BTCUSD: North only - or 50% correction? 'Everybody' want's BTC to go north only. Well, you know what I mean. People want to know why Bitcoin is flaking out. Some will say ' Anytime soon to $75,000! " There are several indicators on this chart. No predictions here. I don't do predictions. Only probabilities.
The chart shows some conflicting information. BTC is now coming into a zone of congestion and just nudged below the 100 MA. These two things suggest that 'everybody' who was holding their powder dry will be looking for a good deal. And sure they may make a few bob (as we say in England). There is no 'death cross' so 'everybody' is relaxed.
But there is a problem. The ATR on the daily has shown a sharp switch. This is not a good sign for a bullish market on this daily time frame. It indicates a probability for further movement south. But hold on - I didn't say price is going south 'now'!
Possible scenarios:
1. Price collapses dramatically now.
2. Price goes into consolidation and then collapses.
3. Price consolidates and moves north for while.
4. Price rockets to the moon right now.
The indicators are showing some interesting areas, that others may be watching. Caution: Indicators rule no market in the world. They give us a probability. So for every probability south there is a residual probability north e.g. if 62% north then 38% for the south (note this is just an example). And what does north mean? North doesn't mean to the moon. It means that price in any market may move a certain distance north which nobody can predict how far. Substitute 'south' for a bearish outlook. But I don’t imagine many people want to think about that one.
But note also that technical analysis does not rule markets. There a fundamental issues that rule too. But charts have a hard time mapping out fundamentals (unless it's some specific type of fundamental data).
What's spooking the Bitcoin market? The chatter in the blogosphere is about a ban on Bitcoin coming from the US, UK, China, Turkey and India (probably other countries as well). A few months ago I referred to when Gold was banned. I was laughed at. No problem. People simply said, "Nobody can ban crypto!! No chance! Impossible to enforce. " Well it doesn't matter. The point is that those who made their killing ain't taking the chance that it could be banned.
The next issue is that there is word on the block of a wave of capital gains taxes to hit. Are people going to wait on Biden to finalise it? Some will, some won't. Those who made their money are probably cashing in and not waiting for bad news. I don't blame them.
The history of the Gold ban is one that people should dig deep into. I'm not saying that Bitcoin is gold. I'm saying that your leaders who invented and protected fiat currencies, are most unlikely to allow an independent store of value to challenge their world order.
I don't want Bitcoin to flake out. I love its rebelliousness. But that particular feature is what may make it intolerable to 'the authorities'. Four times (approx) the price of gold (at peak) is serious provocation.
Trend is more important than price. Some say the trend is their friend. Some don't believe that.
Oh my mate (not on Tradingview), held on at $51,000 instead of bailing out. Tonight it's around $48,000 🙄 . Why do people hold on? They 'know', or they 'hope', it's going back north. The 'enemies within' rule. This mate of mine is not a trader. She'll probably hold on some more and if it pushes back to 56,000 will say ' See what I mean - I was right! ' That's some kind of confirmation bias or something. But folk like these don't have an exit strategy. I don't tell people what to do with their money or investments.
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