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Emergingmarkets

Brazilian ETF: Descending Triangle for Latin American NationGlobal stocks had a nice bounce in early June, outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin as the “reopening” trade took hold and the Federal Reserve kept the spigots of easy money flowing. The MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) rode that wave higher at the time but has fallen flat more recently. Weakening of energy prices and a spreading coronavirus outbreak in the Latin American nation has also made matters worse. This has produced a descending triangle for the ETF, with a series of lower highs since June 8. Downside support is around $28.50. This creates the potential for bearish continuation if the lower price level is broken. Timing is unclear, and there could be some tests above $29.50 to the falling trendline. However, the overall setup could be interesting because EWZ has potential downside toward the low $20s if the current support level breaks.
AMEX:EWZShort
by TradeStation
1
EM Currencies Show Weakness On H1 TimeThe above chart shows the hourly ichimoku cloud of FXCM's emerging market currencies index - EMBASKET. The observations are as follows: - The lime green leading span A had crossed below the red leading span B. - The forward cloud is light pink and indicates resistance. - Price is below the black base line and the base line is moving in a bearish direction. - The orange lagging span is below price, which is indicative of weakness. These observations suggest an element of bearishness for FXCM's EMBASKET.
FX:EMBASKETShort
by FXCM
1
VWO - following the forecasted trendVWO is finishing a leading diagonal first wave out of the the contracting triangle as forecasted in the April 5 post. It should continue its positive trend ahead with minor corrections on the way. The possible end of minute wave v of minor 1 should be at around 39. After this minor 2 wave should retrace to around 35 before the up trend continues. If prices crosses the lower leading diagonal channel, the odds are that minor 2 correction is already happening. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
AMEX:VWOLong
by SkylinePro
IBB - reached forecasted target and should correctIBB reached the target we forecasted on May 6 and at this stage it should have completed primary wave 5. It should now start a correction that can take it to new lows. The alternative scenario would be that we would see a minor correction to around 115 before trend to new highs. However, in both cases prices should follow the path to at least arounf the most probable target of 115. If prices crosses up 136 this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
NASDAQ:IBBShort
by SkylinePro
A COUNTRY almost in DEFAULT (again). Who's next?--- Please if you find this informative don't forget to give a like. Thank you! --- Just redrawing old ideas from a year ago... Nothing to redraw in fact due it seems they are going to default sooner or later for 19th time in history. You can check for yourself in the related idea just a year ago how the country situation has not improved. This is just a reflection of the symptoms that can already be felt in other countries of the world. Almost all emerging countries suffering high inflation and a continued devaluation of its currency against the dollar, this won't finish well. Other countries to watch: Turkey, Brazil, Australia... all against the dollar that would fall the last. What are your thoughts? Here please you can find a little bit of knowledge and fresh news I wanted to share with you. www.youtube.com Keep safe!
by harribatu
EM Currencies May Be Setting Up For Next Leg DownThe left chart shows the daily chart of FXCM's EMBASKET, which is an equally weighted index of the CNH, MXN, ZAR and TRY. The index is below its black 20-day SMA and the SMA is pointing down. Moreover, the daily RSI is below 50 (blue rectangle), which is indicative of a bearish momentum. The hourly EMAs have crossed bearishly and the hourly RSI has pushed below 50 (green ellipses). These are bearish developments, at a time when the daily chart is reacting off of SMA resistance.
FX:EMBASKETShort
by FXCM
1
DXY THEORY YOU HAVEN'T HEARD YET!THE DXY IS ONLY MADE UP OF 6 MAJOR CURRENCIES MEASURED AGAINST THE DOLLAR: EUR (57.6% OF THE WEIGHTING), JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), CHF (3.6%) A MISTAKE MANY PEOPLE MAKE WHEN PREDICTING THE DOLLAR'S STRENGTH IS USING THE DXY AS A GAUGE FOR ALL CURRENCIES' PERFORMANCES AGAINST THE DOLLAR! EMERGING MARKET AND MANY OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE DXY! RECENTLY, PETER SCHIFF PLACED A BET WITH BRENT JOHNSON ON THE DIRECTION OF THE DXY, STATING THAT THE DXY WOULD BE WEAKER THAN 99 IN JANUARY 2021, WHILE BRENT JOHNSON PREDICTED IT WOULD BE HIGHER! PETER'S THEORY CLAIMS THAT THE CURRENCIES OF PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WILL STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR FOR MANY OBVIOUS REASONS, WHILE BRENT CLAIMS THAT THE MASSIVE SHORTAGE OF U$Ds WORLDWIDE WILL ACT AS DEMAND ON THE DOLLAR, INCREASING IT'S VALUE AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES! I BELIEVE THEY COULD BE BOTH RIGHT, AND THAT PETER MAY HAVE MADE A MISTAKE IN USING THE DXY AS A BAROMETER: BRENT JOHNSON IS RIGHT BECAUSE: THE WESTERN FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL ABSORB ALL U$Ds CREATED, AND EUR, GBP, CHF AND CAD WILL ESPECIALLY SUFFER BECAUSE OF THE EURODOLLAR SYSTEM! WESTERN ECONOMIES COULD ALSO WEAKEN SEVERELY WHICH WOULD DEVALUE THEIR CURRENCIES IN ADDITION TO A EURODOLLAR SQUEEZE! PETER SCHIFF IS RIGHT BECAUSE: AS COUNTRIES NOT INCLUDED IN THE DXY DIMINISH THEIR TRADE WITH THE U.S.A., AS THEY CEASE USING THE EURODOLLAR TO SETTLE FORMS OF TRADE NOT INVOLVING THE U.S.A. (MAINLY OIL), AND AS THE AMOUNT OF U$Ds' CREATED IN EXCESS OF THEIR DEMAND FOR DOLLARS INCREASES, PRODUCTIVE ASIAN AND EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES WILL ABSOLUTELY STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR, BUT THIS WILL NOT APPEAR IN THE DXY! IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE MEETS THE GLOBAL DEMAND FOR DOLLARS, AND THEN SOME, WHICH WOULD DEVALUE THE DOLLAR AGAINST ALL CURRENCIES, AND I BELIEVE THIS IS THE CASE, BUT I DO NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY EXPLAINED ABOVE!
INDEX:DXYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
US vs. Emerging MarketsThe best-performing markets tend to flip flop every decade or so. For example, in 2000-2010, emerging markets outperformed US markets. In the following decade (2010-2020), US markets significantly outperformed and emerging underperformed. This concept is known as reversion to the mean - valuations get stretched in one direction, and eventually, it is bound to reverse to the historical mean. If we use Total Market Cap/GDP a metric (warren buffet's favourite metric for valuing the entire stock market), and this concept of reversion to the mean to get exact numbers for expected returns, here is what we get: Estimated Annualized Return (Next 10 Years, source: gurufocus.com) United States: 1% Emerging Markets: 23% Estimated Total Market Cap to GDP (Current, source: gurufocus.com) United States: 122% Emerging Markets: 40% Once this current recession/crash is over, I expect sideways movement and slow recovery for US stocks., vs. explosive growth for emerging markets similar to the 2000s. TL;DR: US market bad. Emerging markets good
AMEX:SPY
by delusional
EMBASKET Bounces Off Of S3 Pivot on H1Above we see the hourly chart of FXCM's EMBasket, which has bounced off its S3 pivot and been heading upwards since. It is currently tackling resistance at its S1 pivot level. It it breaks through than the next level of overhead resistance may be at the central pivot (P). In assessing if the current price action is a correction in a largely down move we are looking for three occurrences: - A cross by the green 5-hour EMA below the orange 10-hour EMA. - A break of price below the blue upwards sloping trend line. - A cross of the RSI to below the 50 level.
FX:EMBASKETShort
by FXCM
Emerging markets taking a poundingWhile the emotional crowded is full focussed on the S&P, CoronaVirus, Crypto, "exotic" currencies are all dropping hard. Economic slowdown ==> The poor end up in the street first. Turkish people really hate it when I call their country a third world country. They are in denial poor guys, and have been for decades. Just the way it is not my fault. Parts of europe are too, greece, portugal african country at this point, spain on its way, then the rest of europe. RIP. The monthly chart is pretty clear... It would be pretty nice to get a retrace I only do reversals. I think I understand how going with the trend is, it is much much more forgiving but you very often get small reward to risk. This is not financial advice but it's looking like it is just going to continue and continue and continue. If you long this pair there is big interest against you... Kinda ruins it I feel. In the short term there may be some explosive moves to buy, idk... I guess I was right the first time: Other ones I bet when normies / plebes start hearing of those, or seeing how much they moved they'll get all excited and there will be an assault of legions of reptilian brains and wild moves in random directions, but for now they are rather tame with normies focussed on coronafartinthewind, maybe still brexit a bit, crypto still, and "CO2 is a pollutant" joke of the millenia (Tesla in particular). Real speculators want tame markets, predictable and calm (well volatile but not hysterical). Losers chase the most emotional markets they heard about on the news. I am here to make money, not to talk about the latest popular fad with my family or friends (don't have any).
Long
by MrRenev
1