Trade the Crude OIl Range Shorts and Longs Crude oil perspective going into Inventories data highlighting solid levels for longs and shorts
Energy Commodities
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The NASDAQ closed higher, supported by the 3-day moving average on the daily chart. After a recent surge, it has reached the upper Bollinger Band, with both the MACD and signal line crossing above the zero line, confirming a buy signal. However, due to the sharp rally, there is potential for a pullback today. If the price retraces to the 5-day moving average, it could consolidate within a range, allowing moving averages to converge.
Should the NASDAQ fall further, the key question is whether it will fill the gap near 21700. If the gap remains unfilled and the price breaks higher, the daily buy signal would stay intact, potentially accelerating bullish momentum.
On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal remains active despite a rebound. Selling at higher levels is preferable, while watching if the MACD avoids falling below the zero line and instead forms a golden cross with the signal line. Focus on dip-buying and selling at resistance, keeping the potential for a pullback to the 5-day moving average in mind.
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil closed lower, falling below the $75 level. It ended near the midpoint of the large bullish candle from January 10 ($74.66) after further downside pressure. This week’s decline reflects President Trump’s push to lower oil prices.
Currently, crude is near the 20-day moving average and within the $74–$75 support zone, which aligns with the weekly 5-day moving average. This area is suitable for swing trading and dip-buying strategies.
On the daily chart, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, creating a short-term sell signal. However, the significant divergence from the zero line suggests that crude may consolidate with bullish candles before attempting another upward move.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has not yet formed a golden cross with the signal line, but selling pressure has weakened significantly. If a golden cross occurs, a strong rebound could follow. Avoid chasing shorts and focus on buying dips at key levels.
GOLD
Gold rebounded from key support levels, closing flat with a lower wick on the daily candle. The daily chart shows that bullish momentum remains strong, making dip-buying at major support levels the preferred strategy.
Gold touched the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart before pulling back, indicating that a clear trend may not emerge until next week.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal formed at the recent high, with the MACD divergence leading to a sharp decline. While the price is recovering, the sell signal remains active, increasing the likelihood of another pullback.
Gold appears to be consolidating within a range, building energy for the next leg higher. Today, focus on box-range trading with selling at resistance and buying at support. Be mindful of major economic data releases before the main session, and manage risks carefully. Best of luck with your trades, and have a successful end to the week!
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Bullish Market
-Buy: 21980 / 21910 / 21870 / 21790 / 21720
-Sell: 22040 / 22075 / 22110
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 74.10 / 73.40 / 73.00 / 72.40
-Sell: 75.10 / 75.70 / 76.20 / 76.75 / 77.10
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy: 2750 / 2743 / 2737 / 2731
-Sell: 2770 / 2774 / 2779 / 2785
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
SELL USOILBeen a while since I last posted.
Today's trade is on OIL, you can sell and target the LQ zone I targeted and set the same SL as mine.
Follow for more!
WTI OIL Channel Up emerging, aiming at $90.WTI Oil (USOIL) recently broke above its 15-month Lower Highs trend-line that has been keeping it under a bearish trend and is now naturally pulling back. This technical pull-back is so far within the tolerance levels of a bullish trend.
The pattern that making use of this trend is a Channel Up, newly emerged and now about to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support for the first time since August 14 2024. As long as it holds, we expect the new Bullish Leg to start and as with the Jan - Apr 2024 Channel Up, rise towards the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is quite below it at $90.00.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USO/USD is falling towards the support level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 75.03
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 73.03
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 77.44
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Natural Gas on the Move! Is the Next Big Breakout Coming? 📈 Bullish Analysis: Natural Gas (Spot)
1️⃣ Uptrend Support Holding Firm:
The price is respecting the uptrend support line, which has acted as a strong foundation for bullish momentum. Multiple bounces off this level signal that buyers are stepping in to defend the trend.
2️⃣ Supply Zone in Focus:
The supply zone between 4.4 and 4.48 represents a key resistance area. A break and close above this zone would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.
3️⃣ RSI Rebound:
The RSI is bouncing off oversold levels and turning upward, indicating renewed bullish momentum. This aligns with the trendline support, suggesting the potential for further upside.
4️⃣ Key Insights:
Natural Gas has formed a clean technical setup, with the trendline support, supply zone, and RSI alignment all pointing toward a bullish reversal.
If the price holds above 3.88 and momentum continues, buyers could push toward the supply zone targets.
🎯 Strategy:
Entry: Current levels near 3.88–3.92.
