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Ending Diagonal

EURUSD at a Crossroads - 1.11 key levelWe have been tracking a potential ending diagonal pattern in EURUSD that suggests a retest of 1.17. This Elliott Wave pattern is running out of real estate to the downside to still remain valid. Therefore, if it is going to remain valid, prices will need to rally soon. As it stands, the labels I'm following currently place us in wave (b) of ((v)) in the ending diagonal. That means we would need a (c) leg higher to finish it off (see "Final Leg of Diagonal Pattern" below for the higher time frame view. A sustained break below 1.11 means we will need to elevate the alternate counts suggesting other patterns. There are times when the top 2 or 3 wave counts line up in the same direction...especially going into a news event. We have several important news events coming up in the next week like FOMC or the Brexit vote. However, today is not one of those days where the top wave counts are lining up. Therefore, we'll need to be patient and wait for levels to break. 1.11 to the downside could be interesting for shorts. A move above the red trend line gets me interested to the long side. 2 tools we can watch for near term clues on price: 1. Live trader positioning - currently this is printing -1.12 as 53% of traders are short. Use this tool in a contrarian fashion 2. Grid Sight Indicator - This tool can help you see shifting momentum on an intraday level (down to a 1 minute chart). Watch this on 'm3' or 'm5' setting for clues about those shift. It is important to wait until AFTER the news to use this tool...don't use it as the news is being released. Good luck! Talk with you soon. Jeremy
by JWagnerFXTrader
2
Feeder Cattle - The ideally bottom for wave A seen at 130.78In October 2014 I called the top almost to the cent (see the link below). The decline from 244.80 is finally coming to an end near 130.78. Short term I'm looking for the final decline in red wave v of an ending diagonal and once the bottom is in place, a quick return to the origin of the ending diagonal at 169.58 should be seen, within half the time it took to build (that would amount to something like 3 months). That will however, likely be only the first part of wave B, as a continuation higher towards 187.80 and possibly even closer to 201.25 should be expected longer term. The clear divergence seen from the RSI indicator does confirm that, we are approaching the end of wave A and wave B can start soon. It's time to close the long term short position and shift towards a long position. Just a final word. Remember that correction in the commodity complex often is extremely violent. Just look at Soybeans and Soybean Meal.
F
by EWS
Bottom should be seen between 156.02 - 156.21GBP/JPY - Bottom to be found between 156.02 - 156.21 The decline from the 163.89 high has been relentless, but it's only part of an expanded flat correction and once the low is found a new strong rally higher should be seen. The low should be found in the 156.02 - 156.21 area. At 156.21 we have the magic 70.7% corrective target of wave (I know that the 70.7% corrective target isn't a Fibonacci number, but it's seen more often holding back corrections to be a mere coincident). the 156.02 target is the limit for wave five of the small ending diagonal that has developed over the last couple of days. As the name "ending diagonal" says it marks the termination of the move and once finished a sharp reversal is expected. The first indication of a bottom being in place is a break above minor resistance at 157.24, while a break above 158.01 confirms the low for a strong rally higher in wave . This rally will eventually take us back above the 163.89 top and longer term much more upside is expected.
Long
by EWS
6
Final Leg of Diagonal Pattern - 1.1050 Key LevelWith the Fed beating the drum of rate increases, many are looking for the Greenback to fundamentally strengthen. Though when and if the Fed actually increases rates is a debate for another day, let's look at the technical picture for EURUSD. It appears we are finalizing the 4th wave of a 5 wave diagonal pattern. We're looking for this 4th wave to terminate in the 1.1050-1.1200 price zone, then pivot higher to for a 1.17 retest. Two items can help with the long trigger: 1. Live trader positioning through FXCM - it currently reads +1.01...look for this number to drop to signal a bullish signal 2. A break above the red resistance trend line would signal the mood of the market could be shifting towards bulls. If this occurs, one could place a stop loss just below the recent swing low while targeting 1.16 for a positive risk to reward ratio. If prices meaningful penetrate 1.1050, then we'll need to consider the alternate patterns. Best of luck and happy trading!
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
11
NZDUSD Possible Wave-countDespite its choppiness since the start of this year, the NZDUSD pair has traced out what may be considered to be a respectable impulse wave. By this count, wave 2 and wave 4 held at their respective 61.8% retracements of wave 1 and 3, and wave 5 is an ending diagonal whose subwave ii retraced a bit more sharply than normal. Additional reasons to believe that the impulse wave has ended are the tweezer top formation just shy of the psychologically significant round number 0.7000 reinforced by a spike in volume. If this count is correct, we are currently in a corrective wave down. Trading this wave is doubly safe because the larger macro trend is down, despite the upward momentum since the start of the year. Furthermore, even if we are in the start of a new uptrend, we might expect a sharp correction in the ensuing second wave. Bearing in mind that ending diagonals often retrace swiftly to their point of origin, the safest way to trade the NZDUSD in the near future would be to buy the breakdown of the lower ascending trendline. A more conservative approach would be to wait for the likely pullback in wave B since A is the third touch of the trendline, and short anywhere in the entry zone between 0.6885 and 0.6965. The hard stop should be just above 0.7000. Take profit is at the bottom of wave 5 around 0.6500. A key price level to take note of is 0.6755, which is the top of wave 3 as well as the possible base of corrective wave A. Consider scaling out and locking in profits in this region. A possible scenario for this wave-count being incorrect is if wave 4 completes at the point currently marked subwave ii. If so, we are in the final subwave of an ending diagonal, in which case a violent reversal is to be expected at 0.7000. Either way, a sufficiently well placed stop just above 0.7000 should not be hit. Best of luck!
Short
by BrianSoh
EWA. EURUSD - An Ending Diagonal (Wedge)And so, after a little break in falling down, in the middle of august '15, EURO continues his journey to the south. Perhaps, now there is forming an ending diagonal in the wave 5 (or c). Why do I think so? As we can see, there are a lot of correction waves (ABC), both up and down. Therefore, there are two possible scenarios: The correction up will continue in the wave C, and the whole model will be a flat (marked with gray color). In this case, wave C can be an ending diagonal as well. There will be formed an endind diagonal, and the current "ABC's" are its wave I and II. After it's finished, the currency will start a major correction, but it'll be not earlier than next year. Why do I think it's the second scenario, even the ending diagonals are not so common? In the wave II, there were formed a beautiful triangle in its wave {B}. As we remember, accordind to the Elliot Wave rules, a triangle could be only a wave 4 or B. Obviously, it cannot be a wave 4, therefore it's a B-wave. The question is, it's a B-wave in the I-st wave of upside diagonal or it is in the II-nd wave of the downside diagonal? My trading plan: March has started with a little correction, and it's a good oportunity to sell. So, I open a short possition, even the correction can go further, with a stop-loss order at the local maximum - 1,137. Once the order is filled, it means I will trade the second scenario. I want to trade wave 3 only (because to trade wave 5 in an ending diagonal is too dangerous), so the target zone is, at least, 1,05, but probably it will be 1,04 or even more. So, the risk/reward ratio is acceptable.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn90040
1
USDCHF - MAJOR BEARISH REVERSAL COULD UNFOLD After SNB's intervention in 2011 and again in 2015 I felt that I would never again trade and CHF pairs. However, It is now giving the most clearest long term wave counts of any USD pairs which also confirms my view of USD bearish cycle I have held since late 2013, see other charts link below. Whilst I have been little early and premature in thinking the top in dollars has formed in my earlier publications, the overall picture has not changed and this is now potentially offering massive profit opportunity. Under this scenario the USD appears to be in a major bearish cycle which is in the final stage, taking the form of Ending Diagonal commencing from 1987 (as Tradingview do not have necessary historical data, for details please see Screencast chart link - www.screencast.com ) which is shown in monthly chart (see below) to give full picture of this potential ending diagonal (falling wedge of 3-3-3-3-3 construction). It seems highly likely that wave 4 has just completed and wave 5 of ending diagonal has commence and if it develops as anticipated could give some 3000 - 4000 pips and risking less than 500 pips. In fact that is based on weekly chart, but if drop down to daily or H4 entry could be taken with lot smaller stop loss. I understand this view would go against the general sentiments in favour of USD and lots talked about raising interest which would be USD positive. There are so many cross currents at work to really consider for anyone to see clear picture based on that fundamental. Therefore my view here is based entirely on Technical Analysis and my interpretation of Elliottewave Principle. So in summary: 1. Final stage of major bearish cycle in the form of ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction 2. Major top (wave 4) appears to have formed, with 2 attempted failures to break above previous highs (resistance) 3. Entry almost immediate (maximum stop under 400 pips), but on lower timeframe upon a pullback to Ideally to 1.0 - 1.01 zone with stop loss at 1.0275, ie approx 230 Pip (see H4 chart below) 4. Potential downside target offering 3000 - 4000 pips with some intermediate targets areas along the way. 5. To add confidence in coming to above conclusion see additional charts of other USD pairs giving the same overall view. 6. Invalidation would be price taking out the recent high at 1.0250. 7. If you trade on smaller time frame and wish to follow the trend then various methods could be used to manage the trade and look of re-entering short positions only and/or adding position on significant retracements. Conclusion: If the above anticipated in USD unfolds then this could offer similar opportunities across several USD pairs in various degree. At the same time I anticipate significant bearish cycle in stock and putting this things together suggest possible outflow of money from USA's soil under repatriation of funds or unwinding carry trade with YEN being the strongest of all major currencies. Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV danv-charting.com
Short
by DanV
26
Gold Shines Brighter - Cloud Looms Near 1137-1150Wednesday afternoon, the Fed shares with us their view on monetary policy in the US. In advance of the news events, we like to take a step back and assess the patterns on the chart to identify some key levels to watch out for. This allows us to detach as best as possible when the news is released. Going into the news Wednesday afternoon, we're following this longer term ending diagonal pattern that many have written about from an Elliott Wave perspective. Though the Dec 3 2015 low did get pretty close to the lower boundary of the diagonal, we're leaving the door open that it was only wave A of (5). That means the current rise would be B of (5). Once 'B' is finished, then another sell off would ensue in wave C of (5) which may be the final wave lower. 1137-1150 has been identified as a key level. This is the price zone where the (2)-(4) trend line and 61.8-78.6 retracement (of the Oct - Dec 2015 downtrend) reside. There may be a reaction lower near that zone. My colleague Ilya Spivak notes how the price of Gold has maintained an inverse correlation lately to the Fed Funds futures. I would encourage you to read more about that in his Q1 2016 Gold Forecast available here . Another interesting point to consider is that FXCM's SentimentIndex flipped to negative earlier today. The reading has been positive for more than 2 months. So this flip to negative expresses the potential for additional bullish juice available. This may push the prices higher into the cited zone of 1137-1150. Watch the SentimentIndex in real time to see how it behaves if prices do make it in the potential reversal zone. An alternate that we're considering is that the diagonal is finished which implies a break above wave (4). A move above the (2)-(4) trend line may provide an early warning signal to such a move. Good luck and happy trading!
FX:XAUUSD
by JWagnerFXTrader
1