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Crude Oil - The Manipulation of Trend LinesIn this example on Crude Oil I give some insight into how trendlines and traditional support & resistance theories may be used by "smart money" for the purposes of facilitating their positions via inducing liquidity. Basically, trendlines are drawn along the highs or lows of price movements and help to identify the direction and strength of a trend. They serve as visual guidelines for traders, highlighting potential turning points or continuation patterns. Support and resistance levels are areas where the price historically finds a floor or ceiling, leading many market participants to place their entry and exit orders around these zones. Because these levels are based on historical price action, they hold significant psychological value among retail traders. The Mechanism of Liquidity Manipulation Liquidity Pools and Stop Loss Clusters: Retail traders often cluster their stop losses near prominent support or resistance levels. Smart money is aware of these liquidity pools and can engineer price moves to trigger these stops. For example, by intentionally nudging the price through a known support level, institutional players can trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders. This “stop run” injects a burst of liquidity into the market, which can then be absorbed as positions are liquidated at less favorable prices for retail traders. False Breakouts and Reversals: Another common tactic involves creating false breakouts. A price move that breaks above a resistance level (or below a support level) might initially appear to signal a new trend. However, smart money can deliberately drive prices just past these technical barriers to trigger stop-loss orders and entry orders. Once sufficient liquidity is collected from the triggered orders, they may reverse the move. This reversal traps traders who anticipated a sustained breakout, leaving them with positions that quickly turn against them. Exploiting Herd Behavior and Market Sentiment: The widespread reliance on technical analysis means that many traders have similar expectations about where price will reverse or accelerate. This collective mindset, or herd behavior, creates predictable zones of liquidity. Smart money can capitalize on these self-fulfilling prophecies by anticipating the mass reaction around key trendlines and support/resistance levels. They use this insight to position themselves ahead of the crowd, executing large trades that move the market in their favor. Strategic Benefits for Smart Money By manipulating these common technical levels, smart money participants can: Maximize Efficiency: Accumulate or distribute large positions with minimal market impact by tapping into pre-existing liquidity pools. Control Market Direction: Influence short-term price movements to create advantageous conditions for larger trades. Enhance Risk-Reward Profiles: Trigger stop losses at critical junctures, effectively reducing their own risk while capitalizing on forced exits from retail traders. Conclusion While trendlines and support/resistance are invaluable tools for assessing market structure and potential price movements, they also serve as instruments for liquidity manipulation by experienced market participants. The predictable nature of stop-loss placements and entry orders around these levels creates opportunities for smart money to trigger cascades of orders, generating liquidity in their favor. As a result, retail traders must be aware of these dynamics and consider them when planning their trades, acknowledging that what appears to be a genuine breakout may, in fact, be a carefully orchestrated move to capture liquidity. This nuanced understanding highlights the double-edged nature of technical analysis tools in modern trading. By appreciating both their utility and potential for manipulation, traders can better navigate the complex interplay between market psychology and institutional strategy.
TVC:USOIL
by Road_2_Funded
1
BRENT weaker after inventories and tariffs expectationsThe BRENT Crude (Brent Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 7444, 13th and 24th February swing low level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7444 level could target the downside support at 7245 followed by 7134 and 7050levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7444 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7530 resistance followed by 7640 levels. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:BRENT
by TradeNation
USOIL Will Grow! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 69.17. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 75.12 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:USOILLong
by SignalProvider
1
WTI - Will Oil Return to the Uptrend?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving within its medium-term descending channel. If the downward trend continues towards the demand range, the next opportunity to buy oil with a risk-reward ratio will be provided for us. An upward correction of oil towards the supply range will provide us with an opportunity to sell it. Despite markets showing resilience to geopolitical uncertainties following recent tensions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, any signs of economic weakness in the United States could prompt investors to raise their expectations for interest rate cuts. However, even if inflation data does not reinforce such expectations, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar. In the United States, inflation remains a major challenge for the Federal Reserve. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3% in January, dashing hopes for two rate cuts in 2025. However, the market’s reaction was not overly negative, as investors anticipated that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which the Federal Reserve prioritizes, would be less severe than the CPI. According to the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s Nowcast model, the core PCE index fell from 2.8% to 2.7% in January, while the overall PCE rate declined to 2.5%. If the actual data released on Friday aligns with these projections and no unexpected increases appear in the monthly figures, expectations for two 0.25% rate cuts may strengthen, exerting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, U.S.President Joe Biden attempted to foster freer elections in Venezuela by extending an offer of cooperation, but this initiative failed. Now, Trump has announced that he will terminate this policy. He also noted that Venezuela is refusing to take back illegal migrants who had arrived in the U.S. This agreement, which had eased sanctions on oil, gas, and gold, was partially revoked in April 2024 after opposition candidate María Corina Machado was barred from running in the presidential election. Trump wrote on Truth Social: “We hereby revoke the concessions that corrupt Joe Biden granted to Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela regarding the oil deal dated November 26, 2022, as well as the electoral conditions in Venezuela, which the Maduro regime has failed to meet. Additionally, the regime has not returned the violent criminals it sent to our great America as quickly as promised. Therefore, I am ordering that Biden’s ineffective and unmet concessions be revoked as of the March 1 extension date.” Today, Trump escalated his stance on Venezuela by canceling Chevron’s oil license. This move was prompted by Caracas’s refusal to accept deportees and implement democratic reforms. President Trump announced that he would revoke the Biden-era license that had allowed Chevron to produce oil in Venezuela. This decision appears to be a significant setback for Chevron, the American oil giant. On his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump stated that he would rescind the license granted on November 26, 2022, which had permitted Chevron to operate in Venezuela.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
WTI Oil H4 | Intense bearish momentumWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 69.58 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 70.40 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 68.42 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
WTI Crude Oil at Critical Support – Rebound Toward 72$?TVC:USOIL has reached a key demand zone, which has historically provided strong support. The recent decline has brought the price back into this area, increasing the probability of a bullish reaction if buyers step in. The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms support at this level, we could see a rebound toward 72$, aligning with a corrective move after the recent sell-off. However, a break below this demand zone would invalidate the bullish bias and could lead to further downside. Traders should watch for bullish confirmation signals, such as rejection wicks, bullish engulfing candles, or increased buying volume, before considering long positions. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
TVC:USOILLong
by DanieIM
1
WTI CRUDE OIL: Approaching the 2year Buy Zone.WTI Crude Oil turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.899, MACD = -0.720, ADX = 32.215) failing to cross above the 1D MA50 last Thursday and eventually getting rejected to today's low. This low just hit the HL trendline of September and is about to enter the S1 Zone that has been holding since March 2023. Every breach inside this Zone has been the best long term buy opportunity on WTI. Until the Zone breaks, we will treat it as the best buy entry, aiming at the LH Zone (TP = 77.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
WTI Crude Oil CL Futures Weekly Plan AnalysisNYMEX:CL1! In this tradingview blog, we will refer to our February 18, 2025 weekly trade plan for NYMEX WTI CL futures . Last week, we outlined two potential scenarios, with our primary scenario playing out—though not exactly as expected. Prices reversed lower more sharply than anticipated, offering minimal pullbacks on the 4-hour timeframe. However, when analyzing the hourly chart, our plan aligned well, as prices ultimately reverted to key LIS/yearly open bull support, which also confluences with the 2025 VAL. We highlighted the following key levels: 2025 mcVPOC: 72.82 Feb 2025 mcVAH: 72.48 2025 mcVAL: 70.56 Yearly Open/ LIS: 70.52 Key Bull Support/ Confluence Zone: 70.52 - 70.12 Scenario 1 stated “Range bound week ahead.” We noted the following: “In this scenario we expect range bound price action contained within Feb 2025 micro composite Value Area.” Consistency is key in everything we do. We are creatures of habit. Energy flows where attention goes. We provide these weekly plans to traders and the wider public to showcase that, instead of strategy hopping, a trader can achieve consistency by sticking to one approach. If that approach is not working, perhaps it is time to go back to the drawing board. Whether that be backtesting, walk-forward optimization or incorporating key market statistics that you have gathered and observed. The goal of these weekly plans is to provide you with a structured roadmap that you can adapt to your own trading style. In our experience, while there are many ways to approach the market—whether through different indicators or methods for drawing levels and plans—staying consistent in your approach often leads to identifying similar key levels. Volume, price and time leave behind footprints. Although they do not provide a certain future, they can help you stay grounded, accepting the random nature of the markets, thinking in terms of probabilities and perhaps learning more so you can also gain similar insights. As Bruce Lee said, “I do not fear a man who practiced different kicks a thousand times. I would fear a man who practiced the same kick a thousand times.”
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
USOIL: Energy channel sanctions lifted? Oil price drops?The news will be explosive news in the New York market. The market is about to fall sharply. 1. The European Union has suspended sanctions on Syria's energy and transportation sectors. 2. Iraq's oil minister said that oil exports from the Kurdish region will resume within a week. 3. BP CEO will abandon his promise to cut oil and gas production. The news will be explosive news in the New York market. The market is about to fall sharply. The current oil price is around 70.6, observing from the overall trend. It is still in the downward channel. The support below is loose. According to the Williams indicator, the probability of continued decline in the short term exceeds 95.6%. After breaking the 70 integer level, it will move closer to the price of 69.5 again. Operation idea: short selling. Recommended USOIL: sell at the current price. TP: 71, TP: 69.5-69
TVC:USOILShort
by Confident_Step
Go long crude oilDear Traders, Currently, crude oil continues its downward trend, though the pace of its decline has moderated, showing signs of bottoming out. Moreover, oil has now pulled back to the critical support zone around the 68 level. Should oil fail to decisively break below this support, a technical rebound could occur at any moment. Additionally, with oil’s relatively low valuation, it becomes increasingly attractive in the market. For short-term trades, I favor initiating long positions on crude oil, with an initial target of a rebound toward the 69.5-70.5 zone, which seems well within reach.Bros, profits are the ultimate goal in trading. Accumulating profits is what changes lives and destinies. Choosing wisely is far more important than just working hard. If you want to replicate trade signals and earn stable profits, or if you want to deeply learn the correct trading logic and techniques, you can consider joining the channel at the bottom of this article!
TVC:USOILLong
by Trader_Marvin
WTI INTRADAY fears of slower energy demandEIA Crude Oil Inventories due in 3 hours, (15.30 GMT). A forecast is for 2.4M, the previous figure was 4.63M. The WTI Crude (US Light Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 7060, the 13th February swing low level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7060 level could target the downside support at 6850 followed by 6800 and 6715 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7060 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7145 resistance followed by 7194 levels. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:WTI
by TradeNation
US Oil Market Outlook: Bearish Momentum Indicate Further DeclineThe 4-hour chart of WTI Crude Oil (TVC: USOIL) reveals a well-defined market structure transition from bullish to bearish. Initially, the price action exhibited a strong uptrend, characterized by the formation of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). However, a break of structure (BOS) marked the onset of a reversal, leading to the emergence of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL), confirming the shift to a downtrend. A key technical observation is the presence of a price gap near the highest point, which often signifies inefficiency in the market and the potential for price retracements in the future. Furthermore, the highlighted resistance zone around the $72.49–$73.50 range has proven to be a strong supply area, repeatedly rejecting bullish attempts to break above it. This resistance, coupled with price trading below the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, reinforces the bearish bias. The price has now breached the $71.78 level, accelerating downward momentum. The next significant area of interest lies at the identified support level around $69.36, which serves as the primary target area. If selling pressure remains dominant, further declines may be anticipated. Volume analysis further substantiates the bearish outlook, as recent price drops have been accompanied by increased selling activity. The combination of structural shifts, resistance validation, and moving average positioning strongly suggests that the downward trajectory is likely to persist unless the price reclaims and sustains above the resistance zone. Don't Forget To Hit The Like Button & Share Your Thoughts In Comments.
TVC:USOILShort
by SOAM_PRO_TRADER
WTI Oil H4 | Bearish downtrend to extend further?WTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 69.45 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 70.20 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 68.46 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to the area of 68.926 (Wave C).Colleagues, price has worked the downward movement perfectly, but I believe the downward movement is not over yet. Wave “C” is a five-wave wave and now the price is in the correction of wave “4”. I expect the price to reach the downtrend line in the area of 72.00 level, then I expect the price to decline to the area of 68.926. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
12
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed lower, continuing its selling pressure. The index quickly dropped to the lower boundary of a large range, touching the 120-day moving average. The daily MACD has formed a bearish crossover with the signal line, confirming the downtrend, and the index has now reached a potential support zone near previous lows. Yesterday provided a short opportunity at the 5-day moving average, and since there was no meaningful rebound, the gap between price and the 5-day MA has widened significantly. This suggests that a short-term technical bounce could occur based on intraday movements. However, given the strong selling momentum on the daily chart, even if the market consolidates for a few days, further downside remains likely. If considering long positions, strict stop-loss management is essential. On the 240-minute chart, selling pressure continues to dominate, with both the MACD and signal line dropping sharply below the zero line. Comparing this to past price action near 20,763, the current MACD decline is even steeper, meaning that even if a short-term bounce occurs, the MACD is unlikely to recover back above zero easily. Overall, selling into rallies remains the preferred strategy, but traders should watch for intraday bottoming signals, as a bounce toward the 5-day MA is possible. Crude Oil Crude oil closed lower, weighed down by concerns over slowing consumer demand. On the daily chart, the sell signal remained intact, and the break below $70 has now confirmed a potential breakdown. Since $70 had been a key support/resistance level, the break below it suggests further downside risk. Today, a shorting opportunity may arise at the 3-day moving average, in line with technical retracement principles. However, the $66–67 range remains a strong support zone, so traders should monitor whether selling pressure is strong enough to push prices below this area. Since the MACD is turning sharply downward, and price action is forming a large bearish candle, the best strategy remains shorting into rallies near the 3-day MA. On the 240-minute chart, a third bearish wave has developed, leading to an accelerated decline. Aside from potential buying at key support levels on the daily chart, selling into rallies remains the most favorable approach. Given that inventory data will be released today, traders should be cautious of increased volatility. Gold Gold closed sharply lower, forming a large bearish candle as the Consumer Confidence Index fell. Yesterday, gold was at a crossroads between a buy and sell signal, and with this bearish breakout, the sell signal is now confirmed. For now, gold is likely to trade within a broad range, as the daily MACD and signal line remain widely separated from the zero line. This suggests that while further downside is possible, periodic rebounds should also be expected. Since gold has now fallen below the 10-day moving average and reached the 20-day MA, traders should treat the 3-day, 5-day, and 10-day MAs as key resistance levels, while the 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day MAs serve as support levels. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has dropped below zero, with the signal line following downward. This reinforces a range-bound trading strategy, focusing on buying at major support levels while keeping in mind potential rebounds. By analyzing the daily candles, traders can identify potential future scenarios for Nasdaq, oil, and gold. This is why daily and intraday technical analysis is essential. Additionally, NVIDIA’s earnings report will be released tonight, which could introduce further market volatility. Stay disciplined, manage risk carefully, and have a successful trading day! If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost! For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard