Get started

Energy Commodities

WTI rebounds to test key resistanceCrude oil prices have rebounded by over 3% so far this week, though risks remain tilted towards the downside following a 9% drop the previous week. WTI crude has now reclaimed the crucial $70.00 level, but still below the broken support $71.50 to $72.50 area, which it was testing at the time of writing. Middle East tensions have slightly stabilized as Israel has so far refrained from attacking Iran and has said it will not target its nuclear facilities. However, the situation remains volatile due to Israel’s ongoing operations in Lebanon, which has reignited concerns about disrupted oil supply. Meanwhile, China's additional stimulus measures, including lending rate cuts, aimed to revive growth, has also helped to support oil prices, but not significantly so. The market is also cautious about a possible Trump victory in the US election, as his policy of boosting oil production could lead to oversupply and further price declines. From a technical standpoint, WTI remains bearish for now. Significant resistance is seen nears $71.50 to $72.50, while the first line of support now comes in near $70.00 and further support level is seen around $68.00. A potential break below $68.00 could trigger a sharp move down to $65.00, which may not be out of the question given concerns over rising global supply and weakening economic conditions. By Fawad Razaqzada
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
USOIL What Next? BUY! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on USOIL and concluded the following: The market is trading on 68.78 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probableBullish continuation. Target - 71.64 Safe Stop Loss - 67.44 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILLong
by AnabelSignals
1
WTI OIL Higher Lows held. Strong rebound is expected.WTI Oil (USOIL) is about to complete an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern whose Head was right above the Higher Lows trend-line. An imminent break above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) will confirm the start of the new Bullish Leg towards the Resistance Zone. Our Target remains 78.50. Notice how the 4H RSI has already broken above its Lower Highs trend-line, as it did on the September 09 break-out. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
2024-10-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Trading range 68 - 70.6 continues. Neutral as it gets in between. Don’t over analyse this range. comment : Bulls fighting for 70 and there is a chance this today was a lower low major trend reversal and we go up from here. Validation is only a daily close above 71, so don’t be early like me last week. Continuation of the trading range is a bit more likely than a bullish breakout. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 71 bull case: Bulls want to keep 70 support and break above the bear channel now. They still need to break the bear trend line and above the daily 20ema. Given the current chart, you simply can not hold longs above 70 for now. Invalidation is below 67.7. bear case: Bears keeping this at the lows is good for them. They could still try to get a third leg down to retest the September low 63.46 but right now that is as unlikely as bulls breaking above 71. I do think one side will give up this week and we see a bigger move. Do not trade on hopes of an event which could sent oil prices higher. That is not a trading strategy, that is gambling. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral inside given range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long 68.6 since it was previous support and close enough to the bull trend line to expect it to hold. Was good for 150+ ticks.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
NKD: Japan Beyond Carry TradeCME: Nikkei 225 USD Futures ( CME:NKD1! ) Tokyo: The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported last Friday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan increased 2.5% in September year-on-year, down from 3.0% in August. The CPI excluding fresh food rose 2.4%, down from 2.8%, during the same period. The core inflation measure, which excludes both fresh food and energy costs, rose slightly to 2.1% in September from 2.0% in August. Service prices, considered a crucial indicator by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), gained 1.3% year-on-year, slowing from 1.4% in August. To counter the recent economic slowdown, the Japanese Government rolled out subsidies on electricity and gas prices. These fiscal measures were a major contributor to the cooling inflation, estimated to have shaved 0.55% off the annual inflation rate. The BOJ is widely anticipated to maintain its interest rate at 0.25% during its upcoming policy meeting on October 31st. Despite the dip in inflation, BOJ has signaled that further rate hikes may still be on the table if inflation continues to align with its projections. However, policymakers are cautious following criticism of their July rate hike, which triggered a market downturn. As the US Federal Reserve will have its rate-setting FOMC meeting on November 7th, the all-important interest rate spread between the US and Japan could continue to narrow: • With the Fed Funds at 4.75%-5.00% and the Japanese Interest Rate at 0.25%, the US-Japan interest rate spread is currently at 450 basis points (our calculation takes the lower bound from the US policy rate range) • According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, as of October 20th, the futures market expects a 99.3% chance that the Fed will cut 25 basis points in November. If that happens and the BOJ maintains its current rate, the spread will narrow to 425 bps • If the Fed pushes for a supersized 50bp cut again, same as they did in the last meeting, the interest rate spread could further shrink to 400 bps • Over the course of the next 2-3 years, I expect the Fed to normalize interest rates to 3% or below, to a level not restrictive to economic activity. Meanwhile, the BOJ could maintain the 0.25% rate throughout this period. If that is the case, the US-Japan rate differential could further move towards the 200-250bp range, in my opinion Carry Trade May be a thing of the Past Two years ago, I published a market commentary, “Land of Rising Sun and Falling Yen” on November 7, 2022, and received TradingView Editors’ Picks. In that writing, I discussed Carry Trade, a wildly popular FX strategy. In a nutshell, a trader would borrow Japanese Yen with ultra-low interest rate, exchange the fund into Australian Dollar or US Dollar and earn a higher return. At the end of the investment horizon, the trade would exchange the proceed back to Yen and pay back the loan. The differential between the investing interest rate and loan rate would be the return from this strategy. With 50x to 100x leverage common in FX trade, carry trade could be hugely profitable. Carry trade carries two significant risks. The first is the appreciating yen. The trader