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Emergingmarkets

S&P 500 entering an ORDER BLOCK | TAPE READINGThe price is edging up. If you look closely, you will see an Elliot 5 Wave impulse. If you know about fractals, you should have that in your trading arsenal because the Elliot Wave principle is a natural, sensational and accurate tool in 'forecasting' price action. The waves move in harmony according to the Fibonacci patterns and spirals. The Fibonacci is the actual backbone of the Elliot wave principle (although i haven't included it in this price level - even though I have, by virtue of Elliot). The US economy is projected to be moving down. With the recent trade wars, French (fuel) tax riots, weakening global demand, drop in oil, and massive debt, the US should start a process of deleveraging soon. The SPX is reflective of the global economy. The markets have been rising this year, the biggest performers in the upcoming quarters should be emerging economies by virtue of the law of diminishing returns. The global landscape is changing right before our eyes as China takes the stage as the the leading super power. Overall, Trump's Trade War was a misdirected battle that's turning out to be a blessing for all emerging economies because it's happening on the backdrop of President Xi's aggressive, futuristic and rather ambitious One Belt One Road Initiative. The global landscape is going to be shaped by the actions of changing global movement and emerging drivers in the global macro economy.
SP:SPXEducation
by Money_Lab
EEM Resuming Bull Market Started in 2016Emerging Markets (EEM) seem to be resuming the bull market that started in early 2016. 1) Recently broke out from downward channel 2) Broke out from alternative shorter term negative trend line 3) Is in the track to end the week confirming a bullish pivot, surpassing the last short term top. Medium term objective is last major top the occurred in jan 18. Long term objective is a major long term impulsive move with similar magnitude and duration of the jan 16 - jan 18 uptrend move. Stop at the same level the EEM completed its pullback to the negative channel.
AMEX:EEMLong
by BrunoBoni
EEM Stuck Below MAEEM is trending in a down-up counter trend. It has failed over the last 8 months to close above its Moving-Average on a weekly basis. I am using the 16-day Moving Average (representing 3 weeks +1 of trading days), but you can play with the period and you will see similar results. EEM is currently testing close to its 16-day Moving Average and near the top of its channel resistance line. This is telling me that there is a strong possibility for the price to drop further down over the next week or two. I think taking a sell-limit at $39.00 with a buy-stop at $40.61 (its 16-day Moving Average), and a take-profit at $37.58 (a previous resistance level tested) is the way to play this trend trade.
AMEX:EEMShort
by BinaryPairing
TSLA - leading the charge but one of many to comeTSLA ; despite their occasional run-in with the SEC or hickup from logistics behind timing in production Tesla is a dominate force in an emerging market and can not be ignored as a force to be reckoned with. AMZN found itself in a very similar situation back in 2005 and since then they have proven their value through diversification and exemplary customer service. The only problems Tesla might run into is over diversifying before the time is right. Musk has been diligent as to feed the company cash as it's needed to ensure the success of the business. The fact that NASA was able to effectively privatize space travel is just icing on the cake and I think we see this trend continue... prisons and space leading the charge but there are many other subcategories that have potential for privatization and Amazon and Tesla will be the leading brands into 2030s, at this rate, no doubts. From the technical side TSLA looks great above 271.85 for the *long* (bullish) ((price to go up))... our next key level and the one acting as resistance presently is 360.47. Beyond this we will push new alltime highs and I believe a catalyst will be required for this to happen and the move will happen quickly.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Wingfield
No, Halvings Don't MatterAs I dig deeper, the Bitcoin picture becomes clearer. I'm starting to believe that Bitcoin is the penny stock of the world's finance. I'm comparing Bitcoin to a fund that manages a basket of EM-related assets. This is the reported breakdown as of October: China 19.95% Other 16.59% South Korea 14.78% Taiwan 11.39% Russia 8.23% Brazil 8.01% South Africa 6.33% India 5.97% Cash & Cash Equivalents 5.29% Peru 3.46% You can see the almost direct relationship between crypto and the fund. As Bitcoin has grown, the behaviour has become more and more similar between the two. Even back in 2012 there was already a developing parallel. This has lead me to believe that more than crypto being at the mercy of the dollar, in order for the space to be bullish, the world's finance has to have the right conditions. Investors need to be so confident that they move not only into emerging markets, but go all the way into the penny stock of the world. It isn't yet completely clear to me why EMs top first, but it may have something to do with the low cap nature of crypto. As for the bottoms, there isn't a clear relationship either. I'm inclined to say that crypto rallies first, once again, due to its low cap nature. This isn't always the case, but it could be a good explanation. Beyond the fact that crypto might simply be a penny stock for people on a macro scale, it seems that "domestic" issues, such as halvings, hacks, news, forks, etc. only seem to affect either the slope of the trend or very localised movements. If we look back at the 2013 rally it doesn't make it implausible to have a move to 10-15k by December. Furthermore, meme lines won't predict or find the real bottom. What you can do is start looking into real world issues. The overall financial world needs a very confident outlook in order for crypto to move. That being said, I feel that emerging markets will have a breather soon, allowing crypto to have a partially bullish move. TL;DR halvings don't matter for macro trend. For moon or crash you need to look at emerging markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1038536
3
Mixed Technique: Bring back strong peso and old school reggaetonWelcome to the series where I play with both technical and fundamental aspects of the market. Leave your suggestions if you want me to cover a specific asset. Technical story: As everyone but Maluma noticed, FX_IDC:EURCOP is really close to marking all time... close, but breaking high may come too. The correlation with emerging markets ( AMEX:VWO ), although broken in 2017 and for the most of 2018, seems to be making a return. It is hard to judge it because the market sell-off usually unites different asset sub-classes better than Santos uniting people of Colombia (no disrespect, calm yourself down). USDCOP broke out of the long-term wedge and seems to be heading higher. We have two main resistance lines to watch now: 3710 and 3910; and two main support lines: 3610 and 3555. For now the EURCOP seems to be making new 52-week high, it may suggest further upward moves. Neither of used indicators is suggesting the end of the rally. VWO coming down would definitely trigger the risk-on mode and bid the COP. If we face a bear market, the COP will definitely not be used as a safe haven. Fundamental story: Fundamentals look a little bit better for Colombia. I prepared a couple of charts for you: GDP seems to be improving, inflation is kept low, debt to GDP is falling. Most of fundamentals suggest there is nothing as bad in Colombia as there was in 2016. Currency is however howering around levels from 2016. I presume it is falling down with the rest of emerging currencies, suggesting risk-off mode. fred.stlouisfed.org - interest rate differential with USD suggests COP should be way lower. I KNOW IT IS USD, don't cry please. We can see however that heading to 2016 the currency was crushed. This was back when the economy was not doing so good and GDP dropped. Look like worries came back, but they are not to be seen for now. fred.stlouisfed.org - Real Broad effective exchange rate (RBEER) rallied a lot during this year and the yoy change seems to be too high as for interest rate differential (IRD, used TVC:DE10Y as a proxy for Euro long term interest rate). In the years 2005, 2007, 2010, when it happened, the yoy change in RBEER caught up eventually within 1-2 years. Beware the IRD yoy change is already below zero for more than a year. fred.stlouisfed.org - my favourite chart. Real interest rate differential vs EURCOP. The currency pair seems to have rallied a bit too much in 2016 and 2017 and we can expect a comeback to the range 3200-3000. Other option is that Colombian yields would have to rally suggesting weakness in Colombia's credibility or economy d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net - Manufacturing PMI is above 50 and suggests a healthy economy In the first half of 2018 it looked like the FX_IDC:EURCOP was trying to break lower but I believe the current market situation kicked it higher Conclusions: Technicals are undecided yet. We are at a cross-road. In my opinion it is flipping a bird at COP bulls and may strengthen EUR against our reggeaton peso. Fundamentals of Colombia are strong and even interest rate differential sugest that the currency should appreciate against the euro. I believe it is a short-term bearish, long-term bullish situation for COP.
by Slimsy
1
Emerging markets bounce? Emerging Markets ETFs are in a parallel channel. Price just bounced on the lower limit. Investors are concerned about the high inflation to be expected in the US (3.7% unemployment = wages going up) which would encourage the FED to raise interests even more and drive the USD up. A high USD and higher yields would draw investors away from EM because they could get a decent return at lower risk (Bonds or T-Bills). The trade war risks is obviously not helping. In addition, higher interest rates would result in higher DEBT/GDP ratios in emerging countries that However, one can argue that those factors have been priced in since EEM is down 25% in 2018, and it could be a good time to buy. I would not be too confident about that. If the overall trend goes down, EM are likely to perform poorly. If Trump backs-up on tariffs, which is extremely unlikely, then the outlook could change. Trade safe!
AMEX:EEM
by Tutur
Opportunity on ECH ?During the month of September, the Chilean indicator has moved a lot, where with the rebalancing product of the departure of 10 companies, the 30 that stayed have suffered several changes in their weighting, which undoubtedly affected this week, coinciding with a bad debut of the new method. However, when refining the pencil, we can be at a decisive moment and contemplate a stronger fall, if it lose the level of 50% fibo and the ema100. Otherwise, could bounce something during the next few days and finalize a good month ... we must look closely to emerging, and global indicators Durante el mes de septiembre, se ha movido bastante el indicador Chileno, en donde con el rebalanceo producto de la salida de 10 empresas, las 30 que quedaron sufrieron varias modificaciones en su ponderación, lo cual indudablemente afecto esta semana, coincidiendo con un mal debut del nuevo método. Sin embargo, al afinar el lápiz, podemos estar en un momento decisivo y contemplar una caída mas fuerte, de perder el 50% fibo y la ema100. Por otro lado, podría rebotar algo durante las próximas horas y finiquitar un buen cierre de mes... a estar muy atento con los emergentes, e indicadores globales
S
by laegtcl