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Emergingmarkets

EUR/MXN - Opportunities! Technical outlook towards EUR/MXN We were messaged to analyse this pair, since we last looked at this pair was July - Great momentum it has had. It was 1hr chart this time, I am going through daily - Why? ***Higher time frame indicates shorter time frame of movement! *** Technical outlook: Pattern wise - we are being squeezed within price action of a triangle formation but within that we do have a smaller bullish flag occurring which if you go through 4 hr it hasn't broken towards upside yet and we are at support of this pattern. Shorter Trade Plan: Going towards 4hr you could add Fibs retracement and the target for this bullish flag would be 26.52767 and that's the resistance of this formation as well as top of the range is has been for while. (Following the pattern and inner small flag pattern) For further confirmation a close above 50 EMA. Longer term trade plan: You could play the shorter role of the 4hr and even 1hr following the channel down or break out- However, longer term looking at the daily you could wait for a break to either direction, adding alert to resistance and support areas of the pattern, which ever way it breaks from the yellow arrows draw, I have measured the pattern length. On patterns I like to make sure it's a real break of the range so I would wait for break out , get in on the pull back and then take the trade to whichever direction it goes towards. Keep in mind - MXN is an EM currency, if you are interested to look more in depth an advanced view look at MSCI. (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation) All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
1
If dollar breaks down, it could open 10-yr opportunity in EMFirst of all, I want to acknowledge that I am indebted for this idea to Raoul Pal and the fine folks at Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group. I personally know just enough about finance to be dangerous, but these guys know their stuff and I stand on their shoulders, especially in relation to Forex. The U.S. dollar index is now *very* close to a key breakdown of its 10-year uptrend, as shown on the chart. This is driven not only by the Fed's talk of "overshooting" its 2% inflation target this year, but also by the expectation of massive deficit spending by Congress and the possibility that US policymakers will maintain a loose monetary policy for years to come. If the dollar does break its 10-year uptrend, it could open up a huge opportunity to invest in emerging markets. Emerging markets are strongly inversely correlated with the dollar, so the dollar's strength over the last 10 years has caused emerging markets to underperform vs. the S&P 500. A long-term reversal in the dollar would change that. However, a couple caveats here. First, a lot of FX wonks use the trade-weighted dollar index, in which there's quite a bit further to go till we hit the trendline. In short, temporary changes in trade balance due to the pandemic may be making the dollar index look weaker than it actually is. In trade-weighted terms, the dollar is simply normalizing after a huge spike. My second caveat is that although Donald Trump has been a president of extraordinarily loose monetary policy-- of Modern Monetary Theory even-- Joe Biden has shown signs of being a tight-money guy. It sounds strange to say that Democrats might be the fiscally conservative party this round, but that's the strange reality we live in. Biden's plan to raise corporate tax rates is essentially a tight-money policy that would remove dollars from circulation. So a Democratic sweep in the next election might conceivably cause a return to dollar strength. Trump also recently appointed a gold-standard proponent to Fed Board of Governors, in a sign either that he has no consistent views on monetary policy, or that his views might be growing more conservative. Two more signs that the current administration may be growing more conservative on this are that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said today that "We want a stable dollar," and that the Republican stimulus proposal is only $1 trillion rather than the $2 - 3.5 trillion that some have predicted. Plus, if the stimulus excludes relief for state and local governments (as in the Republican plan), then monetary tightening will be inevitable because state and local governments will have to raise taxes to make up for revenue shortfalls this year. (Again, taxes are a tight-money policy because they remove dollars from circulation.) So while forex traders seem broadly bearish on the dollar as it approaches this trend line, I'm personally less certain that we'll see a breakdown. On this side of the trend line, I think it still makes sense to be long US dollars and US equities. But should we get a trend line break, I'm prepared to start rebalancing to include some emerging markets in my portfolio mix.
TVC:DXY
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
4
USDMXN - Peso - Which way?!The EM currencies aren't moving as much considering the major pairs are...that's an interesting thought to keep in mind! If you're looking for good risk reward trade, i'd go to EM currencies - Major pairs are little over extended. However, for those swing traders PESO looking clean...which way will it break. Will we carry on the pattern of descending channel? Will we reach the retracement Fibonacci 161.8 target? OR will we head higher out of channel and go towards the resistance areas? Add alerts or orders for whichever direction you feel its breaking out to. Remember, we've had a lot of dollar weakness. This is just a trade idea, not a recommendation.
by Trade_Journal
Brazilian ETF: Descending Triangle for Latin American NationGlobal stocks had a nice bounce in early June, outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin as the “reopening” trade took hold and the Federal Reserve kept the spigots of easy money flowing. The MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) rode that wave higher at the time but has fallen flat more recently. Weakening of energy prices and a spreading coronavirus outbreak in the Latin American nation has also made matters worse. This has produced a descending triangle for the ETF, with a series of lower highs since June 8. Downside support is around $28.50. This creates the potential for bearish continuation if the lower price level is broken. Timing is unclear, and there could be some tests above $29.50 to the falling trendline. However, the overall setup could be interesting because EWZ has potential downside toward the low $20s if the current support level breaks.
AMEX:EWZShort
by TradeStation
1
EM Currencies Show Weakness On H1 TimeThe above chart shows the hourly ichimoku cloud of FXCM's emerging market currencies index - EMBASKET. The observations are as follows: - The lime green leading span A had crossed below the red leading span B. - The forward cloud is light pink and indicates resistance. - Price is below the black base line and the base line is moving in a bearish direction. - The orange lagging span is below price, which is indicative of weakness. These observations suggest an element of bearishness for FXCM's EMBASKET.
EShort
by FXCM
1
VWO - following the forecasted trendVWO is finishing a leading diagonal first wave out of the the contracting triangle as forecasted in the April 5 post. It should continue its positive trend ahead with minor corrections on the way. The possible end of minute wave v of minor 1 should be at around 39. After this minor 2 wave should retrace to around 35 before the up trend continues. If prices crosses the lower leading diagonal channel, the odds are that minor 2 correction is already happening. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
AMEX:VWOLong
by SkylinePro
IBB - reached forecasted target and should correctIBB reached the target we forecasted on May 6 and at this stage it should have completed primary wave 5. It should now start a correction that can take it to new lows. The alternative scenario would be that we would see a minor correction to around 115 before trend to new highs. However, in both cases prices should follow the path to at least arounf the most probable target of 115. If prices crosses up 136 this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
NASDAQ:IBBShort
by SkylinePro
A COUNTRY almost in DEFAULT (again). Who's next?--- Please if you find this informative don't forget to give a like. Thank you! --- Just redrawing old ideas from a year ago... Nothing to redraw in fact due it seems they are going to default sooner or later for 19th time in history. You can check for yourself in the related idea just a year ago how the country situation has not improved. This is just a reflection of the symptoms that can already be felt in other countries of the world. Almost all emerging countries suffering high inflation and a continued devaluation of its currency against the dollar, this won't finish well. Other countries to watch: Turkey, Brazil, Australia... all against the dollar that would fall the last. What are your thoughts? Here please you can find a little bit of knowledge and fresh news I wanted to share with you. www.youtube.com Keep safe!
by harribatu
EM Currencies May Be Setting Up For Next Leg DownThe left chart shows the daily chart of FXCM's EMBASKET, which is an equally weighted index of the CNH, MXN, ZAR and TRY. The index is below its black 20-day SMA and the SMA is pointing down. Moreover, the daily RSI is below 50 (blue rectangle), which is indicative of a bearish momentum. The hourly EMAs have crossed bearishly and the hourly RSI has pushed below 50 (green ellipses). These are bearish developments, at a time when the daily chart is reacting off of SMA resistance.
EShort
by FXCM
1
DXY THEORY YOU HAVEN'T HEARD YET!THE DXY IS ONLY MADE UP OF 6 MAJOR CURRENCIES MEASURED AGAINST THE DOLLAR: EUR (57.6% OF THE WEIGHTING), JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), CHF (3.6%) A MISTAKE MANY PEOPLE MAKE WHEN PREDICTING THE DOLLAR'S STRENGTH IS USING THE DXY AS A GAUGE FOR ALL CURRENCIES' PERFORMANCES AGAINST THE DOLLAR! EMERGING MARKET AND MANY OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE DXY! RECENTLY, PETER SCHIFF PLACED A BET WITH BRENT JOHNSON ON THE DIRECTION OF THE DXY, STATING THAT THE DXY WOULD BE WEAKER THAN 99 IN JANUARY 2021, WHILE BRENT JOHNSON PREDICTED IT WOULD BE HIGHER! PETER'S THEORY CLAIMS THAT THE CURRENCIES OF PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WILL STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR FOR MANY OBVIOUS REASONS, WHILE BRENT CLAIMS THAT THE MASSIVE SHORTAGE OF U$Ds WORLDWIDE WILL ACT AS DEMAND ON THE DOLLAR, INCREASING IT'S VALUE AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES! I BELIEVE THEY COULD BE BOTH RIGHT, AND THAT PETER MAY HAVE MADE A MISTAKE IN USING THE DXY AS A BAROMETER: BRENT JOHNSON IS RIGHT BECAUSE: THE WESTERN FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL ABSORB ALL U$Ds CREATED, AND EUR, GBP, CHF AND CAD WILL ESPECIALLY SUFFER BECAUSE OF THE EURODOLLAR SYSTEM! WESTERN ECONOMIES COULD ALSO WEAKEN SEVERELY WHICH WOULD DEVALUE THEIR CURRENCIES IN ADDITION TO A EURODOLLAR SQUEEZE! PETER SCHIFF IS RIGHT BECAUSE: AS COUNTRIES NOT INCLUDED IN THE DXY DIMINISH THEIR TRADE WITH THE U.S.A., AS THEY CEASE USING THE EURODOLLAR TO SETTLE FORMS OF TRADE NOT INVOLVING THE U.S.A. (MAINLY OIL), AND AS THE AMOUNT OF U$Ds' CREATED IN EXCESS OF THEIR DEMAND FOR DOLLARS INCREASES, PRODUCTIVE ASIAN AND EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES WILL ABSOLUTELY STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR, BUT THIS WILL NOT APPEAR IN THE DXY! IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE MEETS THE GLOBAL DEMAND FOR DOLLARS, AND THEN SOME, WHICH WOULD DEVALUE THE DOLLAR AGAINST ALL CURRENCIES, AND I BELIEVE THIS IS THE CASE, BUT I DO NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY EXPLAINED ABOVE!
INDEX:DXYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
US vs. Emerging MarketsThe best-performing markets tend to flip flop every decade or so. For example, in 2000-2010, emerging markets outperformed US markets. In the following decade (2010-2020), US markets significantly outperformed and emerging underperformed. This concept is known as reversion to the mean - valuations get stretched in one direction, and eventually, it is bound to reverse to the historical mean. If we use Total Market Cap/GDP a metric (warren buffet's favourite metric for valuing the entire stock market), and this concept of reversion to the mean to get exact numbers for expected returns, here is what we get: Estimated Annualized Return (Next 10 Years, source: gurufocus.com) United States: 1% Emerging Markets: 23% Estimated Total Market Cap to GDP (Current, source: gurufocus.com) United States: 122% Emerging Markets: 40% Once this current recession/crash is over, I expect sideways movement and slow recovery for US stocks., vs. explosive growth for emerging markets similar to the 2000s. TL;DR: US market bad. Emerging markets good
AMEX:SPY
by delusional