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Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

BTC/USD D1 chart (1/16/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday's $100 move to the downside created a descending broadening wedge, out of the previous bull flag, which price broke out of this morning. Currently, price is testing resistance as support, and if this is successful we should generally expect continued upward movement. The 15 minute McGinley Dynamic aligns with the previous resistance and price has closed above the blue pivot, even pushing briefly above the R1 pivot before this retrace. Is this still wave 4 of the C wave? We don't know yet. If so, then we can expect to move to the lower pink box, most likely, before moving up with the next set of impulse waves. Currently, tensorcharts.com is showing significant visible supply on the order books immediately overhead. There is also strong visible demand immediately below price as well. Volume has continued to drop on the H1 suggesting that we may still be in the corrective wave. The next set of impulsive waves up should break through the volume downtrend on the H1/H4 TFs. As always, traders should be utilizing strong risk management and waiting for confirmations before entering a position. The H12 shows the recent upward breakout being rejected at the McGinley Dynamic, but it also shows higher lows and highs from the January 13th low. The lack of a green (white on my chart) D1 candle yesterday makes the January 14th bullish engulfing candle reversal suspect, so we must continue watching the daily closes. The bigger picture remains. We have what appears to be an accumulation TR without a Spring currently printing, denoted by the horizontal blue lines. We have the outer resistance levels denoted by the horizontal red lines (these are ultimately the levels traders should be watching). We have the impulsive move up from the ST. Volume has continued to drop since the PS, suggesting consolidation toward a significant move in either direction. We can see the descending green dashed line, which is aligning with the 50 EMA, and a move above that should see volume increasingly significantly. We can also see there is a possible support building along the ascending dotted black line. The blue zones above the TR note D1 supply. D1 MACD is curled up suggesting bullishness building, as well as having printed bullish divergence on the histogram between December 7th and January 13th. D1 RSI continues printing higher lows and highs so far. A move above the D1 pivot will likely target the upper pink box and then the descending green resistance. My belief remains that if this occurs, then price will hit that green resistance, drop back for a retrace, possibly using the ascending black dotted support to bounce from, and then push through the resistance. I have outlined this possibility in orange, and it would align with the expected movement of this TR completing without a Spring. A move to the lower pink box could still see price following this movement, but it also increases the chances of a retest of the lows at the lower red line. So, as mentioned above, traders need to remain cautious. We will discuss this in detail, as well as look at the smaller TF charts during this morning's live stream. As I have continued to warn traders, we need to see volume increasing as price increases to provide the fuel needed to push through that nearby overhead resistance. Failure to do so means price is most likely headed down. However, down may not be bad. If there is a move down from here to the ~$2900 target, then it could very well just be a Spring which would indicate bullish momentum incoming and we could expect a very nice move up. However, we would have to wait until that point and evaluate price action and volume at that time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
EURCHF May Continue Or Change The Trend !EURCHF has been in a decline for the past several weeks. The trend may just continue or it may change its course as the price approaches crucial support level of 1.11000. Currently looking at the weekly charts (the main chart) the price is trending down just shy of the crucial 1.11000 level. Ina few weeks the price is expected to reach that crucial support and then from there on it may either make trend change and aim for the above red line resistance levels or it may continue to head south where other support lies. Have a look at the daily chart in the below snapshot. The price action has developed a descending trendline and it has been respected on numerous occasions. A further confluence factor can be intensified for LONG trade if the trendline breaks together with the resistance of 1.15000. Its advisable to enter LONG when the 1.15000 level is broken and retested so we can get a better risk to reward ratio. On the flip side should the crucial support of 1.110000 break then it may or may NOT follow the current descending trend!. However the main thing that needs to happen is that the support needs to be broken convincingly so our probability can increase. All in all its a matter of being patient and let the price action play out so we can take a more risk to reward favored opportunity when the right time and circumstances appear. This is just my analysis and shall there be any trade signal i will post them in a new thread. cheers
by FX618Analysis
Potential Daily & Weekly SHORT Trade Developing In EURAUD EURAUD at the moment is providing us with both a swing and day trading opportunity which is still developing and might be complete soon. After hitting the strong crucial resistance of 1.63500 level not once but twice in a span of months the pair seemed to be headed towards the next support level that lies in the region of 1.55000. Have a look at the main chart here as the weekly 50 EMA seems to be present just beneath the weekly candle and can potentially act as a dynamic support. until this weekly 50 EMA is broken convincingly to the downside we then only can confirm that the price is headed to towards that support of 1.55000 level. As i repeat the price has rejected the resistance level of 1.63500 twice and forming a double top chart pattern. This acts as further evidence that the price is headed south for time being and a potential SHORT SWING trading opportunity can only arise given the weekly 50 EMA can be broken convincingly Now onto the day trading opportunity, have a look at the daily chart below The red line represent the weekly 50 ema support thats present on the weekly chart. moreover For this day trading opportunity to take place the the price needs to break the daily 50 EMA and slightly retrace before we can make our entry. Our target ofcourse would be the WEEKLY 50 EMA here. This is just my analysis and shall there be any trade entries i will be posting them in the new thread. Hope this helps. cheers and happy trading
Short
by FX618Analysis
KIWI Trying to Resume Its Downtrend, 0.61000 Level In Sight !Kiwi was not performing against the USD that good last year and this year might be the same case scenario too. Have look at the above Monthly charts picture for NZDUSD. There are numerous long term trendlines one of which was broken a few months ago signalling the kiwi headed south towards another long term trendline located at around 0.61000 level!. The main chart is the daily version showing that there is ascending trendline developing and if in the coming days it breaches the kiwi might head south. Basically it seems its just a consolidation move before the downtrend starts to resume. Shall there be any updates i will provide them below in the comments. any trade set up would be provided too together with entry, sl and tp levels. cheers happy trading
Short
by FX618Analysis
EURUSD Trying to reach Crucial 1.1600 level and Weekly 50EMA !For a long while, EURUSD has been confined in descending wedge and currently hovering at the descending trendline of the wedge. By looking at the current weekly charts, the price shows thats its confined in a wedge. last year the price action formed head and shoulders pattern, adding to this the neckline was also broken to confirm the pattern completion. On A long term scale based on technical analysis the price is forecasted to continue its decline further below. However in this particular case, EURUSD seemed to be focused on targeting the ascending trendline of the wedge before making its next move!. So what are the confluence factors supporting this statement? we will be analyzing them below First of all, have a look at the current weekly charts. the price seemed to have bottomed for now and its slowly ascending higher. technically there is a channel present on the daily charts that needs to be broken in order to confirm this move. have a look at this image below of daily charts showing the price confined in the channel For the channel to break on the daily charts, the price needs to break the ascending trendline and retest slightly before we can go LONG on this trade. our target would be focused on the weekly 50 EMA where also the 1.16000 level resistance lies!. We can opt to take this pair further LONG in the near future if the weekly EMA 50 breaks and could target 1.1700 level Fundamentally this pair is under pressure as donald trump is pressuring the FED not to raise rates and 2019 seems is likely to be slow as FED might not raise the rates more than 2 times or it can be even less. the trade war seems also to be showing its effect in some major economic calendar events not in favor of the USD. To add to this, the EUR itself is not doing so great but on the balance of things taking this pair LONG seems to make sense for now. Once the criteria are met i will post the update to this trade in the comments below. For i am just waiting for the channel to break on the daily charts before i can think to take action. stay tuned for any updates
Long
by FX618Analysis
Will the 50 EMA Hold or will we see support off the 200 EMA?Gold has broken through the 1 hour support line and the final price action before the weekend, saw a small bounce from the 50EMA. As you can see we have an underlying 4 hour support line, which will nicely coincide with the 200 EMA. Monday lunch time should see gold give its indication of where price will move to next, a short term pull back before continuing the uptrend or the potential for the uptrend to continue. Overall a long trade, this will be one to wait for a good entry point.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by dnsmith
BTC Update! Increasing bear volume & loss of EMA support! Well first Merry Christmas to my followers and anyone checking out this chart. I hope each and every one of you gets to enjoy the holiday with your family. Wanted to get a quick update for BTC here. I had personally exited my positions and locked in profits a couple of days ago as BTC started its lower highs and lower lows on hourly and 4 hour charts. This however lasted a very brief time and I was very impressed when bulls set $3775 as the low before climbing back to a new high of this move which is now $4239. Bulls held 26 EMA on the 4 hour chart for that pull back and I was expecting them to lose it before trying for higher highs. So instead I remained patient and recognized my initial thoughts were if we had gotten a bull break originally above our high (at the time it was $4175) that I was not expecting much follow through. So here we are a few days later and that follow through only yielded $64 before we started pulling back again. This pullback is different in my opinion for a couple of reasons. 1. We have lost 26 EMA support on 4 hour chart 2. We saw the initial red candlestick up near the top and then saw the INCREASING bear volume behind it. So those are negatives. If I were looking for positives, I'd give a couple reasons here as well. 1. The bulls held the initial low of our pullback 3 days ago (the $3775) albeit by $11. 