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Emotions

Gnus trend reversal - Learn to not be a bag holderTrend reversal and volume increase with significant golden cross on hourly. You guys saw what happened last time I noticed these things on this ticker. It went from $1.30 to $11. Now I am not saying that will happen again but the chart and my research on the company is very solid. I will not do the research for you but I invite you to read through ALL of the company's press releases and shareholder letters. Even the very old ones. I also invite you to go look at my previous TA's on GNUS which I have attached to the "related ideas" bar. I believe there is quite a bit of upside here but it will be volatile so do not chase. If you decide to enter do so on a pullback. (Rant below is mainly for new traders or traders who are struggling to understand how this stuff works but I am sure even experienced and profitable traders can gain something from it.) This is the most underestimated stock in the market right now. If you followed my first TA when it was $1.31 in may before the big run up, hopefully you took profit anywhere from $2 to $11. You must always take profit even if it means just selling a portion of your position, this is not a game. You must learn to manage and lower your risk. That being said gnus is far from done imo. Too much fear brought the price way down and the MM's love it because they got to reload for dirt cheap after dumping all of their shares on chasers. I sold at $3, $5 and $7 on the first run up which where my targets when I did the TA. ( It is still up and is called "GNUS breaks 4 year bearish trend with violent move on volume") if you want to check it out. Now I did not catch the top but I made a hell of a profit regardless (best swing tade of the year for me). What would have happened if I just held? I would have lost ALL of my profit. This is why you MUST always take profit. Now I am loaded back up with only a portion of the profit I made on the initial run with an avg of 1.07. I already sold a third of my new position at $1.40 to lower risk and I will sell another portion of my position if it strikes $2 and re-evaluate from there. You need to buy when the MM's are buying which they have been massively the past month according to dark pool and LVL2 data. Then you need to sell BEFORE the MM's unload. At least scale out of the trade even if you whole heartedly believe it will continue. If it doubles, do not be afraid to sell half and secure your initial investment. If it triples in a short period of time then sell all and wait to re enter later. Most of the time MUCH later. (months) Even if you get a 2% to 10% move on a stock you should consider selling and moving to the next play unless you have researched the company diligently and want to turn it into a long swing trade or investment. PROFIT IS PROFIT!!! Moves like the one you saw with gnus almost ALWAYS pull back massively. You can be a profitable trader. It is not as hard as most people make it seem. Learn to be disciplined and learn to STOP trading and investing with emotion. REPLACE THE EMOTION WITH LOGIC. REPLACE THE IMPATINCE WITH PAITENCE. MAKING THE RIGHT ENTRY IS CRUCIAL. BUY THE FEAR. SELL THE HYPE. RESEARCH DIGELENTLY. MOST IMPORTANTLY STOP CHASING!!! Do these things and watch your account turn around. I am tired of seeing good people lose money over stupid mistakes. You must learn to control your emotion and never let them control you. /rant THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE I AM NOT A FINACIAL ADVISOR THIS IS NOT A RECOMENDATION TO BUY THIS STOCK
GLong
by UnknownUnicorn6673904
Surf the waves of investor emotionsThere all all these stages, 14 in total, but this is too detailled. Good to know and try to guess but no one is going to get them right. It is better and more accurate to see the market in 4 cycles, or 6 if we separate the top & bottom. Market participants go through those emotions every time, with stocks, gold, crypto. Speculation in currencies and commodities actually serves a purpose, I would not describe market movements the same way (except precious metals). Let me describe every emotion, starting with a trending bull market: 1- Optimism: The market is clearly in a bull market. Investors think the market is likely to continue higher. Excitement: As more investors notice the uptrend, it keeps going up, probably faster. Investors get positive confirmation bias & expect more gains. Thrill: Every one is a pro and they start making big calls, stop acting reserved/respectfully. Bulls start to celebrate. Bears are disgusted. 2- Euphoria: Day traders & Mainstreet are fully invested. Forums & investing sites get record new accounts. Everyone is a genius calling for the moon. 3- Denial: "It's ok we need to cool off". Investors start calling themselves long term investors that do not care about noise. Anxiety: Bagholders, which is the right description by now, start to really worry. The price is not going higher, the "pullback" lasted long. Fear: The price starts to go down, losses accelerate. Bears start saying "told you so" and bagholders get triggered very easilly. 4- Desperation: "Pff I hope you're happy". Baggies finally start to call it a bear market. Bulls see no light at the end of the tunnel. Panic: Bulls that saw light at the end of the tunnel realize it was a freight train. Losses start getting felt. Fund clients harass PMS. Capitulation: Gordon Brown, head of Her Majesty's Treasury, "rebalances" and sells the bottom. Bulls cannot take it anymore. 5- Depression: hopelessness - despair - nooses. Bears are empowered, forgetting they are permabears. A few will feel regret and buy at euphoria. 6- Skepticism: Investors gave up trying to time the market. They got slapped many times and are now cautious. Bad time for any short term strategies. Hope: They allow themselves to think the worse might be over, and day dream about new highs, but still very reluctant to buy (10/10 logic). Relief: Many investors are back in the green, or around breakeven, and the "scary prices" are now far behind. The pain is over they can breathe. A few practical examples People are calling the top on tech stocks and calling it euphoria. It is BIG euphoria, not small 1/14 euphoria yet, prob. Once we go higher, when the REAL crash begins, gamblers will go "last time they said", "I held the dip in the second half of 2020 every one was calling the crash", and so on. The clowns such as "captain of the ship" Dave Portnoy will get all these confirmation bias, he will probably end up rekt in the end. At this point the stock market has become a ponzi scheme. Grandma and 20 year olds will hear that some random idiot with no experience got rich, so hey they can do it too, and every ignorant beginner will join and be euphoric for a few weeks, then depressed for a few months. Late buyers will think Portnoy is an "OG" and the new Warren Buffet, I will point out his flaws and laugh at the "master the legend", I will be mocked and his fanboys will flame me, call me jealous, "why attack him? I made lots of money thanks to him". And then I will be proven right as always, and the "OGS" will vanish away. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. I'll try some small buys on the way up, short sell at 20k and skrekt every one as usual. Not sure with these annoying US tax rules. Some other ones than stocks. Already have one for BTC so no point making it again You sort of always find more or less the same thing. In Forex this does not happen the same, I have my own dynamic ever changing way to divide market cycles, does not always work, nice when it does. Gold is a bit of both world. Depends the TF. Bouncing from a level to another This is how I see it for forex, 80% of the time just stay away but who cares, there are plenty of pairs and you can also watch a secondary asset class (commodities are the most similar thing). And 20% of the time be picky, go for the good stuff. Not that complicated. Seems silly to be zooming in intensly. Days to weeks holding periods is considered short term. I do short to very short term already, but compared to the average retail trader I'm like a dinosaur that holds forever. It is just ridiculous. There is no supply and demand laws it's all noise. What do they think they are? Manual quants? Don't most quants trade stocks? Aren't most professional fx "day traders" just bankers with insider info that cheat and scam retail of their savings? Legally... I crack up imagine the average week end gambler with his chart full of ridiculous indicators on a 5 minutes time frame with huge spreads in some choppy random market try so hard to find something why oh why? The goal clearly is not money. So what is it? A challenge? Sure might find something. And I might get a stronger arm if I keep hitting my nuts with a hammer. "Well if it works for you". The goal is actually money. Ridiculous. That there are so many jokers that think they will make MORE money, not LESS. Like they'll make 1% a day gambling on noise. I find the idea of day trading absolutely repulsive: waking up at 7, drinking his little coffee, looking at his little charts, taking some gamble at a huge cost, then getting out pumpus interuptus closing everything at 4 pm or something while the market is still active and just going to watch tv and proud of his day patting himself on the back totally oblivious of how stupid he looks, a sheep that got brainwashed by brokers. Beurk. Day traders equivalent to lifting are crossfitters with their little tight green and yellow outfits, elastic bands around the head and arms and legs, little crossfit water bottle, and little 2 kg pink or green or blue dumbbells, training their injuries, lifting their little weights, making sure they stop before failure wouldn't want to hurt yourself princess. I want to throw up. Day traders are to Forex what Slipknot is to technical death metal fans. Lmao just hunting for some silly pattern they read somewhere and of course didn't bother to backtest because nah that would be too much hard work. Calling themselves speculators because they have several screens 🤢 And you can't even mock them because by the time you say "haha told you" they already blew up and quit. This isn't stupid? A big watchlist = ignore 80% of the lesser PA. Pick only the juiciest berries. There isn't much to it. Looking at the random noise is the best way to get lost. It's like chess. Simple rules. But then it takes alot to be a master. Ye that's how I see currencies. I divide it in 3: - "Skepticism": 85% of the time. Not good enough for me. Not just trend following, even other strategies. Especially counter trend. - Optimism: 14% of the time. Trend following but also anything else. When most pros are watching. Will buy falling knives, not sideways knives. - Weeee: 1% of the time. Quick. Less than 24 hours.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
5
ADA is .08$ ETH is 225$ Hoskinson, ETH co-founder, created ADA.ADA has the makings of a Bull run this summer/fall. This pullback is creating a solid foundation for a spring forward. I see a lot of what I've Liked in other coins in ADA. But most coins lose their stamina around this time. They get a good pump and then they become part of the system with an ATH & ATL. Their still solid money makers but I like a little volatility in my life sometimes. What I don't see in those coins anymore is a solid CEO behind them. You invest in a coin and read about its creator and find out its someone who doesn't really care about it. Where the coins go and how it'll better the world should be major guidelines for a coin's roadmap. But some creators or CEOs just use it for personal fame/gain. Coins, I think, are becoming more like Stocks in that people are treating them as if they'll be around longer. People are investing in coins and are interesting in seeing where and how crypto ends up. That all being said. Charles Hoskinson seems like he wants Cardano to succeed and to pave a new way for crypto. He worked to create ETH and left to create Cardano. He has plenty of updates on the coin and tries to be very transparent in his objectives. Unlike, some CEO/ creators he also claims his coin in pride. It's not something he has created and let loss on the world. And it is not something he relies on other developers to develop. Follow his twitter you'll see what I mean. EMotion aside. I could see ADA arching down for the winter toward .05$ but big whales know ADA will be worth more soon and won't let it go down without a fight. COINBASE said it might add ADA sometime. This could be the Huge drop to .05$. As a Coinbase listing may have that effect. But over time the listing will prove to be a benefit. I'm holding my position.09 because I am leaning towards ADA springboarding up in July with some good news from Charles Hoskinson.
