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Emergingmarkets

$EEM Emerging Markets - Dead MoneyAfter a breakout first half in 2019, Emerging Market equities ($EEM as a proxy) have begun to loose some steam. Since February, Emerging Market stocks have been treading water, in relation to their US equity counterparts, trading in an established range of $44-$40 since then. On a technical basis, $EEM weekly chart is showing that Emerging Market stocks are not in trend at the moment, with its ADX below 20, and an RSI remaining flat since June 1st, despite the increase in moment in late May. On a fundamental basis, despite their cheap valuations relative to their Developed Market peers, and accomadative global central bank policies, Emerging Market stocks seem to still be weighed down by economic weakness in China, the US-China trade war, weak global PMIs, and the overall slowdown in global growth. Going forward, we see this trend persisting over the next few weeks and months, unless their is a positive shock to the global economy and financial markets. For looking investors who are adventurous, we recommend investors to drill down within Emerging Market stocks and be selective on a regional and sectoral/industry basis. Additionally, investors should take a look at Frontier Markets ($FM as a proxy), which has performed much better year-to-date in relation to their Emerging Market peers.
AMEX:EEM
by EconomicsGlobal
Take advantage of how sensitive the market is!We currently live in a world where media has major sway in the psychology of investors, including ones who do their homework. After watching $EEM closely, I see that at each major event over the past few months (tariffs placed on China, Federal Reserve doesn't reveal a rate cut at June 18-19th meeting, G20 meeting) the ETF spiked before cooling down as more information became available. I see an opportunity that can be taken advantage of regarding the upcoming FOMC July 30th date. Short term profits although as history has shown they can be short lived, so take profits early I would suggest. The rising wedge suggests a potential spike but an inevitable drop as more data is made available. PS: I forgot to add some indicators to further support my argument, but feel free to comment and give your own opinion, also this is my first post so I'm open to any constructive criticism you have too.
AMEX:EEMLong
by blocknchain
1
EWZ: Viking is back in townI've been working for 5 hours to estimate the trend turns for the next six months. To gain the knowledge to do those five hours are countless. Now, it will not be 100 % accurate in timing. I still have a lot of cycle work to be completed to fine-tune. But it will be quite accurate as I have gone back in time and checked out what EWZ has done in the past. And since the past tells us about the future as history repeats, confidence level is high. Please allow a day or two on each side of the green bars. Price is a different story. I have no clue how to deal with that. But its better to know when price can turn than how high it can go, if you catch my drift?
AMEX:EWZLong
by UnknownUnicorn540299
$USDBRL $EWZ $BVSP - Brazilian Real Under PressureAs market volatility has come back with a vengeance and the US Dollar continues to remain strong, one EM currency that has been hit particularly hard this year has been the Brazilian Real ($USDBRL). Sluggish growth forecasts, coupled with waning support for the Brazilian President has sent the Brazilian Real to its lowest level of the year thus far. The sharp declines have also been fueled by uncertainty over the US-China trade talks on the macro level. The combination of the two forces, the external macro headwinds and feeble domestic economy, have been a perfect storm for the under-performance of the $USDBRL in 2019. Further more, on a technical basis, the $USDBRL continues to show deterioration within the Brazilian Real, with the 10-day EMA being a strong support for the currency pair. We believe if this continues, $USDBRL 4.25 is the next stop.
Long
by EconomicsGlobal
Malaysia - Still Waters Run DeepAs Q2 2019 is underway, global financial markets have experienced a melt-up in assets prices, with some markets up over 20 percent year-to-date. However, despite the run in global asset prices, there is one country that has missed out on the rally, and that is Malaysia. Malaysian equities ( EWM ) (INDEX:KLSE) have declined -3.77% in 2019, taking the mantle as the worst performing equity market this year so far. To further complicate matters, the yield on the Malaysian 10-year government bond has risen to 3.932% as of this post, up from 3.81% in March. Lastly, the Malaysian Ringgit has weakened by 1.92% percent in April 2019, loosing 0.08% against the US Dollar for the year, and forecast to fall further. Under-performance in Malaysian assets in recent trading sessions can be attributed to the fact that global investors are worried that Malaysian bonds may be removed from the FTSE Russel, a key global bond index for international investors. If this were to occur, Malaysian credit markets would see billions of dollars in outflows, in conjunction with a spike in yields, as investors flee the market en masse. However, the under-performance of Malaysian assets in 2019 can be attributed to recent downgrades in Malaysian gross domestic product (“GDP”) by the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”). The IMF downgraded the country’s GDP to 4.5% for 2019, down from 4.7% as stated in their prior forecasts. Growth is expected to slow this year as uncertainty stemming from the US-China trade war is expected to put further pressure on Malaysian exports. Furthermore, on a micro level, the threat of elevated household debt among Malaysian households is also lurking in the background. With household debt-to-GDP levels hovering around 83% in 2018, some of the highest in South East Asia, there is worry that leveraged households who have taken large sums of debt for real estate investment and consumption may have difficulty servicing their existing debt. This is especially worrisome in the midst of a slowing economy. Thus, there is risk that elevated household debt could add further pressure to future economic growth, and threaten economic stability within the Malaysia, if it continues on its current trajectory. As a result, due to these ongoing internal macroeconomic and financial headwinds, we are bearish on Malaysian assets and caution investors to tread lightly within this space.
Short
by EconomicsGlobal
Malaysia - Still Waters Run DeepAs Q2 2019 is underway, global financial markets have experienced a melt-up in assets prices, with some markets up over 20 percent year-to-date. However, despite the run in global asset prices, there is one country that has missed out on the rally, and that is Malaysia. Malaysian equities ( EWM ) (INDEX:KLSE) have declined -3.77% in 2019, taking the mantle as the worst performing equity market this year so far. To further complicate matters, the yield on the Malaysian 10-year government bond has risen to 3.932% as of this post, up from 3.81% in March. Lastly, the Malaysian Ringgit (USDMYR) has weakened by 1.92% percent in April 2019, loosing 0.08% against the US Dollar for the year, and forecast to fall further. Under-performance in Malaysian assets in recent trading sessions can be attributed to the fact that global investors are worried that Malaysian bonds may be removed from the FTSE Russel, a key global bond index for international investors. If this were to occur, Malaysian credit markets would see billions of dollars in outflows, in conjunction with a spike in yields, as investors flee the market en masse. However, the under-performance of Malaysian assets in 2019 can be attributed to recent downgrades in Malaysian gross domestic product (“GDP”) by the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”). The IMF downgraded the country’s GDP to 4.5% for 2019, down from 4.7% as stated in their prior forecasts. Growth is expected to slow this year as uncertainty stemming from the US-China trade war is expected to put further pressure on Malaysian exports. Furthermore, on a micro level, the threat of elevated household debt among Malaysian households is also lurking in the background. With household debt-to-GDP levels hovering around 83% in 2018, some of the highest in South East Asia, there is worry that leveraged households who have taken large sums of debt for real estate investment and consumption may have difficulty servicing their existing debt. This is especially worrisome in the midst of a slowing economy. Thus, there is risk that elevated household debt could add further pressure to future economic growth, and threaten economic stability within the Malaysia, if it continues on its current trajectory. As a result, due to these ongoing internal macroeconomic and financial headwinds, we are bearish on Malaysian assets and caution investors to tread lightly within this space.
INDEX:KLSEShort
by EconomicsGlobal
Hong Kong Dollar Strengthens on Rate SpikeThis is an excerpt from MACRO BRIEF: Hong Kong Dollar Strengthens on Rate Spike originally published March 10, 2019. The short-HKD trade is nearly consensus, which reminds me of the short-yuan trade a few years ago that was largely snuffed out by the PBOC. Problem here, though, is the HKMA's attempts to draw in HKD inflows have been superficial at best. Additionally, with China likely continuing using Hong Kong as a dollar ATM it is hard to estimate how long the strength would last. The 3.7 sigma move has pulled in quite a bit but still remains extended. 7-day ROC saw its largest spike since December when the HIBOR 1M and 3M futures converged. We'll continue to monitor the situation, but prolonged elevation of rates could be a problem considering that Hong Kong's economy is strongly interest rate sensitive with banking assets and domestic credit to public sector as a percentage of GDP at well over 200 percent. To access original charts and commentary on this blog post click here .
by TheMacroStrategist
Expect a Downturn in EM If you Expect a Downturn in the USIts not quite a great idea to invest in EM if one is expecting a downturn as EM will be significantly hit from drying up liquidity via outward capital flows and lower investment. Happened in 2008 with the liquidity crisis and again in 2011 with the EU sovereign debt crisis. We can see this relationship between developed markets and emerging markets through a correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 and the most liquid emerging markets ETF in the world EM. Moreover, EM is vulnerable to a Chinese financial crisis as well if the Chinese can't figure out how to lower their debt levels which they really havn't yet. Either way, I would avoid EM at these price levels.
MIL:EMShort
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
USD/TRY long long longI believe the local election would help to the goverment for next few days and Mr. Albayrak has announced they will show the economic programme in April. But i think that programme will suck cause the Turkey have more serious economical and political problems like unemployment rate is most highest rate before the 2008, the inequality of the Turkish citizens are getting higher. And the biggest problem of Turkey is their growth depend their import products and it cause high number of current deficit. The low TRY would help Turkey to close that deficit. But they have to make reforms which they did in 2002,2003,2004. They should give attention and more care the relationship with USA, Russia and China. President Erdogan has blamed the Jp Morgan for last crash, it doesnt make any sense. If the goverment take reasonable and good positions i would revise my analysis but probably they not and thats my target on TL. Those are just my views not investment advisory.
Long
by alejandrofiles