Six conviction trades for 2025: seize the new market narrativeWhile developed economies have shifted to easing policies, opening the way for a broadening of the market away from technology mega stocks, the economic outlook remains uncertain. The violent reaction to DeepSeek’s launch early in the year clearly highlights the nervousness of markets and their ultra concentration. In the first few weeks of the year, the Trump administration has also been implementing its agenda at breakneck speed, leading to heightened uncertainties around trade frictions, inflation dynamics, and geopolitical upheaval. In that context, it is important to rethink investment positionings that may have worked in 2024, acknowledging the potential for volatility and numerous changes of directions.
In this uncertain environment, WisdomTree’s research team presents its six highest-conviction investment ideas for 2025.
1. Can the Magnificent Seven dominate for a third year in a row?
Few storylines have captured the investor imagination recently as much as the Magnificent Seven —a cohort of mega-cap technology stocks that propelled US equity benchmarks to remarkable gains. While these tech giants remain influential, we see scope for 2025 to become a year of ‘broadening out’.
Macro rationale
Resilience in corporate fundamentals and earnings growth: high quality growth stocks continue to be supported by strong fundamentals and growth could benefit from continued momentum after two years of domination.
Value resilience and broadening: with uncertainty increasing around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) trajectory and inflationary pressures created by potential tariffs, value stocks may benefit and offer some diversification. Energy and Financials should also benefit from a wave of deregulation under the new Trump regime.
The case for a value/growth barbell strategy in US equities: a barbell strategy between US large cap quality Growth and US large cap Value equities leverages complementary strengths to navigate 2025. This approach allows investors to:
Capitalise on the Value factor’s extreme discount to Growth.
Enable investors to capture opportunities across market cycles.
Create a balance between growth potential and valuation-driven safety.
2. Unlocking value in Japan
Japan’s economic transformation story continues to gain traction as the country moves beyond four decades of stagnant nominal growth and sporadic deflationary episodes. While 2024 was the best year for Japanese equities since 1989, we believe that the Japanese renaissance still has further room to run.
Macro rationale
Resilience in corporate fundamentals and earnings growth: high quality growth stocks continue to be supported by strong fundamentals and growth could benefit from continued momentum after two years of domination.
Favourable currency tailwinds: the yen’s multi-year weakness augments the competitiveness of Japanese exporters, fuelling strong earnings from overseas revenue. Stable core inflation (outside of food) and talks about bond purchases by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) indicate that the BOJ will prevent the yen from appreciating too much.
Earnings and tariffs: Corporate earnings growth remains very strong after 2 years of improvement, and our analysis shows that the market is underreacting to those fundamentals. Furthermore, Japan may be able to secure a tariff carve-out from the US, leading to strengthening competitive positioning versus Europe and China.
3. A Trump card for emerging markets small caps
Emerging markets (EM) have struggled over the past decade, underweighted by many global investors and burned by repeated episodes of dollar strength, trade frictions, and slower growth in China. However, the narrative is a lot more positive going into 2025.
Macro rationale
An EM comeback: with the Federal Reserve maintaining an accommodative stance on monetary policy, China unleashing coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a wave of EM sovereign ratings upgrades, tailwinds have been picking up strongly for emerging markets.
But some clouds remain on the horizon: unfortunately, the Trump administration’s focus on a strong dollar and tariffs could slow down the recovery.
EM smalls caps as the solution: EM small caps typically derive a larger share of revenues from their home countries, insulating them somewhat from US tariffs or the dollar ‘s strength. In a scenario where the global trade outlook remains uncertain, these domestically oriented firms can thrive on internal consumer growth, as rising middle-class demographics in markets like India, Indonesia, and parts of Latin America continue to drive local consumer demand.
4. Cybersecurity at the crossroads of AI, geopolitical tensions, and quantum computing
The first few weeks of 2025 saw a resurgence of software stocks, with cybersecurity companies jumping in front of semiconductors or AI stocks. Continued corporate and government spending, as well as the imperative to protect the AI revolution, position cybersecurity for robust growth in 2025.
Macro rationale
AI’s security gap: rapid AI adoption brings higher data volumes and more software vulnerabilities, forcing enterprises to bolster their cyber defences. We expect a wave of spending on next-generation cloud solutions, zero-trust architecture, and quantum-proof encryption.
Elevated geopolitical risks: heightened tensions—from continuing conflicts and new trade disputes—translate into more frequent state-sponsored cyber-attacks. This, in turn, drives increased defence budgets and corporate vigilance.
US deregulation: since the US election, software companies have benefitted from deregulation expectations. Cybersecurity, cloud, and blockchain posted some of the strongest thematic gains in the first few weeks of the year.
5. Precious potential: silver’s breakout moment
While gold often steals the headlines, silver has quietly staged a meaningful rally, underpinned by both safe-haven demand and its essential role in green technologies, such as solar photovoltaics. 2025 could be silver’s ‘catch-up’ year.
Macro rationale
Haven meets industrial: silver exhibits a unique duality—part precious metal and part industrial commodity. If risk aversion flares, silver typically follows gold upward. If global growth holds steady, silver benefits from manufacturing demand. Countries worldwide, led by China and the US, are rapidly expanding solar capacity. Newer solar cell technology requires even higher silver content, providing a price tailwind.
Gold correlation: geopolitical tensions and looser monetary policy are offering gold new tailwinds, and silver will also benefit from the catch-up effect.
Limited supply growth: silver’s byproduct nature makes supply tight, as mining companies are not incentivised to expand production simply for silver alone. This supply-demand imbalance supports a more bullish price outlook.
6. Institutional adoption of digital assets is redefining multi-asset portfolios
After navigating a series of regulatory speed bumps, digital assets, led by bitcoin, have entered 2025 with growing mainstream acceptance. Key catalysts have included the expansion of physical bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) listings across major exchanges and the gradual emergence of regulatory frameworks that remove operational frictions. We believe most multi-asset portfolios remain structurally under-allocated to cryptocurrencies as a neutral position in digital assets (as illustrated by the market portfolio) should be around 1.5%.
Macro rationale
Portfolio diversification: bitcoin’s correlation to equities and bonds is low, providing a diversification benefit. Even small allocations have, historically, improved risk-adjusted returns.
Institutional inflows: pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds are steadily warming to digital assets, pointing to a rising tide of flows. As coverage by mainstream analysts grows, digital assets are increasingly viewed through the lens of asset class fundamentals rather than speculation alone.
Technological leaps: alongside bitcoin, developments in Ethereum scaling, stablecoins for global payments, and the tokenisation of real-world assets are reshaping how capital markets function. The resulting network effects may boost confidence in the broader crypto ecosystem.
Conclusion
In an environment that may reward conviction and flexibility, these six investment ideas offer distinct avenues to harness the opportunities emerging in 2025. Whether you seek cyclical upside, defensive yield, or secular growth themes, we believe these high-conviction calls exemplify WisdomTree’s mission: delivering innovative, research-driven solutions in a world of constant change.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees, or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Emerging
Is Saudi Arabia the next new Dubai? As we go into 2025...
Have you ever thought about Saudi Arabia? If not, you are now!
Is it going to be the next new Dubai - Time will tell.
We have Trump Tower built and many other hard assets increasing within Saudi and investors seem to extending further. The growth of Saudi not only commodities advantage they hold, but the other relation matters.
That's the fact jack - Residential real estate prices and rents continue to soar in Saudi Arabia. The cities of Riyadh and Jeddah saw year-on-year sales prices jump by 10% and 5%, respectively, in the first half of 2024, according to property consultancy company JLL's KSA Market Dynamics Report H1 2024.
I'd personally be a dip buyer if we break out of this wedge and decline further for a medium term. If we are to break higher out of wedge there's great target areas.
I could go on further to discuss macroeconomic factors, see further on my Substack about 2025 outlook - Saudi Arabia, other EM countries and much more!
All the best for 2025 - Let's make it rain!
Trade Journal | Empowering Your Trading Journey
3 Emerging Crypto to watch in 2025Since you enjoyed my previous post about 3 Crypto OGs to watch this month...
Here's an interesting one about 3 Emerging Crypto to watch in 2025:
BINANCE:ARBUSDT
ARB rejected a strong a strong support and demand zone marked in red.
Waiting for a break above $0.85 structure marked in blue to activate the next bullish impulse towards the $1.5 mark.🎯
BINANCE:TIAUSDT
TIA rejected a strong a strong support and demand zone marked in red.
Waiting for a break above $5.7 structure marked in blue to activate the next bullish impulse towards the $10 mark.🎯
BINANCE:MKRUSDT
MKR rejected a strong a strong support and demand zone marked in red.
Waiting for a break above $1700 structure marked in blue to activate the next bullish impulse towards the $2500 mark.🎯
Which altcoins would you like me to cover next?
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Emerging markets (EEM) - Bear Flag targets $18Back in 2021, I posted about Emerging markets with a title "EEM. Emerging markets could drop within the last leg down"
The plan plays out well so far and I found another educational pattern for you on it today.
The Bear Flag appears in the chart as I spotted it on time. The price is still within the Flag
and breakdown below the downside of the pattern would trigger the continuation of the downtrend after this consolidation.
The target is located at the distance of the Pole subtracted from the downside of the Flag.
$18 is the bottom of the large range and the aim for the Bear Flag.
This is the beauty of the patterns as they match with other type of analysis.
The next decade belongs to Latin AmericaFor the past decade, decision-makers in major banks and multinational companies have been focusing their attention on one of the hottest "growth frontiers": emerging markets.
During much of the 1980's the prospects in most emerging countries were quite bleak: the debt crisis, inflation and domestic political turbulence.
Then a number of "economic miracles" began to pop up, drawing attention to specifically Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Eastern Europe and toward the end of the 80's, Latin America.
Latin America struggled with the heavy burdens of the debt crisis, hyperinflation, recession and the transition from authoritarian to democratic governments. Most analysts call the 80's Latin America's "Lost Decade." Most governments in the area came to the realization that they were gradually becoming irrelevant to the investment decisions of major international players and that they would slowly but surely lose ground to Asia and Eastern Europe in the competition for capital and employment opportunities. The region's trade with the rest of the world increased but at a slower pace than in countries at similar stages of their development. Latin America largely remained an exporter of primary goods. In fact, beside the popping off of just particular industry sectors and multinational companies, Latin America never saw a bullrun as a continent.
After lagging behind big players like India and China during the Era of Markets (1989–2019), where there was a remarkable increase in global economic interconnectedness and rapid adoption of digital technologies, now it's time to shine for Latin America and to catch up to OECD economies.
The next decade is expected to be a transformative period for Latin America with many countries experiencing rapid growth and development.
Economic Growth : Latin America's economic growth is expected to continue, driven by a combination of factors such as increased trade, investment, and infrastructure development. The region's large and growing middle class is also driving consumer spending and demand for goods and services.
Regional Integration : Latin America is also expected to strengthen its regional integration, with initiatives such as the Pacific Alliance and the Mercosur bloc aiming to promote trade and cooperation among member states. This will help to increase economic competitiveness and attract foreign investment.
Demographic Dividend : Latin America is experiencing a demographic dividend, with a large and growing population of young people entering the workforce. This will provide a significant boost to economic growth and innovation, as well as help to address social and economic challenges.
Innovation and Technology : Latin America is also expected to become a hub for innovation and technology, with many countries investing in digital infrastructure and innovation hubs. This will help to drive economic growth and create new opportunities for entrepreneurship and job creation.
Emerging countries now represent the clear majority of the world's population. Their growth prospects range from 4 to 5% per year in Latin America, 6 to 7% in East Asia and up to 10% in China. These are typically two to three times the expected growth rates of developed countries.
In all of these countries, growth will invariably entail the expansion of new middle classes, with outsized needs for consumer durables, housing and mobility.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index e.g. captures large and mid cap representation across 5 emerging markets countries in Latin America. This index is one of the most trusted measures of how these stock markets in the region are performing. However, all the constituent countries do not have a proportional representation in the index. The country weights in the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index are mostly Brazil 46.6%, Mexico 36.51%, Chile 9.79%, Colombia 4.17% and Peru 2.93% with sectors like materials, energy, consumer staples, common services and financials.
Looking at the Index from a technical macro standpoint we can see clearly almost 20 years of an (Wyckoff) accumulation period (with the launch in 1990 probably even longer) and sideways movement resulting in a kind of created bull flag signaling a continuous coming-in of buyers and losing steam of sellers.
Furthermore the monthly RSI is printing higher lows and higher highs which is an indicator for a steady uptrend and positive momentum shift towards the upside.
No doubt, Latin America is gonna flourish the next decade(s) marking a significant transformation, with the region poised to emerge as a major player on the global stage.
MSCI EM and DXYDollar and EM markets.
A non Brainer with 1:1 correlation.
The DXY (black line) is inverted to show the coorelation with EM.
Strenthening Dollar means weaker EM and vice versa.
Soince with rate ris eback inti the limelight, the DXY should rally an dEM would be under pressure. The weakness of Chines Equity markets which makes up 31% of MSCI EM would also be a factor.
ECONOMIC UNITED STATES GDP compared with Other NationsThis chart illustrates the GNP of the USA compared with others over a period
of several decades. The USA is on a much slower trajectory of growth than
all the other countries on the chart except Russia and Ukraine. This
includes the Eurozone, China, India, Mexico, and others. This trend
has been in place for decades. It makes for a poor prognosis for
the future of the US economically, no matter how much our politicians
and other influencers try to hide this.
Emerging MarketsThis is just a question for thought, not a trade recommendation: Could the Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ) be ready for a breakout?
It's quite rare to find a chart where price has consolidated and appears to be breaking out, and at the same time, the oscillators are ready to move up on both the higher and lower timeframes. This set up can lead to breakouts.
With that said, obviously, there are many headwinds. To name just a couple:
The VIX is at its trend line (support) and could easily oscillate up soon, causing most risk assets to drop lower.
This ETF is composed mainly of Chinese stocks which have been volatile and vulnerable to geopolitical events, not to mention Chinese and international stocks, in general, have typically underperformed the S&P 500 over the long term.
Traders are like surfers trying to catch waves. Sometimes the wave is a total dud. Sometimes the wave crests right when you get on. Almost always, waves crest while sub-currents on a lower degree are pulling back out. On some rare occasions, however, a large wave occurs because the currents on all levels converge and begin to swell roughly at the same time. This is happening right now to EMQQ. While the weekly oscillator appears to be the only noteworthy incongruent current, it is not in overbought territory, and there is no bearish divergence in the weekly RSI to warrant the possibility that a weekly oscillation down would have a strong downward bias. Additionally, there is a breakout on the weekly chart which, to some extent, undermines the effect of the oscillation down on that timeframe.
Only time will tell.
ADS (Adidas) BullishDaily Chart
Wait a possible emerging breakout and retest of the current downtrend
MACD is approaching the 0 with momentum
RSI has moved from the oversold Levels.
We have World Cup Football Promotion
Possible emerging Right Shoulder Formation (Head and Shoulders) then retrace to existing neckline.
3 Fib level extension targets.
EWZ Brazil, a commodities proxy is now in Wave 3 of IIIWith the current fear of recession & rising inflation in the US, a lot of funds will be flowing outside into emerging markets, China & also Brazil which is rich in commodities especially now that the dollar seems to be peaking out as foreign markets slowly becomes more attractive to invest in.
EWZ may retrace down first to fill the gap at 33.65 green line. A bounce from here will enable a near 20% rally to the 0.618 red zone at 40 to 42.43.
42.43 will be a strong pivot point since it is the intersection of the 0.50 red dotted FIB level of my slanted FIB CHANNEL with 1.272 FIB of the recent wave 2. EWZ is currently in the wave 3 of 3 of a larger wave III.
Not trading advice
EMBASKET are on bearish momentum! 10th March 2022Prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 8388 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 8305 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Prices sre trading below our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bearish bias.
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$PAGS: to make you BAGS?Today we are witnessing a sharp turn around in Emerging Markets $EEM after the Jackson Hole meeting. $IWM a strong indicator of risk tolerance has seen a sharp move back up into it's middle pivot. Could the continued low rate environment and strong economy be enough to continue the rush into risk-on assets? Keep a close eye on $EWZ though (Brazil ETF in which PAGS is located) to pin point entries. On the technical side of things, keep an eye on entries in between the two trend lines in which the current candle stick is located between and stops outside of the bottom two trendlines. I'd look to scale in over the next couple of weeks and see how strong the dips in $IWM, $HYG and $EEM are to see how much continuation is possible to the upside. Good luck traders!
$SOHU: China Come Back Poster Child?SOHU has been showing terrific relative strength against a basket of other Chinese ADR's and the KWEB etf. Last quarter was a 400% earnings upside surprise, and technically speaking, you could look at this as a large cup and handle pattern trying to break to the up side. At symmetry here, could this be a tremendous value buy? Or will the CCP keep up the antics? Stay tuned!
$TAN $SOL etc long term come back?Hello,
The solar sector as seen by $TAN appears to be ready to stage a come back. Money has started to flow into the sector as seen on the CMF and is displaying bullish behavior. On book volume has crossed the average and appears to be showing accumulation of solar stocks. Momentum is returning to this sector. Over the summer months Jun-August we will probably see a solar come back. My favorites for this are
$JKS $TAN $SOL and $FSLR
Best of luck. As always, I am not responsible for your trades. Control your risk. I am not responsible for your profit or loss. I only provide ideas.
Fade the dollar move, long the Mexican Peso. The dollar has recently broken out against a variety of EMFX crosses. Interestingly, the picture is not the same in the G10 space. With the 10Y yield breaking higher, the narrative is that foreign investors are suddenly attracted to US yield and the dollar receives a bid as a result. We believe it is simply due to rapid growth and inflation expectations changing in the US to the upside. This is bullish to the equity market and bullish risk in general. Add to the cocktail the mix of monetary and fiscal policy in most of the world, and you have tailwinds that will send EM markets higher. Banxico recently cut rates citing soft inflation, however, the majority of Mexico data remains rate-of-change positive. Technically, the dollar reached the 200day exponential moving average and broke out from the prior downtrend. We are fading this as a "fake" breakout. Moreover, we wouldn't be surprised to see dealers hedging gamma above the 20.50 level, causing the slight overshoot. We enter long MXNUSD at 20.80, with a stop at 21, targeting a return to 19.54, where we will book most of the position, and keep SOME in case we see a follow-through downside break.