a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood evening and i hope you are well.
Markets went sideways today, as was expected and laid out yesterday. We are forming many triangles, which means that prices are converging and we get a break out soon. Bears tried a bit but bulls bought it, which confirms my thesis of higher prices. I still expect a bit more sideways movement. If i had to guess, i’d say we reach the tops before Opex and crater into or afterwards. But that’s guesswork and you should not trade on such things. Let’s look at me painting and how the sp500 did today.
Sell vacuum to support from the open down to 4937, which was 5 points above Friday’s open. Bulls bought it and bears stepped aside. We closed 11 points below the open. Daily 20ema + 15m 20ema is pretty flat and we are in multiple triangles. Odds just scream more sideways until breakout.
bull case: Yesterday i said a pullback is in order and we will probably trade sideways, that was pretty spot on. Now we wait for the bull breakout and a new ath or a couple. I have no doubt market will print them.
bear case: Still not much. Best they can hope for is a trading range and stop the advance but they are weak and when that changes, you will notice. It’s still BTFD.
short term: Sideways to up. Look for longs.
medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100
trade of the day: Short from the open after bar 37 and exit on a bull bar. Buy the 3 bar reversal (bar 39, 40, 41), latest bar to long 44
Emini
How to Prep: SPX Breakdown. BIG MoveSPX Breakdown:
My Philosophy is price is king and
KEEP IT SIMPLE.
Here it is.
Today My Plan for SPX intraday...
Es to Spx
4752.
Spx Bull case
Open above 4752 we can test 4762 with 4769 and 4774 (this is my preferred move at opening, then adjust).
SPX Bear case
Open below 4752 and stay below 4752 we can test 4742 with 4733 and 4728.
Hope you enjoy! Follow on TradingView for more trading tips.
Stay Frosty!
March E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Weekly Chart - 12/18/23March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures continued the rally that began at the beginning of November, taking out the recent high from the last week in July. MACD recently experienced a bullish cross by crossing above its signal line. That relationship is widening, which indicates a continuing bullish trend. RSI is getting closer to being overbought at 70, though bearish divergence might be in play as the RSI is lower than its peak in August, even though price has taken out the high in August. This could indicate that momentum is weakening, and a reversal might occur. If the bullish trend continues, resistance might be found at the April 2022 high of 4,860. A reverse to the downside could find support at the 61.8% Fib level (4,530) and at the 52-week moving average (~4,400).
Please Note:
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of analysis (12/15/23). Market conditions are subject to change and may not reflect all market activity.
Bulls and Bears zone for 12-07-2023Yesterday market sold off and closed at its Low. This morning it is trading at bottom half of yesterday's RTH session.
Any test of ETH session High could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch 4570 --- 4568
Report to watch:
US:EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Weekly Setup and 10 AM TRADEThis is a holiday abridged week. I expect market volume to taper off after Tuesday or so, with it coming alive following Monday. Thursday and Friday, the NYSE remains closed. Happy Thanksgiving!
My Weekly Scenarios
Scenario 1: I think if we are able to remain above 4510-4515 this week, there may be a tendency to test 4552 area. I do think there is a possibility of a range extension into 4586-4600 due to seasonality, mega caps etc.
ES Weekly Trade Plan
Inflection: 4508-4512
Upper Levels: 4545 / 4565 / 4606-4614 / 4634
Lower Levels: 4484 / 4467-4474 / 4423-4430 / 4400
ES Monday Trade Plan
Inflection: 4508-4512
Upper Levels: 4537 / 4545 / 4560-4566 / 4580
Lower Levels: 4500 / 4493 / 4474 / 4467
STAY FROSTY!
Bulls and Bears zone for 11-15-2023After a Huge rally yesterday, futures are trading around yesterday's High.
Any test of yesterday's HIGH could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 4522 --- 4524
Reports to watch:
US: Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
US:EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Bulls and Bears zone for 11-01-2023Market is trying to rally this morning after selling off during ETH session.
We could have a range bound session today.
Level to watch 4213 --- 4211
Reports to watch:
US:ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
US: Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
US:JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
US:EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
US:FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM ET
US: Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Bulls and Bears zone for 10-25-2023Markets ability to rally yesterday afternoon after a late morning sell off is encouraging.
Any test of ETH Low could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch 4262 --- 4260
Reports to watch:
US: New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
US:EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Powell's Speech to Provide Market Direction?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 10/19
This week marks the beginning of the peak of Q3 earnings season, and a potential inflection points in the geopolitical risks with signs of potential ground operations to begin by Israel in Gaza. Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation, extremely strong jobs market, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased this week again. Powell's speech today may not necessarily provide any clear market direction, yet it could lead to some knee jerk moves.
We have been publishing for the last two weeks: "Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated". Now, this 4310 is the main support level and a daily close below that is needed for our models to turn bearish. The market tested this level briefly yesterday, Wed. 10/18, but bounced right back up to close a few points above it. This level may come into play again today, and how the price action ends today with respect to this level could give us some indications of near-term market direction.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4377, 4352, 4322, 4306, or 4285 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4365, 4345, 4312, 4301, or 4280 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4370 or 4319, and explicit short exits on a break above 4370 or 4314. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:59am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical, #earnings, #powellspeech
Earnings Season Kicks OffS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 10/13
Today marks the kick off of the Q3 earnings season, and a potential inflection points in the geopolitical risks with signs of potential ground operations to begin by Israel in Gaza. Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation - reiterated by this morning's CPI numbers, extremely strong jobs market, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased this week again. Is this Fools rushing in where Angels fear to tread or retail investors having some crystal ball into the future that institutions don't have access to? Only time can tell.
However, our AI-driven models (since 2018 - not a "me too AI" bandwagon hopper) have negated the bearish bias yesterday, Tue. 10/10, based on the last two sessions' price action and in line with what we have been publishing for the last week or so: "Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated". Now, this 4310 is the main support level and a daily close below that is needed for our models to turn bearish.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4402, 4384, 4371, 4361, or 4312 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4398, 4357, 4348, 4332, or 4308 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4380, 4375, or 4367, and explicit short exits on a break above 4353 or 4336. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:11am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical, #earnings