BITTREX:ADAUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn5174798
1
Speculating & Investing: It is not for young people!All the middle age dudes that were worried that they don't have the fresh quick mind of younger players can rest assured, they are not disadvantaged, it is the other way around. Everyone has heard 1000 times that what made a trader/investor was being wise, or another way to say it is rational, or not emotional. It's not having quick reflexes or being young or even having 200 IQ. Note I said speculating not trading, market making arbitrage or executing someone else's orders doesn't count. Warren Buffet starter & Jesse Lauriston Livermore started at 15 yo or younger but they are exceptions. And Warren didn't make big returns before his mid twenties, Jesse Livermore started making real money in his twenties too i htink with his first big win in 1901 at 24 yo, he turned $10,000 into $500,000 after buying Northern Pacific Railway. It may be a stereotype that young people are dumb and reckless I don't know, and every one (except the teens themselves) has noticed that: - Wall Street Bets clowns buying options on leverage "it's within my personal risk tolerance" - 21% of college students with loans in the USA have used those loans to buy a cryptocurrency - Robinhood, Tesla, Bitcoin are extremely popular with 18-21 yo's - "Ok boomer" etc, they think absolute legends are just "too old to understand" their investment decisions - A large number of young have delusional beliefs "we can just tax the rich and start a communist utopia" - Licking toilet seats, licking groceries and putting them back for "fame" (these are of course the most extreme cases) - GUH! Learning to invest or gamble takes time, teenagers are better off continuing their lives, and if this interests them they can learn as a hobby in the background. Who loses everything? It's always young people that go nuts right? Maybe it's a rite of passage and they are all condemned to lose everything. So anyway, if you thought some people were "too young" to participate in the stock market or currency exchange etc, you are right. And if you thought old people were too old, and the best were all super young and super quick, you were wrong. Soros started in his 30s btw... Now, for the proof. Here is what the science says: www.nimh.nih.gov www.urmc.rochester.edu So all the 30+ boomers that thought it was too late, emm no actually it's not too late, 30 yo is scientifically the perfect and earliest time to get started ;) And maybe I didn't throw my life away by starting too late after all yay :) And next time a "legend master of charts" tries giving you a lesson, it might be the moment to throw this to them. They're so ridiculously embarassing and delusional thought, probably won't work. There is 1 exception: Our governments & lawmakers. They never seem to really develop that rational part much. When you are in this business for several years you can tell that the prefrontal cortex is the most important asset to success. Before IQ, before intuition, before how much money you start with. By very far. I hope you found this as interesting as I did. With lockdown & markets sideways 90% of the time, I think I will make more ideas about history like my last one, the winning mindset, how to develop a strategy and so on.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
5
Lessons about ultimate ignorance, survivor bias, exp. growthHello, I wanted to write about these 3 subjects, I have alot on my mind but I'll try keeping it compact and clean. 1- Ultimate Ignorance * People are persuaded the stock market will always go up. Why? They expect to all become rich with absolutely no effort like magical money will just appear in their pockets. Even a woldwide index isn't completely safe, global markets have dropped and stagnated for more than 100 years in the past and stock markets are only 500 years old. Concerning individual countries there has never been one that lasted forever... So it's pretty irrational as Einstein would say to expect a different outcome this time. And money doesn't just magically grow on trees forever what are those people thinking... They are going to learn a harsh lesson. * Certain people are completely stupid and out of this world. I have no word. The type of person crying because Bernie is not the dem frontrunner. One of those said, and it seemed it wasn't a troll, that "rich" bloomberg was so rich he could give every single american citizen $1 million which would change the life of most americans. And when people tried explaining how stupid that claim was, that person defended it "bla bla bla the point is he could give 1 million to every one and he wouldn't notice". The kind of people that watch clown news network every day and believe what they say. Even in congress alot fail basic maths taught to 6 yos. And of course they think infinite money can be printed and make every one rich. And if need money for free stuff always simple solution "just tax the rich". All of their idiotic ideas are traumatising. And on top of that it has been tried and failed. I lost all hope for the human race... Might be living in noisy stressful big towns making people lose their minds. We need to end wageslavery and have an exodus back to rural areas asap, but this is an idea for another post. * 2 years ago Paul Singer (the Argentina Vulture Capitalist managing a few dozen billions in a fund) had this to say about Bitcoin in a letter sent to investors, unlike Warren Buffet he does not try to look nice and friendly not hurt anyone feelings and just says it how it is: “This is not just a bubble. It is not just a fraud. It is perhaps the outer limit, the ultimate expression, of the ability of humans to seize upon ether and hope to ride it to the stars... But is it not glorious that when the equivalent of nothing attracts priests and parishioners who run up the price, the very willingness of the mob to buy it at higher and higher prices is seen as validation of the thing, rather than an indication of the limitless ignorance of swaths of the human race?” I completely agree. And like this person, I just say it how it is no point sugar coating it, Warren does it and crypto victims are still hating the guy so what is the point? He admitted there was genius in Bitcoin, when he called it a "Brilliant scam". I completely agree. Crypto HAS to be the ultimate never seen before super scam, the biggest ponzi in history. They can't ever have been any scam this big. Social security and debt are different so I'd count them separately. Bitcoin is one of the biggest mass delusion the dumbest the peak of human ignorance. "The outer limit" yes, this must be it, how can it possibly get dumber? 2- Survivor bias How ignorant are you? Here is a little test, got this from a recent video on youtube about prediction: This is an image extracted from the damaged planes the air force has in their hangar (I think it was the RAF but it doesn't matter): Command wants to armor the plane. Where should they place the armor? (can't full armor the plane makes it heavy and costs money & a nation cannot print or tax itself into wealth) The red areas represent where the planes took bullets on average. Well what does this tell us? It tells us that the planes in the hangars have this composite. In other words, the planes that made it home. I know alot of people ("just tax the rich make everything free") that would instantly say "armor the red area" but it is so wrong. This is why natural selection favors the smartest, and why wars are won by smarter faster thinking commands (cough cough france germany ww2). The reason why their planes had very little impacts in the mid fuselage engines and cockpit is really obvious... Those ones did not make it home. So all they get back are the survivors... That didn't get hit in the priority areas. Understanding survivor bias is important. In this video it was a class lesson and about half the students gave the wrong answer. Of the other half I am willing to bet they were mostly just afraid to look stupid or sleeping. 3- Exponential Growth The graph is a classic. Some examples: - Bacteria Colonies: the stagnate when food rarefies then just die of hunger/eat each other - Virusses (Corona...) - Internet Virusses - Ponzi Schemes (you know one...) - Product Life Cycle (the radio was introduced - Lag Phase, grew till every one had one, stagnated at 90% adoption or so, and has been dying with tv the internet smartphones) - Bubbles ("back to normal" is stagnation) - And more What is great about maths is how you learn that everything is correlated and works the same. And add finance which also does that, your brain goes boom. By the way, in Asia the coronavirus so many nuts are so afraid of, is in the decline phase. In Europe and NA I think we are at stagnation phase but there has been a spike in case, probably from all the people testing for it. What a joke. Idiocy to the limit "outer limit". Peak ignorance. People are fighting for toilet paper. I don't even understand. Some numbers. Worldwide cases of CoronaHoax: 150,000. Probably a bit more with the infected people that don't even notice it LOL! H1N1 2009 (swine flu) cases: 700,000,000 to 1,500,000,000. Half a million deaths. There was like easilly 1 billion cases of H1N1. It is still good that government try to limit the spread of the virus, to protect their elders. But all these ignoramus panicking, and whining Trump didn't do enough (Obama did nothing for 1 billion infected H1N1...). Oh and by the way an analysis was done on 1 billion infected H1N1... It was a smaller deal than the common flu THAT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR. The pathetic little common cold known as Covid-19 (it is a common cold) is on the decline already :) Mass hysteria over this... so this is it... Clown world. The exponential spread of idiocy is at max now right? Ah right we keep helping them out rather than let natural selection do its job so the decline won't ever happen. "You have to be a contrarian to make money". Yup. When the herd panics "CO2" (makes so much sense) "CoronaPoop" (sad) or gets all excited "Bitcoin moon soon" (reptilian brains) you know it is time to consider thinking the opposite. Interesting how everyone that makes money consistantly, all the big time billionaire financeers, all think the same. 90% are going to have this mob mentality to varying degrees. SHEEP. Illogical irrational ignorant sheep. Understand how the reptilian herd behaves, profit from it, rince and repeat. No one ever made money being a sheep (ok there were a few but they got lucky). Always stay rational. This gets repeated so often via "do not be emotional", but those that repeat this number 1 tip do not always understand it and think it means you should avoid going completely berserk (clearly they don't trade and just repeat something they read), it means BE RATIONAL (as opposed to emotional). And this is the 1 exception, the 1 free meal. In this case there is a very simple way (well maybe not for everyone, but simple on paper) to make alot of money. By simply being rational you already beat 90% of the competition. It is magical.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
9
EURJPY psychology can we accept that 1% loss ? so this breakdown shows 2 outcomes and what is possible in both situation and your trading psychology behind both sets up ? can you accept this 1% loss knowing that this trade shows and lines up with the higher time frames ? and seeing how we got there with some strong momentum would this put you of this trade ? biggest issue behind trading falls from your emotions we wouldn't take this trade if we haven't risk correctly or we haven't respected what the markets give us or we revenge trade after taking loss after loss accept any outcome and train your mind to cut your looses and ride your winners happy trading :)
Education
by LucasMatthew
The Market Cycle of EmotionsWhen things are great, we feel that nothing can stop us. And when things go bad, we look to take drastic action. Because emotions can be such a threat to an investor's financial health, it is important to be aware of them. This awareness can then protect you from the negative consequences of impulsive and irrational reactions to these emotions. 1: Optimism, thrill and euphoria Investors all start with optimism. We commonly expect things to go our way, or we tend to expect a return for the risk of investing. As expectations are met, it is common to get excited about the possibility of even greater returns and the excitement becomes thrilling as the returns exceed expectations. At the top of the cycle is when investors experience euphoria. But it is here where investors are at the point of maximum financial risk. When we believe everything we touch turns to gold, we fool ourselves into believing we can beat the market, we cannot make mistakes, that excessive returns are commonplace and that we can tolerate higher levels of risk. 2: Complacency, denial, hope The second phase of the cycle occurs when the market stops meeting our new lofty expectations and begins to turn. At first, we anxiously watch the market for any signs of direction. Anxiety turns to denial and then quickly to fear, as the value of the investments decline. Many people will then start to act defensively and may think about switching out of riskier assets to more defensive shares or other asset classes such as bonds. 3: Panic, capitulation, despondency In the third phase of the cycle, the realities of a bear market come to the fore and an investor may become desperate. Many panic and withdraw from the market altogether – afraid of further losses. Those who persevere become despondent and wonder whether the markets are ever going to recover and whether they should be there at all. Ironically, at these times, an investor will commonly fail to recognize they are actually at the point of maximum financial opportunity. 4: Skepticism, caution, worry In the fourth stage of the cycle, investors may experience some skepticism when markets start to rise. They often have a sense of caution or worry, wondering if market growth will last.—and may be reluctant to invest money in the market at a point when prices are still relatively low and opportunities are attractive. What are the consequences of this emotional roller-coaster? Emotions turn rational investors into irrational investors. So it is important to remember that markets move and investments will always go in and out of favour. Developed, diversified long-term financial plans are placed in jeopardy when investors are confronted by extraordinary events because we are guided by our emotions. This is where the role of the financial advisor is of utmost importance – your advisor can help you separate your emotions from reality and endeavour to steer you on the path of rational investing. You can also help to avoid the emotional roller coaster by being aware of the emotions you are likely to experience. The five most common behavioural pitfalls are: Overconfidence – when investors over-rate their ability to select winning shares or investment managers. Loss aversion – research indicates a loss causes about twice as much pain as a gain causes pleasure. During periods of market volatility investors experience the sense of loss more acutely. Chasing past performance – we see this time and time again, but unfortunately, individual investors who abandon a well-diversified portfolio for bonds, or even cash, may be jeopardizing their future financial security. Timing the market – It is difficult to correctly predict the market's movements. Failure to rebalance – the risk/return characteristics of an investor's portfolio should be independent of what's happening in the market and this means selling high and buying low.* The temptation to fall into one of these traps can be resisted by developing and committing to a well defined, long-term investment plan. This may be the best way to protect yourself from your emotions. Diversification does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets. People do not change over time. Information and actions of the consonant received information people do the same actions. Also I recommend reading these charts
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
71
#btcusd - Questions, Questions, QuestionsWonderful Sunday morning Traders! Hand on heart, you are sitting here watching all those nice charts and forecasts and assumptions and predictions? And the ONLY thing that comes out of it is a chart like this? Congratulations, you belong to the big majority of those who are interested in technical analytics but completely overwhelmed by the amount of controversial opinions. The big issue with this is, it is as simple as the actual price action itself. Over the years I have learned, that trying to forecast a price development is numbing and paralyzing you and keeping you back from actions, when they are needed. Who on earth wants to answer all those question marks? I can´t, you can´t, no one can! Trying to catch bottoms / tops, hodling or forecasting by following assumptions that can´t be made have cost a lot of you, a ton of money and made others filthy rich. Start taking this serious, start taking trading as what it is, a day by day fast-paced business where decisions from yesterday are worthless tomorrow. Stop being paralyzed. Cryptocurrency market is FAR too young to make any sort of long-term spot-on predictions. It´s 50-50 guys, live with it and start USING this fact to your advantage. Some people laugh at those like me who more or less never say, it´s going up or down. I am saying it will go up or down, of course it will, at least I am able to make a plan for both directions and won´t sit there in the end crying over my wrong assumption and lick the wounds of my broken self-confidence. Be as choppy as the price and you will succeed. ------------------------------- Warm regards, Nerubica My open group: t.me/nerugroup Alerts: NeruSuite Alerts XBT: t.me/nerusuite_alerts Divergence Alerts BTC: t.me/nerudivs Cryptopedia & Cheatsheet Bot: (under construction) @NerubicaBot in Telegram Web: www.nerusuite.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Gl4diator
1
How to play the breakouts!?!Lately, there has been a lot of buzz about BTC! Will it breakout or not? In the end, it did not as we predicted with the accuracy of a surgent in our most viewed post till now that you can find in RELATED IDEAS. Here is a nice school example of how ETH does the breakouts and probably similar pattern will be played in the near future. We will write more about that in the next posts but for now, let's focus on the lessons. A double top has been a pattern that ETH forms quiet often. Probably cause of false hopes when people just wait for ETH to do the same run as BTC and then hope gets denied or to say it better - run postponed! It happened before (2017), it happened in the near past (2019) and it will probably happen in the near future. In order to get the best return in time (RIT) and not only the best return on investment (ROI), it's important to know when to expect the moon so a trader can optimize his or her positions. Actually, trading is not about buying at the cheapest price, but buying (or selling) close to the time when the price will move the most. So when is that? In this example, it's clear that after breakout retest! People usually FOMO when the breakout happens but history shows that in most cases it will be retested. However, at the point of best entry (RIT), some start to get scared that the breakout was not successful. Some might even sell in panic (FUD - Fear, uncertainty, and doubt). This post is made in order to remember what to do and how to work with your emotions (fear, anger,...) when we are close to breakouts. Buy the retest! Patience is always the key. Keep calm, use the knowledge and you should be fine. Take care and GL! PS: You can see Elliot Waves count in this example also, but let's leave that for some other occasion. For now, it is just important to know that in this example wave 4 needs to be higher than wave 1.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDEducation
by Samoto
2
Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF) There are generally only 2-5 strong trend days a month. The majority of trading days are some form of trading range days, either within a range or a weak channel which reverses and forms a trading range. On strong trend days the market offers what most traders want - a high probability of a large reward, with a tolerable risk. Usually the risk feels greater (and often is) on a strong trend day because there is a sense of urgency, and the bars are often bigger than normal. On trading range days the bars tend to be smaller, offering what appears to be a lower reward, but there are many more failures and reversals. This makes it very difficult to identify a good setup, and even when there is one the market does not make it very far before there is an opposite reversal. This lures unsuspecting traders in, who continue fighting the market taking every trade or only the losers. This type of market is like a boa constrictor. The more you fight, the more you struggle, the tighter its grip and the harder it is to overcome the draw downs and emotional fatigue. Because these types of days are hard to trade and do not offer what I want (a good chance at a large reward), I choose to sit these days out. Instead, I wait for a strong trend day, and then continue to wait some more for a pullback and my edge. Does this mean I miss out on some good moves? Sure. But I do not care. I trade to win, not to trade for fun. It does not matter what I miss, it only matters what I take and the actions I make in the market. So how does a trader know if the day is a trading range day or likely to become a strong trend day and should be traded? In order to help guide you, here are some common characteristics of a trend day. "......" After the above has been identified - it is still better to wait for a pullback and an edge like a "......." This increases the likelihood of a good trade with a strong traders equation. It also helps decrease stress of prices going against the position as it often does when you just enter at the market or without an edge. Of course, waiting is not easy. Just like Tom Petty said "Waiting is the hardest part!" Does this mean you are less likely to lose? Usually, but not always. Even with trend trades fail, although less often. It is absolutely possible to lose money selling in a bear trend or vice versa. The key is to continue onward, and enter the next with trend trade if there is one. If not, or it also fails, prices are more than likely in a trading range and you just haven't yet realized it. If this is the case, it is often better to stop trading and wait for a strong trend day, rather than continuing to fight the market when it is not offering what you expected. **These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and long term investing. "..." = withheld material from original post (members only material). If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
by tradersmentality
$20 Dollar challenge! As of next week I plan to open a new account with only $20.Yes, I know what you’re thinking but this is why it’s called a challenge. My goal with this challenge is to see if you can actually make money with very little capital. I will only be trading currencies with 1:1000 ratio account. Now, how long could this last before going to zero? Will emotions take over my trading? Will having too much leverage be a disadvantage? Well we will have to see.Every week I will post updates on the trades I took followed by my lot size, my entry, and my exit.If you would like to follow this journey click the follow button,and on the day my account goes to zero you can unfollow. Quote:“The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.” – Ed Seykota Trader essential from Amazon 1. amzn.to -Tylenol Extra Strength Rapid Release (LOL) 2. amzn.to -Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3. amzn.to -Apple MacBook Pro 4. amzn.to -OLLY Goodbye Stress Gummy, 5. amzn.to - Lenovo Ideacentre AIO 520S 23-Inch Desktop Computer (Intel Core i5-7200U, 16GB DDR4, 1TB HDD, Intel HD Graphics 620, Windows 10), F0CU0001US 6. amzn.to Apple iMac (21.5" Retina 4K display, 3.0GHz quad-core Intel Core i5, 8GB RAM, 1TB) - Silver 7. amzn.to -Dell i5680-7813BLU-PUS Inspiron Gaming PC Desktop 5680, Intel Core i7-8700, 16GB DDR4 Memory, 128GB SSD+2TB SATA HDD, NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1060, Recon Blue, Windows 10 64-bit
by Red_Rock5
3
Lessons from an Experienced Trader #3Lesson 7 Trade Outcome is Random The outcome of any given trade is random, no matter how strong your edge is. It is impossible to predict whether a trade will result in a loss, decent profit, or a windfall profit. Contrary to what most Price Action traders and price analysts believe, you cannot and will never be able to predict the market. Most amateur traders fail to recognize this fact, or deny this reality altogether. They believe eventually, they will be able to avoid losing trades and pick winners. They do not understand the outcome of any given trade is random, and therefore impossible to know before hand. Consider weather prediction as an example. Meteorologists have highly sophisticated weather models and algorithms to predict weather behavior, just like traders and institutions in the market. Yet the weathermen cannot accurately predict what will occur. They can say "There is a 60% chance of rain today if you live in X." But they cannot say exactly when or where rain will fall. It is the same in the market. You may have a good idea of what may occur, and even be right! However, there is still a reasonable chance (usually around 40%) that you are wrong, and the exact opposite will occur. The market is always right. It does not matter what you think or believe should or will happen. All that matters is what is happening. Just because a trade looks good or an edge is strong, does not mean it will result in a profit. There is still an opposing probability that it will fail. The point is that you will never know beyond a reasonable doubt what the market will do next. You may have a hunch, or a strong edge, but that will only get you so far. Therefore the only thing to do is to always take your edge, because you never know if this will be the windfall profit you are looking for, a small profit, or a loss. And quite frankly, it does not matter! Lesson 8 Market Outcome Does Not Matter The outcome of any single trade does not matter. It is very common for traders to become attached to the outcome of this individual trade. This is what leads to emotions, anger and frustration with trading and the market. We get stuck in the mindset that we have to win X amount of profit like 2X risk on this trade, or have to make money every day to be a profitable trader. This is not the case at all. In fact you only have to win one 1 or 2 really good trades out of 10 to maintain a consistent performance. Any single trade is irrelevant to a trading system or strategy. It is the cumulative result over a series of trades that results in a profit. This is why it is so important to know and only trade your edge, otherwise you introduce randomness into your performance, and are unable to produce consistency. *If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
Education
by tradersmentality
Overcoming Emotions and Zen TradingOvercoming Emotions Most traders want to "overcome" their emotions. They view thoughts and emotions as the enemy which prevents them from succeeding in the market. This is a false perception. Yes emotions and thoughts can lead to actions in the market, but they are impossible to remove. So long as you are human you will have emotions and thoughts. There is an alternative to removing them, and that is to use them to your advantage in the market. By practicing mindfulness, which is awareness of thoughts, emotions, and perceptions, you can learn to recognize how these affect your trading performance. By recognizing and being aware of them, you have a chance to change the outcome. For instance if you consistently enter poor trades due to fear of missing out. When you become aware of this fear you can learn to stop yourself from entering and avoid the poor trades that hurt your performance. There is a direct correlation between how you feel about yourself or the market, and how you perform. If you are worried about money you will overly focus on risk or prices going against your position even if only slightly, and likely make a mistake by exiting too soon. Or you do not want to take the loss and will hold the trade too long, hoping the market will let you off the hook with a smaller loss. What is Zen Trading about? Zen trading is a mindset of flowing with the market without hesitation, being aware of and trading along side emotions, and making actions intuitively rather than forcefully. A Zen trader remains in a relaxed, effortless state of mind; without any internal struggle. He does not attach his self worth to his performance at any given time, and is unhindered by market outcomes. He acts on his edge when it is present without hesitating, and takes what the market gives him when it is time to do so. He trusts himself, his strategy, and the market to provide him with a consistent performance over time; whether or not he makes money on this trade, today, or this week. He is aware of the bigger picture; the Tao or life, and knows there is more to life than trading or money. Trading is not his life. It is simply something he does to earn a living, and he seeks to maintain a Zen spirit in his trading and actions in the market. *If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by tradersmentality
Lessons from an Experienced Trader Lessons from an experienced trader. Lesson 1. Never scalp. Although scalping seems to be the most profitable and best method in today's market, it is certainly not. Scalping is the hardest method to achieve a consistent performance. High frequency trading firms scalp, but they have many advantages over the retail trader including direct access to exchanges, highly developed algorithms with no emotions, and extremely low costs to name a few. When you are scalping you are competing against these firms or trying to manually do what they do with a computer. This above is only one problem. The bigger issue is the risk involved. When scalping, you must use a wide stop and be willing to scale in. One bad trade will erase 20 or more good trades. You must be extremely proficient at reading price charts, and be able to act without hesitation. This is virtually impossible for anyone who has not been trading for at least 3 years and has done extensive work on himself to develop the ability to flow with the market, constantly, without any internal conflict. And worst of all, scalping leads to bad habits. Once you get into the mindset of "get out quick" it is very hard to correct down the road. This makes swing trading more difficult later on after you realize it is a better method. Lesson 2. Swing Trade the best setups Swing trading is much more forgiving than scalping, offers a larger reward, and allows for a smaller risk (usually). This makes it much easier to make money long term. When swing trading you only have to win on around 40% of your trades to make a profit. If you can develop the patience to wait for strong setups, you can increase the winning percentage to anywhere from 50-70% and greatly increase your traders equation. A swing trading approach is also more forgiving when it comes to reading price charts. Some of those who discuss Price Action would lead you to believe you can predict what the markets are going to do next. This is simply not true, no matter how good you are at reading a chart. There is always a degree of randomness in the market, with any edge, any setup, or any context. When swing trading, you can afford to be wrong and make mistakes. So what setups should a swing trader take? Well, it depends if you want to always in trade or swing trade with signal bar stops. Either is fine, although an always in approach takes more practice and is harder to get right until you are good at reading charts. An always in trader has two choices. One to take every logical reversal (hardest to accomplish), and constantly reverse when necessary. Or two; wait for the always in direction to be clear and enter any in any fashion until the market flips. The second method is easier, although still tough, and slightly less profitable. An always in trader does not trade when prices are in a trading range. The reward is simply too low, and there are too many reversals to take and that fail, resulting in repeated losses and increased commission costs. What about a swing trader? A swing trader typically uses a signal bar stop, but can also use a swing stop to increase his probability. A swing trader does not have to take every trade he sees (unlike the first always in trader). In fact, it is best to wait for the best and clearest setups. What setups are these? High 2's, Low 2's (large) reversals and flags, Wedge reversals and flags, failed breakouts, and failed reversals. The first two are much easier to identify correctly for someone with less experience. The later two often trick newer traders, or fail once or twice before succeeding, making it a bit harder to get right. Lesson 3. Work on your self Like discussed before, most new traders and even those who have been around but haven't reached consistency believe that eventually you can read prices well enough to predict what will happen next. It does not matter how long you have traded, you will never predict the market. If it were possible to do so, the market would cease to exist! So instead of only focusing on reading charts and price action, you must work on your self. You must understand your strengths and weaknesses. You must be aware of your emotions and how they affect your performance. If you do not believe your emotions are directly related to your performance, you will not achieve consistency long term. We are all humans, a computer cannot do what I do. And you cannot remove emotions, no matter how hard you try to do so. So what is the alternative? Develop awareness of them, and use them to your advantage! It is as plain and simple as this. Trading requires you to understand your self, on a deep and internal level. You must be in tune with your self and the market. If you chose to ignore this fact, you may succeed temporarily, but it is only a matter of time before your performance diminishes. In order to make a lot of money, you must feel you deserve it. If you do not work on yourself, this simply will not happen. Does a professional athlete become a star by waiting around for his coach to tell him what to do? No. He dedicates himself in every possible way to his sport, including conditioning his mind to outperform his competition. Rather than waiting 2 or 3 years before realizing this, start working on your self from the very beginning. Not only will you become a better trader faster, you will become a better person; a better you.
by tradersmentality
BTCUSD Friends do not give in to emotionsThe stage of getting rid of hamsters is already over. The beginning of the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin . The maximum price of a new next cycle is $ 230,000 Time to accumulate positions. Like gold , Bitcoin likes to hurt traders. Even in growing markets there is such a draining of prices. Before the asset begin to conquer new peaks. I do not see how Bitcoin breaks through $ 6000 without a new plum. If Bitcoin wants to break through the $ 6000 level, he needs to shave everyone. To cut all those who feel the taste of the euphoria of new growth.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by IgorPorokh
5
Money Management & Psychology 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Money Management/Psychology Cycle of Market Emotions The Upturn • Optimism: The normal financial specialist enters the market feeling hopeful. They may likewise have elevated requirements for the profits in which they are involved. • Excitement: When the market goes up, the desires begin to end up noticeably a reality and the financial specialist encounters commitment. • Thrill: The market proceeds up and the financial specialist is excited. • Euphoria: As the market achieves its peak, the financial specialist is euphoric and very certain that the market will proceed up. The Downturn • Anxiety: The market starts to plunge, producing sentiments of nervousness (Point 5). • Denial—The market keeps on falling, and the financial specialist experiences dissent with so many considerations as "It's alright, I'm in it for the long run," and "This is only a transitory misfortune," (Point 6). • Desperation and Panic—As the market cycles bring down still, sentiments of urgency and anger follow (Points 7 and 8, separately). • Surrender—Panic, in the long run, offers an approach to surrender when the financial specialist supposes "How might I have been so off-base? I cannot deal with being in the market anymore. I can't take any more misfortunes," (Point 9). The Bottom and the Recovery • Depression: While the financial specialist flounders in wretchedness (point 10), the market winds up in a sorry situation and offers a route to another bull. • Hope: As the market keeps on reinforcing, the financial specialist is confident that the market will proceed up (Point 11). • Relief: Once the market affirms it is in an uptrend, the speculator feels alleviation, however, they are as yet not sufficiently sure to contribute (Point 12). • Optimism: The financial specialist holds up until the point that they feel idealistic once more (Point 1 or frequently significantly later) before re-entering the market. As we portrayed over, this typically does not occur until the point that they have officially missed a huge bit of the up move, and their opportunity to recover misfortunes with it. Position Structure There are several trading software’s, which empowers the individuals to either structure or drive their framework by an individual or by position. Before the data is set-up in the control tables, an individual should choose which technique to utilise. The framework forms the data contrastingly relying upon the person’s decision. When the software is driven by an individual, work codes are utilised to arrange work information into gatherings. These codes are utilised to connect individual information to work information. When the software is driven by position, despite everything, work codes are utilised to make general gatherings or occupation arrangements in the association, for example, EEO (measure up to business opportunity) and pay review information.
Education
by SMPTrader
Trading Psychology Introduction to Trader Psychology There is evidence of technical analysis dating back to the 17th century. The candlestick charts most of use everyday to trade were created in the 18th century by a Japanese rice trader. By this point one would think technical analysis should result in more profitable traders and lead atleast a quarter of price technicians to a profit. However, this is not the case and in fact the opposite is true as most traders fail, even after years of studying price action. With this said, it is obvious learning how to read a price chart alone is not what leads to consistent profits. So what is it that seperates the very few succesful traders from the so many failures? Is it their strategy, their money managament skills, IQ, were they born with a different skill set than most, do they work harder than most, or are they just plain lucky? All of these sound plausible, but are they really the driving factor behind consistent profits? The short answer is no, none of the above. Perhaps we have been looking for the answer in the wrong place all along. In fact, most traders never even consider the possibility that it is their attitude or mental habits which prevent their success. What truely seperates the winners from the losers has nothing to do with external factors, but rather what goes on internally while observing and engaging the market, in other words; a traders mentality. "If the next bar is a bull follow through bar, the bulls have a 60% chance of making a profit. If the next bar is a bear bar that means....." Absolutely nothing! Unless you can structure a trade plan, and abide your plan as the market unfolds, without questioning yourself or your plan, and execute it flawlessly. Most beginning traders believe if they study harder and learn more setups, they will eventually become profitable. This is the fallacy of price action analysis. In fact, most economists and price analysts do not make good traders. Why? Because they form rigid rules and ideas as to what prices should or will do, and in turn fail to recognize and accept the "now opporutinty" the market is offering to traders who are open to all possibilities, including a lower probability event. Even more debilitating is the false belief that they can pick out winning trades, and avoid the losers, which leads to cherry picking through a traders edge. If the market spends most of its time with a probability between 40-60%, why is it so hard to generate a consistent profit? Understanding prices and their tendencies is only half the battle of becoming a Professional Trader. The other half and harder to develop, is the traders mindset. What makes a good trader is not only his knack for reading prices. It is the ability to flow with the market as it is unfolding, and the art of doing the right thing at the right time; without questioning himself. If the market is only offering X amount of profit, he takes it. If the market is unfolding in a way that he did not expect, he exits. He is willing to take a loss, and more importantly does not care what happens to "himself" in the market. He does not take it personally, and carries on throughout the day executing trade after trade. Continued...
Education
by tradersmentality