2. The daily chart found support on its 12 EMA. So what next? I continue to remain cash personally as I still want to see that daily chart consolidate more and form its healthy higher low. I would consider bullish entries if hour chart can turn higher lows and higher highs but ideally want to keep patient and wait. Will $3775 hold again? I don't know but I was leaning No last post and I remain of that same mindset. $3775 was not enough consolidation in my opinion and I still think there is more to come. Perhaps bulls turn it around and don't fall lower but I'll wait and see. ETH and LTC who have both run harder, are also falling harder with about 20% and 17% pullbacks respectively in the last few hours compared to about 10% for BTC. We are definitely seeing some increased volatility today so it does have me protective as I don't care to be involved in a whale battle with fast swings in price action. Likely no chart update tomorrow unless something exciting happens so once again, Merry Christmas! Please like, share, comment. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
2
$BTC LOG SCALE ON COINBASE FAT BEARIf you look at the daily Coinbase chart and switch it to a log scale chart. Then you will see that the uptrend is stronger than you thought but you will also see that we have been in a Bear market since price closed below the 200 EMA back in January of this year. I have been told that many long term institutional investors use Log Scale charts -vs- standard Linear Scale charts when they are making TA decisions. Either way I feel that it is in my best interest to try and swim in the direction of the current. With that being said institutional money has been short since last December when the $BTC Futures contracts launched. Who do you think ran the price way up to $20K just so they could short it at the tipsy top? Every week since they have been short, balance heavy in the futures market so until we see them swing their positions to the long side then I feel that we are looking at more downward pressure. Not only do we have problems with several adult man children fighting over their toys ($BCH Drama) but their is no one with a vested interest to defend $BTC at this level. What I mean by this is, when the CME and the CBOT decided to launch $BTC futures contracts then on that day they started buying physical $BTC and how many years did it take them to stand up their products? How many years ago was that? The institutions are into $BTC much lower than many would think so don't be surprised to see $BTC slide to $1,500 or lower. Just my 2 nickles. DCA + HODL = Success. Viva La Crypto!!!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by dipdizzywizzle
SPDR S&P 500 15M ETF DAY TRADING STRATEGYWe’re going to talk how ETF trading strategies can help you grow a small account quickly. ETFs are versatile financial instruments that are suitable for every trading style from day trading ETF to swing trading ETF. ETF exchange traded funds are financial instruments designed to follow the price of a specific basket of assets and are traded on the US stock exchanges. ETF trading works exactly like stock trading. For example, the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) is tracking the S&P500 index. Day trading is among the best ETF trading strategies because this environment is characterized by high volatility. the best ETF to day trade SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Gold Miners ETF (GDX) ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) Step #1: Apply the 50 – period Moving Average on the 15-Minute Chart The 50 – period moving average is one of the most popular indicators in stock trading. The 50 MA is a psychological level that many professional traders and investors use to gauge the market sentiment. Because many traders use the 50 moving average it has more relevance to the price action. This is the reason why we use the 50 MA in combination with the opening trading range. Step #2: Only Enter Trades after 10:00 AM ET We like to focus on the opening trading range when day trading ETFs. The morning session is when the smart money usually steps in the market and subsequently the most volume happens during the morning session. By focusing only on the morning session we avoid being glued to the chart all day long and only trade alongside the institutional money. The regular trading hours for the SPDR S&P 500 trust starts at 9:30 AM ET. But, we like the first 30 minutes after the open, to wait and see what the smart money are doing. Successful day trading leveraged ETFs is all about taking those opportunities during the most volatile time of the trading day. Step #3: Price Needs to Hold Below 50-MA and to Open in the Lower Part of the Previous 5 Day Trading Range After we analyze how the market plays out during the first 30 minutes of the opening session, we look for the price to hold below the key 50 moving average. Secondly, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF also needs to open in the lower part of the previous 5 day trading range. Simply mark on your chart the previous 5 trading days and the lowest price of that trading range. If, on the six day we open near the lowest price and we hold below 50 MA we’re good to sell SPY. Step #4: Hide SL $0.25 above the 50 Moving Average With this mechanical day trading strategy we place our stop loss $0.25 above the 50 moving average. If after the open SPY breaks above the 50 MA it signals that the bears are very weak. We found this technical reading to be very significant for day trading. Step #5: Take Profit if SPY Declines $1.00 This trade setup is based on our experience that if all the above conditions are satisfied, then there is a very high probability for the SPY ETF to fall at least $1. If your profit target is not reached by 4:00 PM ET close the trade manually. Note** the above was an example of a SELL trade. Use the same rules for a BUT trade – but in reverse. Day trading ETFs provides simple investment opportunities and have a lower operating cost than most of the other financial vehicles. Don’t underestimate the power of trading leveraged ETFs if you want to take advantage of the intraday volatility.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tradingstrategyguides
CADJPY 15M MFI DAY TRADING STRATEGY WORKS ON FOREXThis is a great Day trading strategy What ever session you trade this will work Best on 5m charts but all TF work Rule 1 - add MFI to chart and change these settings - Length 3 / Levels 0/100 Rule 2 - I like to add the 50 ema to determine what direction I want to trade Rule 3 - Wait for MFI to hit the 100 level twice if bullish bias trade Rule 4 - Buy when MFI hits 100 3rd time and there is a green candle close also Rule 5 - SL nearest fractal low Rule 6 - you determine TP strategy
Long
by Tradingstrategyguides
GBPUSD A Potential Long Opportunity Awaiting Slight Retracement!I am awaiting for this pair to retrace to around 1.30000 level where the weekly pivot is located as well as the daily 50 EMA and then i am planning to go LONG on this pair. Looking at the main chart, a long term daily trendline was violated which also happens to be the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that had formed. The price has already broken through the daily 50 EMA and now i am waiting it to retrace to 1.3000 before i make my entry and take this pair LONG. The possible risk to reward ratio on this one is around 1:3 or 1:4 but however as we go along the fundamental and technical factors must be taken into consideration to adjust the TP AND SL levels The inverse head and shoulders formed right the 61.8 fib retracement of the previous weekly swing (see the chart below) adding to further confluence that the pair is ready to go up! Adding to the further more confluence, the weekly chart attached below indicates the wedge has been broken and now is seems to be retesting the upper trendline Have a read to the related ideas as well, as the harmonic pattern has developed and the pattern is yet to be invalidated either. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Well with all the technical analysis done which points to this pair heading upwards, lets look at the fundamental parts. The GBP recently is heavily relient on the brexit news and the recent developments show the deal is likely to be wrapped up in october this year. should this happen then we can see the GBP appreciate against many pairs. However against the USD the gains might be limited as the USD has been doing well this year and the FED rate hike expectations could mean less gain for this pair. Thus taking this all into consideration, the SL AND TP will be adjusted accordingly. However other GBP pairs are likely to gain more value such as the EURGBP, GBPNZD AND GBPJPY OR GBPCHF But for now this pair seems to show a lot of confluence to the upside and i would probably enter the trade once the price retraces to around 1.3000. stay tuned for any updates and signals. thank you
Long
by FX618Analysis
EMA strategy - June to dateThis EMA test produced 9% over 5 trades Rules: Create four closing price Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) indicators on a 4hr chart 20 EMA , 50 EMA , 160 EMA and 400 EMA SETUP: 1. Look for alignment on the two bigger EMAs (160 and 400) - when 160 is below 400 for a short and 160 is above 400 for along 2. Wait for the same setup on the two lower EMAs (20 cross below 50) 3. Enter at the point of the cross - ENTRY Create 2 trades:- 30 pips and 60pips and stop loss at -30pips Happy Trading Follow @Bizlus
by bizlus
BTC showing bearish signsEven though I have not yet placed a short, BTC is looking to close its weekly candle below last weeks low (61xx). The bears are not done yet, as I am expecting a final push lower before the final bull run. 46xx makes a lot more sense for institutions and big money to jump in, but a reversal from 57xx has happened three times before and clearly serves as a strong support. I doubt this will be the reversal, even if it serves as support in the short term. When this level is finally broken, weak hands will be apparent and panic selling will set in. This could easily smash us below $5000 and finally meet the levels that big money has been eyeing since the crash. Consolidation is expected between the resistance of 66xx and support of 57xx. Short term, a push upward to the 9EMA, which is aligned with the resistance shown on the chart (66xx), would not surprise me. If price reaches this level of resistance, I will place a short trade with a TP in the 61xx region and a SL in the 69xx region. If this region is met, a quick melt back down will happen because I strongly believe the weekly candle will close bearish. As seen with the highlighted green squares, every time we have had a bearish weekly candle, it is followed by another bearish candle. History tells us that this weeks candle will close bearish. Time will tell, happy trading!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Musgravio97
ETCBTC without emotion interference The blueish rectangle showing very peculiar price action which took place on the first half of august. This strong bullish movement was wiped out with couple of days and pull it down below the most important support/resistance level for this pair which is 0.02. I can see 2 possible scenarios the pair will be pull down by 200 EMA on 4H chart and most likely 0.02 level will no be breached or Pair will do another attempt to go above mentioned level and then it will be pulled down by 200 EMA towards 0.01. If my scenario is correct ETCBTC should stop for while around 0.013700 and then try to reach 0.01. The pinkish rectangle refers to strong support/resistance area when closing short position is not a bad idea.
Short
by Krystiannwk
2