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Emergingmarkets

Macro Dashboard 8 Of The Most Interesting Markets My outlook for what's happening right now and where things will likely turn or move to. BTCUSD WTI 30 Yr Bonds USDCNH Gold DXY EEM Bloomberg Commodities Index Seasonally August and September SPX underperforms while global markets outperform, this could be a good counter trend move into September lows as the US positions itself to vacuum up as much global assets as possible. Consider this scenario... Strong Dollar Strong Bond Strong Equities Strong Real Estate Strong Oil(?) Weak Gold, Euro, Yen, Yuan, Commodities, Global Real Estate, EEM, ME-Euro Equities, Asian Equities, Global Bonds, Brexit, Italexit, Spain-Exit, devaluation of Lira.... Where does money go in this scenario, that actually looks like it might take place? US Assets
by ChrisD_Macro
BRICS Custom Index forming new price channel (lower)Watch out below, folks. It appears recent support may not hold in my custom BRICS index as Emerging Markets appear to be under extreme pressures. Recent news out of China, Malaysia and Mexico could lead to a complete EM market collapse. Chinese capital markets are under extreme pressure right now and over $1 trillion in equity shares have been pledged to offset debt/loans. This may seem fine right now, but what if these share prices drop another 20~30%? What happens then? Malaysia is opening and aggressively targeting corruption and graft with the new Mahathir administration. The biggest target so far has been local Malay business leaders and China. Trust me, Mahathir will lock up, charge and possibly HANG some of these people for what they have done to sell out the Malaysian people and country. The news from this could be catastrophic for China. Imagine hundreds of billions (possibly multiple-trillions) being exposed as "shady deals" with the intent to make China look more prosperous over the past few years. Imagine how destructive it would be to find out that China has been dramatically cooking the books for the past 4+ years. Mexico, on the other hand, is very much like the wild, wild west right now. With the new Mexican President and a complete change in policies, no one really knows what is next. But what is likely is a truly epic reversal of core economic policies and what could be a dramatic destruction of people, property and future opportunities. BRICs?? Remember, how fast a brick falls when you drop it and how dangerous it really can be. Be very cautious.
INDEX:IBOVShort
by BradMatheny
The Chinese Breakdown appears to be acceleratingThe breakdown in my China/Asia custom index appears to be accelerating downward. I called this move over 4 months ago as I saw economic issues playing out in China that could be dangerous. With Malaysia's new PM, Mahathir, pushing to expose corruption and graft from locals and Chinese investment firms, I expect continue news to POUND China over the next 12+ months. I expect Mahathir to be ruthless in terms of who and what is exposed as well as the criminal process involved. Honestly, I believe Malaysia could actually HANG people because of this as an act of Treason against the Malaysian people. Don't try to bottom pick this move. This could be the unraveling of the Chinese Ponzi scheme and you don't want to be anywhere near this when it fully implodes.
INDEX:000002Short
by BradMatheny
This rally in #Emerging Markets should be shorted on 5% Bounce $EEM $VWO $IEMG $SCHE $EUM These custom support resistance indicator lines show decent places to enter or exit. The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter. If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long. If your instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting. For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts). Find out more. Send Private Mail (PM) to @MasterCharts
AMEX:EEMShort
by mastercharts
Emerging Markets are VulnerableHello All, This is a break from Crypto and about Global Emerging Markets. I will keep this simple. Emerging Markets are beginning to show signs of stress due to an increase in the dollar, trade tariffs and rising interest rates. Thus, this fund by Ishares is at risk of long term downside. Symbol EEM My plan is to short until August 40 puts. I expect a retracement to 36.61. you can read about them with my XRP assessment. I am considering 32 puts for December too-but will wait a bit to confirm the movements. I am using my selected tools and market knowledge to support my assessment.
AMEX:EEMShort
by ramonbenavides12
2
SHORT on USD/ZAR - Bearish BAT + FundamentalsUSD/ZAR presents a nice short, as recent gains in USD may not be sustainable. Price broke above the parallel channel , I believe the pair is overpriced. A nice Bat-Pattern indicates a good short back in the channel. Target around 12.0000 Fundamentally , rate increase and the US 10 year treasury yield at its highest since 2014 provoked such a hike. Take the trade but watch the US yield closely. As Europe and Canada are increasing their rates as well, the US dollar is expected to lose value. In addition, the IMF increased its forecast for growth in South Africa to 3.4% for 2018; we can hope for unemployment to go down in the next months. I see a good chance for USD/ZAR to go down even further.
Short
by Tutur
1
mother of all charts US 10 yr yieldshigher dxy real rates spread increse => pressure on gold prices? bearish for across the board EM assets terrible news for etf managers china to start thinking about all the 1.3 bn usd worth of almost 0 yield US papers they hold imf and wb funding become more important => sharing policy making decissions with the west again .... for the sector, it means importance of the managed funds will increase. stock picking will be the name of the game again thanx god....
TVC:US10Y
by tncckn
Not all bonds are declining!EMLC has just experienced a bullish breakout of a wedge pattern. That occurred above support (23.6% retracement of all-time high to all-time low), which lends to the bullish slant. It's also recently tested and held a rising channel bottom and had a bullish breakout in the RSI, further strengthening the bullish setup. Volume has been robust and accelerating, as well, suggesting conviction in the move higher. As rates rise, bonds will obviously fall in value. However, that's not the case everywhere. EMLC primarily owns emerging market government debt (>96% of holdings), along with a few corporate bonds. It invests in debts in the local currency, which reduces exchange rate risks. It has vastly outperformed US government debt with a 1-year return of +11.2%. Compare that to SHY, IEI, IEF, and TLT 1-year returns of -0.1%, -0.41%, -0.54%, and +3.0%, respectively. Not only is the fund experiencing price appreciation, but it also offers a 5.3% dividend via monthly distributions. This is a great place to park cash and achieve some return while market turbulence and volatility prevail. I'm a buyer at current levels, with an intermediate term target of $20.81, the 38.2% retracement.
AMEX:EMLCLong
by EchoAlphaBravo