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Emergingmarkets

Mixed Technique: Bring back strong peso and old school reggaetonWelcome to the series where I play with both technical and fundamental aspects of the market. Leave your suggestions if you want me to cover a specific asset. Technical story: As everyone but Maluma noticed, FX_IDC:EURCOP is really close to marking all time... close, but breaking high may come too. The correlation with emerging markets ( AMEX:VWO ), although broken in 2017 and for the most of 2018, seems to be making a return. It is hard to judge it because the market sell-off usually unites different asset sub-classes better than Santos uniting people of Colombia (no disrespect, calm yourself down). USDCOP broke out of the long-term wedge and seems to be heading higher. We have two main resistance lines to watch now: 3710 and 3910; and two main support lines: 3610 and 3555. For now the EURCOP seems to be making new 52-week high, it may suggest further upward moves. Neither of used indicators is suggesting the end of the rally. VWO coming down would definitely trigger the risk-on mode and bid the COP. If we face a bear market, the COP will definitely not be used as a safe haven. Fundamental story: Fundamentals look a little bit better for Colombia. I prepared a couple of charts for you: GDP seems to be improving, inflation is kept low, debt to GDP is falling. Most of fundamentals suggest there is nothing as bad in Colombia as there was in 2016. Currency is however howering around levels from 2016. I presume it is falling down with the rest of emerging currencies, suggesting risk-off mode. fred.stlouisfed.org - interest rate differential with USD suggests COP should be way lower. I KNOW IT IS USD, don't cry please. We can see however that heading to 2016 the currency was crushed. This was back when the economy was not doing so good and GDP dropped. Look like worries came back, but they are not to be seen for now. fred.stlouisfed.org - Real Broad effective exchange rate (RBEER) rallied a lot during this year and the yoy change seems to be too high as for interest rate differential (IRD, used TVC:DE10Y as a proxy for Euro long term interest rate). In the years 2005, 2007, 2010, when it happened, the yoy change in RBEER caught up eventually within 1-2 years. Beware the IRD yoy change is already below zero for more than a year. fred.stlouisfed.org - my favourite chart. Real interest rate differential vs EURCOP. The currency pair seems to have rallied a bit too much in 2016 and 2017 and we can expect a comeback to the range 3200-3000. Other option is that Colombian yields would have to rally suggesting weakness in Colombia's credibility or economy d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net - Manufacturing PMI is above 50 and suggests a healthy economy In the first half of 2018 it looked like the FX_IDC:EURCOP was trying to break lower but I believe the current market situation kicked it higher Conclusions: Technicals are undecided yet. We are at a cross-road. In my opinion it is flipping a bird at COP bulls and may strengthen EUR against our reggeaton peso. Fundamentals of Colombia are strong and even interest rate differential sugest that the currency should appreciate against the euro. I believe it is a short-term bearish, long-term bullish situation for COP.
by Slimsy
1
Emerging markets bounce? Emerging Markets ETFs are in a parallel channel. Price just bounced on the lower limit. Investors are concerned about the high inflation to be expected in the US (3.7% unemployment = wages going up) which would encourage the FED to raise interests even more and drive the USD up. A high USD and higher yields would draw investors away from EM because they could get a decent return at lower risk (Bonds or T-Bills). The trade war risks is obviously not helping. In addition, higher interest rates would result in higher DEBT/GDP ratios in emerging countries that However, one can argue that those factors have been priced in since EEM is down 25% in 2018, and it could be a good time to buy. I would not be too confident about that. If the overall trend goes down, EM are likely to perform poorly. If Trump backs-up on tariffs, which is extremely unlikely, then the outlook could change. Trade safe!
AMEX:EEM
by Tutur
Opportunity on ECH ?During the month of September, the Chilean indicator has moved a lot, where with the rebalancing product of the departure of 10 companies, the 30 that stayed have suffered several changes in their weighting, which undoubtedly affected this week, coinciding with a bad debut of the new method. However, when refining the pencil, we can be at a decisive moment and contemplate a stronger fall, if it lose the level of 50% fibo and the ema100. Otherwise, could bounce something during the next few days and finalize a good month ... we must look closely to emerging, and global indicators Durante el mes de septiembre, se ha movido bastante el indicador Chileno, en donde con el rebalanceo producto de la salida de 10 empresas, las 30 que quedaron sufrieron varias modificaciones en su ponderación, lo cual indudablemente afecto esta semana, coincidiendo con un mal debut del nuevo método. Sin embargo, al afinar el lápiz, podemos estar en un momento decisivo y contemplar una caída mas fuerte, de perder el 50% fibo y la ema100. Por otro lado, podría rebotar algo durante las próximas horas y finiquitar un buen cierre de mes... a estar muy atento con los emergentes, e indicadores globales
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by laegtcl
Dollar Index Ready to go to New HighsFundamentally , within the context of the current currency crisis experienced by emerging market economies, the dollar index is set to go to new highs in the upcoming weeks. Capital flights from weaker economies will pump into the dollar. This should have a strong effect on the valuation of the most important currency in the world. Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Argentina and Brasil are perfect examples of the weakening of these market economies. For more information about these, please refer to: www.youtube.com . Technically , the DXY is set to achieve new highs around 101.84 points. This is a FIB level of 0.618 phi in the overall chart. We can see in this 4H timeframe chart a: 1. Descending Channel (red) after entering the 0.5 phi level between the 0 - 1 FIB level. 2. Consolidation/accumulation within the reversal triangle (blue) that pumped upwards. 3. An Inversed Head & Shoulders pattern that should pump upwards as soon as the DXY manages to break through the base of the pattern. Now, taking a look at the 1D timeframe chart, we can see the following technicals: 1. A massive Bullish Bat Harmonic Pattern. 2. A massive Megaphone Pattern. 3. A Falling Wedge pattern with the confirmed breakout. 3. A bear trap formed after the rejection of the 0.382 phi and the failed dumped of the megaphone pattern. This technical structure in the 1D timeframe fits and confirms the upcoming rise prediction of the 4H timeframe chart. Finally, looking at the 1W timeframe, we can see that the Triangle Reversal Accumulation Pattern the dollar had for about ten years, between 2004 until 2014, fundamentally coincides with the time the emerging markets got into US debt by accessing cheap credit fostered by the IMF among other international entities and institutions. P.S.: Considering cryptocurrencies are within a Bear Market, I am going to actively start posting charts about Forex, Indexes, Commodities and a Stock Bubble that I see forming in a country in the Americas. Follow me and like my idea to access this content!
TVC:DXYLong
by CoinMajesty
2
Argentine Telecom deep discount breakout on falling wedgeTEO breaks out of deep falling wedge from half its value earlier in year. * Paid a 17.45% dividend last year and known for double digit dividends * Telecom 5G play for new subscribers in 2019, or watch until 2019 entry at higher price, likely near $30. * Growing mid-cap telecom, cable, cellular provider * Fell out of favor on negative earnings miss building infrastructure * Revenue growth +35%, Revenue change +24% * Currently only 20% large fund ownership, which will grow with 5G emergence * Breaking out from bottom just above $15 and below $20 and going up. Viewers come to own conclusions with charts and investing.
NYSE:TEOLong
by Pokethebear
AUD/USD: Looking For Cues Via EM Currency IndexIn this chart exercise, it becomes blatantly clear why the Aussie is often referred to as a proxy for emerging markets. We've created an EM-weighted index with 7 currencies (Argentinian Peso, Turkish Lira, Russian Ruble, South African Rand, Chinese Yuna, Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee). Do you notice the extremely strong negative correlation? As long as the trading war keep undermining emerging markets, one can take cues from the EM index to trade the Aussie. In the latest divergence spotted on Sept 10, notice how we were going through a recovery in emerging markets (candle chart going lower), yet the aussie remained at trend lows?
by FlowState
MSCI emerging markets Similar past, veryYou do not have to be a genius to see the huge similitures of the past charts of the emerging markets msci of exactly 10 years ago¡ , specifically in 2008, where you can clearly see an upturn in investment in these markets msci very, very strong up, reaching a summit to explosion and crach donw , it can practically be seen as a carbon copy 10 years later the same pattern almost yes, well You may not remember it , but exactly 10 years ago it was the resection in North America. Well coincidences, possibly. but without a doubt the Charts are very similar to those of the past.
AMEX:EEMShort
by ManuelRodriguez
EM Currencies: Major Source of Concern, Watch Aussie vs Yen Judging by the state of play in the emerging market currencies, it's little wonder that the AUD/JPY has been performing so badly. Brushing aside the domestic affairs in the Australian economy and its implications for a more dovish RBA, this chart, which factors in equally weighted proportion the IND, IDR, ASR, TRY, RUB, CNY and ZAR as a rough indicator of the sentiment towards EM, suggests a macro bearish picture in the AUD/JPY. As illustrated in the 2nd window of the chart, the inverse correlation remains very strong, with the recurrent cycles of divergences opportunities one can potentially tap into via lower timeframes to find trades. It's important to note that the 100 MA in the H4 chart has been acting as a predictive indicator of periods of consolidation in the chart before the next implosion in the deterioration in value of EM currencies. Every time the chart has touched the 100MA amid a high AUD/JPY, it has represented some major short opport.
by FlowState
Emerging markets aka Submerging MarketsThis is the Dow Vs the China index post Trump. If you believe the media at this point, that China isnt sweating about this, I don't know what to tell you. I'd get out of emerging markets for now and let this dust settle. Turkey, Argentina are just the first, South Africa and Indonesia, will Follow, and China will fall until they make peace with Trump. I'd focus on US for the next year or two in terms of equities. USD is about to make a big move up with emerging market currencies taking a dump
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by BigTex23