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NASDAQ Futures Long Setup: Pullback Entry After Tariff BoostMarket Outlook – April 13, 2025 Quick recap: In my last public analysis, I mentioned watching the 18,350–18,000 zone for signs of support — a level stacked with confluence (50–61.8% Fib, EMA, VWAP, pivot). Price broke down deeper than expected but responded beautifully: ✅ Tagged 18,000 almost to the tick ✅ Rejected hard at the 61.8 Fib ✅ Respected the 50 Fib on the way back up All solid signs of strength. Now with tariff exemptions announced today (bullish for tech/Nasdaq), I’m opening the door to more long setups this week. Here’s What I’m Watching: 🔹 Scenario A: Pullback into the 18,575–18,500 zone (first dotted white line). If price reclaims structure or gives me something clean — EMA bounce, VWAP tag, candle pattern — I’ll look for longs. 🔹 Scenario B: If that level breaks or I miss the first shot, I’ll look for a second chance around 18,000–18,300. Same deal: not jumping in blindly, waiting for a setup to form. To be clear — these are areas of interest, not automatic trades. I want clean structure and confirmation before entering. Let’s see how it plays out. Will update if/when I take a position. Stay sharp. 📈
CME_MINI:MNQM2025Long
by natron
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Last week I wrote that we need a proper channel down and the past week was the worst case scenario for the bulls. We could not even get to the 50% retracement and turned down violently again. There is a small chance for the bulls to make this a double bottom and go sideways but as of now that is very very low probability. More likely is that we have formed the top of the channel and will get a big second leg down to 18000 or lower. If we go down below 19000, my thesis is that we go down for 2 more weeks and then earnings will decide on the next impulse. For now the technicals are clear, market could not even retrace 50%, we turned around the daily 20ema and volume on the down move is picking up again. Everything points to a bear trend. current market cycle: strong bear trend key levels: 19000 - 20500 bull case: Bulls running for the exits. They have some previous support at the 2024-09 low 19073 but that is most likely not stopping this freight train down. Next big support is at 18000/18100 which is my W3 target. Only question now is if we find buyers tomorrow who want to keep the market above 19000. It’s not impossible that we could see 1-2 more days of stalling around 19000 but given the current structure the selling is just too strong to look for any longs. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears have now erased about a year of gains and we are heading lower. Friday was another strong sell signal and bears now want to close the monthly bar at the very low to also produce a huge sell signal on the weekly and monthly charts. The selling is strong enough for at least a decent sized second leg and the measured move leads to 16200 which is between my year-end-special target of 17500 and the bull trend line from the covid lows. Plan for the next 2 weeks is the W3 and W4 where I expect W3 to hit 18000 and W4 could retest 19000. Invalidation is above 20600. short term: Clear bear trend now once we drop below 19000. W3 should get us to around 18000 while W4 could be good for a retest of 19000. No longs for me what so ever. Big bear trend line from 22450 has to hold. medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. Clear W1 of this bear trend. Market now has to close below 19000 to confirm W3. Depending on how deep W3 goes, W5 will either reach only around 17500 or the bull trend line around 16000. current swing trade: None chart update: Added most likely upper bear trend line and adjusted the 5-wave series.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
S&P 500 – Unstable Ground, Smart Money Seeks Stability🚨 S&P 500 – Unstable Ground, Smart Money Seeks Stability 🚨 “Markets don’t like uncertainty. Money flows where confidence is strong, and right now… that’s NOT here.” 🔥 Key Concerns: ✅ U.S. Policies Creating Instability – A crisis-driven environment shakes investor confidence. ✅ S&P Struggling to Hold Strength – Momentum is weak, smart money is hesitant. ✅ Blue Box = First Resistance Zone – A tough level to break, especially in this macro climate. 💡 The Game Plan: Short Bias from the Blue Box – Until proven otherwise, this level is resistance. LTF Breakdowns & CDV Confirmation = High-Probability Shorts – We don’t guess, we react. No Clean Break Above? The Trend Remains Fragile. “Markets punish uncertainty. Right now, the S&P is walking on thin ice—be cautious, be tactical.” 🔥📉 I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge. I have a long list of my proven technique below: 🎯 ZENUSDT.P: Patience & Profitability | %230 Reaction from the Sniper Entry 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total 🌟 FORTHUSDT: Sniper Entry +%26 Reaction 🐳 QKCUSDT: Sniper Entry +%57 Reaction 📊 BTC.D: Retest of Key Area Highly Likely I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by UmutTrades
2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 1h 20ema is flat as your first girlfriend. Don’t over analyze this trading range. 50% of it is around 21560 and we are seeing bulls buying dips, taking the stairs while bears violently crash the elevator down in between. Will likely see a bigger impulse tomorrow or Monday. I have no bigger opinion on which side will get it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21300 - 21780 bull case: Bulls need to close the big gap to 21900 and maybe some points above to get all the stops and turn the market truly neutral again. For now bears are defending it well, which is bad for the bulls. Bulls have going for them that they are printing higher highs and higher lows and are trading above the daily 20ema but as long as the gap stays open, they are not doing enough. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears only argument is the open gap to 21900 but other than that, they are fumbling it again. If try get to 21450 or below tomorrow and fail again to print lower lows below 21350, odds favor the bulls to rally hard into the weekend. Invalidation is above 21900. short term: Neutral as can be. 21560 is my mid point for this and mean reversing was profitable the past 2 days. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 21450 or selling above 21700 has been good the past 2 days. Do it until it clearly is not working anymore.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: One again we saw a huge Globex sell spike but now follow-through. Bulls are on their way to 6100 and there we will see how many buyers we can find to retest the ath 6186. Plan is simple, trade the bull channel/expanding triangle until clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range (obvious bull trend on lower time frames) key levels: 6000 - 6100 (above 6100 comes 6200 into play) bull case: Bulls are in BTFD mode and making higher highs again. 6100 is their next target and the last resistance until 6186. Problem for the bulls is that we get decent sell spikes and holding through them is tough. That is probably why we see bigger profit taking when we print new highs. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Bears ask themselves how many pushes on whatever time frame bulls can honestly get. The 6100 likely won’t hold but how many are willing to buy above 6100 when we could easily pull-back 100 points. We will find out tomorrow. Bears don’t have many arguments. We have a clear bull pattern upwards and the best they can hope for is to scalp short on new highs for a decent pull-back. Until bears can close consecutive bars below 6000, I would not look for bigger shorts. Given the current erratic price action due to orange man tweets, it’s a wild ride. Trade smaller and with wider stops. Invalidation is above 6120. short term: Bullish for 6100, then Neutral until clearly breaking out above again. Targets above are 6186 and then 6200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 6000, duh. Otherwise literally every touch of the 1h 20ema.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: After hours selling was strong, especially on nasdaq. Sp500 is still well above 5950, which is my line in the sand for bulls. Below the odds for the bears increase big time. I still lean bullish for a retest of 6000 and I do think bears need stronger selling (spike + channel) to trap late bulls. Today was a trending trading range where all bars overlapped big time. The odds that we break below such a day after that rally are very low. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls want to chop around 6000 to find more acceptance and break above the big bear channel. Their next target is the prior high 6068. On the previous short squeeze we melted to 6068, pulled back hard for 60 points and then print a lower high. I still expect bulls to get a lower high closer to 6000, if not the breakout above. Invalidation is below 5950. bear case: Bears want to get below 5950 and then test the breakout price of 5918. The 50% retracement is also there at 5913. For now I don’t think today’s price action was that bearish but the after hours selling is weird to say the least. It’s a bad spot for both sides to trade at 5960ish. Invalidation is above 6020. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. Again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 6000 was decent many many times.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-01-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and happy new year. comment: Bears have all the arguments on their side now. Santa rally was drowned and market formed a textbook head & shoulders pattern. My lowest target in my year end special was around 5300 and the h&s target is 5400. The yearly close below 6000 was very important for the bears because now we have multiple confirmations of the sell-off and sell signals going into the new year. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6120 bull case: Bulls are in serious doubt about this bull trend. They need a strong close above 6000 to keep the market neutral between 5900 - 6100. If they manage that, we move sideways for longer. We have a triangle on the daily chart which could hold for a couple more days before we see a bigger breakout. We are also still trading above the weekly 20ema but that’s at 5930 and the next daily bear close will close below. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears have many arguments on their side. For bulls it’s a bad place to force the market to bottom out because they have much bigger support at 5800. Bulls have also blown the rally by printing the lower high 6107 and the head & shoulders looks too perfect for bears. Volume has also increased decently so bears have now created many good sell signals going into 2025. My rough guess for the next days is either more chop inside the triangle before the second leg down or a fast and decisive move tomorrow/Friday down to 5800 and below to test the bigger bull trend line around 5750. Invalidation is above 6100. short term: Neutral 5900 - 6000. Bearish below 5900 for 5800 and then 5750. Can’t see this going above 6100 but if we do, I am wrong and we likely do 6200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Market was closed
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Bearish. Good selling today and bulls could not close above the breakout price around 5990. The close was near the open of the week and since we had a big gap down, this is bearish confirmation. Below 5900 this could very well close the year below 5860, which would be a nasty bearish reversal bar on the monthly chart and a clear sell signal going into January. Bulls need to break above the trend line and 6000 again and a close above it would be neutral. comment: I am heavily favoring a yearly close below 5900 as of now. The selling is strong enough and bears made lower highs again. Anything below 5860 would surprise me though. We are in a clear bear channel and bulls need something above 5965 and bears a break below 5900. The open of December was near 6100 and the lower bears can close this monthly bear bar, the better. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6050 bull case: Bulls retraced 78.6% of the sell-off which was the fib retracement to the tick. Did it help? No. Very strong selling into the close again and after hours. Bulls need to fight for 6000. The only thing they have going for them is that we made a higher low. Any yearly close above 6000 would be good for them. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears are trading below the 1h 20ema, daily 20ema and have 2 bear trend lines going for them. They need strong follow through tomorrow and close this below 5865, which was the previous December low. We have nested bear channels on the 1h chart but also a triangle with last weeks low. Objectives for the bears tomorrow are to keep the 1h 20ema resistance and break below 5900 to test 5865. Invalidation is above 6038. short term: Neutral 5950 - 6000. Bearish below 5950 for 5900 and then 5865. Uber bearish below 5865. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling since Globex open. The reversal from the 5918 low was very strong and trapped many late bears. Second best trade was to take it and hold until market stalled for multiple hours near 5990.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special nasdaq eminiGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: If you have read part 1 of 2, much of the following will be the same. Nasdaq has now gained 80%+ since the 2022-10 lows. Again, if you think it’s more likely that we will do another 15%+ up next year because this time it’s different, I don’t have much for you and you can stop reading now. Now matter how you draw the bull trend since, it has had at least 3 clear big legs up where the last one was the shortest with the least pull-backs. The confirmation for it to end would be consecutive daily closes below 20800. For now bears have not had two consecutive weekly bear bars since September. The trend is overdone to say the least. As for dax and sp500, a 20% correction would bring us down to big previous support 2024-04 and 2024-08 at 17900. My first medium-term target would be the big bull trend line, which is overlapping a fair bit with the monthly 20ema. The trend line is around 19700-20000 and the monthly 20ema is currently at 18900. For the near term I expect the market to get it’s second leg down early in 2025 and potential targets are the 50% pb of the last bull leg and the previous ath from 2024-07 which would bring us to 20400-20650. current market cycle: Bull trend of the past two years has likely ended and new lows below 20900 will be the confirmation, at least to me. Technically only a break of the big bull trend line would confirm it (around 19700 currently) key levels for 2025: 17800 - 22500 (decent chance we will see 20000 only in the first couple of weeks and then only in a couple of months or years again) bull case: Bull trend is technically over once we break below the bull trend line which is currently 19600. Bulls are still very far above that and trading above the weekly 20ema. They remain in control for now but after such a long ongoing rally they are trading the momentum only because stonkz can only go up eh. I really don’t have much for the bulls here. We could do another try of 22000 and above and even print a new ath but the upside will probably be very limited. Don’t expect bullish outlooks from me over the next weeks. I will only scalp long on big support. The best outcome for bulls that I see is sideways above 20000. Anything below will accelerate to the downside. Invalidation is below 17400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 15000 again. bear case: In order, my first big target for the bears for 2025 is 19000, where I expect more sideways movement. Below 19000 comes 18000 which was previous support and the lowest I can see this for now is 17400. Bears would need stronger follow through below 21500 early in January and then make new lows below 20900. Then I see the odds of a measured move down to 19500-20000 as decent. On my weekly chart you can see my preferred path forward for the next months. 3 legs down where leg 1 was the drop from 22450 to 21000. I do think it’s much more likely to expect a break of the dashed bull trend line than another leg up. Invalidation is above 22600. short term: The year end rally was stopped short at 22110 and I don’t think bulls have enough strength to go above it Monday/Tuesday. We could see a spike up after new years but if we close 2024 below 21500, I expect the spike to be sold as well. If we don’t trade above 22000 by 2025-01-03, I see the odds that the top is in at 70%. My short term target for the bears is 21000 and lowest for now is 20700 for me. If 20700 is not bigger support, 20300 is my next target. medium-long term: As stated above, “If we don’t trade above 22000 by 2025-01-03, I see the odds that the top is in at 70%.”. In that case, my bear targets medium term are 19000 and long term lowest target as of now, is 17400. Anything above 22500 would surprise me. current swing trade: I will initiate longer term shorts depending on next weeks price action. Any short would need a stop with at least 22600.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024-12-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. We stayed below Friday’s high but bulls had a really bullish close. Until they get a strong move above 6050, I lean neutral. Above 6050 there is no more resistance until 6100. Bears something below 5965 but for now they could be very happy with any daily close below 6000. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5950 - 6050 bull case: Very strong close by the bulls. Year end rally is on if they get follow through above 6050 tomorrow. A measured move up from Friday’s rally would bring us 6230+. For now we have a clear bull wedge which leads perfectly to 6100 tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears did ok until the breakout above 6030. Now they have a do or die moment again to keep the market below 6050 or they need to cover because market could go all the way up to 6200 or higher. Invalidation is above 6050. short term: Neutral. Very bullish close but bulls need follow through above 6050 tomorrow. If they get it, we probably won’t stop until 6100 or higher. Market is in balance around 6000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling 6030 before EU open and buying 5985 because of the head & shoulders bottom (head was the low 5965) after US open on the 5m tf.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
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