TP1: 4.00 (First Resistance)
TP2: 4.18 (Midpoint).
TP3: 4.40 (Beginning of Supply Zone).
US oil for today and tomorrow US OIL is taking pullback, it is not in bearish sentiment, wait for the levels and again up side, here is the levels for today and tomorrow session.
I am not SEBI REGISTERED analist, This is my personal view only for education purpose .
Buy OIL 71$ - 74$ zoneOil needs a temporary rest after the rapid pump it had. This rest is somewhere between $71 and $74. Since the oil trend is still bullish, it is not easy to enter the trade. It is reasonable to wait for the trend correction. The first definite target for oil according to the chart ahead is $82. However, in my opinion, the great oil cycle has begun to grow again and it has goals of close to $170 to $200 in the future. However, it is better to consider short-term goals. The final point, based on the analysis ahead, is that oil will definitely see a price of $100 again in the next few months.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Buy opportunity on the bottom trendline.WTI Crude Oil remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.480, MACD = 1.830, ADX = 66.542) despite the 4 day selling streak, which pushed the price under the 4H MA50. The HL trendline is still intact though, so technically that is a sound buy opportunity, especially if the 1D RSI hits the 30.000 oversold level. We're bullish (TP = 86.00).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go long on USOIL right now from the support line below with the target of 79.40 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general uptrend on the previous 1W candle and the oversold situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the lower BB band.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
USOIL Will Move Higher! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 75.561.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 82.488 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
WTI | Selloff Back to $68 w/USD/JPY CorrelationSince the last call on Oil we successfully hit the $77 target.
This next move is now looking to head back to $68 support based on the pivot moves within the current Descending Triangle pattern.
This is also another opportunity to take a back-to-back swing on FX:USDJPY
We got divergence on the forex pair acting like the 'price' and 'oil' acting like the indication
(Convergence/Divergence)
Oil moves first on the down move and usdjpy will follow through after it makes one more leg up.
KOLD: Potential Reversal Play Near Demand ZoneInstrument: ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD)
Timeframe: 4H Heikin Ashi
The ETF has been in a downtrend, characterized by a descending trend line connecting the lower highs.
Recent price action suggests an early breakout above the descending trend line, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
Stochastic RSI also shows oversold conditions with a bullish crossover forming, indicating momentum may favor an upward move.
Sector Rotation:
Recent trends suggest the energy sector is undergoing a sector rotation as market participants focus on cyclical and value stocks, especially in commodities like natural gas. This aligns with a potential upside for KOLD in the short term.
Trump Policy Influence:
With renewed attention on energy policies influenced by Trump's stance on energy independence and deregulation, investor sentiment in the energy sector is expected to shift. This policy backdrop could provide additional momentum for a bullish move.
Entry: ~ $33.72
Stop Loss: Below $26.70 (demand zone distal line).
Targets:
$34.01 (short-term target, RRR ~2:1).
$42.79 (mid-term target, RRR ~4:1).
$48.68 (long-term target, RRR ~6:1).
Position size: Risk no more than 1–2% of account balance per trade.
Supply Zones:
Supply Zones identified at $42.79, $48.68, and $63.22, providing potential take-profit areas for bullish trades.
A major resistance at $78.83, marking the upper boundary for a long-term bullish trend.
Demand Zone:
Significant Demand Zone in the $26.73–$27.78 range, a critical area for potential price reversal .
Disclaimer:
This idea is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. You are solely responsible for your actions and decisions.
WTI Bullish Wedge FlagUSoil It got nice Bullish Wedge Flag Better to Long than Short
I don't know what you wanna do also I don't care
but that what am gonna do
be carful from Wicks it may touch 73 price
Trade Safe
Dollar down, Metals, Miners, Crude Up! SPX new high, Bitcoin???Premarket US dollar down while precious metals and mining stocks get a bid higher. SPX closes above 6118$ making new record high. Crude oil gets a minor bounce, can it retrace to $77? What is Bitcoin doing next? Will it close higher or sell off from here? That is the question.
Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!): Setting New LimitsWe’ve been patiently waiting for an entry at $58, but the market hasn’t reached our level. After reassessing the chart, we believe it’s now more profitable to play CL1! as a long following what appears to have been a fake breakout.
Recent developments, including Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency to “unlock the liquid gold under our feet” and prioritize U.S. oil and gas development, could bolster bullish sentiment in the energy sector.
If our wave count is correct, we are currently in intra wave 2 of wave ((iii)). If this setup holds, a target of at least $115 seems achievable. We are placing our limit order and will patiently wait to get filled.
Key Levels at the moment:
Support Zone: $67.70–$64.40
Resistance Zone: $85–$88
Brent - What will Trump's oil policies be?!Brent oil is in the 4-hour timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its medium-term ascending channel. We will look for oil selling opportunities on the supply zone. If the $75 level is broken, we can see the continuation of the downtrend. On the other hand, we can buy in the demand zone with a risk-reward approach.
When Donald Trump launched his election campaign, he threatened to impose 25% tariffs on America’s largest trading partners unless they addressed their trade surpluses with the U.S. Analysts described this idea as risky. However, Bloomberg has reported that, while this strategy is far from subtle, it has proven effective.
This threat turned importers into U.S. customers. Energy importers from Asian countries began purchasing more crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, aiming to appease Trump before he took any action on tariffs.
Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, told Bloomberg that U.S. trading partners view LNG purchases as a tool for negotiating tariffs with the Trump administration. He added that since last November’s election, orders for U.S. energy shipments have risen.
Shortly after the election, Trump specifically suggested that the European Union should buy more LNG from the U.S. to offset its significant trade surplus. At the time, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated there was no reason why the EU couldn’t replace Russian LNG with American liquefied gas. However, her statement was perhaps not the most well-considered.
The EU’s preference for Russian LNG and its hesitation toward American LNG primarily stems from pricing issues. Even this year, the region’s purchases of Russian LNG have reached record levels. As reported by the Financial Times earlier this week, the EU is highly sensitive to price considerations. According to an EU official, price remains a critical and determining factor.
Bernd Lange, head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, previously remarked that Europe’s demand for LNG could align with America’s eagerness to sell more.He added that discussions on this issue are feasible. Trump has consistently emphasized his interest in deals that benefit the United States above all.
On his first day in office, Trump revoked Biden’s executive order that halted permits for new LNG export capacity. This decision will expand U.S. export capacity over the next four years, potentially lowering prices depending on demand levels.
The World Trade Organization’s chief warned that reciprocal tariff retaliation could result in a double-digit reduction in global GDP, a scenario that would have catastrophic consequences.
2025-01-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Pretty much tapped out of this market at the moment. I thought it looked decent that we could bottom out at 75 but another strong spike down to 74.5 is wild.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 73 - 80
bull case: Bulls have their do or die moment at 73 tomorrow. Either bottom out or we likely see 70 next. The buying was so climactic upwards but now it’s the same for the selling. Tough market for me. Got honestly nothing for the bulls until they print higher highs again and trade consecutive 1h bars above 76.5.
Invalidation is below 75.
bear case: Bears just took this over from the high and we are selling every little rip. Amazing to see but I still think it’s tough to trade. I won’t turn bear now right at the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Below 74 we could test 72 next and afterwards there is no more support until 70.
Invalidation is above 76.5.
short term: Either it finds support at the daily 20ema around 74 or it might es will just continue down to 70 again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Shorting 76 has been profitable since Tuesday.
Prime Buying Opportunity for Crude Oil Nearing
Crude oil is currently consolidating around the $75 level. A glance at the daily MACD reveals a close but no crossover of the MACD and signal lines. A bearish close today could signal a downturn, but a bullish close would likely see the MACD resume its upward trend.
Since its correction from $79, the price has been holding above the midpoint of the January 10th bullish candle at $74.66. This level, also coinciding with the 5-day moving average on the weekly chart, is a crucial support zone. Given the significant volume accumulated in the first week of January, this presents a compelling opportunity for aggressive swing trading.
Today's oil inventory report is expected to act as a catalyst for a bullish reversal. While the market is bearish on oil supply expansion due to Trump's election, technical analysis suggests further upside potential. We recommend adopting a buy-on-dip strategy.
For daily insights into Nasdaq, oil, and gold, please follow and subscribe to my analysis.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The NASDAQ closed higher on news of President Trump’s plans to expand AI investments. It surged strongly to the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, lifting the MACD above the zero line. However, a gap formed due to Netflix's earnings report, and there is a possibility that this gap could be filled during future corrections.
While the signal line remains below the zero line on the daily chart, indicating the potential for a pullback, strong buying momentum on the 240-minute chart suggests the NASDAQ could rise further to the 22200–22300 zone. A sell-off might emerge only if the MACD on the 240-minute chart dead crosses the signal line, signaling a shift to a bearish trend. There is also upside potential to 22250, the upper boundary of the weekly chart, so it's wise to keep this level in mind.
For now, focus on buying dips, but keep an eye on the transition from an uptrend (positive alignment) to a downtrend (negative alignment) on the short-term charts. If the 240-minute MACD dead crosses, it could signal a correction, so monitor the price movements closely.
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil closed lower, consolidating in a box range near the $75 level. The large bullish candle from January 10 serves as a key reference point, with the midpoint of that candle acting as a support level.
For a rebound on the daily chart, a bullish candle needs to form. Currently, the MACD is closely aligned with the signal line. If the MACD avoids a dead cross and turns upward, there’s a high chance of a third bullish wave. Keep an eye on the upcoming crude oil inventory data to see if it triggers a trend reversal.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is attempting to cross above the signal line in the oversold zone, showing a potential for a rebound. With prolonged consolidation around $75, a strong upward move could follow any breakout. Avoid chasing shorts, and if the price drops to $74, it could provide a great buying opportunity.
GOLD
Gold closed higher, breaking above the 2760 resistance level. This breakout opens the possibility of further gains to the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart, around 2780. However, the divergence between the MACD and the signal line on the weekly chart makes a further golden cross less likely, meaning a correction could occur in the next week or two.
On the daily chart, the bullish trend remains strong, making it advisable to avoid short positions. The 240-minute chart shows a third bullish wave following a golden cross of the MACD, supporting further gains. Ideally, continued strength above 2780 would prevent a divergence from forming on the MACD, which could lead to a sharp decline if unaddressed.
For now, use 2760 as support and focus on range-bound trading while monitoring for a potential breakout above key levels. Always be prepared for volatility and manage risk carefully.
Positive market momentum is being driven by new government policies and plans, including tariffs, the Stargate Project, and expanded AI infrastructure investments. These developments could act as catalysts for further gains. Stay updated on these issues, and as always, manage your risks carefully. Best of luck with your trading today!
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21920 / 21870 / 21790 / 21720
-Sell: 22035 / 22075 / 22135 / 22230
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 75.10 / 74.70 / 74.30 / 73.60
-Sell: 75.70 / 76.20 / 76.75 / 77.10
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy: 2759 / 2754 / 2748 / 2738
-Sell: 2771 / 2778 / 2783 / 2794
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
WTI could see another push to $80Upward trend with a bullish wedge break. Support is at around $75 and target is at around $80. If we see prices well below $75 this trade is invalidated. But do not put your SL to close below the support.
WTI - The fate of oil with Trump's policies?!WTI oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable risk reward will be provided for us.
The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has stated that China’s crude oil production is expected to increase by 1% by 2025, reaching 215 million tons. Additionally, China’s crude oil imports are projected to grow by 1%, reaching 559 million tons.
The CEO of Aramco has noted that robust demand from China will continue to drive global oil demand growth. He predicts that oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025.
Donald Trump, the President of the United States, has directed his administration to revoke the “Executive Order on Electric Vehicles.” This move aims to roll back regulations on vehicle emissions and fuel efficiency standards, which he claims unfairly restrict consumer choice.
This directive, part of a broader executive order focused on energy, also calls on regulators to consider “eliminating unfair subsidies and other misguided government interventions that favor electric vehicles over other technologies and effectively mandate their purchase.”
On Monday, President Trump signed several energy-related executive orders, declaring a “National Energy Emergency” and launching measures heavily favoring fossil fuel development and production. These actions are seen as a blow to the energy policies of the previous administration under Joe Biden, which aimed to bolster the renewable energy sector. The new executive orders focus on boosting domestic energy production and lowering consumer costs.
In December, energy prices rose, contributing to overall inflation. Key drivers of the fuel price increases included:
• Colder-than-expected winter weather,
• Supply concerns driven by sanctions and geopolitical conflicts,
• Optimism about demand stimulation from China.
Pilot Company, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, has decided to cease its international oil and fuel trading operations. This decision comes after months of restructuring and the dismissal of many traders.
The President of the Petroleum Association of Japan has stated that despite Trump’s policies, uncertainty remains regarding increased oil and LNG production by U.S. energy developers. He also noted that there is little likelihood of an immediate increase in oil imports from the U.S., as Japan prefers to maintain a stable supply of crude oil from the Middle East, which is more compatible with Japanese refineries.
WTI Oil H4 | Rising into overlap resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 77.20 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 78.77 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 74.85 which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