may need more dollars to exchange back to yen and pay back the loan. The loss from exchange rate changes could eat up all the interest earning profit. In the last writing, I commented that Yen at 150 may have bottomed out, and explored the idea to take cover for carry trade. Over the following two months, the Yen sharply rose 15% to 127. A trade that earned 3% in interest would have been wiped out completely and may incur huge losses if executed with high leverage. In the present time, we are observing the second risk, a shrinking interest rate spread. Carry trades may have 400-bp interest spread in 2023 and could see the spread narrowing to 200 bps in the next two years. With central banks around the world cutting interest rates, and volatility of exchange rates on the rise, this is probably not a good time for carry trade. The Japanese Stock Market on Focus While the currency play may be out, the Japanese stock market could offer both a good return and diversification for an investor’s portfolio. The Nikkei 225 index is the main stock market index for Japan. At 39,290, its year-to-date return is 17.9% as of last Friday. It is lower than the 22.7% YTD return for S&P 500. However, Nikkei was initially up 27.6% in July. When the BOJ raised rates, the Japanese stock market entered a huge correction, wiping out all the gain. Since then, the Nikkei popped up about 17% in the past six weeks. Japan is the world’s third largest economy with GDP of $4.2 trillion in 2023. Comparing to the other large nations, Japan is more intertwined with the rest of the world. We would explore two trading strategies based on Japan’s unique economic fundamentals. The first aspect: Japan has an export-oriented economy. Its top 3 trading partners are • China: exports were $153 billion in 2021, accounting for 21% of the total ($728 billion) • United States: $137 billion, 19% of the total • The European Union: $97 billion, a 13% share These top 3 partners contribute to 53% of Japan’s exports of goods and services. In essence, economic growth in its trading partners will result in more demand for “Made-in-Japan”, while economic slowdown could spill over to Japan. In my opinion, there is more tail wind than head wind on the way. The US is already in a rate-cutting cycle. Its economy has been resilient during the high-rate environment. The economic health would continue to improve with lower cost of capital. I would also point out that Japan’s export data did not tell the whole story. Most Japanese cars are now made in the US. The data does not show up on Japan’s GDP, but is included in the profit of Toyota, Honda and Nissan. Many of the Japanese car makers are component companies in the Nikkei 225 index. China is implementing massive economic stimulus. Hundreds of business-supportive new rules and trillions of yuan are putting in the economy. I expect China to revive in Q4 and in 2025, which would lead to higher demand for Japanese goods. To summarize, I consider the Nikkei 225 has room to grow. A long position in CME Group’s Nikkei 225 Futures could be deployed to express this view. The second aspect: Japan is a net importer of natural resources • Japan, ranked fifth-highest consumer of oil in the world, relied on imports to meet 97% of its demand in 2022. Japan imports crude oil primarily from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Russia. In 2022, Japan’s crude oil imports increased to 2.5 million barrels per day, up from 2.3 million b/d in 2021. Not only does Japan depend on foreign oil, but it also sources crude oil from regions with heightened geopolitical tensions. If the conflicts in the Middle East escalate further, crude oil production and/or shipping routes could be interrupted. The chart below shows an inverted relationship between Nikkei 225 and WTI crude oil price trends. This suggests that a spread trade could be constructed. For most of 2024, Nikkei moved up as crude oil trended down, except for the BOJ rate hike disrupting the trend. If geopolitical crisis escalated, oil prices could soar while the Nikkei would tank. For someone holding this view, a long position on WTI Crude Oil futures ( NYSE:CL ) and a short position on CME Nikkei futures ($NKD) could be deployed to express such a view. Introducing CME Micro Nikkei USD Futures On October 28th, CME Group will be launching a USD-denominated and Yen-denominated Micro Nikkei futures. The new contract has a notional value of $0.50 times the Nikkei index. At Friday closing price of 39,150, each contract would be worth $19,575. The Micro contract is 1/10th the size of the standard Nikkei futures ($NKD). It will provide a new way to access broad-market Japanese index exposure with greater trading precision and lower capital commitment required. The timing of the new contract launch is critical. It is a week before the US presidential election (November 5th) and ten days before the next FOMC meeting (November 7th). Let’s watch this space to explore the trading opportunities presented by the standard Nikkei futures and Micro Nikkei futures. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:NKD1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
Can oil prices hit 100 usd/bbl in 2025?🔸Based on technicals it's entirely possible. Looking at the daily price chart of Brent Oil we can spot a sequence of lower lows having said that prices are also compressing in a falling wedge price structure which could indicate a swift reversal off the lows near 65 USD/bbl. 🔸Potential price targets for Brent at 100/110 USD bbl if the tensions escalate further in 2025, which is almost guaranteed at this stage. 🔸The possibility of an Israel-Iran conflict has escalated tensions in the Middle East, which is putting upward pressure on oil prices. Although Israel has not yet officially declared war on Iran, there is ongoing speculation about Israeli strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure in response to missile attacks and Iran's support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Such actions could significantly disrupt the global oil market. 🔸If Israel were to target major Iranian oil facilities, such as Kharg Island, which handles the majority of Iran's oil exports, global oil prices could spike dramatically. Analysts suggest prices could exceed $100 per barrel and might even reach as high as $200 if the conflict spreads to other regional oil producers or if key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted. This scenario would impact not only fuel prices but also inflation globally, reviving economic fears similar to those seen during the 1970s oil crisis​ 🔸At the moment, oil prices have already seen increases due to the broader conflict, but the market has remained relatively stable thanks to diversified supplies from the U.S. and other non-Middle Eastern producers​ ​ 🔸However, if the situation deteriorates further, particularly with attacks on critical energy infrastructure, more significant price hikes are likely. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team!
TVC:UKOILLong
by ProjectSyndicate
15
WTI Oil H1 | Overhead pressures remainWTI oil (USOIL) could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 70.04 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 71.40 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 68.66 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
Digital Dreams, Nuclear Reality: Is AI Sparking a Revolution?In an unprecedented fusion of cutting-edge technology and atomic power, Oracle's latest venture illuminates the extraordinary energy demands reshaping our digital landscape. The tech giant's bold decision to power its next-generation AI facilities with nuclear reactors signals more than just an infrastructure upgrade – it represents a fundamental shift in how we approach the intersection of computational power and energy resources. The numbers tell a compelling story: with data centers already consuming more electricity than entire nations and AI operations demanding exponentially growing power supplies, traditional energy solutions are proving insufficient. Oracle's gigawatt-scale ambitions, powered by small modular reactors, showcase an innovative response to this challenge, potentially revolutionizing how we fuel our digital future. As tech titans race to build increasingly powerful AI systems, Oracle's nuclear gambit raises fascinating questions about the future of technological progress. Will this marriage of nuclear power and artificial intelligence unlock unprecedented computational capabilities, or are we witnessing the dawn of a new era where the limits of power generation become the primary constraint on digital innovation? The answer may reshape not just the tech industry, but the very framework of our energy infrastructure for generations to come.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by signalmastermind
Bearish drop?WTI oil (USO/USD) has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 69.96 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Stop loss: 71.83 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 67.58 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level.| Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
WTI CRUDE OIL & BRENT OIL Weekly Outlook: Wait For SELL Setup!This weekly forecast is for Oct 21 - 25th. US & UK Oil have been up and down throughout this Mid East crises. WIth a strong bearish candle and close last week, the indications are that the market has taken a bearish turn. I will be watching the market closely for a pullback to the newly formed Daily -FVG for a high probability short setup. Take caution, day traders. As there will be buys to take as price retraces up, but I would urge you to remain patient and wait for the HP sells. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:BZ1!Short
by RT_Money
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bulls nowhere to be found. We are near the minor bull trend line starting from the September low below 64 and it is more likely that this trend line holds and we do not go below the October low 65.74. Can you long this based on that assumption? I would not. Wait for bigger buying pressure and break of the bear trend line currently around 70.4. Can you sell this? On a pullback yes, but not below 70. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish doji on the weekly with big tails above and below. 71.5 is a good low and likely to hold. I do expect another try by the bears though. Only question now is will we see 77+ before 74? I don’t know. So watch for momentum and hope along. I still favor the bulls for at least a retest of 77/78 but I do think we can hit 80 again. Given the strength of the move up, it is reasonable to expect a bigger second leg to 80 or higher. comment: Bulls started ok on Monday and the close was neutral but Tuesday really killed every last bull who bought above 71 and hoped for a second leg up above 75. Market has now left a giant bearish island reversal between 71 and 72.5 and that is as bearish as it gets. Bulls last hope now is to hold above the bull trend line at 68. current market cycle : trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: No more bullish thoughts from me for now. Only an event can save the bulls. Monday they had another chance and they blew it on Tuesday. Now market has formed a big bear wedge but the hope that this will break to the upside is slim. Bull trend line at 68 has to hold or bulls will give up until 65. Invalidation is below 68 bear case: Bears won last week big time. Now they want to run all the stops below 65 and retest 63.46. Problem with their case is the bull trend line and the bear wedge. We are trading at the lows and above the bull trend line, which is a bad spot for new shorts. Any short around the daily 20ema near 71 is probably a decent trade. Invalidation is above 72. outlook last week: short term: Neutral but expecting a retest of 77 and higher again. The closer to 74 you can long this, the better is what I think. → Last Sunday we traded 75.56 and now we are at 68.69. That outlook was garbage. short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bullish pattern, added bear gap and bear wedge.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds