WTI CRUDE OIL TRADE SETUP : BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN ?📊 Key Observations:
🔹 Trend:
🚀 Strong bullish move followed by a correction 📉
🔻 Price is testing a support zone
🔹 Pattern Formation:
📏 Descending channel or flag-like structure
📍 Price is near a breakout point
🔹 Trade Setup:
✅ Entry Zone: Around 70.77
🛑 Stop Loss: 70.44 - 70.49 (Risk limit ❌)
🎯 Target Point: 71.80 (Profit zone ✅)
🔹 Indicators & Confirmation:
📊 DEMA (9) at 70.92 → Price is slightly below short-term momentum
🔥 A breakout above resistance could confirm a bullish move 🚀
📌 Conclusion:
✅ If price breaks the trendline upwards → Buy 📈 aiming for 71.80 🎯
❌ If support at 70.44-70.49 fails → More downside possible ⚠️
🚀 Watch for volume & candlestick confirmation before entering!
Energy Commodities
Crude Oil Dipped, Testing Critical Support Level FenzoFx—Crude oil dropped from $72.20 and is now testing the $68.8 support. The decline was expected as the Stochastic oscillator signaled overbought conditions.
If $68.8 breaks, the downtrend could extend to $67.6.
Bullish Scenario : However, a higher low above $70.15 would invalidate the bearish outlook, potentially pushing prices back to $72.20.
WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD) – H4 SELL SetupWTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD) – H4 SELL Setup
Price has reacted from a key H4 supply zone after taking out previous highs. A clean bearish shift suggests continuation to the downside.
🔹 Entry: At supply zone
🔹 SL: Above mitigation zone
🔹 TPs:
First support
Equal lows
Extended swing low
Bias: Bearish
Reasoning: Liquidity sweep + market structure shift + imbalance
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. However, following the announcement of mutual tariffs after the previous session’s close, the index experienced a significant gap-down. On the daily chart, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, generating a sell signal, though confirmation is still pending. If today's session closes with a bearish candle, we must monitor whether this leads to a third wave of selling, signaling further downside.
Due to the gap-down, the price is now significantly distanced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages (MAs), making it crucial to observe whether the price rebounds intraday or continues to decline further. With the first support level at 19,000 now breached, the next key support is around 18,500. When considering buy positions, it is essential to manage stop-loss risk carefully.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared but is not yet confirmed. If confirmed, it could trigger a third wave of selling pressure, potentially leading to further declines. Given the increased market volatility, a cautious approach is recommended—reducing leverage and only trading at key price levels to minimize potential losses.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher while maintaining a range-bound movement around $72. On the daily chart, the MACD has moved above the signal line and the zero line, establishing a bullish trend. However, following the mutual tariff announcement, the price gapped down, dropping below $70. The strongest support zone lies around $68, making it crucial to observe whether the MACD adjusts and aligns with the signal line before rebounding from this support level to resume the bullish trend.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared, but with multiple support levels nearby and both MACD and the signal line still above the zero line, the market is likely to attempt rebounds. A buy-the-dip approach remains favorable, but caution is necessary given today’s OPEC meeting, which could lead to increased volatility.
Gold
Gold closed higher, finding support at the 5-day MA. Following the mutual tariff announcement, the price initially gapped up to around 3,200, before pulling back. As previously mentioned, the upward target for this wave is around 3,216, with strong buying momentum continuing. On the daily chart, gold is trading between the 5-day MA and the upper Bollinger Band, maintaining a one-way bullish structure.
A bullish strategy remains favorable unless the daily close falls below the 10-day MA. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD remains above the zero line and previously attempted to break above the signal line but has since pulled back. Since buying momentum is still present, if the price finds support at a key supply zone, another leg higher could occur, potentially triggering a golden cross in the MACD and leading to a third wave of buying pressure.
Short positions should be approached with caution, and given the increased market volatility, risk management is crucial. Whether buying or selling, stop-loss discipline is essential to manage potential risks.
