Buying Colombia equity here. $ICOL Colombia is a high-beta EM country running a twin-deficit. These exposures turned bullish in November when the dollar started falling more precipitously, and the global risk backdrop improved. Dollar weakness is good for commodity exporting EM's, who price commodities in dollars. Moreover, Colombia provides significant beta to Oil prices, which are evidently bullish at the current time. The chart above shows ICOL overlaid with USDCOP (inverted.) We believe it is worth starting a SMALL position in Colombia here, playing a reversal to the top of the daily Bollinger band.
Emerging
Emerging Markets BreakoutAs COVID-19 Cases start to ease globally, markets are responding with a breakout higher. EEM (MSCI World Index ETF) has recently broken out above its $41 resistance level and consolidating today, providing a good risk/reward for a long position. With a Weekly Chart that has broken above its channel resistance and Daily Chart breaking higher, we are targeting $44 and $47 to the upside. The trade that we are using to play this breakout with limited risk is a Call Debit Vertical Spread: Buy to Open 1 EEM Aug 21, 2020 42/46 Call Vertical @ $1.54 Debit
BUY TO OPEN Aug 21, 2020 $42 CALL @ $1.88
SELL TO OPEN Aug 21, 2020 $46 CALL @ $0.34
Click to Track Trade with OptionsPlay: app.optionsplay.com
A COUNTRY almost in DEFAULT (again). Who's next?--- Please if you find this informative don't forget to give a like. Thank you! ---
Just redrawing old ideas from a year ago... Nothing to redraw in fact due it seems they are going to default sooner or later for 19th time in history.
You can check for yourself in the related idea just a year ago how the country situation has not improved.
This is just a reflection of the symptoms that can already be felt in other countries of the world.
Almost all emerging countries suffering high inflation and a continued devaluation of its currency against the dollar, this won't finish well. Other countries to watch: Turkey, Brazil, Australia... all against the dollar that would fall the last.
What are your thoughts?
Here please you can find a little bit of knowledge and fresh news I wanted to share with you.
www.youtube.com
Keep safe!
FXCM's EMBASKET Showing Signs of Weakness on H1The left chart show's FXCM's emerging markets currency index, EMBASKET is black below its 50-day SMA. Moreover the SMA is pointing down with the RSI on the bearish side of 50 (blue rectangle). The right chart shows the hourly time frame. Here the green 5-hour EMA has crossed below the orange 10-hour EMA (green ellipse) and the RSI has moved below 50 (bright green rectangle). These are bearish developments and if the EMAs develop further angle and separation, the index will be showing further weak
Global Emerging Markets - Macro Outlook & CommentaryTraders & Investors,
We anticipate emerging markets to be vulnerable to a macro slowdown following the virus outbreak in China. Emerging Markets have a high dependency on Chinese demand and consumption which often creates a very strong correlation between domestic activity/trade and the performance of these markets.
The effects of the virus are prominent with analyst expectations of substantial drops in Chinese Q1 GDP, dovish positioning of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, sell off in Crude/Brent, gaps lower in Asian Equities and flows into risk-off assets.
Following the euphoric bull run in 17'/18' and pullback into fair value, we see price correcting for a move lower into our buyside floor and macro swing targets of 34.0x.
We have added sellside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios
-------------------------
We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform.
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Until next time,
Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
Long Saudi Arabia Given recent tensions in the Middle East, the Saudi Arabian ETF sold off and back-tested the previous resistance trend-line. The ETF has now rebounded off this trend-line, and looks bullish to continue to the July highs. Given the slightly weaker dollar macro picture, EM countries should be supported. KSA is a good play for a de-escalation in the Middle East and continued EM strength.
Tyson technical/fundamental bull analysisFundamental analysis
With all the hype around Beyond Meat meatless burgers. Tyson (TSN) who is a now official competitor on this semi-new (not only for vegetarian) market could be a gainer.
Technical analysis
RSI @48 trending higher (could be stronger)
OBV confirming at all time high
We made a head and shoulders (shown on chart), with a positive uptrend on the support level.
Price target as well as stop-loss limit are drawn in the chart.
Happy trading!
dorfmanmaster
Don't get caught by Emerging markets current euphoria (EEM)Current rise in emerging markets could be temporary as it is a pullback
after a breakdown below the support of consolidation.
To resume down the price should break below blue support.
EEM - Short - $40 targetEEM which can be thought as "Emerging Markets" looks fucked to me.
Short this.
Baring a sudden trade deal this week (unlikely), EEM could see sub $40.
The puts I purchased last week have already doubled in value. :)
From a TA standpoint, let's review.
Price is below the green line (bearish) but bounced off support in the last 10 minutes of the trading day.
Thank you algo panic buying.
The price could also find support at the .618 line or $40.62 but the .786 price of $39.47 lines up rather neatly with the supporting trend line.
Time frame: end of the month, possibly by 5/17.
INDICE VIX (VOLATILIDAD) GATILLA ALZA HACIA CRASH EMERGENTECBOE:VIX TVC:VIX AMEX:VIXY AMEX:VIXY
TAL COMO ADELANTARA OPORTUNANMENTE, NUNCA EXISTIERON AVANCES DE NEGOCIACION ENTRE EEUU Y CHINA CON RESPECTO HACIA LOS ARANCELES.
