Crash 2020 - End of the bull marketSince 2008 we have had no real recession. 21 December 2019 we just hit the top resistance of ascending wedge on the monthly chart.
Coincidence? I think not.
Add the repo crisis like we had in september, trade war risk, and election uncertainty, brexit uncertainty, housing market bubble and dept buildup and we have are at more then enough to make this technical perspective come true on fundamental basis.
Profit targets set at support levels, demand zones.
(Using log chart and heiken ashi chart)
End
BTCUSD Inception, The End Game. A.k.a The Big LongGreetings fellow traders,
As time goes by, the markets evolve...
If your way of TA is strong, then the path will lead its way...
More visible, more probable:
Dashed lines; Possible forming patterns
Solid lines; Confirmed patterns / Support or Resistance
Dotted lines; Possible price-action trajectories / wave trend
Light colors = Support / Dark colors = Resistance
' I’m trying to free your mind, Neo. But I can only show you the door. You’re the one that has to walk through it. '
~ Morpheus, The Matrix ~
With that having quoted, this is my way of keeping order in the chaos. I call it, "Pattern Formation Level( PFL )":
Alpha > Beta > Delta > Echo > Gamma > ( Secret???? )
Explanation PFL:
Alpha; ST / Bullish Pennant pattern formation, a.k.a. "The End Game", a.k.a. "The Big Long". (Daily and higher time-frames)
Beta; Most recent relevant and biggest forming pattern within The Alpha forming pattern. FW / DC. (4-24 hour time-frames)
Delta; Most recent relevant forming patterns within The Beta pattern. (4-8 hour time-frames)
Echo; Most recent relevant forming patterns within The Delta pattern. (1-4 hour time-frames)
Gamma; You get the picture... (10-60 min. time-frames)
Secret Level; Do not thread these treacherous waters. Only for master level TA skills. (10 min. and lower time-frames)
Eventually the PFL's are all connected. Gamma patterns combines into Echo pattern and Echo patterns combines into Delta patterns etc. Until the Alpha patterns has been formed. I'm not calling it just the Alpha for dominance in size. For as this pattern, is, the Alpha and Omega. Which will start a new market cycle and end the current one. By inserting pattern formations in the PFL as parameter. This makes it easier keeping track of which pattern formations are relevant to the current TA and entry or exit strategies. It might be hard to learn, but it is certainly easy to master.
As a programmer and I like playing chess. As result to my TA, I like to look ahead as far as possible. This is only doable if you have reasonable reliable trends to follow. That's why I came up with this system. In time, as I gain experience in the markets. My TA skills evolves and in parallel my systems and indicators.
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Current Delta patterns:
Possible forming pattern: DT has 1st confirmations on resistance and support levels.
Current Echo patterns:
DBW
Current Gamma patterns:
DC
Today's Note:
This an end years forecast and a short retrospective of 2019. As we can see here, we have 2 confirmed Beta patterns since The 2017 bubble. The 3rd and current Beta(DC/FW) pattern that has been forming since June 2019 bubble. Apparently we're still on track and the Beta patterns are forming the current Alpha(ST/Pennant) pattern. If The End Game plays out... Then prepare for the trade of your life, for this will be a life changing opportunity that is most likely ahead of us. However this can only happen one way. Nevertheless, it's going to be a low risk / reward opportunity. If the support of the Alpha(ST/Pennant) trend. Going to enter a long position in the $4.7K - 4.8K regions. Depends where BTC finds and holds support. Then it's a matter of time. From this point, i believe, FA will be crucial to follow. The technical's are resolute from that point and henceforth the fundamentals should give us signs that can trigger The End Game. A good possibility will be the BTC Halvening of 2020. But only time will tell...
To be concluded...
Current Targets:
Exit short position / Entry long position target: $4.7K - 4.8K region.
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Epilogue:
If you don't want to miss out on any of my daily technical analysis. Then click or tap on follow and don't forget to smash on that like button ^^, thanks in advance.
In case you're wondering which indicator I'm using. She's called EMI , short for 'Epic Market Indicator' and she's a collection of diverse indicators. How to use, is in the description. You can use them like any other indicators. Search for 'epic market indicator' then add. I have recently published the latest versions. EMI 1 v3.0 & EMI 2 v2.0. Like any other instrument, practice makes perfect. If you have any input for EMI or questions about my way of TA(*Asian sound-effects*). Please leave a comment or DM me and I'll try to respond a.s.a.p. Be careful and good luck fellow traders, may the trend gods be with you!
SPX Finishing September with a rebound Check out my trend lines, and predicted price movement lines. This is a fun test of my skills. I have been here a week and am still learning. For those of you who have been following me I am a SBUX bull. I have a high stake in an options call for SBUX to hit $105 by 11/15. I am relying on steady growth until earnings and then a killer Q4 earnings. Comment below your opinions on starbucks and your thoughts/predictions on their Q4 report.
So far on trade view I have a 60% accuracy rating for my calls, which is an F. So please don’t make trades based on my predictions until I improve my skills, thank you!
DAX: The years end analysis! *WEEKLY UPDATE*Hey tradomaniacs,
wow what a crazy and sad year for all bulls.
I hope you all had some short-certs and made a lot of money.
But yes, it is as we all had to expect! The financial crisis of 2008 got shifted by financial injections
of the FED, ECB and other central banks.
The low interest-rate and QE made it worse and worse and might be time to pop the bubble.
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Technical aspects:
The year started 12.889 and the DIVA found its peek @ 13.600!
(Thank you Trump for your Tax-promises which made that possible! ;-D)
Since then the DAX has created the first double-top and turned out to be a S/H/S or Diamond-Pattern which is the first evidence of a trendchange.
It`s crazy, but after the Break through the NEckline we`ve seen another attempt called the retest or Kissback to get above 11.800 again.
That bounce and S&R-Flip was the confirmation for the market to sell-off the Diva and went down to the years-low of 10.284.
HA but look - we could fight our way back to the 61,8% retracement-level which is obviously a very common level for the bulls.
It`s been a long time since the market has been oversold like these days. When is the time for a correction?
Well - My opinion - I think it`s time to see the DIVA trying to get above 10.829 - 11.100 is possible!
The last weekly candle is a huge Doji, which indicates a lot of Buy-Pressure caused by the U.S. Market.
Overall the chart looks pretty bearish, but the price is very low and I think there might be some bulls in the tank trying to buy this one.
We will see!
I WISH YOU GUYS A HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE! Enjoy the time with friends and family!
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
DAX: Weekly Overview! Chance to get back to 12k!Years-End-Rally?Hey tradomaniacs,
we had a very rough time and there are still a lot of political concerning circumstances against my assumption.
It looks like the market trys to grab every chance it can get to buy DAX for such a low price.
The german market was able to prove its sentiment within the last week since the US-market was in "Holiday" and
gave us no impulses to follow during the Wallstreet-Session. The market was just uncertain and didn`t move at all.
What does that mean?
It seems like the german / european market has no own opinion about the current situation.
Are we waiting for actions of Trump and the white house?
Are we waiting for sales numbers after the black friday?
Are we waiting for the Brexit?
There are 5 important upcomig events next week:
1. Trump-Xi Meeting
2. Brexit Developments
3. FED: Powell Speaks
4. U.S. 3Q GDP - Second Estimate5
5. Euro Zone Flash Inflation
Technical situation:
As you can see, we are currently in a situation which looks like a decent correction after the impuls-phase
that started in Feb.2016 and ended in the beginning of this year.
Since we were violating 12.000, the market is still very bearish and could continue the joruney.
Technically it`s pretty likely to see a retracement in order to create the WAVE B of wave (Y)
to retest the golden and psychologically very important mark of 12.000.
The market could prove it`s creed and should give us a clear direction forcing more market-players to react.
We still see a double-bottom @ 11.000 with a neckline @ 11.687! If we trigger that pattern we could
head to the big battlefield at 12.000 and find the path the DAX really wants to go.
Remember: The seasonality is great! The years-end-rally could give us nice chances to buy the market.
And as often, the END-BOSS will activate the "Rage-mode" before he capitulates! ;-D
But yeah, everything CAN HAPPEN.
Have a nice start into the new week!
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forgetto follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
BITCOIN: weekly OVERVIEW - Next station at 4.663? *19.11.18*Hey tradomaniacs,
welcome to a weekly overview of Bit-Coin!
I know, everyone is nervous but also scared to miss the chance before we go up to the moon.
But it seems like we could still see some bullish momentums down to 4.663 - 4.000 before
we might continue the primary uptrend in Januar 2019!
Why do I think so?
Because big financial institutions won`t stack big positions at this price.
As always, the market will dump the retail-cryptoheads and cause panic sell-offs before they buy-in
in order to get a BTC as cheap as possible.
If you think BTC could be aa very nice alternative for the falling stock-market, you should
rather wait since the signs for a years-end-rally at the Wallstreet are positiv.
However, we will see what is going to happen.
The market is currently still bearish! Don`t buy just because you "guess" and FOMO.
Chill and wait for clear signals upwards. :-)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me!
Any questions? PM me. :-)
S&P500: Weekly overview! That Sell-Off was nothing! *19.11.18*Hey tradomaniacs,
quick another overview of SPX500!
it seems like we could turn upwards again and retest the recent ATH.
Check my recent analysis in addition to this one.
We were talking about Sell-Offs, CRASH-scnearios, recessions and soooo on.
However, this sell-off was and is still a joke and I expect a Years-End-Rally coming.
We will see. :-)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
DAX: Weekly overview! WIll we restest the 12.000? ***19.11.18***Hey tradomaniacs,
since we`ve created the Diamond-Pattern after the high in Mai @ 13.206, we`ve seen a huge Sell-Off down to 11.040,5 this october!
It was as crazy and volatile as expected! But what now?
There were many different fundamental aspects causing this nervous market.
Italy`s budget and it`s bond yields
Failing Brexit
Weak wallstreet which is concerned about the tradewar
Strong US-Dollar
Supply-deficits in the tech-sector (apple) which totally destroyed the Dow&Jones and SPX500,
Saudi-Arabia and so on.
However, we know the market is irrational and won`t give up that quick. The scent of profit is too strong and the market might see good chances to buy during the Years-End causing a rally.
Will we retest 12.000?
The Chart is currently still bearish. But break through the imortant 12.000 could be like a heart-warming hot chocolate during cold winter days giving the market hope to see a rally up to a new ATH.
I expect at least a retest of it. :-)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
I WILL CALL THE END OF THE CRASH.9 months ago i have sold a large amount of my BTC with the precious help of the media.
During last 7 months i have short all your euphoria (cf all my previous charts).
Guess what happened now ?
I'M BUYING YOUR FEAR.
Yes guys, i'm back in the game (in fact i'm half-back you should never be over exposed to the market). I have closed my shorts positions. And i'm buying your cheap BTC. I have already started to accumulate LTC since we are not able (or just marginally) to make new low under 49$.
What happened since my last call 3 months ago ? NOTHING and that's what looks goooood. We have try to break the support zone and be reject pretty easily at 5750 (the exact target of my precedent chart "TAKE CARE OF WYCKOFF").
Uneducated and leveraged speculator are over shorted a support which is not break : s3.amazonaws.com
That's good for the bulls.
Now how works the psychology behind a CRASH market ?
Wave 1 : After a parabolic rise and an ultimate FOMO. The bears manage to break the trend line and send a clear signal : BULL SEASON IS OVER. This is a very hard wave to predict and the more vertical one. All the weak-hands and the people who buy too much on EUPHORIA phase are NOW DEAD . You are alive ? Nice you got to the next level.
Wave 2 : Every investors and professional traders know this wave is coming. They wait this one to exit the rest of their position. New investors and moonboys are FOMOing again and reinforce their position ! Despite the enormous volatility they can't see this is a new market ! THEY ARE BUYING THE DIP !! Result ? BULLTRAP. You have reinforce your long position ? You have use some leverage ? CONGRATS YOU'RE DEAD .
Wave 3 : This is the mothers of the waves, the one that will break all your supports ! All your bullish patterns are invalidated, you BUYS the supports ? You are DEAD , wave 3 destroyed them. All people who have bought BTC over 10K are dead or are bag holders. In this wave the BEARS are in full control of the market. you have FEAR and brutal Capitulation.
Wave 4 : This one is a tinny bitch, she gives you some hope. "OK GUYS THAT WAS ABC correction WE ARE FINE", few traders and investors who are not dead yet (trust me they are few, less than 40% for sure) get momentum euphoria ! "WOAW LOOK AT THE VOLUME THIS REVERSAL". Everyone jump in (including all the guys who have sold at 12k then buy the bull trap and then sold at 8k). Just before you break the RESISTANCE. Market tell you "NO". The fear is real, the sell-off quick again, price lose 1K in 1h. It's already too late for you : YOU ARE DEAD .
Wave 5 : Oh man, wave 5. This one is the worst one, his nickname ? Despair. Why ? Because all the Smart money and most of the professional have now let you alone. You are ALONE in the DARKNESS. You see others littles fish without light which are trying some actions. In the depths they have no more whales, no more sharks, they have YOU a ridiculous little fish and there are some strange algae (algo bots). Their goal is to STRANGLE you. MOONBOYS and Amators are already all dead. This wave is sicking real investor blood. How much traders you followed have been wrong during this wave trying to find the bottom ! Just tell me. At this time the market is rejected on every resistance. YOU CANT PASS a single resistance now, all the pumps are faster and faster, lower and lower. The volatility is dying, the investors begin to think BTC is just dead. No volume, no volatility : nothing. You buy every FOMO ? YOU ARE DEAD. Speculator are leaving the market after they lost all their money, investors begin to sell to buy GOLD, SPX and some real assets. Life goes on... but not BTC. BUT this wave don't want to break only the holders. This wave killed all the shorters and sellers too. You can't make new high, you can't make new low. Fake breakout and breakdown are everywhere. YOU ARE LOST. But i have a BIG NEWS for YOU. If despite all this you are still ALIVE (and i mean have not loss +30% of your capital) Congratulations POP CHAMPAGNE to this, it's your moment so enjoy it. You are one of the 5% who will eventually win money on this market.
Wave 1 and 2 : Smart money and professional traders need time to accumulate. So they take it. They buy your fear. IM BUYING YOUR FEAR. "This rally suck", yes but bears can't establish new low. You have to be creative to find a technical support at this time. This is maybe the best opportunity wave in a LIFE TIME.
So guys after this little story, i have decided to give you some of my real work. I hope you will enjoy and BLOW UP the likes. I'm doing this shit one time. I'll not do it everyday.
First THIS IS THE CHART YOU HAVE TO LOOK :
s3.amazonaws.com
The crash begging with the entry of the FUTURES so let's talk about it ! You can see the nice and massive triangle which is only as beautiful on this chart. You can see the volume begin to spike again near the Apex. And the RSI shows real strength. The weekly RSI on this chart is making a massive BULLISH divergence.
s3.amazonaws.com
And now some Master Piece. This is my personal indicators. I give it you for FREE :
This is the TOTAL MARKET CAP which shows you a MONSTER WEEKLY BULLFLAG ready to BREAKOUT (these flag breakout 70% of time). We are speaking about all the Crypto world ready to explode.
EVERYONE is comparing BTC 2014 to BTC 2018.
IM LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE CRYPTO WORLD.
5% spread ? Guys that might be THE END.
AS always a CRASH is a very hard market to predict. It can take waaaaayy more time than on my graph but i trully believe the crash is end OR the 2018 crash will begin to be very very dirty because all the crypto world have already retrace as much as the 2014 CRASH. You have seen i have made a LOT of money selling your FOMO last 6 months so i can risk this trade. My stop loss is under 5700$ under 46$ for LTC in case i am wrong. This is my personal trading, not an assertion or and advice to BUY or SELL.
I wish you all the best. Please if you enjoy this update, show me your support : LIKE, SHARE and COMMENT.
SUMMER is COMING.
Bitcoin's doomWe are aproaching the limit for bitcoin's distribution.
We have clearly reached the point in which it will crash (If you dont consider a fall from 20k to 6k a crash).
Once it breaches the 5,5k line the next suport will be around 2,8k but such suport wont have enough strenght to hold it.
So what i am saying right now is that if bitcoin goes below 5k, its gonna get to 3 or 2 digits pretty quickly.
That doesnt mean the blockchain trend is gonna end, but instead, its gonna reprice itself in a more suitable baseline.
NDX: Nasdaq 100 A good end to the week in storeNasdaq 100 NDX
Reading 2578 now - can come back to 7569 on the open but
should hold hold up here if the day is to remain a good
one....think it will be after a twitchy start. Marketmakers
need to try shaking the tree to get some stock on
board...don't think they will shake out much though - which
should bode well for the rest of the day if correct.
A potentially great end to the week in store...
*For fastest updates in real-time please see link, top-left of main page.
EOY BTC Price Prediction MovementsThis is meant to be a very simplistic and rough view of how BTC will move for the rest of the year. Actual peaks and troughs are chosen from current and potential resistance/support areas. The timeframe of these movements is estimated--give or take several days--with an end year goal of $25,000. This is a conservative estimate. Bulls may come in sooner and faster.
Ignore the elliott wave . It's not really meant to symbolize anything.
Apple Short? - The trend is (was?) your friend, until the end!The 20-year uptrend is coming to an end. The complete upward movement can already be counted ready. Long positions should be secured and I'm looking for enter short. The upper trend channel is also reached and RSI and MACD no longer confirm the highs. Wave (5) is also at 180.58 as long as wave (1). Looks like a harmonious conclusion. Attention! Apple is therefore on the watchlist for falling prices!
NXT 6 $ Is it posible ? We will see !Hi, everyone.
Lest have a look at 1 day charts of NXT.
Symmetrical line from 10 of march 2017 shows us that NXT get to the bottom of it's correction and should now go UP.
There is not much to explain about it, everything is on the graph.
The only problem I can see right now, is low volume. But that's can change at any time.
The most amazing think about NXT in my opinion is that it doesn't have a huge influence of BTC as others cryptocurrencies. Lets have a look on todays charts of LTC/XVG/ETC, they all followed BTC, but NXT was diffrent. It stayed at the same level when BTC was rising and when it's starts falling down.
Thank you for reading, feel free to leave your feedback .
This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.
Different perspective.