Get started

Emergingmarkets

What If Smart Money Shifts from Traditional Companies to Crypto?This idea explores the potential scenario where smart money moves from traditional top 100 Nasdaq companies to the crypto space. As Nasdaq reaches its peak and becomes less attractive, blockchain companies offer more reasonable valuations, and the crypto market continues to open up, providing new opportunities. This shift could drive substantial growth in the blockchain and crypto sectors as traditional finance investors look for higher returns in emerging technologies.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by BMynameX
Tech Booms Versus Emerging MarketsWhen capitalism nearly died in 2008, major stock market indices experienced >50% drawdowns from all-time highs. After unprecedented interventions by the Federal Reserve — and a historic surge in government debt to GDP — tech, growth, and the S&P 500 have seen stellar returns. (QQQ, VUG, & SPY respectively above). On the other hand — small caps (VB), value (VTV), real estate (VNQ), developed markets (VEA), and emerging markets (IEMG) — have significantly underperformed. Tech companies have become more valuable than most countries’ GDP. Recently, the total market cap for top tech companies has surpassed $14T. Will the tech boom continue upwards or is it time for small caps plus value to mean revert to a fair historical share of the total market? Tech also leads dominance for the U.S. versus other developed and emerging markets. More recently, the divergence is especially striking in percent returns and drawdown visualizations since 2020.
AMEX:SPY
by MikeCoMacro
SINOSTAR PEC Analysis 6/25Disclosure: As of 6/24 I am long SINOSTAR PEC SGX:C9Q Sinostar PEC is a Chinese Petrochemical company listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. They operate through central and northern China. Their main operation is to extract LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) and process it to sell to manufacturers for fuel, scientific, and industrial purposes. ***Please Note: There are many aspects to their operations that any potential investor should know by reading the company's annual report, and of course none of this is to be taken as financial advice.*** - Management effectiveness: The company operates in a cyclical industry and has been consistently growing and profitable since 2014. The return on equity is consistently in above 10% and revenue growth looks stable. Margins have compressed in the last few years (Part of the whole cyclical thing), but that is exactly why I am looking now. Because the craziest thing about this company is the next section. - Valuation: The company is currently trading at 0.3x Book Value. Price/Earning Ratio of 1.7. Price/Cash Flow of 0.69. You may ask yourself why is the valuation so low? I asked the same thing and can think of risks, but they are all well compensated for in the valuation. The company has a healthy capital position and positive tailwinds. It is always important to consider the risks of currency fluctuations, inflation, increasing cost of goods. -Summary: Sinostar PEC seems to be a well run company with quality management, trading at very low prices. If you are looking for exposure to the Chinese economy and are comfortable with the risks (Currency fluctuation, Cyclicality, Liquidity, +more). This is one to research and consider.
CLong
by sihen999
3
Macro Monday 51 ~ The Philippines - The Trading Hub of AsiaMacro Monday 51 The Philippines – The Trading Hub of Asia The Philippine economy is currently the fastest-growing economy in South East Asia with solid promising growth projections for the next several years. The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report on East Asia and the Pacific showed that the Philippines and Cambodia will be the second highest growing economies in East Asia and the Pacific, next to Palau which is projected to grow by 12.4%. 10 Reasons to consider the Philippines for significant investment returns: 1. The GDP growth rate in the Philippines was 7.6% in 2022 and 5.6% in 2023. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.2% for 2024, as reported in their latest World Economic Outlook. This forecast is within the government’s revised 6-7% growth target. This puts the Philippines up there with India, the Ivory Coast and Ireland in terms of their GDP growth rate, all of which are some of the fastest growing economies in the world. 2. The population of the Philippines is 119 million with 28% (33 million people) of the population between the ages of 10-24, giving the country a sustained future labour market edge. The current labour market holds its own with 55% of the population between the ages of 20 – 64 (64 million people). Similar to India, the labour force is young, capable and likely to be sustained. 3. The Philippines are semiconductor specialists. The largest export of the Philippines is semiconductors. Semiconductors make up a significant portion of the Philippines’ exports, accounting for approximately 31.9% of the total electronic products exports. Electronic product exports in turn represent nearly 63% of the country’s total exports. 4. Additional to the above electronic products, the Philippines are also major exporters of manufacturing machinery and equipment, making them similar to South Korea in this respect (covered a few weeks ago). Broadly Manufactured Goods contributed the largest to the country’s total exports in January 2024 amounting to $4.83 bln or a share of 81.4 %. The Philippines are major machine and tool manufacturers (think Caterpillar Inc), however electronic products and semi-conductors are their forte making up the majority of their exports. 5. The second largest export of the Philippines is coconut oil, which has shown a significant annual increase in export value. It is one of the top commodity groups after electronic products in terms of export earnings. 6. The Philippines have a broad customer base in terms of exports. Their largest trading partner was the U.S. with an export value amounting to $902.3 million or a share of 15.2% to the country’s total exports in January 2024. The remaining top five major export trading partners for this month with their export values and percent shares to the total exports were; a. Japan - $869 million (14.6%); b. Hong Kong - $761 million (12.8%); c. People’s Republic of China - $625 million (10.5%) d. Republic of Korea - $356 million (6.0%). 7. The Philippines has made remarkable progress in reducing poverty over the past three decades. According the World Bank the poverty rate has fallen by almost 80% between 1985 to 2024 and this is expected to continue. According to the World Bank the current poverty rate is 10.7% however, the official poverty rate methodology in the Philippines is different and indicates that 18.1% of people live below the national poverty line. Of the employed population, 2.2% earn less than $1.90 per day on purchasing power parity (PPP) as of 2022. Regardless based on the Philippines methodology a target of <9% in expected to be hit by 2028 - set by the leading President Ferdinand R. Marcos. 8. Major Foreign Investment Incentivisation. The Philippines adopts an open economy that allows 100% foreign ownership in most business sectors. Many government corporations are getting privatized and the major industries such as telecommunications, energy, banking, and shipping have been deregulated. This gives foreign investors more freedom to set up operations in the country. In 2023, the Philippines saw a 6.6% decrease in FDI net inflow, totalling $8.86 billion, which was slightly higher than the targets set. For 2024, there has been a reported increase in FDI net inflows, with a 23.1% rise in March compared to the same month in 2023. The net inflow for March 2024 was $686 million. 9. Strategic Location. For investors aiming to tap into the ASEAN Free Trade area’s vast market of over 600 million consumers, or to engage with the key economies of East Asia, including China, Japan, and Korea, the Philippines offers an ideal strategic position. Additionally, the nation’s prime location at the nexus of numerous global maritime and air routes makes it an excellent hub for integrating into the worldwide supply chains of various enterprises. Think of it as the versatile and dynamic Suez Canal of Asian trade with reduced regulation. 10. Finally, there are a number of additional other factors make the Philippines ripe for investment and growth; A. The Philippines boasts a high literacy rate of 94.6%, ranking third globally, with English widely used in education, media, business, and daily life, following Filipino (Tagalog) as the national language. This is similar to Ireland in Europe, which is also the only native English speaking country remaining in the EU since UK’s exit - Brexit. This gives these countries a trading edge. B. The country’s growing economy is complemented by low business start-up costs, with labor and operational expenses significantly lower than in Western countries, leading to substantial cost savings for foreign companies establishing back offices and development centers. C. One of the world’s largest archipelagos, the Philippines is rich in natural resources, ranking among the top gold and copper producers, with diverse marine and land species unique to its thousands of islands, alongside stunning tourist destinations. Bonus Note on President Rodrigo Duterte: It would be remiss of me to not mention the previous President Rodrigo Duterte who took a very harsh approach to resolving drug related crime in the Philippines. According to the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency, during 216,138 anti-illegal drugs operations conducted between July 2016 and September 2021, 311,686 people were arrested and 6,201 were killed by the police Whilst controversial, this low tolerant approach resolved and remedied a major drug and crime issue that Philippines was burdened with. This has made the country as a whole more appealing for nationals and tourists. Duterte also increased infrastructure spending to an average of 5 percent of the country’s overall GDP – this is twice the budget in the administrations that came before him. As you can tell from all of the above, the Philippines is staged to enter into a monumental period of growth. The Philippine Stock Exchange also suggests that the stage is set, lets have a look. The Philippine Stock Exchange - PSE:PSEI The PSE Composite Index (PSEi) is composed of the 30 largest and most active common stocks listed at the PSE. The Top 5 Companies in the PSE are as follows; 1. SM Investments Corporation: A conglomerate with operations in retail, property, and financial services. It is one of the largest companies in the Philippines by market capitalization. Market Cap of $17 bln. 2. SM Prime Holdings (SMPH): One of Southeast Asia’s largest integrated property developers, offering lifestyle cities with malls, residences, offices, hotels, and convention centers. Market Cap of $13 bln. 3. BDO Unibank: The largest bank in the Philippines by assets, loans, and deposits. It offers a full range of banking services and products to the retail and corporate markets. As of June 2024, BDO Unibank has a market cap of $12.11 billion. 4. Golden MV Holdings: A company that develops memorial parks and columbarium facilities in the Philippines. It also engages in real estate through its subsidiary Bria Homes, Inc. Market Cap of $12 bln. 5. International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI): A leading operator of container ports and terminals in the global trade and shipping industry. Market Cap of $11.7 bln. We might look at a couple of these company charts later in this article and possibly more in coming days. The PSEi Index chart I am about to share reminds me of the Brazil Emerging Market ETF Index AMEX:EWZ chart which we previously shared weeks ago. It also looks a little like the AMEX:URA chart and or U.S. Small Cap 3000. All these charts are forming long term pennants and breaking to the upside. We are still pending a decisive move on the PSEi below. ▫️ You can observe a compressing pennant with a breakout very likely approaching. Given the positive strides being made in the Philippines I am leaning towards a bullish break out in the above, however this will likely be a measure and slow move. ▫️ If this chart moves in the right direction and gets above its 21 day moving average we can presume the market is moving in the right direction in the Philippines and thus seek out some companies to invest in, knowing that the wind is at our back. ▫️ Investing in the above would obviously leave you exposed to a currency risk in the Philippine Peso. So you need to keep an eye on that currency pair. ▫️ The above chart is not a prediction, however it does have a double bottom look about it and with that in mind, there is a back end potential for an up to 12% currency gain in a longer term trade for U.S. investors. It’s a very interesting background set up. ▫️ This means if you invest in Filipino stocks or companies, there is potential here that you might get additional %’s from the back end currency play. ▫️ Equally, if we lose the current low on the Peso, this would lead to losing potential gains, the currency risk in the trade. So you need to watch both charts if you enter a trade. Very important to keep an eye on the Philippine Peso if you’re an international investor converting your local currency into Pesos in order to invest in companies in the Philippines, however at present the chart looks like it might be an advantageous back end play. No Guarantees. Now lets look at a Philippine Stock that is large, liquid and heavily relied upon by multiple sectors in the Philippines and obviously we need a DAMN GOOD CHART. International Container Terminal Services - SET:ICT ▫️ The chart speaks for itself and presents a good 6:1 risk: reward set up. ▫️ That 100 SMA can provide a nice structural support for anyone wanting to stay in the trade longer or at least have a level that if convincingly lost, you can cut your losses. Equally the 100 SMA would also be a great entry level. ▫️ The above SET:ICT chart reminds me so much of the Reysas LoJistik BIST:RYSAS chart which is a similar business in logistics and transportation but in Turkey. Please have a look below. COMPARISON Reysas Lojistic - BIST:RYSAS ▫️ I am sharing this chart as a reference to potential outcomes for ICT. ▫️ Very Similar Company Sector and Chart to the above ICT Chart in Philippines. Could we see similar continued advances in ICT? There are a number of REALLY interesting chart set ups for the Top 5 companies in the Philippine Stock Exchange (we shared these tickers earlier). I will definitely add these in coming days and weeks as I see a lot of opportunity in the Philippine market place and the currency looks like it might be about to gain positive ground. It appears the Philippines is undergoing an monumental economic renaissance with the economic and demographic landscape looking incredibly favourable for this versatile archipelago. This nation of Islands is presenting an incredible investment opportunity, so great in fact, I’ve started looking at property there. It has so much potential and appears to be on the cusp of a major bull trend. We can watch the PSE chart and wait for the break out. All these charts are available on my TradingView Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how the Philippine stock market has performed. I hope it’s helpful. PUKA
PLong
by PukaCharts
1
Possible entries to a Liverpool LongThis seems like a great buying point, looking at all the technicals, it would be hard for price to keep pushing down. However, the moving averages do tend to work as resistance and support, so it could be possible for price to drop there. However, It's unlikely price will continue to move down by much. And if so, price is likely to keep on rising. As this company has proven to be a go-to store for Mexicans looking for presents during the holidays, special events, sports gear and many others. Despite big competitors, this brand has lasted the test of time.
BMV:LIVEPOL/C-1Long
by DarkMessiah777
The next decade belongs to Latin AmericaFor the past decade, decision-makers in major banks and multinational companies have been focusing their attention on one of the hottest "growth frontiers": emerging markets. During much of the 1980's the prospects in most emerging countries were quite bleak: the debt crisis, inflation and domestic political turbulence. Then a number of "economic miracles" began to pop up, drawing attention to specifically Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Eastern Europe and toward the end of the 80's, Latin America. Latin America struggled with the heavy burdens of the debt crisis, hyperinflation, recession and the transition from authoritarian to democratic governments. Most analysts call the 80's Latin America's "Lost Decade." Most governments in the area came to the realization that they were gradually becoming irrelevant to the investment decisions of major international players and that they would slowly but surely lose ground to Asia and Eastern Europe in the competition for capital and employment opportunities. The region's trade with the rest of the world increased but at a slower pace than in countries at similar stages of their development. Latin America largely remained an exporter of primary goods. In fact, beside the popping off of just particular industry sectors and multinational companies, Latin America never saw a bullrun as a continent. After lagging behind big players like India and China during the Era of Markets (1989–2019), where there was a remarkable increase in global economic interconnectedness and rapid adoption of digital technologies, now it's time to shine for Latin America and to catch up to OECD economies. The next decade is expected to be a transformative period for Latin America with many countries experiencing rapid growth and development. Economic Growth : Latin America's economic growth is expected to continue, driven by a combination of factors such as increased trade, investment, and infrastructure development. The region's large and growing middle class is also driving consumer spending and demand for goods and services. Regional Integration : Latin America is also expected to strengthen its regional integration, with initiatives such as the Pacific Alliance and the Mercosur bloc aiming to promote trade and cooperation among member states. This will help to increase economic competitiveness and attract foreign investment. Demographic Dividend : Latin America is experiencing a demographic dividend, with a large and growing population of young people entering the workforce. This will provide a significant boost to economic growth and innovation, as well as help to address social and economic challenges. Innovation and Technology : Latin America is also expected to become a hub for innovation and technology, with many countries investing in digital infrastructure and innovation hubs. This will help to drive economic growth and create new opportunities for entrepreneurship and job creation. Emerging countries now represent the clear majority of the world's population. Their growth prospects range from 4 to 5% per year in Latin America, 6 to 7% in East Asia and up to 10% in China. These are typically two to three times the expected growth rates of developed countries. In all of these countries, growth will invariably entail the expansion of new middle classes, with outsized needs for consumer durables, housing and mobility. The MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index e.g. captures large and mid cap representation across 5 emerging markets countries in Latin America. This index is one of the most trusted measures of how these stock markets in the region are performing. However, all the constituent countries do not have a proportional representation in the index. The country weights in the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index are mostly Brazil 46.6%, Mexico 36.51%, Chile 9.79%, Colombia 4.17% and Peru 2.93% with sectors like materials, energy, consumer staples, common services and financials. Looking at the Index from a technical macro standpoint we can see clearly almost 20 years of an (Wyckoff) accumulation period (with the launch in 1990 probably even longer) and sideways movement resulting in a kind of created bull flag signaling a continuous coming-in of buyers and losing steam of sellers. Furthermore the monthly RSI is printing higher lows and higher highs which is an indicator for a steady uptrend and positive momentum shift towards the upside. No doubt, Latin America is gonna flourish the next decade(s) marking a significant transformation, with the region poised to emerge as a major player on the global stage.
XETR:IUSCLong
by PizzaDriver
#USDZAR stuck between 18.95 and 18.20. USDZAR some interesting developments for the Rand bulls. 50dma < 200dma (death cross). 3 lower highs forming what could be a potential flat bottom triangle with the base at 18.10-18.20. Some bullish characteristics here which could be shifting sentiment in favour of the bulls but it's still too early too call. Range bound between 18.95 and 18.20 now. A convincing break above or below the two levels will be needed to force a move in either direction.
Short
by MarcoOlevano
1
#USDZAR daily analysisUSDZAR saw a bearish reversal off the important 18.75 level which was strong support previously. Should we trade below friday's low at 18.61, i suspect we will see a re-test of 18.43. However if no follow through of the reversal occurs and price manages to gain traction above 18.75 i would then expect the 18.90 level to come into play where we find the 50dma and the downtrend resistance. My gut says back to 18.43 the more likely action given friday's candle structure
Short
by MarcoOlevano
2
Emerging Market Fund (EEM) Turns the corner against NasdaqIntroduction Since the 2008 Financial Crisis NDX has been “the” trade for anyone looking for easy gains in equities. It has stomped out precious metals, emerging markets and the like. Even crypto powerhouses like Bitcoin and Ethereum are sideways against NDX since the 2018 crypto bear market and smaller alts have been clobbered against NDX in the most recent bear market. Against all this we now have the Emerging Market ETF, EEM, turning technical corners against NDX on the monthly time frame. This idea is more of an investing idea rather than a day or swing trade idea. And it point to finding entries into EEM. Main Chart The main chart has a very simple draw. It takes a bearish fib draw from the all time high to the bull trap low. The gavel shows where price returned to the 1 line and previous support was turned into resistance. From there the pair bear market began in earnest. Price consolidated for about 3 years on the 2.618 level before continuing downward. That leve is also confirmed by the VPVR. We see similar levels of consolidation at the 3.618 an 4.0 level. Price is currently just bounced of the 4.618. Conceivably price could go and hit a 5.0 extension with the divergence indicators showing bullishness n the monthly chart I don’t see that being a likely scenario. Divergence Primer Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator Divergence Indicators The RSI, Stochastic and Stochastic RSI are some of the first indicators traders learn about when they begin to trade. There is a lot of value one can get out of their use by mastering the fundamentals rather than running off for more esoteric indicators. The Logrithmic MACD is a advanced look at the MACD that can be useful whenever you look at a underlying asset that is best viewed logarithmically for its charting and targeting. Relative Strength Index A very simple indicator for looking for divergences. The chart clearly shows that there have been 2020 we have had two lower lows on price action but two higher highs on the RSI. This is clearly normal bullish divergence and suggest a trend reversal is coming. Even more importantly the RSI has climbed its way above the key level of 25 on this most recent bounce. One of the main things I am looking for is a swing low with hidden bullish divergence. A buy of a low with hidden bullish divergence is one of my most preferred buys for trades and investments. Stoch RSI The Stoch RSI is derived from from the RSI and helps confirm any divergences on the RSI. Seeing bullish divergence on the Stoch RSI helps confirm the fact that price action is turning the corner and ready to reverse. This indicator will be useful when combined with the EEM chart to help buy pull backs. It will also be useful to see any further bullish divergences. Log MACD The log MACD is undulating below zero Despite any bullish divergence we see we can know we are a long way away from seeing an impulse move upward on EEM/NDX while the LMACD is below zero. If we see the LMCAD with bullish divergences above zero then we can know that the move will be a lot more impulsive. As it stands, this is still time to accumulate EEM against NDX. EEM EEM has hidden bearish divergence on the 2020 C19 low to the low of October 2022. I am going to be looking for another low shortly to see what divergences can be seen. I hope to buy in against or below the monthly BB. Another look with fewer indicators and some ambitious trend lines. Conclusion There is a lot of noise about financial resets and that can mean a lot of different things. For me, nothing totally resets but there are transition periods of major rotations. With emerging markets so low against the NASDAQ it seems likely they will benefit from rotation as people sell something that is overvalued (NDX Stocks, other US equities) and try to move into things that are comparatively undervalued. A look at EEM is looking for a investment that can be held perhaps for decades or until some young’un wants to retire. There is probably a lot of consolidation and accumulation that needs to occur before any big move happens. But when it starts to move it should be quite impulsive for a index. But for now, lots of basing out and dip buying.
AMEX:EEMLong
by This_Guhy
2
Emerging Markets Show A Corrective Decline For StocksEmerging markets show a corrective decline for stocks from technical point of view and from Elliott wave perspective. Emerging markets chart with ticker EEM made sharp an impulsive rally at the end of 2022, which indicates for more upside after a corrective a-b-c setback that is actually still in progress since the beginning of 2023. So, for stock market support keep an eye on EEM chart, as they are in positive correlation. With current slow down in the stock market, we can see it finishing wave »c«, but wave »c« has still room down to 61,8% Fibo. and 36-35 support area before market stabilizes.
AMEX:EEMLong
by ew-forecast
BBRI: The Advancing Phase and Recovery of Banking Sectors? Hello Fellow Global Stock Investor/Trader, Here's a Technical outlook on BBRI! Support the channel by giving us a thumbs up and sharing your opinions in the comment below! Technical Analysis BBRI is a breakout of the Pennant Pattern after retracing on the Fibonacci golden ratio area. The MACD Indicator made a golden cross below the zero level area, which indicated a potential bullish movement ahead. All other explanations are presented on the chart. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area. "Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the BBRI"
IDX:BBRILong
by financialfreedomgoals101