EMAS
USOIL - Bearish analysis part 2Not much of an additional analysis here, rather more of an update. Take a look at my previous post to get an idea of the EMA rule I use so that this makes a bit more sense.
As I mentioned in the last post, we fell through the 21EMA (red one) and failed to get back above it, which generally means we're headed to the 55 EMA (yellow one). Well, that pretty much just happened, so now we have to wait and see if it holds. If the price falls through and close beneath the 55, chances are it'll run up and retest it, possibly wicking the 34 or 21 EMAs (orange & red) before getting b**** slapped into downward oblivion. Where is oblivion, I hear you ask? That be the Sasha Grey EMA. Or the 200 EMA if you have more of a thing for numbers. No judgement here.
That being said, we do have support levels that could be cushy enough for a bounce. That is where I'd expect one to happen if it does fall. However, if it doesn't fall, our next target would be the 21 EMA for a candle body close with the 55 EMA possibly receiving a good wicking.
Another fun thing to keep in mind before I end this - the closer the EMAs are together, the harder it is for price action to rise through them. Think of them like brick walls. If the walls are all back to back, they form one thick wall that would need a huge amount of force to break through. If they're spaced apart however, you'd need a much smaller amount of force to break through one by one, making it easier to get through them. When you see them really spaced apart, have a look at your other indicators such as RSI for bullish/bearish divergences and volume. Chances are that when you get the divergence, the spacing of the EMAs could give you a great idea of how big a move there is to come. If the volume significantly tapers off, it's highly likely the move will be explosive.
Hope this was useful - stay safe!
Next Bear Plan for Gold Hi, I see pullback could be over, and we are gradually going back to Bear tracks.
Trade Well,
Alex
Consolidated Support & Resistance 1 WTF//TTK Prestige*It is a consolidated Support and Resistance as you all can see!
*Also marked the previous move of the Trend by forming the almost Identical Flag-Pattern.
*Broke both the 20 & 50 EMA's with a good bullish momentum, that made our stop-loss clear!
*i.e., the ideal S-L would be around the previous week Green Candle.
*Let the trend take a little retrace, then take the position after your own Analysis and Due Diligence
*The trend is bullish as of now but the momentum purely depends upon the next week's opening and close.
Final move for Bears?hi, I see gold will do one more low before significant rebound to complete wave 4 then final push south for wave 5.
USD/CAD Shorts trade plan 25 July 2022Structure:
- H4 downstrend
- D divergence playing effect and break of prev daily low
- W stochs crossed down showing support to overall bias
1. Div - m30 /m5/ m3 (3)
2. stoch cross downs - M45, H1, H2 (3)
3. MA bounces - H3/H4 (2)
Enter with pending stops below prev higher low (HL) to be safe and go for a simple 1:3 or 1:4.
Note to self: >= 5 confluences to have the confidence to execute already, don't need to overthink it
NZD/USD Longs trade plan 25 July 2022Structure:
- H4 uptrend
- D candles broke all previous highs and showing momentum
- W stochs crossed up to show support to buy set ups along the way
1. Div - m3/m5 (2)
2. stoch cross ups - M45, H1, H2 (3)
3. MA bounces - M15, M30, H2 (3)
Enter with pending stops above prev lower high (LH) to be safe and go for a simple 1:3 or 1:4.
Note to self: >= 5 confluences to have the confidence to execute already, don't need to overthink it
High Tension Lines In 1 WTF//CDSL*Let it cross the 50 EMA with confident volumes in 1 DTF!
*The trend may go Up-Wards or Down-Wards, because of that we are supposed to follow strict SL.
*There is lot of bearish candles before in the trend, but I see something is changing in the trend!
LET'S WATCH!!!
ETH Resistance & Support (2 weeks+)As ETH starts to look like the market indicator (up over 30% against BTC since the bottom), this is a brief outlook on future resistance and support. Above the lower lines of support, the bottom of the daily EMA ribbon (1340) could be another strong area of support On the other side, horizontal resistance can be seen on the 4hr Beyond that the weekly EMA ribbon will cover a wide range of resistance between 1900 and 2400 The 20 and 50 week MA fall in that same range Also worth noting the bearish cross of the 20 & 50 week MA, and bearish flip of weekly EMA
USOIL - Bearish analysis & lessonG'day all, hope you're well!
I don't usually publish my ideas, but I thought this might be worth a look since I've been experimenting with the effects of EMAs and Fibs on charts in what I like to call "Order of Priority". So, let's dig in. Before you read on, you hereby acknowledge that you will possibly be exposed to crappy chart jokes that may or may not include some form of innuendo and will likely be dad level, as well as a long-winded explanation.
There are a few things happening in this chart that point to a short term downside target or at least $80/barrel - possibly lower.
The first is the obvious giant 'W' pattern whose target was suspiciously met to within a buck or 2. The way I measured it is by running a Fib retracement from the last high prior to the W to the first wick after the lowest wick - I did this to find the .618 (dotted line Fib retracement on the left). I ignored the major drop as it was an anomaly. The wick after it lined up with the previous market bottom which made more technical sense. The .618 lines up perfectly with the 'W' neckline, so now we have a beginning and end point for a measured move - from the .618 down to the legitimate wick. Move that line upward and you have your target that met with scary precision. W patterns usually retrace to the neckline which is usually a .5 Fib after the move plays out, which lines up with the .618 Fib that we used to find the neckline. If it retraces lower, it's usually a speedy move to the .618 before becoming range-bound at around the .5. I've found this to be pretty typical of 'W' patterns in general.
Secondly, we have the RSI and MACD indicators looking all depressed. A solid bearish divergence on the RSI and a downticking MACD, like 2 emo teenagers fighting over a black tshirt. In my experience, bearish divergences don't tend to reset until they first hit oversold territory, and there's a bit of a way to go before that happens. That distance in the RSI from the current position to oversold lines up nicely with a price movement to the $64 - $70 zone, assuming there's a quick buy-up. The MACD usually doesn't confirm a reset for the next move up until it falls below the median line and crosses upward again with conviction. Conviction is key here, it can't be a half-assed cross over like those 2 emo kids.
Thirdly, we have the EMAs. The values I use are Fib values: 9 (blue), 13 (purple), 21 (red), 55 (yellow), 200 (Sasha Grey), 600 (light grey). There's a nifty rule I found works great after major moves:
* If after a major move the price falls below the 9 EMA and fails to get back above on retest, we're going to the 21 EMA.
* If the price falls through the 21 EMA and fails to get back above on retest, we're going to the 55 EMA.
* If the price falls through the 55 EMA and fails to get back above on retest, we're going to the 200 EMA.
* You get the point, same for the 600 EMA.
Right now, it's failed to get back above the 21 EMA on retest. Guess what the next target is? Now here's the kicker, if it falls through the 55 EMA, the 200 EMA is waiting for the price right at the neckline of the W pattern, with the 600 EMA resting right on the 0.5 Fib retracement when measured from the major low to the major high (dotted line Fib retracement on the right). Coincidence? Who knows.
"OK smartass, so what happens when we fall through ALL the EMAs then?" I hear you ask. First, don't be a wickhead. There's an order to these things. Everything has its own gravity in the charts, which is why I described everything above in that order. What has the most gravity, I believe, is the .618. That's at around $46 - $49. If the price falls through all the EMAs, that is the next major safe target. I say safe because of risk level. Sure, it could wick as low as the thick blue support trend line, but price will generally equalise at the .618 over time and it's generally where buy orders fill when these EMAs are broken. Placing any below there is an idea, but they're less likely to fill.
"Damn it Shifty, why didn't you just call the .618 instead of wasting our time with your crap about colourful lines and levels that sound like pasta?". Well, because each of those steps has it's own trading opportunities, particularly the EMA rule. On a lower timeframe, the trades in the EMA zones alone when you reference the weekly are gorgeous.
I hope this is helpful to someone out there who could play around with these concepts on other charts. I have other rules that I've come up with to do with Fibs and EMAs, so if you liked this crappy dad-joke of a lesson, let me know in the comments and I might go into more stuff down the line :)
Stay safe all and happy trading!
GOLD Pullback started?hi, I see pullback opportunity up to 1794-1817 region before Gold resume its 5th wave.
one can trade long on this pullback or you want to wait until sell region at the end of wave 4 and catch the 5th wave.
trade well,
Alex
AFRM bottom near?Price broke out of trendline, and rejected at 50 EMA (blue line)
Note how it hasnt been able to break above it since December. Price is at it again, the difference now it that the EMAs are compressing. That could indicate a bottom.
I want to see a daily candle closing above the 50 EMA then we can try to ride this from the bottom.
24.62 has been resistance for almost a month so i am interested to see what price does if it tries to break above it
High Tension Lines In 1 WTF//SONATSOFT*High-Tension lines alert!
*First Target is 10% just above UPPER TREND LINE as of now.
*Look for bullishness and volumes if it breaks the UPPER TREND LINE in future.
*SL should be put below the support of H-T Lines.
*If EMA's(20&50) are broken with high volumes up-side then continue holding the stock.
SBIN starting for an UPTREND DIRECTION hey guys ,
SBIN stock was moving in a DOWNTREND.
this stock was following a pattern called -
TRIANGLE PATTERN
but now , this stock has CROSSED it's RESISTANCE .
this stock has crossed it's resistance before 5-6 days and now this ato k has retested,
and we can see a great GREEN CANDLES
ALSO ,
the 20 DAY EMA has crossed the 50 DAY EMA .
THEREFORE, i think that you can buy this stock and
i have marked the RR RATIO , TARGET AND SL for y'all .
BUT FIRST CONSIDER THE GLOBAL SITUATION
1. INFLATION
2. WAR
3. RISING BANK RATES
AFTERWARDS YOU CAN BUY THIS STOCK AND EARN GIGH RETURNS
SBIN - STATE BANK OF INDIA'
😀😀
Good zone to buy.Hi gold approaching end of wave 3 and I see good opportunity to buy for correction towards wave 4.
Check my previous post to see to relate current analysis and position.
Trade well,
alex
BTC Long Term And Short Term AnalysisBTC LONG TERM - On the 1D there is a red spot but now it is at support and could bounce back up to the topside of the range. There is a green spot on the 4H so if it close's above 19900 on the 4H I can see it testing 20500.
BTC SHORT TERM - On the 1H it has closed above the 21 ema for the first time since 4 days ago. What we don't want to see is rejection at this point because that will make another lower high, if it does that then it could come further down. On the 15M it could have a little pull back down towards 19700 and put in a higher low.
BTC OVERALL - Overall I think Bitcoin will bounce soon as long as it close's above 19900 on the 4H
Let me know your thughts in the comments and like my idea!!
BTC Long Term And Short Term AnalysisBTC LONG TERM - The bullish divergence looks like it's playing out on the 1D and close above the 21 EMA yesterday which means it could go and test the 55 ema at 25000, so I don't think this bounce is over just yet.
BTC SHORT TERM - On the 1H it looks like it wants to put in a temporary top and pull back a little bit. There is a tiny bit of bearish divergence too, so that could lead to a little pull back on the shorter time frames.
BTC OVERALL - I can see BTC having a pull back today and carry on it's bounce later on today or going into the weekend.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments and like my idea!!
BTC Long Term And Short Term AnalysisBTC LONG TERM - I still think this bounce will carry on to about 21700, the 4H has printed a green spot and it's held the 55 EMA. On the 1D it still looks like it wants to test the 21 EMA at 21200, I think if the weekly closes above 22000 this week we could see a bounce up to higher 20000s.
BTC SHORT TERM - On the 1H it still looks bullish and looks like it wants to test higher with a green spot. It remains above the 21 and 55 EMA, if it stays above the EMAS I can see it testing 21000.
BTC OVERALL - I think because it looks bullish on all time frames from the 4H downwards I can see it going up to at least 21000.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments and like my idea!!