SINO, UNA ESTRATEGIA COORDINADA CON FONDOS DE INVERSION PRESOS DE POSICIONES IRREALIZABLES, YA QUE SE POSTERGO DICHA CONCRECION DE NEGOCIACION EN TRES OPORTUNIDADES, ALGO QUE LA SECUENCIA DE PISOS ESTABLECIDOS EN EL DOLAR YUAN FX_IDC:USDCNY .
WALL STREET A TRAVES DE LA MANIPULACION DEL VIXY (ETF DEL VIX) PUDO LLEGAR A ESTABLECER MAXIMOS CUANDO EN REALIDAD , EL MUNDO DE LOS MERCADOS EMERGENTES ESTABLECIERON ONDA B) CONTRATENDENCIAL.
LA SALIDA FUERTE DEL INDICE VIX HACIA UN PRIMER IMPULSO CERCANO A 21 DOLARES, GATILLA TIPO CRASH, PERO LA SECUENCIA DEBERA SER PROGRESIVA PARA ENTRAR EN CLIMAX ENTRE JULIO-NOVIEMBRE, AL ESTILO SUBPRIME EEUU, PERO CON IMPORTACION POR CRISIS FINANCIERA EMERGENTE, Y ACTIVACION CRISIS BANCA EUROPEA CON CONSECUENCIAS EN ASIA.
Expect a Downturn in EM If you Expect a Downturn in the USIts not quite a great idea to invest in EM if one is expecting a downturn as EM will be significantly hit from drying up liquidity via outward capital flows and lower investment. Happened in 2008 with the liquidity crisis and again in 2011 with the EU sovereign debt crisis. We can see this relationship between developed markets and emerging markets through a correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 and the most liquid emerging markets ETF in the world EM. Moreover, EM is vulnerable to a Chinese financial crisis as well if the Chinese can't figure out how to lower their debt levels which they really havn't yet. Either way, I would avoid EM at these price levels.
Emerging Market ETFThis ETF looks to continue to boom especially after the China and US have optimistic trade talks. Mainly China companies inside this ETF.
USD/CHF Stong Reversal Bearish Setup#USDCHF, @USDCHF, usd/chf suspect make double top, price may spike to catch stop loss, longer term down for targets 0.9910 & 0.9850.
S&P 500 entering an ORDER BLOCK | TAPE READINGThe price is edging up. If you look closely, you will see an Elliot 5 Wave impulse. If you know about fractals, you should have that in your trading arsenal because the Elliot Wave principle is a natural, sensational and accurate tool in 'forecasting' price action.
The waves move in harmony according to the Fibonacci patterns and spirals. The Fibonacci is the actual backbone of the Elliot wave principle (although i haven't included it in this price level - even though I have, by virtue of Elliot). The US economy is projected to be moving down. With the recent trade wars, French (fuel) tax riots, weakening global demand, drop in oil, and massive debt, the US should start a process of deleveraging soon.
The SPX is reflective of the global economy. The markets have been rising this year, the biggest performers in the upcoming quarters should be emerging economies by virtue of the law of diminishing returns. The global landscape is changing right before our eyes as China takes the stage as the the leading super power. Overall, Trump's Trade War was a misdirected battle that's turning out to be a blessing for all emerging economies because it's happening on the backdrop of President Xi's aggressive, futuristic and rather ambitious One Belt One Road Initiative.
The global landscape is going to be shaped by the actions of changing global movement and emerging drivers in the global macro economy.
ISHARES MSCI EMERGING INDEX FUND (EEM): A Lower Low Until S1?Find Winning Trades In Seconds >> efcindicator.com (Special Discount)
ISHARES MSCI EMERGING INDEX FUND (EEM): A Lower Low Until S1 Is Expected.
EEM. Emerging Index Fund. Possible map of WXYThis is how I see the map for EEM.
It contradicts with the news background as EM countries are under pressure now.
But this is how I see the wave count now.
The wave 5 to the upside is pending and we could see some relief for EM...temporarily.
Invalidation for this count is below the 38.32 when the wave 1 will be broken
Emerging markets is extremely bearishBearish shooting star pattern right into channel resistance and just below major resistance line. You'd have to off your rocker to buy EEM exposure here, not with Fed day next week.
Is bitcoin an emerging market currency?BTC mimics MSCI Emerging Markets Curr Index / US Dollar Index.
The similarity is visible! Bitcoin price is the green line.
Thanks to my friend @EnginSavas for this idea
USDTRY. Breakout of correction. Previous top is a target.The pair broke above the resistance finishing correction.
The previous top is the minimum target.
Risk/reward more than 2.
US Dollar moved in a mighty bullish move recently against all major and emerging market currencies after Fed billed the trim of its balance and secured the yield rise in December. US T-notes already dropped huge. Demand for USD will rise as risk free interest rate will inrease.
Ripple is the new EtherWhat we've seen the past few days from Ripple is a sustained reversal pattern since the all time lows of 0.12
There is renewed interest for this cryptocurrency and potential break from that 0.2 resistance. The downside is very limited.
But you should always place stops regardless.
Trade safe Trade well. Peace
TUR: Time to Invest in Turkey?With Price/Earnings of 9.3 Turkey is may be seen as good 'value' ...just ignore the other things like the impact of a failed coup, a weakening currency and a retreat by investors unnerved by political instability.
That said, the market is buying, with MSCI Turkey up 11% this year, and testing its upper side of the trend channel. At $37 its looking to break, and a price target of $42.5 to $46 looks achievable.
