Elonmusk
Is The EV Hype Over? How The Fed Is Destroying TeslaThe first quarter of 2024 is now over, closing in a record +10% YTD rally and an exceptional +43% YOY increase in the QQQ. Despite the markets pushing higher, Tesla is experiencing significant challenges, with a -30% decrease YTD and a -9% decline YOY. This performance has positioned Tesla as the worst performing megacap so far. Given these circumstances, it's essential to delve into both macroeconomic factors and technical analysis to understand what has happened and what is likely to happen moving forward.
The Macroeconomic Impact on Tesla
Two years ago, the Federal Reserve initiated a historic rate-hiking cycle, increasing interest rates from 0% to 5.5% within just over a year and maintaining this rate since July 2023. This shift in monetary policy has notably affected car financing rates, now at 8.2% for a five-year loan, which significantly discourages consumers from buying new vehicles, especially EVs.
The chart clearly illustrates an inverse correlation between Tesla stock and interest rates. Moreover, Tesla has operated exclusively during periods of historically low interest rates. Despite the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes nine months ago, the interest rate on car loans continues to rise. Further examination of inflation trends indicates that most common inflation measures have either plateaued or slowed their pace of deceleration, at a level inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.
The M2 money supply and inflation expectations are critical indicators for predicting the direction of inflation. The peak in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) followed the peak in M2 YOY by 16 months, recently bottoming just three months before CPI YOY stopped making progress to the downside. This lagged correlation suggests that headline CPI is unlikely to continue its strong downward trend moving forward.
Moreover, inflation expectations, which remain well anchored, have also appeared to stop making progress to the downside, all remaining above 2%. This, combined with unchanged interest rates for nine months, suggests that the neutral rate of interest must be significantly higher than the pre-COVID trend.
Historically, recessions have played a key role in helping the Fed bring down inflation to their 2% target. However, current economic indicators, including low unemployment levels and easy financial conditions, suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near future, despite the fed funds rate staying unchanged at a two-decade high.
The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) captures the stimulative effects on the economy from the U.S. government's expansive fiscal policy. By borrowing and spending trillions directly from the Reverse Repo (RRP), the U.S. government has ingeniously counterbalanced the constrictive effects of tighter monetary policy without exerting upward pressure on long-term yields.
The prolonged inversion of the yield curve, significantly extended by the U.S. government's financial strategies, could mark this cycle as having the longest inversion in history. Typically, a steepening yield curve is a precursor to higher unemployment and economic recession. However, the steepening of the yield curve remains unlikely in the short term, with excess reserves still available in the RRP and the Treasury General Account (TGA).
With the U.S. employment sector still robust, showing historically low unemployment levels and low initial and continued claims, the likelihood of a significant uptrend in the unemployment rate seems low, as job openings are absorbing most of the excess labor supply and still remain well above the historical trend.
This suggests that the fed funds rate may remain at around 5% this year, maintaining car loan rates at a higher level for an extended period and consequently making EVs increasingly less affordable for the average consumer. This scenario is likely to lead to a continuation of price cuts and greater margin contractions.
Tesla's Technical Analysis Outlook
From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla stock faced rejection at the $205 horizontal resistance line and might be rejected from the $180 level, marked by the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The next significant support level is at $155, with a possibility of revisiting the January 2023 low of $110, given Tesla's stock has been in a downward trend ever since November 2021.
From a trend-based perspective, we can clearly see that TSLA stock is in a strong downtrend both in the 4H and daily timeframe with the EMAs and 20- week SMA trending lower.
Despite this unfavourable outlook, caution is advised when considering short positions in Tesla due to its market dominance and relatively stable financial position, making it a riskier target than other less financially secure EV manufacturers.
Concluding Thoughts
While the broader market demonstrates resilience, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is significantly shaping the EVs industry future. With the economy likely transitioning away from historically low interest rates into a higher interest rate environment, caution is advised. Investors may benefit from considering less interest-rate-sensitive options until a clearer picture of the inflationary landscape and its impact on the economy emerges.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
Dogecoin Rockets 20%: Unveiling the Forces Driving DOGE's SurgeDogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ), the beloved meme-inspired cryptocurrency, has once again captured the spotlight with a staggering 20% surge, defying market trends and sparking excitement among investors. This surge comes amidst anticipation for its listing on Coinbase Derivatives, marking a pivotal moment for Dogecoin's evolution from internet meme to mainstream asset. Let's unravel the key factors propelling Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ) to new heights and explore the implications of its meteoric rise in the cryptocurrency landscape.
Coinbase Listing Anticipation:
The announcement of Coinbase Derivatives' intention to introduce cash-settled futures for Dogecoin by April 1 has sent ripples of excitement throughout the cryptocurrency community. This move signifies a significant shift in perception, as Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE )transitions from a whimsical internet phenomenon to a recognized asset within the crypto industry. The anticipation surrounding the Coinbase listing has fueled bullish sentiment and heightened interest in Dogecoin, underscoring its growing acceptance and relevance among institutional players and retail investors alike.
Meme Coins and Whale Activity:
Dogecoin's recent surge is not only a testament to its enduring popularity but also reflects broader trends in the cryptocurrency market. Meme coins, characterized by their playful branding and widespread appeal, have emerged as a captivating trend, with Dogecoin leading the pack. The surge in whale activity, observed through significant on-chain market dynamics, further reinforces bullish sentiment surrounding Dogecoin, highlighting the significant influence of large holders in shaping market trends and driving price movements.
Market Performance and Trading Status:
Despite its origins as a meme-inspired asset, Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ) continues to demonstrate resilience and attractiveness to investors. With a current price of $0.2138 and a robust 24-hour trading volume of $6 billion, Dogecoin's performance defies market volatility, maintaining a live market cap of $29 billion. Long positions dominate the futures market, signaling prevailing bullish sentiment among traders and instilling confidence in Dogecoin's future prospects.
Key Drivers of Dogecoin's Surge:
Elon Musk's involvement in Dogecoin's resurgence cannot be overlooked, as evidenced by his recent licensing approvals for running a payment service on his X social media platform. The integration of Dogecoin into the X payment platform holds promise for broader adoption and increased utility, driving optimism among investors. Additionally, positive market indicators such as record-high open interest in Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ) futures and bullish fractal patterns from 2020 further fuel speculation of a sustained upward trajectory for Dogecoin's price.
Technical Outlook
Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ) has been on a bullish momentum since yesterday Wednesday, with a Bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 71 indicating a strong Overbought condition or a continual trend. Further validating the bullish nature, the meme coin is trading above the 200, 100, and 50-day Moving Averages. respectively.
Tesla - Wait For The CloseHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Tesla.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
After Tesla started an insane pump of + 3.200% in 2019, we saw a top being created in 2021 and since then, Tesla has been trending towards the downside. You can also see that there is a significant horizontal structure level at the $200 area and Tesla is about to break this level towards the downside. It is best to wait for the monthly candle close before taking new trades.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
DOGE Dogecoin Potential Retracement Soon After DOGE Dogecoin perfectly reached the price target:
Now, at an RSI exceeding 91, it seems we are currently in a bubble.
The previous correction following an RSI surpassing 90 was substantial.
Taking into account the Fib retracement tool, my anticipated price targets are $0.123 and $0.103.
#Dogecoin idea update vs #BTCI posted this #DOGEBTC chart a long time ago
Well we are seeing the fractal that I thought was forming appear to be well underway
which is great not only for Doge but #Altcoins as well
Over the years Doge has been fantastic at generating more BTC
and quite literally a unicorn in making higher highs and higher lows through multi cycles
The coin that sparked a whole industry
But often times its best to bet on the market leader
think Coke v Pespi
Apple V Samsung
A $80k BTC puts Doge at over $2 using this projection
will it get there... ? tough to say But at least we have a roadmap
Tesla Stock Plummet On China's Production CutTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) has reduced production at its Shanghai factory amid slowing EV demand in the world's largest auto market. The move to cut production in China also comes as the global EV giant is heading towards a likely first-quarter delivery miss and has announced vehicle prices will begin to increase.
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is reducing production at the China plant to five days a week. The output cuts started earlier in March and could continue through April, Bloomberg reported Friday.
The action comes amid slowing EV growth in China and with Tesla's Shanghai facility already not producing at full capacity. Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) observers have repeatedly said in recent weeks that global inventory appears high.
This week, local media reported Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) will slightly raise China list prices on Model Y vehicles starting on April 1, following similar plans in the U.S. and Europe. Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is also offering discounts between $1,000-$1,500 in China on inventory Model Y vehicles. Inventory discounts are more significant in the U.S. and Europe.
First-Quarter Deliveries Below Expectations
The global EV company ended 2023 on a high in China. However, the EV dynamic in China has changed early in 2024. Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has also said China's EV companies are Tesla's main competition — with BYD (BYDDF), Nio (NIO), Li Auto (LI) and others all making inroads in the EV market.
Tesla China delivered 60,365 in February, down around 19% compared to last year, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Chinese New Year ran for two weeks in February, from Feb. 10-Feb. 24. Tesla deliveries of China-made vehicles in January and February totaled 131,812, down 6% compared to 2023.
Cutting Shanghai production would be further confirmation of weakening demand not only in China, but in Europe and other key markets. Shanghai exports to Europe have waned over the past several months, while the Tesla Berlin factory is running well below capacity.
Meanwhile, with the first quarter ending soon, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) appears to be heading for a delivery miss. Wall Street consensus currently still has Q1 deliveries of 481,000 units, according to FactSet, but many analysts have cut predictions in recent days. Tesla is expected to report Q1 deliveries in early April.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA shares fell 3.3% to 167.14 during market action Friday. Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) shares has a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 38.26 indicating selling pressure.
Last week, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock dropped 6.7% to 163.57, hitting new 2024 lows and levels not seen since May 2023. NASDAQ:TSLA is down more than 14% in March and the biggest loser on the S&P 500 index so far in 2024.
UBS last week cut its Tesla stock price target to 165, from 225, and maintained a neutral rating on the shares. UBS lowered its Q1 delivery forecast to 432,000 units, from its previous 466,000 view. The firm also cut full-year deliveries to 1.96 million units, from 2.02 million previously.
With 2023 in retrospect, analyst consensus now has 2024 Tesla earnings below 2023's level. That signals another year of earnings declines for this growth stock. Wall Street expects Tesla earnings per share of just $2.96 a share in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be around a 5% decline vs. last year's $3.12.
DWAC Acquisition Faces Rollercoaster Ride Amid Trump Merger The tumultuous journey of NASDAQ:DWAC stock, the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) aiming to take former President Donald Trump's tech and social media platform public, continues to captivate investors amidst a whirlwind of events. From surging highs to staggering lows, the stock's trajectory reflects the intricate interplay between market expectations, legal challenges, and the enigmatic allure of the Trump brand.
In recent weeks, NASDAQ:DWAC shares have faced downward pressure as traders grapple with the implications of Trump's financial struggles. Amidst mounting concerns, the stock plunged to a monthly low of $32.25 before staging a partial recovery to $36.42. However, buoyed by optimism surrounding the pending merger with Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), DWAC saw a resurgence in pre-market trading, reaching a high of $38.
The merger between NASDAQ:DWAC and Trump Media has been fraught with controversy, marked by lawsuits, regulatory scrutiny, and speculation surrounding the viability of Truth Social, the conservative social media platform owned by Trump Media. Allegations of stock grabs, legal battles, and Trump's efforts to secure substantial bond funds to appeal a civil business fraud judgment have added to the uncertainty surrounding the merger.
Despite the challenges, NASDAQ:DWAC shareholders are poised to vote on the merger with Trump Media on Friday, signaling a pivotal moment in the company's trajectory. If approved, the merger could see Trump's stake in TMTG valued at a staggering $4 billion, a testament to the enduring allure of the Trump brand in the eyes of investors.
However, DWAC's fortunes remain intrinsically linked to Trump's political ambitions and legal battles. The former president's status as the top Republican candidate for president has fueled optimism among investors, with hopes of a Trump victory in the election potentially driving further gains for the stock.
Yet, concerns linger over the impact of federal charges and ongoing legal battles on the Trump brand and, by extension, NASDAQ:DWAC stock. Despite a recent decline in March and a substantial drop from its peak in October 2021, DWAC shares remain up 128% in 2024, underscoring the enduring interest in the company's potential.
As NASDAQ:DWAC navigates the choppy waters of Trump's financial woes and legal challenges, investors remain on edge, eagerly awaiting the outcome of Friday's merger vote and the subsequent implications for the company's future. With volatility likely to persist in the short term, DWAC's journey serves as a testament to the unpredictable nature of the market and the enduring fascination with the Trump phenomenon.
Tesla - Confirmed BreakdownHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Tesla.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than three years, Tesla stock has been trading in a bullish flag formation. Two months ago Tesla once again retested the upper resistance trendline and failed to break out towards the upside. There are two major support levels below current market price which I do expect Tesla to retest. Then you can absolutely consider long setups again on Tesla stock.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Elon Musk Poised To Open Dogecoin (DOGE) Payments For Tesla CarsElon Musk To Introduce Dogecoin Payments For Tesla
Elon Musk recently visited the German Tesla factory near Berlin due to a suspected arson attack and mentioned Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ) during his speech on the stage. He underscored the significance of launching DOGE as a payment method for Tesla and noted that it will be possible at some point. Moreover, he expressed optimism on the meme coin’s future and ecstatically remarked, “Dogecoin to the moon.”
If the announcement becomes true, it would mark a massive milestone for the DOGE crypto, which is currently vulnerable due to its rival Shiba Inu ( CRYPTOCAP:SHIB ). Meanwhile, Musk concluded that CRYPTOCAP:DOGE can be used as a means of payment to acquire Tesla merchandise currently. Furthermore, Musk spotlighted his unwavering support for the doge-themed crypto and highlighted why he endorsed Dogecoin in the past.
Musk revealed that while working in the Tesla and Space X plants, so many people asked him to support Dogecoin. Eventually, Musk agreed that CRYPTOCAP:DOGE is the “people’s crypto” and decided to back the King of meme coins. Moreover, he also highlighted that loads of “rich people” were supporting Bitcoin (BTC) but he chose DOGE owing to the request made by the general people. In addition, Musk spread optimism declaring, “DOGE is for you.”
DOGE Competition Intensifies
Shiba Inu has seen a surge in demand, overtaking Dogecoin in terms of the weekly trade volume. Despite Dogecoin’s status as the market leader in the meme coin space, Shiba Inu outshined DOGE’s trading volume last week. SHIB recorded an impressive $31 billion in trading volume last week.
Technical Outlook
Dogecoin is trading above its 200-day Moving Average with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 70 indicating moderate growth from the memecoin. The asset could find new resistance at the $0.236 mark.
TESLA just set the new target down to $100 - Problems for EVsTechnically we see an M Formation on Tesla.
The price broke below the neckline and the price is both below the 20MA and the 200MA.
The nature of this analysis is HIGH probability.
We, can set the first target to $100 and then next to $80. And if it breaks further we are talking $60....
But let's see.
There is fire in the EV space. With crashes, glitches, malfunctions, issues with snow, unable to track correctly objects on the streets and identifying.
There are also issues with having parts reordered when they breakdown.
And Elon is focussing more of his attention on X and SPace X. So this is not convincing and promising to shareholders to keep holding.
LTC, the Sleeping Giant now break out!! its ready to takeoff!!Technical Analysis: #LTC (Monthly Update)
#Litecoin now breakout the 238 days accumulation zone, This is just the beginning of new uptrend.
#Litecoin is ready to take off and looks too bullish, it will ready to test its previous high and make new ATH at year-end or earlier.
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#LTCCOIN #CRYPTO #BULLISHRUN #ALTCOIN #UPTREND
Tesla Faces Headwinds: Analysts Downgraded TSLA StockTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), the electric vehicle (EV) pioneer, finds itself at a crossroads as analysts' sentiments diverge on the company's prospects. Recent downgrades and contrasting opinions reflect uncertainty surrounding Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) delivery expectations, pricing strategy, and the viability of its next-generation vehicles. Let's delve into the nuanced landscape of Tesla's stock analysis and the divergent views shaping its trajectory.
Downgrades and Concerns:
Wells Fargo's downgrade of Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) to underweight, with a reduced price target, highlights concerns over disappointing first-quarter deliveries and ongoing price cuts. The firm's skepticism extends to Tesla's next-generation offering, particularly the economics of the anticipated Model 2. Everscore's projection of delayed ramp-up for Tesla's cheaper vehicle further compounds apprehensions, indicating potential challenges ahead.
Optimism Amidst Uncertainty:
Despite the prevailing skepticism, Wedbush Securities' analyst Dan Ives maintains an outperform rating for Tesla, albeit with reduced Q1 delivery expectations. Ives remains bullish on Tesla's long-term prospects, emphasizing a positive outlook for deliveries throughout the year. His optimism stems from observations during a recent trip to Asia, suggesting a slowdown in price cuts and potential stabilization in demand, benefiting Tesla and the broader EV industry.
Contrasting Views on Earnings and Performance:
Analyst consensus for Tesla's 2024 earnings paints a mixed picture, with projections below 2023 levels, indicating another year of negative growth. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas echoes concerns, lowering earnings projections and envisioning potential losses for Tesla in 2024. Despite trimming his price target, Jonas maintains an overweight rating, underscoring the complexity of Tesla's performance outlook amidst evolving market dynamics.
Market Response and Outlook:
Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock performance reflects investor uncertainty, with recent declines and contrasting analyst opinions shaping market sentiment. As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) navigates through delivery challenges, pricing adjustments, and the development of next-generation vehicles, stakeholders remain vigilant for signs of sustained growth and profitability. With Tesla's position in the EV landscape evolving, market watchers await clarity on its strategic direction and execution in the coming quarters.
BTC 📍 macro analysis ⏰ BULL 🚀🐂 RUN Hello 👋 it's me your RAJ 🙂 professional trader ✨
This idea 💡
is completely my own analysis to explain situation _&_ market conditions of BITCOIN 🪙
How this coin valid for long term 📌 including fud & news 🗞️ explained clearly 📌 #DYOR
📅 ....... BINANCE:BTCUSDT 👑 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ........ 🌴
28TH - OCTOBER - 2024
/
10TH - FEBRUARY - 2025
🔝 $121236.10 🪙 🎯 ⚠️
>>> leading pressure stretch 💹
8-18TH - SEPTEMBER -2025
🤝 $175576.43 ❣🦩 ( 15-12-25 )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
🪩 disclaimer :
▶️ TQ u for supporting 💚 follow idea 💡 get updates everytime ⏰ when I updated 📌
Note 👀
👉 keeping comments , reacting with emojis , pointing us is very easy to some people
They think 💬 what they see 📌 that was knowledge 📌
We need to learn market in many ways and should get adopted with experience, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS won't help understanding market structure and understanding bull 🐂 and bear 🐻 is more important
Economical conditions
Fundamentals
Technical
News
Sentiments
Checking macro to micro having good plan and build it is very important ☺️
Some Times market easily turn suddenly bear // bull 🤣 even we need to catch 🫴 those movements is also very important ☺️ 💛
I hope i cleared my view 🙂 if any points if I miss I will add in update 📌 post
Try to understand, try to learn - try to move with flexibility with market is important
Have good day 😊
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Let's discuss about buy zone 📌 🙄
Support 📌 $21480 - $23368 - $26800 - $29800 - $33690
Accumulation range was $20000k to $36000 below 📍
Distribution zone 📌 $80k to $175k ( IMO :-: $100k to $140k )
Resistance 📌 $80000 - $104600 - $120000 - $135000 - $146000 - $168000
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Note 📌 understood every update and take decision ⚡
90% chance there is no new low 🔅
90% chance max bull run will complete below $120K
90% chance BITSTAMP:BTCUSD will complete $80-100k wick $120k
Everything thing 📌 will be explained as thread 🧵 how and why
✨ Start 🧵👉
Why I technically feel, Tesla is ready to build 30X againKeep It Simple and Trade With the Trend.
As a trader, you have probably heard the old adage that it is best to "trade with the trend." The trend, say all the pundits, is your friend. This is sage advice as long as you know and can accept that the trend can end. And then the trend is not your friend. There are multiple ways to spot trends, direction, and momentum.
So how can we determine the direction of the trend?
Let's take a look on the KISS rule, which says, "Keep it (as much as possible) simple, stupid!" Here is a method of determining the trend, and a simple method of anticipating the end of the trend.
Before we've started, it should be mentioned the importance of time frames in determining the trend. Usually, when we are analyzing long-term investments, the long-term time frame (one-week or larger) dominates the shorter time frames. However, for intraday purposes, the shorter time frame could be of greater value. Trades can be divided into three classes of trading styles or segments: the intra-day, the swing, and the position trade.
Large commercial traders, such as those companies setting up production in a foreign country, might be interested in the fate of the currency over a long period of such as months or years. But for speculators, a weekly chart can be accepted as the "long-term".
Averages Moving in Pairs
With a weekly chart as the initial reference, we can then go about determining the long-term trend for a speculative trader. To do this, we will resort to two very useful tools that will help us determine the stage of the trend. These two tools are the simple moving average and the exponential moving average.
Going further and keeping in mind all the mentioned above rules, lets build the trend.
Darlings, well graphed Tesla stocks trend is still the same as in 2019, where it started 30x gain.
Anybody tried to get all the path at those times? There's a chance you'll miss it again!
XRP, the Sleeping Giant Looks good!! could it ready to Breakout?Technical Analysis: #XRP (Monthly Update)
#Ripple coin is now trying to break out of the 1065-day accumulation zone, if it could, this is just the beginning of a new uptrend.
#Rpple Coin is almost ready to takeoff and looks too bullish, if march closes upper the trend line so will be ready to test its previous high and make a new ATH at year-end or earlier.
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#XRPCOIN #CRYPTO #BULLISHRUN #ALTCOIN #UPTREND
Makes and Breaks Level for BTC in Monthly Timeframe!!Technical analysis:
#BITCOIN (Monthly update)
* BTCUSD is trying to break the Raising wedge Pattern resistance in Monthly timeframe.
Bitcoin Bulls need to Reclaim the 66k Horizontal Resistance for further Upside movement ..
*BTC is now the most important zone right now, its makes or breaks level for bitcoin. if BTC doesn't break out may reach the 40k level again.
* RSI above 70 means bulls are in the upper hand, it will take the momentum from here and still have room to go upside..
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#bitcoin #crypto #nextmove #bullmarket #sideways #btcusdt #monthlyclosed