$EEM: Long term bottomThe time seems to have come to consider allocating to Emerging Markets here, I am thinking of entering a position today. India and Mexico are set to benefit from decentralization of supply chains, China is about to get stimulus to consumption from govt, and AI is generally a source of growth and higher efficiency for the world going forward (solves the issue with demographics deteriorating). Oil has fallen enough to create a long term tailwind to earnings going forward and demand destruction from it being too high is out of the way (its effects were felt in a recession that took place, combined with CB actions causing further damage.)
Now the Fed has to reverse course, as a bonus, and China credit growth is accelerating again (after being negative for a good while)
I would secure some gains in healthcare to get an Emerging Markets allocation, I had a big position in the top profitable healthcare names as a defensive bet, but AI changes many long term levers here. I do like the idea of trading healthcare actively though, but Emerging Markets seems like a better proposition now and healthcare names are over extended (like NYSE:LLY , NYSE:TMO , NYSE:WST , etc.)
Many valuations are very attractive in Asia currently, and technical setups are getting traction. It's go time.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Emergingmarkets
Technical AnalysisAscending Triangle formed and annotated with TA PT along with possible time frames using Fibonacci time series, Fib retracements and Bulkowski's pattern targets. Stone recently swung to profit on improving fundamentals Q/Q and Y/Y supported by the possibility of Brazil cutting rates in near term and coming out of recession.
EMERGING MARKETS 7 year bottom is in. Huge upside potential.The MSCI Emerging Index Fund (EEM) is posting a bottom rebound pattern similar to early 2016 and 2009. All all cases the 1W RSI previously broke below the 30.00 oversold level and rebounded strongly. As you see these bottoms take place approximately every 7 years. This indicates that the Emerging Markets are only at the start of a two year mega rally.
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Head and Shoulders on $EEMThe $EEM daily chart is showing a massive Head and Shoulders formation, with the Neckline set at $38. This could be a sign that the price will soon break to the downside, as Head and Shoulders are usually considered bearish reversal patterns. The market will now be watching for a break below $38 in order to confirm the bearish reversal. If the price does break below $38, traders may want to consider shorting the $EEM as the price could continue to decline.
EEM: Emerging Market MSCI (EM) : SELLEmerging markets equities had to clear many hurdles in 2022 but began to recover in the fourth quarter.
But technically, there are hurdles, The Red sloping line of 2021 is the prime example.
After the steep drop in equity markets overall in 2022, It is believed that emerging markets equities may be one of the most mispriced asset classes, with attractive valuations compared with historical levels.
A 15% drop cannot be ruled out...fundamentals are strong, but technicals will sadly rule.
Nowhere to HideEmerging markets have made some terrific gains in the past month, but I would caution with the path ahead. Take a look at the past year's performance of the Hang Seng, KOSPI, IBOVESPA. I've included a chart of the Tadawul, the Saudi stock index, which is significantly weighted in EEM, the emerging market ETF. These are not healthy charts, and rallies provide opportunities for shorting in my opinion.
EEM's breakout from its downtrend will be tested as it compresses between the 50 & 150 EMA's. As of right now, it needs to close above $39.20 to invalidate a daily Head & Shoulders pattern.
Argentinian Banks Present Us w/ a Short SignalI've been watching Buenos Aires based bank stock BBAR for a while now, ever since I noticed that it was the Argentinian ADR with the closest correlation to the Merval. I noticed it coiling up for some event that I wasn't paying too much attention to (the World Cup-- please, don't judge, I'm an American) and ever since Messi scored those goals Argentinian stocks have gone absolutely vertical. FOMO set in quickly, and I've been salivating at a topfish for the past couple months. Head and shoulder after double top after false breakdown after moving average crossover. But finally I think we can see the triple top on all of these names. Shown here are BMA and GGAL, but really this applies to all these ADR's, such as YPF and TEO. The Merval itself reached a double top. Why? Listen. Argentina's economy has a bright future because of its natural resources and work ethic, but man does its fiscal situation need some paternal scolding. Join currencies with Brazil? Don't strengthen the peso, other countries love your cheap exports! Anyway, the market is communicating this message to us. If you'd like to profit from this disfunction, now is your chance. Hopefully after this short's performance Direxion will create a 3x Bear Argentina MERVAL ETN.
GRIN. Holdings Ltd. for steady growth in global shippinJoin the smart investors who are banking on Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd for steady growth in the global shipping industry. With a diversified portfolio, strong financials, and experienced management team.
Diversified Shipping Services: Grindrod provides a diversified range of shipping services, including dry bulk shipping, liquid bulk shipping, and container shipping, which can potentially provide stability and reduce dependence on any single business segment.
Emerging Markets Exposure: has a significant presence in emerging markets, which can offer growth potential as these economies continue to develop and demand for shipping services increases.
Strong Financial Performance: has a history of strong financial performance, with steady revenue growth and profitability, which can indicate a well-run and efficiently managed company.
Growing Demand for Shipping Services: The global shipping industry is expected to grow as a result of increasing trade and economic activity, which can provide tailwinds for Grindrod's business.
Experienced Management Team: has an experienced management team with a strong track record of running the company and making strategic decisions, which can provide confidence to potential investors.
It's important to keep in mind that this is just one possible investment thesis and that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It's crucial to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
EEM: retesting 0.61 and heading lowerEmerging markets is completing a complex correction from an Elliot wave point of view.
The first leg of the C wave started in May21 and is currently retracing before heading lower.
Dollar index broke out and is now retesting the top of its previous range going back till '15.
Secondly EEM and Dollar index are inverse correlated when the market is trending.
VIX lift-off will coincide with this second leg.
Sentiment Let's continue to observe the social moods in the world.
The main news today is the unrest in Brazil: supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace. They are protesting against the election of Luis Inacio Lula da Silva as president, calling for a coup d'état, the annulment of elections and the imprisonment of da Silva.
Let's try to assess the prospects for Brazil by correlation with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, which includes indicators in US dollars. It peaked in 2008 and has been losing over 60% since then.
The long-term downtrend began shortly after former US President Obama called then-President of Brazil da Silva "the most popular politician on earth."
Whether this is the bottom remains to be seen, but it certainly deserves attention.
Emerging MarketsThis is just a question for thought, not a trade recommendation: Could the Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ) be ready for a breakout?
It's quite rare to find a chart where price has consolidated and appears to be breaking out, and at the same time, the oscillators are ready to move up on both the higher and lower timeframes. This set up can lead to breakouts.
With that said, obviously, there are many headwinds. To name just a couple:
The VIX is at its trend line (support) and could easily oscillate up soon, causing most risk assets to drop lower.
This ETF is composed mainly of Chinese stocks which have been volatile and vulnerable to geopolitical events, not to mention Chinese and international stocks, in general, have typically underperformed the S&P 500 over the long term.
Traders are like surfers trying to catch waves. Sometimes the wave is a total dud. Sometimes the wave crests right when you get on. Almost always, waves crest while sub-currents on a lower degree are pulling back out. On some rare occasions, however, a large wave occurs because the currents on all levels converge and begin to swell roughly at the same time. This is happening right now to EMQQ. While the weekly oscillator appears to be the only noteworthy incongruent current, it is not in overbought territory, and there is no bearish divergence in the weekly RSI to warrant the possibility that a weekly oscillation down would have a strong downward bias. Additionally, there is a breakout on the weekly chart which, to some extent, undermines the effect of the oscillation down on that timeframe.
Only time will tell.
USDMXN breaks bearish trendThe USD/MXN is attempting a breakout above 20.50, which will also see rates take out the bearish trend line that has been in place since last year. At the time of writing, it was doing a good job at that. A closing break would pave the way for more gains in this pair, and losses for the Mexican Peso.
Emerging market currencies have been in the spotlight amid the Fed's aggressive hiking.
There’s a risk that inflation in developed economies might prove to be more persistent – something the Fed highlighted the risk of at their last monetary policy sitting, judging from the minutes of that meeting released on Wednesday.
If that's the case, more aggressive hikes could be on the way from the Fed and other developed economies, which should further reduce the appeal of EM currencies.
Expect a summer of turmoil in EM space.
SSE Shanghai Composite W1 topped w/ a diamond? W2 comingThis China index confirmed its completion of ABC when lockdown ended & their economy resumes. It has risen so much from the ABC correction low of 2888 & we may see wave 1 topping out with a diamond reversal pattern. As seen in the past 2 times shown in chart, a diamond can be either a reversal or continuation pattern so proceed with caution.
Reasons why I see this as a reversal:
1) index has already risen 500 points (2888 to 3388 completes the 5 sub-waves of wave 1) without any major retracement.
2) price was rejected exactly at wma 50 & an anchored VWAP from 3300 bottom of July 2021
3) price was rejected at the 2015 red trendline
4) price has reached the 1.272 FIB retracement of the most recent leg down (an ideal spot for abc zigzag retracements)
The 2 most probable supports (the 2 yellow zones) for the wave 2 correction are:
1) the 0.383 FIB near the 3100 to 3200 pivot zone
2) the 0.618 zone near 3100
If wave 2 is shallow, then the future wave 4 may be a deeper correction like 61.8% or 78.6%.
Not trading advice
EWZ Brazil, a commodities proxy is now in Wave 3 of IIIWith the current fear of recession & rising inflation in the US, a lot of funds will be flowing outside into emerging markets, China & also Brazil which is rich in commodities especially now that the dollar seems to be peaking out as foreign markets slowly becomes more attractive to invest in.
EWZ may retrace down first to fill the gap at 33.65 green line. A bounce from here will enable a near 20% rally to the 0.618 red zone at 40 to 42.43.
42.43 will be a strong pivot point since it is the intersection of the 0.50 red dotted FIB level of my slanted FIB CHANNEL with 1.272 FIB of the recent wave 2. EWZ is currently in the wave 3 of 3 of a larger wave III.
Not trading advice