Triangle On Treasuries Suggests Limited Upside On StocksHello traders!
Today we will talk about treasuries (10year US Notes) and stocks (S&P500).
Well, as you may already know, treasuries and stocks are more or less in negative correlation and what we have noticed that 10y US Notes can be forming a big bullish triangle, while S&P500 can be finally finishing a five-wave rally from lows.
In EW theory, triangles are usually continuation patterns, so seems like treasuries can be headed higher, which means that stocks can see limited upside, especially now when we can clearly see five waves up from lows and according to EW rules, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows!
That said, if we are right, then ideal scenario would be a rally into the final wave "v" on treasuries, while stocks may see a deeper a-b-c correction! So, be aware of a potential sell-off and risk-off mode on stocks.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Ending Diagonal
BITCOIN ($BTC): The Last Chance For The Bulls...This is what I'm seeing for bitcoin as a last chance for the bulls. $3250 is an area I'm eyeing to complete current corrective Wave-B and then should Bitcoin should take us above $4000 as a motive Wave-C of current ABC correction. Current pattern looks like Ending Diagonal.
Elliott Count of DIA - Bear Move May Start Next WeekElliott Wave Count: Flat Correction (3-3-5)
- Waves A and B of the Flat have completed.
- Wave C is an Ending Diagonal (*A very small percentage of diagonals appear in the C-wave position* | sequence 3-3-3-3-3)
Current Predictions
1)
Targeted "Top" of Wave C of Ending Diagonal Wave 4 of the Flat Correction near the .618 Fib @ $242.84
2)
Beginning of descending Wave 5 of Ending Diagonal Wave C (of the Flat Correction) estimated to begin next week: January 16/17th
3)
If the current trend surpasses $248 , everything here is wrong/the Ending Diagonal Count is INVALID.
Sorry bulls, not just yetEthereum seems to have been forming a nice big ascending triangle over the last few days which would normally indicate a bullish breakout is imminent, but could this triangle be breaking into an ascending wedge instead to set the bulls up for a world of pain?
Arguments:
Bearishly diverging and faltering MACD
Heavily over-leveraged longs relative to shorts on bitfinex
Weak breakout from the upper horizontal resistance line
Faltering volume at the breakout
Detailed elliott wave count indicates an ending 5th wave diagonal (seen as an ascending wedge)
I really can't see a bullish argument for this weak of a breakout from this size of ascending triangle. With any ascending or descending triangle breakout the extent of the rally should be approximately equal to the width of the base of the triangle, which in this case would take us to about $200. I would expect to see a good chunk of this price action immediately at the breakout and... nothing. Zip. Nada. Bupkis.
A diagonal in Elliott wave is a structure in which wave 4 enters the territory of wave 1 with usually the 1st wave the longest and the 5th wave the shortest. It's often easy to spot from the drastic reduction in price increase from wave 1 to wave 3 and decreasing volume as the diagonal reaches it's apex. These structures typically end in a throw-over above the wedge and always retrace to at least the point of origin.
A break above $179 would invalidate this count as then wave 5 would exceed wave 3, so I'll ladder from $165 - $175. My 1st take-profit target is $120 and my 2nd is $107. After that, we'll see .
As always, manage your risk fellow traders!
BITCOIN-BULLS Are READY - But We Need The Last Wave Down!Dear Friends!
We are still following the path down my 5th Wave Ending Diagonal. Let me summarize:
Ending Diagonals Happens When:
- The price has declined extremely fast and too far during wave 1 to 4 due to panic
- Bitcoin is now oversold - Investors has begun to accumulate or buy steadily
- Descending wedge/diagonals points to an accumulation
- Ending diagonal is a complex extended 5th Elliott wave (33333)
Last Update:
Normally you shouldn't guess the bottom - But just for entertainment reasons: 3,224 USD!
Let's See! Have a wonderful day, guys!
-D4!
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BITCOIN And Schrodinger's Cat - Is It Dead Or Alive?Some people say Bitcoin is dead - others say it's still alive! For D4rkEnergY it may be simultaneously both alive and dead like Schrodinger's Cat.
This state is known as a quantum superposition. In the Quantum World a system stops being a superposition of states and becomes either one or the other when an observation takes place.
