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Eminisp500

$spx going to 11k over the next 3 to 4 yearsIm expecting the current bull to continue for another few years, with a deep correction in between now and the expected target of 11 k, by 2028/29... From there I expect SP:SPX to enter a sideways bear market such as the ones of 68/75 and 2000/2009 in order to form the 4th base of the secular run since 1929 (shown the comments). Bears always get it wrong, because of their self-delusions about the world and often also themselves! It's bulls who - due to their prescience and foresight - actually get to foresee tops in the market. Bears never catch a top, if they do it's either by coincidence, luck or something a four year old could have seen, like the covid top... anyway... we see so much madness in the ideas section, it's even fun!
SP:SPX
by LotusTrading20
S&P500 (ES) uptrend may still be intactRecent price action on S&P futures suggests a potential rollover happening now, particularly after today's sell-off. This downturn began after the index peaked at 5,333.5 on April 1, 2024. Despite this, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and forthcoming high-profile earnings reports, such as NVDA's in late May, add layers of uncertainty. Notably, NVDA has recently become a pivotal indicator not only for the AI and broader tech sectors but also for the general economy. Taking a longer-term perspective, the S&P futures have maintained an uptrend, connecting a support trendline from a previous low of 4,122 on October 27, 2023, to the April 19, 2024, pullback at 4,963. This suggests that the trend remains intact, possibly ready to rebound from the support line and continue its upward trajectory. In conclusion, while recent market behavior might suggest the beginning of a rollover, the increased market volatility means that stricter interpretation of technical indicators may not be as reliable until the noise subsides. Therefore, a broader perspective might be necessary to accurately assess trend behaviors. But it's important not to continuously adjust this perspective to justify an ongoing uptrend, especially considering the seasonal strategy of 'sell in May and go away,' which could still prove prudent in the coming weeks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by cch31
Trend Extend SPX short term futures bullThis algo and automatic drawing system can indicate that an oversold short term furtures index price can retrace to trend extend levels. the projection in the algo and short term futures or money network index risk may accumulate according to trend regularity 33, with automatic drawings suggesting a cross. a bear pullback could look like something as indicated on the chart, where the market overall USI:TICK SP:SPX $DXY/SPY is still a weekly sell.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by cerealmarket
Will NVDA Gap Hold for ES?E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5062.25, down 30.25 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,658.50, down 222.25 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower for the fourth session in a row. Most crucially, the S&P tested our rare major four-star support at 5044-5055, this pocket aligns multiple indicators as well as the gap close on February 21st, ahead of NVDA’s earnings release. Given the relentless move down, failed bounce attempts and this critical area of support, it is imperative the bulls show up today. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 5078-5082**, 5094-5097***, 5110*, 5119-5123.25***, 5127-5131.75***, 5147.25-5153.75***, 5162.75-5167.25***, 5182-5185.50**, 5207.75-5213*** Pivot: 5069.50-5075 Support: 5062.25***, 5044-5055****, 5026-5027.25**, 5018**, 4983.50-4994.25**** NQ (June) Resistance: 17,767-17,796***, 17,850-17,874**, 17,959-17,988***, 18,051-18,072****, 18,131-18,167***, 18,226-18,254***, 18,326-18,343*** Pivot: 17,719 Support: 17,604-17,638***, 17,463-17,493***, 17323-17,372***, 17,106*** Micro Bitcoin (April) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 61,130, down 1,790 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 63,350-63,700**, 64,660-64,937****, 66,555-67,595***, 68,172-68,590*, 70,410-70,800**, 71,795-71,815**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600*** Pivot: 62,535 Support: 61,632-61,680***, 59,700-60,830***, 57,410-58.250*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
SNP likely flipping lower...looking for shorts on h1 etc...Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Flipping on the index to the downside, correlating with the strengthening in USD?Let's see... Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
FX:SPX500Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
March E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Weekly Chart - 12/18/23March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures continued the rally that began at the beginning of November, taking out the recent high from the last week in July. MACD recently experienced a bullish cross by crossing above its signal line. That relationship is widening, which indicates a continuing bullish trend. RSI is getting closer to being overbought at 70, though bearish divergence might be in play as the RSI is lower than its peak in August, even though price has taken out the high in August. This could indicate that momentum is weakening, and a reversal might occur. If the bullish trend continues, resistance might be found at the April 2022 high of 4,860. A reverse to the downside could find support at the 61.8% Fib level (4,530) and at the 52-week moving average (~4,400). Please Note: Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of analysis (12/15/23). Market conditions are subject to change and may not reflect all market activity.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Tradovate
Jingle Bulls: Analyzing the E-mini S&P 500's Year-End RallyIntroduction The Santa Claus rally, a well-documented phenomenon in the financial markets, particularly in the context of the E-mini S&P 500, presents a captivating study of market behavior during the holiday season. This rally, often characterized by an uptrend in the stock market, offers a confluence of joy and opportunity for traders and investors alike. Our extensive analysis will delve deep into the intricacies of this phenomenon, unraveling its significance in the broader market context. Current Market Overview Over the past two decades, the E-mini S&P 500 has often mirrored the festive spirit with its performance during the Santa Claus rally. A close examination of the rally's seasonality since 2006 paints a picture of resilience and optimism, with only a handful of years bucking the trend. This pattern sets a compelling backdrop for our current year's analysis. Technical Analysis of the Santa Claus Rally The preliminary signs of the Santa Claus rally begin to surface as autumn wanes. The technical indicators in November, particularly the moving averages, RSI, and MACD, provide a glimpse into the market's preparatory phase for the rally. This early analysis is critical in setting expectations and understanding the underlying market sentiment. December's arrival marks the acceleration of the rally. The daily timeframe charts during this month are a testament to the burgeoning bullish sentiment, with technical indicators aligning to confirm the trend's strength. A broader perspective is gained through a weekly timeframe analysis, which smoothens out the daily volatilities and provides clarity on the rally's sustained nature. The monthly timeframe charts link the current rally to the historical market cycles, offering a comprehensive view of the rally's significance in the long-term market trends. Historical Context and Comparative Analysis The Santa Claus rally, particularly in the E-mini S&P 500, is not a recent phenomenon. Historical data dating back over the past two decades reveals a pattern of consistent end-of-year rallies. Analyzing these instances, we find that in 14 out of the last 18 years, the E-mini S&P 500 experienced a significant uptick during this period. Notably, the failed rallies often coincided with broader market stressors or significant global events, offering insights into the rally's sensitivity to external influences. This comparative analysis underscores the rally's reliability but also highlights its exceptions, reminding traders that historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes. Economic Indicators and External Factors The Santa Claus rally in the E-mini S&P 500 doesn't occur in isolation. It is influenced by a myriad of economic indicators and external factors. Key among these is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which can significantly sway market sentiment. Inflation rates, employment data, and GDP growth figures also play a crucial role in shaping the market's direction during this period. On a global scale, geopolitical tensions and international trade relations can impact investor confidence, thereby affecting the rally. This interplay of factors necessitates a vigilant approach to market analysis, recognizing that the Santa Claus rally is as much about economic fundamentals as it is about seasonal trends. Market Sentiment and Trader Behavior The psychology driving the Santa Claus rally is a fascinating aspect of this phenomenon. During this period, a general sense of optimism pervades the market, often leading to increased buying activity. For many traders, this rally represents a culmination of the year's trends and a final push for year-end profits. However, this optimism needs to be tempered with caution. The rally can sometimes lead to overexuberance, resulting in inflated asset prices and increased volatility. Traders should be aware of the potential for a market correction following the rally and should approach trading during this period with a balanced mindset, combining optimism with risk awareness. Trading Strategies and Risk Management Navigating the Santa Claus rally requires tailored trading strategies and effective risk management. Traders might consider positioning themselves to capitalize on the expected uptrend, but with safeguards against unexpected market shifts. Utilizing stop-loss orders and setting clear profit targets can help in managing risks. Diversification across asset classes may also provide a buffer against potential volatility within the E-mini S&P 500. Additionally, traders should stay attuned to market indicators and news, as these can provide early signals of changes in the rally's trajectory. Ultimately, a disciplined approach, balancing the eagerness to exploit the rally with prudent risk management, is key to navigating this period successfully. Conclusion The Santa Claus rally, particularly in the E-mini S&P 500, offers a microcosmic view of the broader market dynamics at play during the year's end. This phenomenon, while rooted in historical patterns and influenced by a blend of economic indicators and market sentiment, requires a nuanced understanding and a strategic approach. As we close the chapter on another year's rally, traders are reminded of the constant interplay between market optimism and the reality of economic fundamentals. The insights gleaned from this analysis not only shed light on the rally itself but also serve as a guiding framework for navigating future market movements with agility and foresight. CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traddictiv
E-mini S&P - Weekly Timeframe Analysis Price had a relatively convincing reversal back to the upside. In my opinion the highest yielding position would be a long from the weekly Bisi annotated on the chart. A short could be identified from the weekly Sibi, but I would be wary that the Sibi could be used as a point of support of there are Discount PD Arrays on lower timeframes within. A possible target would be the relative equal highs residing near the top of the highest weekly swing.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Road_2_Funded
Powell's Speech to Provide Market Direction?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 10/19 This week marks the beginning of the peak of Q3 earnings season, and a potential inflection points in the geopolitical risks with signs of potential ground operations to begin by Israel in Gaza. Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation, extremely strong jobs market, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased this week again. Powell's speech today may not necessarily provide any clear market direction, yet it could lead to some knee jerk moves. We have been publishing for the last two weeks: "Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated". Now, this 4310 is the main support level and a daily close below that is needed for our models to turn bearish. The market tested this level briefly yesterday, Wed. 10/18, but bounced right back up to close a few points above it. This level may come into play again today, and how the price action ends today with respect to this level could give us some indications of near-term market direction. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4377, 4352, 4322, 4306, or 4285 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4365, 4345, 4312, 4301, or 4280 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4370 or 4319, and explicit short exits on a break above 4370 or 4314. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:59am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical, #earnings, #powellspeech
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom