ELON LABUTENES — BEAR SKETCHES. JUNE 2025 AND HALF A YEAR UPSHOTTesla results in June 2025 draw an alarming picture of the future company. In the second quarter, car supplies were sharply reduced by 14% compared to last year, decreasing to 384,122 units from 443,956 earlier - a clear sign of a decrease in demand and increased competition in the electric car market (EM).
Despite the short-term growth of shares after the results, this happened only because the numbers turned out to be less catastrophic than the most pessimistic forecasts, and not because of any real improvement in fundamental indicators.
Fundamentally key problems include:
The obsolescence of the product line: Tesla cars are increasingly considered as outdated, with minimal innovations in the main models. Widely advertised Cybertruck and Robotaxi programs could not provide a significant volume or excitement, and Model S/X updates could not turn back the drop in sales.
Damage to the brand: the polarizing political participation of the Elon Musk pushed a significant part of the client base, which led to the negative perception of the brand and even the loss of incentives in some regions.
Institutional outflow: Large institutional investors reduce their shares, and the share of ownership falls below 50%, which indicates a lack of trust from “smart money”.
The risks of profitability: due to the fall in sales and reduction of prices undermining the margin, the profitability of Tesla is in jeopardy. Analysts warn of compressing margin and potential negative free cash flow if the trends are preserved.
Technical aspects
In the technical plan, Tesla’s shares completed June 2025 on a low note, among looser components of the S&P 500 index, with a demonstrative decrease in the price of the 1st trading session of July without any obvious V-shope recovery in the following two trading sessions.
In previous publications, we have already examined the scenarios of short positions (see related ideas), and in the III - IV quarters of 2025 we look closely at the new Elon lututs.
The technical main schedule reflects the dynamics of the December Call option for Tesla stocks - OPRA:TSLA251219C300.0 TSLA 19 Dec 2025 Call 300
Resume
Looking ahead, Tesla is faced with a difficult situation, with the further risk of a deterioration in the situation, if it cannot revive demand or restore the image of the brand.
--
With the best Labuten wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
