Get started

Energies

UK Oil - re-test of falling wedge supportBrent's retreat on Wednesday accompanied by a comparatively higher volumes suggests the Tuesday's rise was nothing more than short covering and the prices could extend the retreat to falling wedge support at around $45.60. The repeated failure to take out 5-DMA since Asia adds credence to the bearish view. On the higher side, only a day end closing above $48.21 accompanied by volumes higher than that seen on Tuesday would suggest a short-term bottom has been made and could yield test of falling wedge resistance.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - Falling Wedge, ping pong between $40-$50 to continueThe daily chart clearly shows all three rising trend line have been breached and prices are now moving in a falling wedge formation. Tuesday's move a trap? We had almost 5% gain yesterday mainly driven by bullish comments by the OPEC in its monthly report. Volume chart says the major part of the gains were due to profit taking on shorts. Volumes on Tuesday remained very low - well below 50-day moving average level. Note, the volumes last Thursday when prices suffered a bearish break from rising trend line were on the of the highest in recent times. The message is clear - Bulls would need a bullish break from falling wedge accompanied by a sharp rise in volumes. Oil market rebalancing at risk? Gaurav Sharma, an oil market expert was on our Finance show (www.youtube.com) where he presented a compelling case for expecting oil prices to remain within a range of $40-$50. The message that comes through from Sharma's comments is that a move above recent highs is unlikely any time soon as the glut in the gasoline and distillates has put oil market rebalancing at risk. However, the resulting downside due glut in the gasoline.distillates and weak global demand growth forecasts should not be beyond $40, unless we have a major banking crisis in Europe.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Needs another positive daily closingBrent’s sharp rally on Tuesday, though a welcome news, needs to gain credence via another bullish daily closing preferably above the rising trend line hurdle (blue), in which case it would suggest bearish invalidation and that a short-term bottom is in place at $45.88/barrel. A bullish daily closing today above rising trend line (blue) could yield a test of supply around $50.50 (sideways channel hurdle). On the other hand, a failure to sustain above $48.34 (50% of May 2015 high – Jan 2016 low) on Tuesday if followed by a similar action in Europe today would open doors for a slide to $47.03 (5-DMA) - $46.75 (23.6% of 27.08-52.83).
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent – increased odds of a reboundResistance - $46.75, $47.39, $48.34 Support - $46.32-46.13, $44.81, $44.17 Brent’s repeated failure to remain below channel support if followed by a break above $46.75 (23.6% of Jan low – June high) would open doors for $48.34 (50% of May 2015 high – Jan 2016 low). Such a move on day end closing basis would suggest a short-term bottom is in place at $46.13. On the lower side, a day end closing basis below $46.13 would suggest the retreat from June top has resumed and prices then could drop to 100-DMA support of $44.82.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Bearish daily closingResistance - $46.75, $47.56, $48.34 Support - $46.13, $44.66, $43.32-42.99 Brent’s breach of all three rising trend lines on daily closing basis followed by a day end closing below $46.75 (23.6% of Jan low – June high) suggests the short-term tide has turned in favor of bears and prices could be heading towards 38.2% Fibo located at $42.99. The daily RSI has turned bearish, which adds credence to the bearish view. Furthermore, it is observed that a breach of 23.6% is usually followed by a test of 38.2% Fibo. As for today, failure to sustain above $46.75 (23.6% Fibo) followed by a break below previous day’s low of $46.13 could yield a drop to 50-DMA level of $44.66 levels. On the higher side, only a day end closing today above $48.34 (rising trend line resistance- blue) would suggest bearish invalidation.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - bullish move to gather pace above daily high Brent’s sharp rebound from the low of $47.15 yesterday followed by a daily closing well above the rising trend line (blue) suggests the corrective move from the resistance level of $51 may have ended. A rebound from the 50-DMA level of $48.80 today if followed by a break above the daily high of $49.24 would add credence to previous day’s rally and open doors for $50.20 (rising trend line - red). On the other hand, only a day end closing below rising trend line – blue support stationed at $48.34 would signal the drop from $51 has resumed again.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Bears in control, eyeing key supportResistance - $48.34, $48.73, $49.38 Support - $47.52, $46.75, $44.91 Oil’s failure to sustain below previous session low of $47.52 despite bearish break below rising trend line (blue) in Asia indicates prices could make an attempt at $48.34 (50% of May 2015 high – Jan 2016 low). a break higher would expose 50-DMA at $48.73-49.00 levels. On the other hand, a failure to take out $48.34 followed by a move back below $47.52 would open doors for a slide to $46.75 (23.6% of Jan low – June high).
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Bears reinforcedBrent’s retreat on Monday followed by a break below the rising trend line (red) today has opened doors for test of daily 50-MA of $48.63 levels. Moreover, the daily chart now has falling top formation in the place. This coupled with a daily closing below rising trend line (red) today would strengthen the bears. However, bears should watch out for a rebound and a break above Asian session high of $50.07 as such a move could yield $50.85. Only a day end close above $50.85 would signal bearish invalidation as it would breach falling top formation.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – watch out for a rebound from hourly rising trend linResistance - $50.99 (ysday’s high), $51.22 (June 22 high), $52.83 (recent high) Support - $49.93, $49.48 (hourly 200-MA), $48.61 Brent’s rebound from 5-DMA followed by a rebound from a hourly rising trend line support indicates prices could make another go at yesterday’s high of $50.99. Further gains need a day end closing above $50.99, in which case the recent high of $52.83 could be put to test next week. On the other hand, a breach of rising trend line support would open doors for a slide to hourly 200-MA level of $48.48.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - $48.34 is a strong support todaySupport - $48.34 (50% of May 2015 high-Jan 2016 low + 50-DMA), $47.30, $46.75 Resistance - $49.05, $49.82, $50.30 Brent’s exhaustion near rising trend line (red) followed by a break below 5-DMA indicates prices could be heading towards confluence of support at $48.34 (% of May 2015 high-Jan 2016 low + 50-DMA). A violation there would expose rising trend line (blue) level of $47.30. On the higher side, prices need to take out $49.05 (rising trend line – red) on daily closing basis as that would add credence to a Monday’s rebound from rising trendline (blue) and open doors for $50.30 (falling trend line resistance).
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Trapped between 50% Fibo and rising trend lineResistance - $48.34, $48.94-49.09, $49.81-50.00 Support - $47.45, $46.92, $46.16 Prices ticked higher in Asia as strike in Norway threatened to cut supply. As of now prices appear trapped between $48.34 (50% of May 2015 high – Jan 2016 low) and rising trend line support at $46.92 (trend line drawn from Jan low and Feb low). Exhaustion around $48.00 in Asia today following a failure to sustain above $48.34 yesterday indicates prices could once again test rising trend line support at $46.92. A day end closing below $46.92 would mark a major trend reversal. On the higher side, a break above $48.34 would expose middle rising trend line hurdle at $49.19. A daily closing above $49.19 would signal bearish invalidation.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Retakes rising trend lineResistance - $50.89, $52.43, $52.83 Support - $50.73 (rising trend line – black), $49.82, $48.62 Brent’s daily closing back above rising trend line – black indicates a temporary bottom is in place at $46.92 and prices could move higher to $52.43 - $52.83 levels if today’s closing is above rising trend line – black as well. On the other hand, repeated failure to take out $50.89 followed by a hourly closing below $50.73 would open doors for a re-test of $50 - $49.82 levels.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - Re-test of 5-DMA appears likely Brent's failure to take out black rising trend line if followed by a break below $50.00 levels despite bullish inventory report from market intelligence firm Genscape would open doors for a drop to 5-DMA level of $49.00 levels. Breach of 5-DMA would expose support at $48.34. On the higher side, rising trend line (black) if breached on day end closing basis would signal continuation of rally from Thursday's low and would shift risk in favor of a re-test of $52.83 (latest cyclical high).
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Gold- head and shoulder and possible Cypher Resistance- $1288, $1293, $1303 Support- $1283, $1278-1276, $1263 Gold's turn lower from the higher of $1294 levels led to formation of lower top formation and added credence to the possibility of head and shoulder breakout on the hourly chart. The neckline at $1278 could be pierced thus opening doors for a drop to support t $1263 (which could be point C of Cypher pattern from where a fresh bullish move could happen). On the other hand, a failure to dip below $1283 followed by a break above $1294 would open doors for a rise to $1300-1303 levels.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
2
Bullish prospects for US crude oilUS oil has retaken rising trend line resistance and the bulls have another feather in their cap- bullish crossover between daily 100-MA and 200-MA. Bullish crossover or golden crossover between daily 50-MA and 200-MA already happened in early May. From there if prices manage to see two consecutive daily closing above rising trend line, the odds of a move higher to leg D of Cypher around $54.70 would rise. On the other hand, failure to sustain above rising trend line followed by a bearish break below daily 50-MA (seen today at $46.35) would open doors for a drop to $43.00 levels.
FX:USOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil - 23.6% Fibo support remains intactBrent looks poised to end higher after six-day losing streak. Prices retreated from high of $52.83 to a low of $46.92 yesterday before rising to $48.40 levels today. Prices looked poised to test and break $46.75 (23.6% of 27.08-52.83) yesterday, but the correction seen today ensured the support remains intact. Prices are also back above rising trend line (red). Outlook Day end closing above $48.34 (50% of May 2015 high - Jan 2016 high) would open doors for a re-test of rising trend line hurdle (black). On the other hand, failure to take out $48.34 followed by a break below rising trend line red) would once again shift risk in favor of a breach of support at $46.75 (23.6% of 27.08-52.83). Day end closing below $46.75 would expose rising trend line - blue
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance