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Energies

WTI Oil – Inverse Head and Shoulder failureThe weekly chart clearly shows failure at the inverse head and shoulder neckline last week. More importantly, the follow through has been bearish so far, which makes matters worse for the oil bulls. A bearish weekly close below $46.25, which marks the confluence of the weekly 100-MA and rising trend line drawn from Feb low and Aug low, would signal a major trend reversal. On the higher side, only a weekly close above the neckline would signal the continuation of the larger uptrend.
TVC:USOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil sees a weak bullish breakOn the 4-hour chart, we saw a bullish break from the falling channel on Friday. However, the subsequent move has been anything but encouraging… prices failed to capitalize on the bullish break and are currently trading flat around $50.50/barrel. OPEC fails to nail deal OPEC failed to reach an agreement after hours of talks on Friday, amid objections by Iran, which has been reluctant to even freeze its output. They will meet again in Vienna on November 25 ahead of the next meeting of OPEC ministers on November 30, to "finalize individual quotas”. Technicals · Despite the bullish break from falling channel, the subsequent lack of bullish momentum in the wake of bearish OPEC news indicates prices could not only re-enter the falling channel, but could also revisit support around $49.63-$49.30. · On the higher side, only a break above $50.87 would bring in fresh buyers and open doors for $51.80-52.00 levels.
TVC:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
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Gold – Needs break above $1275Gold’s repeated failure to hold gains above $1270 questions the strength of the rebound from Oct 7 low of $1241.5 and thus open doors for a fall back to key support level of $1253, which is 23.6% of 2011 high- 2015 low. However, bullish invalidation is seen only below $1253 levels and selling interest is seen making a comeback below $1241.5 (Oct 7 low) in which case loses could be extended to $1220 levels. Such a move cannot be ruled out given the fact that the metal usually drops in the run up to US elections.
TVC:GOLD
by TipTVFinance
Oil completes inverse head and shoulderOil prices have completed inverse head and shoulder formation. On the weekly chart we can clearly see prices tested neckline level of $51.90 A successful breach of inverse head and shoulder would give us upside target of $77.70, which as of now appears over ambitious and could possible happen only if we get a bigger OPEC output cut. On the other hand, failure to reach a deal at a time would mark failure at neckline level, which in itself is a highly bearish formation.
TVC:USOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Dip demand likelyDespite the retreat in oil prices from $53.71 (Oct 10 high) to $51.40 in Asian session today, it is too early to call a top…more so because the short-term moving averages – 5-DMA and 10-DMA – are still sloping upwards and hence fresh demand could be seen around the critical support level of $51.19 (Aug 19 high). A rebound from $51.19 followed by a break above $51.65 would signal a fresh rally to previous day’s high of $52.85 and possibly to $53.00 levels.
TVC:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
WTI Oil – Eyes inverse head & shoulder necklineOil clocked one-year high and appears on track to test the inverse head and shoulder neckline level of $52.00 as there are little signs of stress on daily indicators. Whether or not we see a bullish break depends on the noise surrounding the output freeze agreement between the major producers. Also note the weekly 100-MA is yet to bottom out and still sloping downwards, hence caution is advised especially if prices move above neckline resistance. On the downside, critical support is $49.12.
TVC:USOIL
by TipTVFinance
Gold – Scope for technical recoveryGold’s recovery from the support zone of $1300-1310 in Asia following a five-day losing streak suggests the bearish momentum may have run out of steam and a break above $1313 could yield a test of $1320 levels. On the lower side, break below $1300 could yield a quick fire drop to $1284 (rising trend line support). On a larger scheme of things, we need to see at least two consecutive daily close below rising trend line would suggest bullish invalidation.
TVC:GOLD
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Symmetrical triangle on weekly chartBrent’s sharp rise from the low of $45.67 (symmetrical triangle support) last week followed by a weekly close at $50.00 indicates the prices are likely to extend gains this week and test weekly 100-MA level of $50.79 levels. However, we are unlikely to see a bullish break (weekly close) from symmetrical triangle since the weekly 100-MA is still sloping downwards. Furthermore, the news that Iran is seeking higher exports and the fact that US drilling is on the rise could cap the gains in oil prices near weekly 100-MA. On the downside, 5-WMA of $47.96 could act as a strong support.
TVC:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Sell-off likely below Asian session lowBrent’s failure to re-enter symmetrical triangle followed by a sharp sell-off to a low of $45.68 on Friday has reinforced bears and hence the uptick seen today could prove to be a trap especially if prices fail to take out 50-DMA level of $46.67 and take out Asian session low of $45.96, in which case a fresh sell-off to $44.00 levels is likely. On the higher side, only a daily close above $48.23 (Friday’s high) would suggest bearish invalidation.
TVC:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Symmetrical triangle, Kashagan field restarts producThe daily chart shows symmetrical triangle formation on the price chart and RSI. Thus, we wait for the breakout before calling a move. Algeria meeting scheduled next week is unlikely to deliver bullish results for oil price. Moreover, it is a informal meeting and the noise ahead of the meeting reminds us of the pre Doha debacle noise. Furthermore, increased oil supplies from Kashagan in Kazakhstan, Libya and Nigeria are seen destabilizing the oil market rebalancing. Kashagan oil field – Its going to be a slow ramp up There is no reason to fear about the Kashagan oil field. This is because it is going to be a slow ramp up of production. Spencer Wallace, Oil Markets Director at IHS Markit, joined us on today’s London open Finance Show. He talked about the Kashagan project, threats to oil market rebalancing and Algeria meeting. Check out the full video here - www.youtube.com
TVC:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance