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Brent Oil - Bullish above $48.80Resistance - $48.80, $49.81-50, $52.00 Support - $47.72, $47.36, $46.74 Brent’s bearish price RSI divergence on the daily chart, followed by a bearish crossover between hourly 50-SMA and 100-SMA is likely to keep the prices under pressure. However, bears need to watch out for a rebound from $48.26 followed by a recovery above key hurdle of $48.80 as that would result in a rally to $49.43-$49.81 levels. On the downside, breach of support at $47.72 (hourly 200-MA) could see prices test $47.36-47.00 levels.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
WTI Oil - bearish price RSI divergence on 4-hr chartPrices hit a high of $49.14 before trimming gains to trade around $48.80 levels. 4-hour chart shows a bearish price RSI divergence. Also note, futures show a gap up opening today. The gap is between $48.22 and $48.82 levels. In the light of bearish price RSI divergence, prices appear likely to fill the gap ahead of NY closing. On a larger scheme of things, bullish invalidation is seen only if prices see a day end closing below Apr 29 high.
FX:USOIL
by TipTVFinance
1
Brent oil – bearish price RSI divergence intactResistance - $49.40, $50.00, $50.98 Support - $48.86, $48.26, $47.69 Brent’s rebound from daily 10-MA level ($47.36) yesterday followed by a day end closing above $48.26 has kept hopes alive for break above recent high of $49.81. However, bearish price RSI divergence would be nullified only in case of a day end closing above $49.81. Hence, there is scope for a drop today if - failure to take out $49.40 is followed by a break below Asian session low of $48.86. In such a case, support at $48.26-47.69 stands exposed.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
WTI retreats, but no divergence at play hereDaily chart of US Oil/WTI Oil does not show any negative price-RSI divergence as we spotted earlier today on the daily chart of Brent oil. So the question arises is whom to trust as major reversals usually happen after bearish divergence with RSI. Though Brent shows it WTI does not. From traders perspective, it is important to see if both benchmarks drop and sustain below April 29 high. If so, Brent's negative divergence would gain more credence. If there is a rebound, from April 29 high, the fact that there is no bearish divergence on WTI gains credence and then would indicate increased prospects of rally in both benchmarks.
FX:USOIL
by TipTVFinance
3
Brent oil - Technical correction ahead?A look at the hourly chart shows rising trend line has been breached and higher highs formation on the price is accompanied by lower highs on RSI indicating a bearish divergence. The American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude supplies fell by 1.1 million barrels for the week ended May 13. Markets were expecting a decline of 3 million barrels. Traders now wait for US government data release. A smaller-than-expected drop in inventories or rise in inventories along with rise in gasoline stocks could be enough to trigger a technical correction in oil. Brent could drop to trend line support around $48.73. Further losses towards $47.99 (23.6% Fibo) cannot be ruled out on bearish inventory report. On the higher side, psychological level of $50.00 stands exposed and could be breached/tested on bullish inventory report.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - More gains on hourly closing above $49.38 Hourly chart pattern - bearish price RSI divergence Resistance - $50.00, $50.89, $52.00 Support - $47.79, $46.80, $45.32 Brent appears poised to test psychological level of $50.00 if prices confirm a close above $49.38 on hourly chart. Moreover, such a closing would negate the bearish price RSI divergence on the hourly chart. Failure to do so could trigger a minor technical correction in oil prices. However, bullish invalidation is seen only if prices see a day end closing below $48.26, in which case we would have a bearish price RSI divergence on the daily chart.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - 50% of Apr 2015 to Jan 2016 drop retractedAnother important point to note is Brent oil has retracted 50% of Apr 2015 high to Jan 2016 low. The level stands at $48.34, while prices currently trade around 48.70 levels. Earlier today, I had posted on a possible bearish price RSI divergence on the daily chart , if today's day end closing is weak. If prices end below $48.00, that would mark a bearish price RSI divergence and failure to sustain above two key levels - 47.99 (23.6% of June 2014 high-Jan 2015 low) and 48.34 (50% of Apr 2015-Jan 2016 drop).
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - sets new 2016 high, watch out for bearish divergenceResistance - $48.88, $50.00, $50.89 Support - $47.79, $46.80, $45.32 Brent set a new yearly high of $48.63 in Asia is now trading around $48.44 levels. The previous 2016 high was $48.26. A negative daily closing today would confirm bearish price RSI divergence on the daily chart following an inside day Doji candle. Hence, that could open doors for a slide to $46.00 levels, where a violation would shift risk in favor of a drop to $45-43.30. On the other hand, psychological hurdle at $50.00 could be put to test if prices manage to stay above $48.26. Note the daily chart shows a ‘golden crossover’ (daily 50-MA and daily 100-MA).
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent Oil - Golden crossover confirmed, but....Resistance – 47.99, 48.26, 50.00 Support – 47.54, 46.74, 46.16 Daily chart – Possible double top formation, ‘Golden crossover’ Brent’s positive move yesterday confirmed the golden crossover – bullish crossover between daily 50-SMA and 200-SMA. Usually a laggard indicator, this time it may be different, given we are coming off from an oil price crash. But…prices are struggling to take out latest cyclical high of $48.26 (Apr 29 high). Furthermore, prices also failed to see a daily closing above $47.99 (23.6% Fibo of June 2014 high-Jan 2016 low). This coupled with the daily RSI, which is still well below its cyclical high, tells the recipe is in place for a double top /bearish price RSI divergence. Consequently, a repeated failure near $47.99 could shift risk in favor of a drop to rising trend line support currently seen around $43.30 (double top neckline). Only a convincing daily close above $47.99 would add credence to ‘golden crossover’ and create room for further upside.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - Watch out for bearish price-RSI divergenceIndication of major reversals on the charts usually come in the form of bullish/bearish price divergence with indicators (I prefer RSI). As of now, Brent is trading around $47.80. Today's high stands at $48.07, while the latest cyclical high is $48.26. Traders need to watch out for a "rise above $48.26, followed by a negative daily closing". Look at daily RSI. Despite price nearing cyclical high of $48.26, RSI is still sufficiently far away from its cyclical high. In short we have a recipe ready for a bearish price RSI divergence when price is around critical resistance levels - $47.99 (23.6% of June 2014 high-Jan 2016 low), If we get a confirmation of bearish price rsi divergence, prices could test the then "double top" neckline level of $43.30
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Caution advised as price nears 23.6% Fibo hurdleResistance - 47.99 – 48.26, 50.00, 52.55 Support – 46.97, 45.75, 44.16 Brent’s rally yesterday has pushed the hourly RSI into overbought territory at a time when prices are a few points away from $47.99 (23.6% Fibo of June 2014 high-Jan 2016 low). Hence, bulls need to observe caution as corrective move towards $47.00-46.50 cannot be ruled out. Gains towards 47.99-48.26 could be seen, although a daily close above 48.26 would add more credence to the recent bullish move and indicate recovery from Jan low has resumed. Also note – Golden crossover between 50-SMA and 200-SMA is pretty much a done deal. If prices see a daily close above 48.26 today, the golden crossover would gain credence.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil outlook – On the cusp of a golden crossoverDaily Chart Resistance – 46.27, 47.00, 48.34 Support – 44.87, 44.16, 42.40 Brent’s bullish move yesterday if followed by a break above weekly 50-MA hurdle of 45.56 could result in a rise to 46.27 (weekly high). Such a move looks possible if prices bounce-off daily 5-SMA support 44.86 levels. A break above 46.27 could see prices test supply around 47.00 (confluence of trend line levels). Short-term bearish invalidation is seen only below 42.40 (200-SMA + rising trend line support). Note – prices are on the cusp of a golden crossover between daily 50-MA and 200-MA.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - head and shoulder breakout on hourly chartPattern - Rising trend line breached, Head and Shoulder breakout Brent's bearish break from rising trend line followed by a head and shoulder breakout ...and a failed attempt to rise above neckline today indicates prices could take out daily low of $43.30 and extend losses to $42.52 (Mar 18 high). On the contrary, an hourly closing above neckline level of $44.13 could lead to sideways to positive action. On larger scheme of things, a day end closing above $45 is required to signal bearish invalidation.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Will golden crossover on Brent work?Daily Chart Resistance - $46.74, $47.42, $47.97 Support - $45.30, $44.16, $42.48 Brent’s rebound from near $44.00 levels last week has kept the hopes alive for a golden crossover - a bullish crossover between 50-SMA and 100-SMA. The question is whether this will trigger a fresh rally in oil. Golden crossover usually is a laggard indicator. But if we take into account that oil is coming off a downtrend that saw priced plunge from above $100 levels to near $30 levels, then the golden crossover gains credence. Also note, that Iran’s supply is expected to hit pre sanction levels by June, which means major powers may be able to reach some kind of an accord at June OPEC meeting. Hence, bears need to remain vigilant.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - watch out for break below daily lowBrent's daily chart shows bearish crossover between 5-SMA and 10-SMA. Hence, traders should watch out for a possible sell-of from there that may result in a break below daily low of $45.14. That would also mark a failure to sustain above the rising channel and rising trend line levels and could yield a drop to $44.16 (previous day's low). On the higher side, break above $46.16 (Apr 21 high) would be needed to mark bearish invalidation. Golden crossover The much hyped golden cross over between 50-SMA and 200-SMA could be seen if prices see a break above $46.16. This is usually a laggard indicator, however, note that we are coming off from a one-and-half year long slowdown in prices. Hence, the crossover could add credence to the possibility that long-term bottom has been made.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - Bullish invalidation on cards?Support - $43.26, $41.05 Resistance - $45.11-45.44, $46.00 Brent's failure to sustain and capitalize on a rebound from the rising trend line support earlier today followed by a break below rising trend line itself indicates bullish invalidation. A daily close below rising trend line would expose $43.26 (23.6% Fibo of Jan-April rally). Also watch out for daily RSI, which may breach 50.00 levels bringing-in more technical selling towards $41.05 levels. On the higher side, it would take a daily close back above $45.44 for the bulls to make comeback. The fall isn't surprising to us as we had noted a sudden exhaustion in the hollywood 'sell' calls and fear mongers that were totally "in form" after Doha debacle.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil retraced 50% of May 2015-Jan 2016 dropResistance - $48.34, $48.80, $50.31 Support - $47.31, $46.16, $44.90 Brent oil neared $48.34 today, which is the 50% Fibo retracement of the fall witnessed from May 2015 high to Jan 2016 low. Entire month, bears found themselves trapped on a wrong side of the trade. Oil simply shrugged off Doha debacle and repeated warnings of oversupply by analysts. Rising channel is intact on daily chart, but RSI looks overbought. Caution warranted unless clear break is seen above $48.34
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance