries, almost with the same values seen in Q3 2021.
We can also see the free cash flow chart where it show us a huge increase since 2Q 2022.
Investors drive Tesla lower after mixed Q3 earnings reportTesla shares were lower after their mixed earnings report, which is likely a combination of traders booking profits from the small pre-earnings bounce in a classic case of ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’. But who knows, perhaps investors are tiring of Elon Musk’s showmanship remarks, which today included expectations of a “record breaking Q4” and the potential for “Tesla to be worth mor than Apple and Apple and Saudi Aramco combined”. And it is hard not to be suspicious of the timing of such remarks looking at their YTD performance of -37% and him conceding that he’s overpaid for Twitter (but still “very excited”).
We outlined a multi-month bearish reversal pattern on the monthly chart in our previous article, and for now we'll focus on its potential to break lower over the coming day/s.
A triple top formed around $315, and Tesla has trended lower on the daily chart since. We saw an initial false break of the neckline last week with a bearish engulfing candle on high volume. But notice how volumes have again diminished over the past three days whilst prices bounced higher, which suggests it is a retracement.
Tesla has fallen to 210.35 during post-market trade, which is just above the bearish engulfing low. We are therefore simply looking for a break below $204 (or $200 for a more conservative approach) to assume a bearish breakout, with $180 making a logical target for bears as it is near the March 2021 low.
Given the significance of the March 2021 low then there is a strong possibility it will initially act as support. But keeping the monthly chart and reversal pattern in mind, the bias is for an eventual break below $179.83.
TSLA to test June`s lowElon Musk's purchase of Twitter may affect the TSLA Tesla amid demand concerns and stiff competition.
In order to to go ahead with $44 billion Twitter deal, Elon Musk most likely will sell more TSLA shares soon.
My price target for now is $209.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TESLA - Time to recharge batteries? Looking at Tesla from an Elliot Wave perspective shows a very bullish uptrend since inception of the stock itself. Corrections & Bear Markets are there to beat you down and make you want to give up, and once in a while we are do for a big one. Looking at the chart I see a completion of Macro wave III which started in June of 2019. This was a huge move for Tesla gaining approx. 3,350%. Yes you heard that right, so when we see a large pull back, we shouldn't question it.
The current correction can have many complex variations in Elliot Wave Theory, so far I see an ABC down complete, a correction up for wave (X), and now working on (Y) which should be in 3 waves as another ABC that could bring the price down to $138 as a 1:1 extension of wave A from top of wave (X). If it decides to go even deeper, suppose we have a drastic recession in the world markets including U.S., then the price is allowed to go as low as $28 or a 1.618 fibonacci retracement from wave B of (Y).
In a slightly more bullish view, suppose the elections get markets to have a bear market rally and prices start going up, then we have a possibility that we are still not done with wave B of (Y) show in red colored ABC. However, I see this rally too is likely to fail if it happens; in the end gravity will win brining Tesla down somewhere in the support box (area outlined). Here, a longterm probable bottom as well as a reversal to the upside is likely.
Cheers,
TESLA Shorts - US Stocks FallingTSLA W1
Much higher timeframe analysis here, but looking at a few top US stocks comprised int he 500 to try and marry up some relevant support lows from the next likely bear cycle we are due to expect.
This could take us in to the new year, or maybe sooner, speculative analysis, but worth indicating zones, regardless the DCA principle will apply to the long term investment positioning.