According to the Many-worlds interpretation is the observation it self not a special process - The alive and dead states of Bitcoin persist after you look at the chart, but are decoherent from each other. The observer and the possibly-dead BTC split into an observer looking at a dead BTC-chart, and another observer looking at a chart with BTC, which indeed is alive. But since the dead and alive states are decoherent, there is no effective communication or interaction between them.
HERE ARE THE REASON WHY WE MOST LIKELY ARE ON THE 5TH WAVE ENDING DIAGONAL
- The price has declined extremely fast and too far during wave 1 to 4 due to panic
- Bitcoin is now oversold - Investors has begun to accumulate or buy steadily
- Descending wedge/diagonals points to an accumulation
- Ending diagonal is a complex extended 5th Elliott wave (33333)
D4rkEnergY - Dead and Alive <3
PS. And as always: Please Leave a LIKE if you like cats!
Elliott Wave - Revenge"A man who desires revenge should dig two graves"
Back at September 10th we were optimistic about BTCUSD as it shown some volume , force, fractals and an Elliott counting that indicated a possible bullish reversal with higher lows since June 29.
As trend-based fib-extensions shown on previous TA, BTC price bounced a lot on 0.382 range on the last 3 bullish rally's and we concluded that this would be tested once again near 6780. Well it did tested, but could not break up.
The scenario became grim as the dim light revealed to be a trap of an abyss predator by September 22th. And the trend-based fib-extensions by the reason of 3 marked not a rally to 10k, but a dive into 4k monster belly.
As trend-based fib-extensions shown, 0.382 range have its importance on this bear market. That can also be seen by current POC. Also the reason of 3
from previous legs corroborate an ending diagonal.
Thanks for your attention, please comment.
BITCOIN Will Fall Now - But NOT So Much As You Think! See here!Dear Friends
We are still following my top trending post from yesterday - I will hopefully now proof to you, that we with our Elliott Waves can continue my forecast.
We will fall down now and hit my blue box - hereafter we will go up below 5,000 USD again for hereafter and say hello to 3,XXX again, which will be the last 11 structure wave correction.
Hopefully we can hereafter start a new uptrend. Let's see!
D4 Love You <3
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Crude looks to have more downside remaining (Elliott Wave)Crude : 1H : Updated : Looks like more downside is remaining in this market. From a short term perspective either Wave 3 is complete or still continuing.
If still continuing then we should see more down move from here as an Ending Diagonal.
If Wave 3 is already complete then we expect sort of Flat formation for Wave 4 as represented by the Red arrows.Strategy : From an Intraday perspective if we see Wave 4 continuation as a Flat then we will look for selling this market for Wave 5 down, however if we see an Ending Diagonal continuation then we will wait for completion of the same to trade longs.
Are we at a top on Coca Cola?Short term have been trading this up as the patterns have been nice for small bullish moves. Now we're at the top of the weekly ascending channel/wedge/expanding diagonal & have had many waves of bearish divergence with no real breakout to the upside for over 6 years. This is the time to start looking for sell setups (one is presenting itself on the 15 min) That setup will be in the comments!
Structurally this can have a big downside. Will it happen? Who knows, if it happens... id like to be in the trade.
What are your opinions!?
Trade responsibly and thanks for looking!
Ending diagonal on DOW - expecting final wave 5 up!DOW is in an interesting point as it has been in a bull market for some years now and time for a reversal/correction is certainly due - but not without a last push up by the giant index.
As shown in the chart, we've seen a series of 3 wave moves in a consolidation of sorts and this generally indicates that the move is either an ending diagonal or triangle as prescribed using Elliot Wave theory.
With that said, I am expecting a 3 wave move to reach a new high before a sharp reversal.
Watch the space!!!
Possible Ending Diagonal in SPX (Elliott Wave)Hypo 1(Yellow) : If this market goes above 2942 then that would mean that W.v of W.iii) is continuing as an Ending Diagonal.
Hypo 2 (Cyan) : On the other hand if we see a break below the Cyan channel straight from here then that would mean that we are in a W.iv) Flat type of correction.In case of H1, we will look for the Ending Diagonal to complete and then go short, in case of H2 the best strategy would be to wait for the completion of W.iv) and then go long for W.v)