Market volatility has surged since the pre-market session due to Trump’s mutual tariff policies. Volatility is both an opportunity and a risk for traders. Do not let greed lead to losses in a market that doesn’t match your trading style. Adjust position sizes accordingly and only trade within your comfort zone. The market is always open. Do not focus solely on today—take a steady and stable approach to trading.
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Crude oil meets resistance at high levels, it is time to go shorAlthough we have used the daily line to re-count the waves, and explained that the current rising market is in the 2nd wave rebound of the daily line, which is the sub-wave c of wave 2, the market is still in a bearish trend in the daily line. After the market has completed this wave of 2nd wave rebound and adjustment, it will continue to fall by 3 waves. In the 4-hour market, the current market has not risen above 72.90 US dollars. We can still regard it as a rebound of 3-2 waves, or a rebound of the main wave 4. The main decline wave 1 of 4 hours fell from 76.57 US dollars to 69.80 US dollars, a drop of 6.77 US dollars, and the current 4-hour main decline wave 3 fell from 72.90 US dollars to 64. .85 dollars fell to 8.05 dollars. Why can it be either 3-2 waves or 4 waves? Because the current 8.05 dollars is larger than the decline of the main decline wave 1, it can be regarded as 3 waves, and the current rebound is very strong, so it can be regarded as 4 waves, but I think from the perspective of the main decline wave 3 in 4 hours, the decline should be more than that, it should be greater than 10 US dollars, so it can also be regarded as a rebound of 3-2 waves. The key is whether this wave of rise will break 72.90 US dollars. If it breaks, it will be a sub-wave of the main decline wave 1 in 4 hours. Therefore, our trading ideas today do not have a main direction. The market will make orders when the strategy reaches that first.
Today's crude oil recommendations: 1. Short at 72.65 US dollars, stop loss 30 points, and take profit 70.60 US dollars.
USOIL:Give priority to go long positions on the retracementU.S. heating oil futures gave back their gains. EIA (Energy Information Administration) data showed that U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories unexpectedly increased. U.S. gasoline futures' upward momentum expanded slightly, and the EIA data indicated that the inventory was basically in line with expectations.
The commercial crude oil imports in the United States excluding the strategic petroleum reserve for the week ended March 28 reached the highest level since the week ended January 31, 2025. The EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the United States for the week ended March 28 was at its highest level since the week ended October 28, 2022. The increase in EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ended March 28 recorded the largest gain since the week ended January 31, 2025. The domestic crude oil production in the United States for the week ended March 28 was at its highest level since the week ended December 20, 2024. The commercial crude oil inventory in the United States excluding the strategic petroleum reserve for the week ended March 28 was at its highest level since the week ended July 12, 2024.
Crude oil showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding on Wednesday. It stabilized and rose near 70.7. After breaking through the $71.2 mark, there might have been a bullish reversal in crude oil. The oil price is expected to test the resistance level above 72.0. Once it further breaks through, it is expected to open up the upside space. In terms of future trading operations, it is advisable to consider laying out long positions on the retracement first.
Trading Strategy:
buy@70-70.5
TP:71.5-72
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Oil - Short Term Buy Idea Update!!!Hi Traders, on March 25th I shared this "Oil - Expecting Retraces and Further Continuation Higher"
I expected to see retraces and further continuation higher. You can read the full post using the link above.
The bullish move delivered as expected!!!
If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀
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Crude oil---Buy near 70.60, target 71.90-76.00Crude oil market analysis:
Today's crude oil is still bought at a low price, and short-term bulls have started. Yesterday, gold fell in the US market, but did not fall in the Asian market, but repaired at a high level. The strong support of the daily line has reached 70.00, and the small support is 70.50. Today's idea is to find buying opportunities above 71.50. The daily moving average of crude oil is lined up, and there is still a lot of room for growth.
Fundamental analysis:
This week is a data week. Today, pay attention to the ADP employment data, which is the pre-agricultural data.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil---Buy near 70.60, target 71.90-76.00
WTI Oil H4 | Pullback support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 69.99 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 68.40 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 72.94 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. Although a sell signal briefly appeared in the previous session, the MACD failed to form a bearish crossover with the signal line, instead finding support and rebounding. The index strongly bounced from its low, reaching the 5-day moving average (MA) before closing with an upper wick.
Since the MACD is supporting the signal line and potentially resuming an upward trend, the key level to watch is whether the price can break through the strong resistance at 19,625–19,675. As long as the MACD does not confirm a bearish crossover, it is advisable to trade within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the index rebounded from the bottom while generating a buy signal. However, with strong resistance around 19,675, if the price pulls back once more, it could either form a double bottom or resume a strong upward move from a single-bottom structure.
Although the MACD has crossed above the signal line (golden cross) on the 240-minute chart, it is still far from the zero line, suggesting that further pullbacks may occur after additional gains. It is important to avoid chasing the price and instead focus on buying dips at key support levels while maintaining a range-trading approach.
Crude Oil
Oil closed flat, facing resistance at $72. On the daily chart, the price broke above the 240-day MA and is now testing resistance from a previous supply zone. It is likely to consolidate within a range while pulling up the short-term moving averages.
The daily MACD has moved above the zero line, lifting the signal line as well. If the price remains in a range-bound consolidation, the signal line will eventually rise above the zero line, further supporting a bullish structure.
Key upcoming events include today’s oil inventory report and tomorrow’s OPEC meeting, which could act as catalysts for either a continuation of the rally or a pullback. Since there is still a gap between the 3-day and 5-day MAs, range trading remains the best approach.
On the 240-minute chart, strong buying momentum continues, but given the heavy supply at previous resistance levels, a period of sideways movement or a pullback is likely.
If a bearish crossover occurs on the 240-minute chart, oil could drop below $70. For now, monitor whether the uptrend can hold, and if it does, consider trading within the range while managing downside risks.
Gold
Gold closed lower after an overshoot to the upside. On the daily chart, the price was in an overextended high position, with a significant gap from the 3-day and 5-day MAs. After a brief rally, selling pressure emerged, leading to a bearish close.
Since gold has yet to properly test the 5-day MA, a pullback to this level remains a possibility. However, the daily MACD is still trending upward, and liquidity remains strong, increasing the likelihood of a one-way rally unless the 10-day MA is broken. Short positions should be approached with caution.
On the 240-minute chart, a bearish crossover has occurred, leading to a pullback from the high. However, since the uptrend remains intact, even if the MACD crosses below the signal line, the fact that it is still above the zero line suggests a potential rebound.
The best strategy is to focus on buying dips at key support levels, as the market is likely to consolidate before resuming a trend move. Be cautious when trading within a range-bound market.
With Friday’s U.S. employment report approaching, market volatility remains elevated. Trump’s tariff policies are increasing concerns about inflation and a potential economic slowdown. The interpretation of upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining market direction.
Risk management remains essential, so trade cautiously and stay prepared.
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CRUDE OIL LONG SIGNAL|
✅CRUDE OIL is trading in a
Strong uptrend and was making
A local bearish correction but
A horizontal support level was
Hit at 71.00$ so we can go
Long on with the TP of 71.72$
And the SL of 70.59$
LONG🚀
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OIL - Key Fibonacci Levels and Potential Market MovesThis chart presents a detailed technical analysis of Crude Oil Futures on the 1D timeframe, highlighting key Fibonacci levels, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), and potential price movements.
Key observations:
- The price is currently around $71.44, moving towards a key decision zone.
- A significant Fibonacci retracement zone (0.618 - 0.65) is marked near $74, aligning with a key resistance area.
- The "Golden Pocket" from the greater downtrend remains a crucial area to watch for a potential reversal.
- Two Fair Value Gaps (FVG & IFVG) are identified, which could act as liquidity zones.
Possible Scenarios:
🟢 Option 1: Bullish breakout, price moves above $74 and continues toward $78+ levels.
🔴 Option 2: Rejection from resistance, leading to a potential pullback below $70.
🔴 Option 3: Strong rejection, price drops back towards the Fibonacci 0 level (~$64).
Which option do you think is most likely? Let me know your thoughts! 🚀📉
Crude Oil: WTI Recovers Slightly Above the $70 ZoneSince touching the key support level at $67 , WTI crude oil has posted a notable recovery of more than 7% in recent weeks, and is now hovering slightly above the $70 per barrel mark. For now, the bullish bias remains intact as comments from the White House suggest potential tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on countries that choose to trade Russian oil. According to President Trump, Russia has failed to implement a ceasefire in the short term and this could lead to additional tarrifs. Although this new tariff strategy has no official date, if enacted, it could significantly disrupt global oil supply, reinforcing short-term bullish expectations for crude.
Wide Sideways Range:
For several months now, oil has been moving within a stable sideways range between $81 (resistance) and $67 (support) per barrel. So far, there hasn't been any significant breakout from this channel, making it the dominant structure on the chart in the short term.
MACD:
The MACD histogram continues to oscillate just above the zero line, but recent sessions have shown slight bearish momentum, possibly signaling a pause in the upward movement as the dominance of the moving averages appears to be neutralizing.
TRIX:
A similar situation is developing in the TRIX indicator, with the line hovering just below the neutral 0 level. This suggests that the strength of the 18-period moving average has entered a zone of balance, lacking a clear directional force.
The behavior of both indicators implies that momentum is gradually weakening as the price approaches resistance levels.
Key Levels:
$73: A key resistance level located near the midpoint of the sideways range, also aligning with the 200-period moving average. A breakout above this level could trigger a solid short-term bullish trend.
$81: A distant resistance level marking the top of the current range. Price action reaching this level could be decisive in confirming a long-term bullish breakout.
$67: A significant support level , marking the lower boundary of the range. A return to this level could revive previously dormant bearish pressure and potentially resume a longer-term downtrend that began several weeks ago.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
USOIL Daily Analysis: Bullish Reversal from Key Support USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) daily chart showing price action analysis.
Key Observations:
Support Zone:
A strong demand zone is marked around $65-$66, which has acted as a reversal area in the past.
The price has recently bounced off this zone, indicating potential buyer interest.
Current Price Action:
Price is currently trading at $68.25.
A bullish move started from the support region, with a higher low formation suggesting potential upside momentum.
Potential Scenario:
The chart suggests a pullback before continuation to the upside.
If the support holds, $70-$72 could be the next target.
If price fails to hold above $66, further downside towards $64 may be possible.
Outlook:
Bullish Bias 📈 as long as the price remains above the demand zone.
Watch for a higher low confirmation before entering a long trade.
Breakout above $70 could signal a stronger rally.
USOIL:The bullish momentum demonstrates strong performanceRecently, the United States has stepped up its sanctions against Iran. It also made threatening remarks indicating that if the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine fail to reach an agreement, it will further intensify sanctions against Russia. Such actions have heightened the market's concerns about the future supply side.
Meanwhile, the short-term and phased decline in the United States' domestic oil production, combined with its temporary abstention from taking additional measures to suppress oil prices, has led to a certain increase in the supporting strength of the oil market recently. Yesterday, the upward trend of oil prices continued.
Take a long position at $71.05 for the oil price. Set a stop-loss of 30 basis points and a take-profit at $72.70.
Trading Strategy:
buy@70.8-71.05
TP:72.20-72.50
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WTI OIL Approaching a potential rejection level.Our last short-term analysis (March 18, see chart below) on WTI Oil (USOIL) hit the $70.00 Target and is currently extending the uptrend:
We believe however that this uptrend may be coming to a temporary end as not only does it approach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) that has been intact since February 03, but also the 73.40 Symmetrical Resistance that kick started the -7.70% September 24 2024 rejection.
As you can this this is also where the 1D RSI 67.00 Resistance is, which has also caused 2 rejections.
Based on that, we will wait for a short on the 1D MA200 to target $68.00.
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Oil - Expecting The Price To Bounce Higher FurtherH1 - Price has created series of higher highs, higher lows structure
Strong bullish momentum
Higher highs based on the moving averages of the MACD indicator
Expecting retraces and further continuation higher until the two strong support zones hold.
If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀
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USOIL Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 71.913.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 73.911.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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