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2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: One again we saw a huge Globex sell spike but now follow-through. Bulls are on their way to 6100 and there we will see how many buyers we can find to retest the ath 6186. Plan is simple, trade the bull channel/expanding triangle until clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range (obvious bull trend on lower time frames) key levels: 6000 - 6100 (above 6100 comes 6200 into play) bull case: Bulls are in BTFD mode and making higher highs again. 6100 is their next target and the last resistance until 6186. Problem for the bulls is that we get decent sell spikes and holding through them is tough. That is probably why we see bigger profit taking when we print new highs. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Bears ask themselves how many pushes on whatever time frame bulls can honestly get. The 6100 likely won’t hold but how many are willing to buy above 6100 when we could easily pull-back 100 points. We will find out tomorrow. Bears don’t have many arguments. We have a clear bull pattern upwards and the best they can hope for is to scalp short on new highs for a decent pull-back. Until bears can close consecutive bars below 6000, I would not look for bigger shorts. Given the current erratic price action due to orange man tweets, it’s a wild ride. Trade smaller and with wider stops. Invalidation is above 6120. short term: Bullish for 6100, then Neutral until clearly breaking out above again. Targets above are 6186 and then 6200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 6000, duh. Otherwise literally every touch of the 1h 20ema.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: After hours selling was strong, especially on nasdaq. Sp500 is still well above 5950, which is my line in the sand for bulls. Below the odds for the bears increase big time. I still lean bullish for a retest of 6000 and I do think bears need stronger selling (spike + channel) to trap late bulls. Today was a trending trading range where all bars overlapped big time. The odds that we break below such a day after that rally are very low. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls want to chop around 6000 to find more acceptance and break above the big bear channel. Their next target is the prior high 6068. On the previous short squeeze we melted to 6068, pulled back hard for 60 points and then print a lower high. I still expect bulls to get a lower high closer to 6000, if not the breakout above. Invalidation is below 5950. bear case: Bears want to get below 5950 and then test the breakout price of 5918. The 50% retracement is also there at 5913. For now I don’t think today’s price action was that bearish but the after hours selling is weird to say the least. It’s a bad spot for both sides to trade at 5960ish. Invalidation is above 6020. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. Again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 6000 was decent many many times.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-01-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and happy new year. comment: Bears have all the arguments on their side now. Santa rally was drowned and market formed a textbook head & shoulders pattern. My lowest target in my year end special was around 5300 and the h&s target is 5400. The yearly close below 6000 was very important for the bears because now we have multiple confirmations of the sell-off and sell signals going into the new year. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6120 bull case: Bulls are in serious doubt about this bull trend. They need a strong close above 6000 to keep the market neutral between 5900 - 6100. If they manage that, we move sideways for longer. We have a triangle on the daily chart which could hold for a couple more days before we see a bigger breakout. We are also still trading above the weekly 20ema but that’s at 5930 and the next daily bear close will close below. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears have many arguments on their side. For bulls it’s a bad place to force the market to bottom out because they have much bigger support at 5800. Bulls have also blown the rally by printing the lower high 6107 and the head & shoulders looks too perfect for bears. Volume has also increased decently so bears have now created many good sell signals going into 2025. My rough guess for the next days is either more chop inside the triangle before the second leg down or a fast and decisive move tomorrow/Friday down to 5800 and below to test the bigger bull trend line around 5750. Invalidation is above 6100. short term: Neutral 5900 - 6000. Bearish below 5900 for 5800 and then 5750. Can’t see this going above 6100 but if we do, I am wrong and we likely do 6200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Market was closed
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Bearish. Good selling today and bulls could not close above the breakout price around 5990. The close was near the open of the week and since we had a big gap down, this is bearish confirmation. Below 5900 this could very well close the year below 5860, which would be a nasty bearish reversal bar on the monthly chart and a clear sell signal going into January. Bulls need to break above the trend line and 6000 again and a close above it would be neutral. comment: I am heavily favoring a yearly close below 5900 as of now. The selling is strong enough and bears made lower highs again. Anything below 5860 would surprise me though. We are in a clear bear channel and bulls need something above 5965 and bears a break below 5900. The open of December was near 6100 and the lower bears can close this monthly bear bar, the better. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6050 bull case: Bulls retraced 78.6% of the sell-off which was the fib retracement to the tick. Did it help? No. Very strong selling into the close again and after hours. Bulls need to fight for 6000. The only thing they have going for them is that we made a higher low. Any yearly close above 6000 would be good for them. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears are trading below the 1h 20ema, daily 20ema and have 2 bear trend lines going for them. They need strong follow through tomorrow and close this below 5865, which was the previous December low. We have nested bear channels on the 1h chart but also a triangle with last weeks low. Objectives for the bears tomorrow are to keep the 1h 20ema resistance and break below 5900 to test 5865. Invalidation is above 6038. short term: Neutral 5950 - 6000. Bearish below 5950 for 5900 and then 5865. Uber bearish below 5865. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling since Globex open. The reversal from the 5918 low was very strong and trapped many late bears. Second best trade was to take it and hold until market stalled for multiple hours near 5990.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special nasdaq eminiGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: If you have read part 1 of 2, much of the following will be the same. Nasdaq has now gained 80%+ since the 2022-10 lows. Again, if you think it’s more likely that we will do another 15%+ up next year because this time it’s different, I don’t have much for you and you can stop reading now. Now matter how you draw the bull trend since, it has had at least 3 clear big legs up where the last one was the shortest with the least pull-backs. The confirmation for it to end would be consecutive daily closes below 20800. For now bears have not had two consecutive weekly bear bars since September. The trend is overdone to say the least. As for dax and sp500, a 20% correction would bring us down to big previous support 2024-04 and 2024-08 at 17900. My first medium-term target would be the big bull trend line, which is overlapping a fair bit with the monthly 20ema. The trend line is around 19700-20000 and the monthly 20ema is currently at 18900. For the near term I expect the market to get it’s second leg down early in 2025 and potential targets are the 50% pb of the last bull leg and the previous ath from 2024-07 which would bring us to 20400-20650. current market cycle: Bull trend of the past two years has likely ended and new lows below 20900 will be the confirmation, at least to me. Technically only a break of the big bull trend line would confirm it (around 19700 currently) key levels for 2025: 17800 - 22500 (decent chance we will see 20000 only in the first couple of weeks and then only in a couple of months or years again) bull case: Bull trend is technically over once we break below the bull trend line which is currently 19600. Bulls are still very far above that and trading above the weekly 20ema. They remain in control for now but after such a long ongoing rally they are trading the momentum only because stonkz can only go up eh. I really don’t have much for the bulls here. We could do another try of 22000 and above and even print a new ath but the upside will probably be very limited. Don’t expect bullish outlooks from me over the next weeks. I will only scalp long on big support. The best outcome for bulls that I see is sideways above 20000. Anything below will accelerate to the downside. Invalidation is below 17400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 15000 again. bear case: In order, my first big target for the bears for 2025 is 19000, where I expect more sideways movement. Below 19000 comes 18000 which was previous support and the lowest I can see this for now is 17400. Bears would need stronger follow through below 21500 early in January and then make new lows below 20900. Then I see the odds of a measured move down to 19500-20000 as decent. On my weekly chart you can see my preferred path forward for the next months. 3 legs down where leg 1 was the drop from 22450 to 21000. I do think it’s much more likely to expect a break of the dashed bull trend line than another leg up. Invalidation is above 22600. short term: The year end rally was stopped short at 22110 and I don’t think bulls have enough strength to go above it Monday/Tuesday. We could see a spike up after new years but if we close 2024 below 21500, I expect the spike to be sold as well. If we don’t trade above 22000 by 2025-01-03, I see the odds that the top is in at 70%. My short term target for the bears is 21000 and lowest for now is 20700 for me. If 20700 is not bigger support, 20300 is my next target. medium-long term: As stated above, “If we don’t trade above 22000 by 2025-01-03, I see the odds that the top is in at 70%.”. In that case, my bear targets medium term are 19000 and long term lowest target as of now, is 17400. Anything above 22500 would surprise me. current swing trade: I will initiate longer term shorts depending on next weeks price action. Any short would need a stop with at least 22600.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024-12-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. We stayed below Friday’s high but bulls had a really bullish close. Until they get a strong move above 6050, I lean neutral. Above 6050 there is no more resistance until 6100. Bears something below 5965 but for now they could be very happy with any daily close below 6000. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5950 - 6050 bull case: Very strong close by the bulls. Year end rally is on if they get follow through above 6050 tomorrow. A measured move up from Friday’s rally would bring us 6230+. For now we have a clear bull wedge which leads perfectly to 6100 tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears did ok until the breakout above 6030. Now they have a do or die moment again to keep the market below 6050 or they need to cover because market could go all the way up to 6200 or higher. Invalidation is above 6050. short term: Neutral. Very bullish close but bulls need follow through above 6050 tomorrow. If they get it, we probably won’t stop until 6100 or higher. Market is in balance around 6000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling 6030 before EU open and buying 5985 because of the head & shoulders bottom (head was the low 5965) after US open on the 5m tf.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: For the sp500 the start of the bull trend is a bit less clear as for dax. My take is that it started with the 2023-10 low and before that was still the big trading range the main pattern. Does it matter if my wave thesis is off for W1 or where W4 ended? I don’t think it does. My targets (obvious magnets) would still be the same. We have a bull trend that went up a pretty perfect measured move from the Covid low to the 2023-10 low. This will be my biggest target for 2025. We then have a perfect magnet down to the previous ath from 2022-01 at 5300, which is the 50% retracement of the bull trend from 2023-10 to the ath. 5300 will be the first and most important target for the bears in the medium-term. Depending on how we get there, we can estimate on if and how we could get down to 4400. As of now, it is unlikely that we will see 4400 in 2025. Something bigger has to happen and markets need to change drastically. A liquidity event would certainly help. current market cycle: Bull trend from 2023-10 has likely ended already and we are transitioning into a trading range or new bear trend. By the end of January we will know for sure what it will be. key levels for 2025: 5000 - 6200 bull case: Since the bigger western indexes are highly correlated, many arguments for them are the same. Past two years gave the bulls 55+% in gains while the biggest pull-back was 10% in 2024-08. The bulls have made money buying the weekly 20ema for a year and they don’t want to stop because this time it surely is different and valuations are boomer metrics for poor people who did not get in on the latest fartcoin pump. I don’t have anything more to say in this section. Invalidation is below 4400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 4000 again. bear case: Long ongoing climactic bull trend and every new high got smaller. Bears know the bulls have to take profit at some point, especially after a prolonged period without pull-backs. Once the profit taking get’s going, this will accelerate downwards to find bigger support. The first target for the bears is a daily close below 5900 and then a test of the nearest bull trend line around 5800. We can only expect more sideways once we get there. When bears finally break it, 5500 is the next obvious magnet and we then have only one more big bull trend line left, which is the one from the Covid lows. As mentioned above, the 50% retracement for this trend is as perfect as it get’s the previous ath near 5300 and for now this will be my biggest target to hit in 2025. Again, depending on how we get there, we can either estimate lower targets or expect the market to move sideways in a bigger range. Invalidation is above 6300. short term: Same argument for year end rally as for dax. Highest I can see this going for 6250 (give or take) and then we will test the first bull trend line around 5800 over the next weeks. 5500 in Q1 is my estimate as of now. medium-long term: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None but same argument as for dax. Short ETF until we hit 5300 is reasonable.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
1
SPY, Major Warning has been signalled for the stock market. The stock markets have been rattled by a concerning development that historically has been a precursor to increased volatility and economic uncertainty - the uninversion of the yield curve. In December, long-term interest rates fell below short-term rates, reversing the inversion that had been in place. This yield curve uninversion is often viewed as a potential warning sign of an impending recession, as it has preceded the last seven recessions in the United States. Looking back at past data, the last time the yield curve was uninverted in this manner was in 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a major market downturn. Prior to that, it uninverted in 2006-2007, shortly before the Great Recession hit in 2008-2009. While the yield curve uninversion does not guarantee an imminent recession, it has proven to be a reliable leading indicator of increased market volatility and economic slowdown. Trade safe, Trader Leo
SP:SPX
by BTM-LEO
5
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Selling was too strong to be just a pullback in this bull trend. Best guess is that the trend is over and we are in a huge two-legged correction down to 5800 or lower. 5927 was the low from my W2 and we can expect sideways to up around this price. The lower bull wedge trend line should get a retest. comment : Bull trend is over. We are likely in a trading range the next weeks until we begin a new bigger bear trend. Bulls can still make a higher but it has gotten very unlikely after today’s selling. Huge follow-through would be down to 5800 but that’s a bit much for now. A bounce could retest the lower bull wedge line around 6000-6050, depending on when we get there, if we get there. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6050 bull case: Bulls might be running for the exits. Very interesting day tomorrow if bears can close another one below 6000 or if we trade back up. I would only take longs on very strong momentum. First target for bulls is 6000 and then 6050ish. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears with a huge surprise bar, changing the market character and ending this rally. Now their target is to keep the market below 6000 and then they have a chance of selling down to 5800. It is still somewhat unlikely to see bigger follow-through selling during these weeks of the year but it could happen. Right now it’s best to be flat and wait if bears want more blood. Invalidation is above 6100. short term: Neutral. Only small scalps for me to either direction. Can have bigger swings going into Opex on Friday. Expecting a bigger bounce going into the last 2 weeks of December and then much bigger selling in Q1 2025. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Nothing. Don’t gamble FOMC or other news releases.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Prices are messed up due to contract change but my lower targets were hit and market is in balance at now 6140ish. Huge support 6115 for the bulls and bears need a strong 1h bar close below it for lower prices. Bulls are in full control when market can only go sideways right under the ath. comment : Both sides made money today so I expect them to do the same tomorrow. If anything I see the chances of another bull breakout higher than a break below. We have clear support at 6115 and until this is strongly broken, look for longs near it. current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon key levels: 6115 - 6200 (contract change, so prices are much higher compared to Monday) bull case: Bulls are still buying the dips and making money. They prevent any stronger selling and that is why most will expect a break above the 1h 20ema tomorrow and the bear trend line. 6150 is their target for tomorrow. Depending on what Jpow delivers, we could melt up again but it’s a gamble I am not willing to take tomorrow. Many bulls also bought this because it’s close to the daily 20ema. We have closed once below it in the past 6 weeks. Invalidation is below 6100. bear case: Bears are trying but getting nowhere. They make money scalping but that’s about it. How likely is acceleration downwards? Very unlikely. Most bullish weeks of the year and markets are at peak euphoria. Invalidation is above 6200. short term: Neutral. FOMC tomorrow and if anything I expect bulls to trade back up to 6180 going into it. 6115 - 6140 is neutral. Bearish only below 6100. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling since Globex or buying previous support 6115. Bears kept it below the 1h 20ema which had 3 great short opportunities today but bulls also had decent bounces off 6115.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Another mind boggling rally with a strong break above 22000. Volume is atrocious but that does not matter one bit as long as we continue up. Market has now broken above at least 2 bigger patterns on my charts and every time a market does that, I expect it to fail, rather than to be the start of a new and stronger trend. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20500 bull case : I got one more bullish target at 22400 but that’s it. We could reach it but I would be very cautious tomorrow and wait how much interest there is in buying above 22100 when the momentum fades. No more thoughts about this for now from a bullish perspective. It’s beyond overbought. Invalidation is below 21800. bear case: Many upper trend lines and breaks above them. Overbought conditions and low volume. All valid arguments but only price matters and that is going higher. 1h close below 21900 is needed for the bears. Before that I would not trust most selling attempts because it’s more likely they will become another bull flag and break to the upside again. I’d be very surprised if bears manage to get down to 21900 and close the gap. Invalidation is above 22200. short term: I’d rather look for shorts above 22100 than for more longs. Can go higher but it would do so without me. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 over the weekend. current swing trade : None trade of the day: Just balls to the walls long from us open or even Global for that matter. Unreal strength.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Same as for dax. Shallow two-legged pullback to the moving average is a perfect buy signal once we trade above 6087 again. I have targets at 6300 or higher and the chart is as clear as it gets. Only a daily close below 6000 would change the outlook. Quote from last week: comment: Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it. comment: Nothing has changed from last week. Market went nowhere and it has formed a perfect very shallow two-legged pullback to the ema. Above 6080 it’s a clear buy signal and I can see this going for 6300 into year end. No bearish thoughts, since bulls are in full control and best bears could do last week was a 70 point pullback. That is as weak as it gets. current market cycle: Bull trend - very late key levels: 6000 - 6300 bull case: Chart is still the same and structure did not change. Once we break above, long it for 6150+. Nothing more to say about this. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Dax outlook covers also sp500 and nasdaq. Bears are not doing anything and until they come around big time, only look for longs. Bears need a daily close below 6000 for me to reevaluate. Invalidation is above 6120. outlook last week: short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not. → Last Sunday we traded 6099 and now we are at 6055. Good outlook. short term: Neutral until we break above 6080 and then 6120. Above 6120, market has to find a top and that could be all the way up to 6300. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed the potential bearish two-legged correction. Only bullish targets remain for now.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-12-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Beautiful bear channel and you should trade it until it’s clearly broken. We are going down but it’s weak selling. Bears barely get lower prices, even on increased volume. Means that there is also much scaling into longs for probably another big leg up. current market cycle: Bull trend - very late and we are in the very last stage of it key levels : 21000 - 21700 bull case: Bulls are keeping the market two sided, since the channel is shallow. Market closed only 80 points lower than yesterday. As long as bulls have strong pull backs in between, they are fine and they can scale into longs and make money. Bears have to take profits at new lows in fear of another big pull back higher. That is why we are mostly moving sideways, despite making lower lows and highs. Invalidation is a daily close below 21000. bear case: Bears are trying on increased volume but they are not doing enough damage to the bulls, to make more cover or prevent them from buying new lows. Bears can’t sell 21400 because we can easily test back up to the top of the channel. If bears are strong, they will keep it below 20500 tomorrow but I highly doubt that. I do think the high 21606 will hold. Trade the channel. Invalidation is above 22000. short term: Bullish for 21500ish. Maybe 21530. I favor one or two more legs down before Friday’s close. As of now with the structure we have, I can only imagine that we will see another full melt up from next week into year end. Maybe 22000. If this closes 2024 below 21000, consider me surprised big time. medium-long term: Will update this over the weekend. 22000 is a possibility but a bit far for now. Daily close above 20500 would bring it in play. First target for Q1 2025 is 19000. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling near 21600 was perfect. Bears showed strength in that area and once we broke below 21540, market never looked back.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-12-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Don’t short new lows because this is not a strong bear trend. Wait for pullbacks. I’d be surprised if we hit 6100 tomorrow but I can’t rule it out. My next bear target is 6035 for tomorrow and there is a good chance we print 6000 or lower this week. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Strongest bull bars that late in the trend? Tough. I have two higher targets still. First is the bull trend line to around 6160 and second is a measured move target to 6300. Bears are doing nothing but it’s also unlikely that we just continue higher in this tight of a channel on the daily chart. Market is on it’s last legs up and these windfall profits will get taken off the table before they disappear. You don’t get bullish this late in a trend, you get cautious. current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon key levels: 6000 - 6170 bull case: Bulls did not much today to fight it. Profit taking was expected and I can’t see many bulls buying 6035 but rather waiting for 6000. Not much else to I can come up with here. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Bears want to test 6000 and the daily 20ema near the bull trend line. 3 Perfect reasons to expect 6000-6030 to be hit tomorrow/Wednesday. I do not expect market to just sell off but rather hurt many traders on both sides first, by chopping back and forth. Perfect for bears would be to stay below 6084. Invalidation is above 6120. short term: Not shorting the lows but looking for shorts on pullbacks. I want to see 6035 and 6000 or lower this week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Bar 13 - 23 was a good first leg and strong enough to expect some follow through. Bar 35 was a good signal bar and bar 38 should have been your entry bar, once it strongly broke below 6089.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Hard to be bullish after this leg up but the structure is clear. We have two big trend lines running up to 6300 and a measured move target. I’d love to see a deeper pullback to at least 5900 but as of now that’s a pipe dream for the bears. The price is truth and it just screams bullishness. Last pullback was 170 points and that would bring us to 5940, so close enough. Can we really go up to 6300? I don’t know but it would be naive to say that we could not. We made 6100 and that already is the most overvalued the market has ever been. So obviously we can go further up. If we print 5900 on Monday, I would not be surprised one tiny bit but that is just much more unlikely than 6300 at this point. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs. comment : Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it. current market cycle: Bull trend - very late key levels: 6000 - 6300 bull case: Bulls buy it all but it’s climactic. They still see multiple trend lines leading to even higher prices and as long as this keeps going, they keep buying. The first pullback will likely touch the daily 20ema soon and I do not expect it to just slice through it. Bulls buying any small pullback, made money for 3 weeks now, they won’t stop all of a sudden but at some point next week, they need to start taking profits to reduce risk. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Same as for dax. Until bears come around much stronger, everything in here is low probability. I would prefer a huge dip down to 5900 before we get another rally up to 6100 or even 6300. Next week will probably be the most important in December. Anything below 5900 would certainly put a huge limitation on targets above 6100. Invalidation is above 5900. outlook last week: short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear. → Last Sunday we traded 6051 and now we are at 6099. Good outlook. short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate. current swing trade: None chart update: Added a potential two-legged correction for next week but not later (my best guess as of now)
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Parabolic buy climax which will end soon. Longs after pullbacks are ok but I will only look for weakness. This is climactic and unsustainable. comment: Strongest bull bars that late in the trend? Tough. I have two higher targets still. First is the bull trend line to around 6160 and second is a measured move target to 6300. Bears are doing nothing but it’s also unlikely that we just continue higher in this tight of a channel on the daily chart. Market is on it’s last legs up and these windfall profits will get taken off the table before they disappear. You don’t get bullish this late in a trend, you get cautious. current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon key levels: 6000 - 6170 bull case: Bulls are in complete control but it’s overbought and climactic. the 4h 20ema has been bought for two weeks now and longs near it make sense. Buying above 6050 does not Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Market is overbought and we will likely test down to the 4h 20ema soon. We can’t expect it to just trade through it and we would likely see another bounce up. Bears have nothing until then. Wait for the clear sign that bigger profit taking has started and we do not make new ath every 15m. Slight chance 6102 was the high and we go down to 6000 tomorrow. Invalidation is above 6170. short term: Bullish until proven otherwise but will happen sooner than later. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Could have bought pretty much anywhere. Again.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Clear breakout on the daily chart. ATH wants a retest and for now there is no reason why market would stop there. My upmost target is 22400ish but for now bulls want to hit the 3 upper trend lines and see which one produces most resistance. Bears come back into the picture with a daily close below 20800. current market cycle: Bull trend but also nested bull wedges on the daily chart. Will end in the next 3-8 weeks key levels: 21000 - 21500 bull case: Bulls have 3 obvious targets above now. First ath retest 21340, then 2 more upper bull trend lines from wedges. 22000 is possible over the next 4 weeks but we are in the last stage of the bull trend. Invalidation is a daily close below 21000. bear case: Bears gave up above 21000 and will probably try again above 20300 or higher. For now they don’t have any arguments before bulls begin to stall due to profit taking. It’s too late for bigger longs and too early to short. Be patient. Invalidation is above 22000. short term: Bullish for 21340 and then probably some more. Buying pullback is most likely the easiest way here. medium-long term: Will update this over the weekend. 22000 is a possibility but a bit far for now. Daily close above 20500 would bring it in play. First target for Q1 2025 is 19000. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buy anywhere. Textbook breakout and market never looked back.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds