ELON
TESLA (elliot wave update)Looking at past market corrections, 2020 is a new beast. There is absolutely nothing in history that had us crash this fast and this hard.
This leads me to believe that a bounce up should be higher. In my last TESLA update i did post this as secondary count.
I feel the SP500 index needs to go higher prior to retest of the lows, just looking at certain indicators like MACD and RSI things look too proportional, yes im expecting lower prices but it wouldn't make sense to have them right now. I still feel we are in heavily oversold conditions from the March drop. Major stocks of course will follow. The 2008 correction or the flash crash of 87' dont even compare to this, the great depression doesnt either. Yes it went down further, but over years, no correction in history dropped this far this quick.
What I feel is a probable count is a larger more complex correction. I still see lower prices in 2020, just not right now. A mini bull market? perhaps.
Not a financial advice, just my analysis.
Cheers,
TESLA (elliot wave update)Updated count of TSLA.
Tesla's correction should have been complete at the $650 range and .382 fib retracement but market panic elongated the correction.
So we have a failed impulse wave 1, which per elliot now becomes a wave X After an X wave we are looking for an impulse Y wave down consisting of 5 sub waves. Judging by the 30 min chart we seem to have completed 4 of 5 of the Y. The most logical bottom is now at the .618 fib level. So my best probability would place the bottom of the correction at $460-$510 range. On lower time frames I am seeing bullish divergences on MacD as well as RSI. If this move plays out, and if i was to look for a long, the Y low would be my stop loss as price should not go below it, if it does the whole count would have to change. Keep in mind panic in the market can change counts at any time. But this count is what elliot waves try to point at. This would be a fairly deep retracement for a wave 4 which i dont like in a WXY correction, however it does not violate the Elliot Rules, wave 4 is no where close to wave 1 interaction so we are well within elliot count looking for a potential wave 5 and finish of TSLA's bull run and new all time highs.
As always, not a financial advice, for your own good always protect yourself with a stop loss.
Cheers,
Spce is going for a crash landing?Our last TA on SPCE was pretty acurate we got a bounce just above our target with just .20cents off. I'm always a follower of trading range lines or highs lows in predicting pull backs. As of now at closing we are at $26.50 with the low of $25.71, which is marketed on this graph since aftermarket price movement isn't shown due to low volume, yet we all know SPCE has bubblish volume. As of now we can hold off on SPCE until we get bullish movement, but what caused this drop?
1. SPCE was in a microbubble with Bullshit expectations.
2. The EPS was off by a Shit load and anyone could have seen this coming, besides the people getting behind the hype.
3. Corona ingeneral has had affect on the market after it spread to Europe and recently theres a case in California.
What's next for SPCE? well its the market bubble graph and as of now we could say we are in Anxiety since the bounce was Complacency. We could honestly see a sub $10 SPCE with we knowing SPCE won't beable to make any money even raising the price will just hurt the company itself. They need development like SpaceX with inovation on its Rockets. SpaceX has reuseable rockets.
Next target is our trading range of $19.06-$24.25. You can see past TA which hasn't change
TESLA: THE BIG SHORTFirst off, I would like to say that I believe in Tesla and Elon Musk. But this parabolic rally is entirely unsustainable and is fueled by hype similar to cryptocurrency and 2000 Dot Com Bubble.
I called the dip to $750 and subsequent bounce to $950. I have been short biased since $958 and will add above $1,000 if we get there. We might have another push up, but in my view anything up here is an obvious short. I will link proof of my older call below.
Most TSLA bulls got rekt by shorting too early, while I was waiting for a blowoff and bounce (lower high) for this trade to fully develop.
For the Tesla bulltards, this is not a day trade. This is a multi-month or year macro swing trade and I will be hedging on strong bounces. It will not be a straight drop down by any means. But what goes up, must come down. I am primarily technical trader, but with the Cornonavirus debacle and the global slowdown starting, these events add confluence to my bearish view on Tesla.
Long term, I think Tesla can succeed so long as they can remain capital efficient. But for an asset to be properly price, it needs to not be in the midst of a massive hype cycle.
In short, Tesla to $601, $511, and ideally the ~$400 range. If this is a true parabolic invalidation, then an 80% decline puts us at a target of roughly $170-$200. That is not my primary count, but I consider it as a viable possibility if a recession begins within the next 18 months.
Until then, this is a game of patience and shorting every bounce or move higher above $1,000 while hedging long on dips.
If this trade is accurate, it will likely be one of the biggest trades of the decade among major companies. For now, we wait. The Big Short.
BUY THE TESLA DIP TO $900
For those of you who don't know, I shorted Tesla at $950 and am holding it for a swing trade. I'm currently ~30% in profit in a few days.
However, this looks primed to go up and fill the gap above at $900. At this point, it is too soon to tell if we go higher than $900 (green line) and make new highs but I want to be hedged against my position in case we blast off.
The plan:
- Shorted $TSLA at $950
- Long $750 (hedge)
- Take 50% profit at $900
- Let the rest ride until rejection
I've always stated I don't rule out the possibility of Tesla at $1,000+ in the short term. But I will be adding short anywhere above $1,000 and holding it for a long term trade. For now, buy the dip!
For those of you don't follow me on social media and missed my original short call, check it out below!
Tesla: Second expansion phase. Upside potential $1,200 - $1,270.We are looking more deeply into Tesla's technical potential after its very aggressive (and continuous) rise since October. We were among the first to enter this rise early at 205.50 posting that trade back in May 2019:
Needless to say we didn't expect it to rise that strongly on such a short period of time. This is a parabolic move on the 1W chart which turned even this very long term time frame overbought (RSI = 89.001, ADX = 75.689, MACD = 75.910).
In our attempt to find pointers and a comparision framework to move into projections of the future price movement we went back to 2013 during TSLA's first expansion phase. See how similar the two parabolic sequences are. Both were preceded by 850 - 900 days of accumulation with a clear Resistance level (illustrated by the orange zone) and when this level broke, the parabolic rise started.
Based on the above comparison, if the principles stay the same on the current parabola (so far the same parameters are followed), we see no reason why Tesla can't repeat and complete a full +630% rise. Our Target Zone is 1,200 - 1,270.
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Tesla has a LimitTesla has a stock limit. It may look like its running way out of what we thought was possible, but it's just reaching similar peaks as it did in the past. This logarithmic graph shows their exponential growth in linear terms. I predict they'll peak at 525 or at 580 before returning to more modest numbers. It may run over those numbers if people see the stock as a pump and dump with it's current growth. I may try to profit from 480 to 525 but I'm out until it gets back into the 400s.
Tesla nearing topside parallelAfter longing the bottom of this pitchfork formation, TSLA has put in an impressive 5 wave rally to test the topside of this pitchfork.
Alongside this formation, tsla has breached 80 on the RSI again like it did back in November, and is 50% above the 200DMA for the first time since 2017
TESLA Triangle Formation Tesla has been in downward moving channel for 30 weeks. If Tesla delivers a record number of cars in this quarter, the stock will have significant upside potential. There is also 7 week triangle formation in the making. Triangle can be both continuation and reversal types. I believe if tesla delivers in this quarter, stock will move up. I am planning to invest around 219$ and my initial target is 244$(11%). My stop loss will be 181$(20%).
Tesla! 420 next year?Hi guys, Tesla just came down to long term support and held, and then came up and reject resistance so it looks as if we are in the same range as from 14-16.
We are currently sitting in the middle of the range, I believe that the next big break will set the trend for the next 6-12 months.
Fundamentals:
For Tesla to succeed and see enormous growth they need to achieve full self-driving, I think they are still a few years away.
The second thing is battery production and having access to the largest EV market which is China. This is coming with the gigafactory being built this year.
Overall I am bullish on innovation so I'm bullish on Tesla, this doesn't mean we can't lose support and test lower :).
TESLA REVERSAL - KEY ZONE PROVIDES BULL CASE SCENARIORSI & Stochastic are showing that TSLA is very oversold.
Extremely high support at ~$180 is within reach and is the key area for a reversal.
Long term uptrend line is also within reach and shows confluence with the key support level of $180.
LONG TSLA within the $180-190 region.
Tesla opportunityFollowing the steep decline after breaching below the median line in this pitchfork, the lower slope has already been called up to act as support. Alongside this we have the 78.6% retrace off the feb 2016 lows to all time highs & a potential trend line
On another note, we haven't been this far below the 200 daily moving average since that february low. Currently 30% below it (red bars) and like february we're also at this lower slope... time to turn bullish?
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$TSLA Pump or die $TSLA $TESLA$TSLA
If we don't jump anytime we will fall deep in to the low $200 and maybe even to $150 in next couple weeks.
Earnings result went in the price in the open markt, pre-market it did hold very well like my last post about $TSLA.
A lot of downside energy is being made, pump or die $TSLA.
You can consider short positions if we fail to jump on Friday.
Maximum target could be around $150.
It's crazy if you think that we are at the prices of 2017 back again, and maybe even go to 2016/15 prices. The company did way more innovations than you would think if you see the price.