Why I Believe Brent Crude Oil is Headed to $125 by 2026www.tradingview.com 1. Supply Constraints: Geopolitics & Trade Wars
One of the biggest drivers of higher oil prices is geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts. We're already seeing major disruptions that could tighten supply further:
Middle East Tensions – The ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea, Iran, and Israel continue to create uncertainty. Attacks on shipping routes and production facilities raise the cost of transporting oil and increase the risk of supply disruptions.
Russia-Ukraine War – With Russian oil facing sanctions and restrictions, global supply chains have had to adjust, making energy markets more fragile.
OPEC+ Output Cuts – OPEC has repeatedly restricted production to keep prices elevated, and there’s no indication they’ll reverse course anytime soon.
U.S.-China Trade War & Tariffs – With Trump leading in the 2024 election polls, there’s a growing possibility that tariffs on China will return. If this happens, energy trade flows could be further disrupted, and retaliatory tariffs could add to price pressures.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Depletion – The U.S. used a huge portion of its SPR to lower oil prices in 2022-2023, but refilling those reserves will create additional demand, pushing prices even higher.
With these factors at play, supply is becoming more constrained, making it easier for prices to rise with even small increases in demand.
2. Demand Boom: AI, Bitcoin Mining, and Agriculture
While supply is tightening, demand for energy is skyrocketing in unexpected ways.
AI Data Centers & Industrial Demand
AI computing is extremely energy-intensive, and as companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to expand cloud computing infrastructure, demand for electricity is surging.
Many data centers still rely on fossil fuels for backup power and cooling systems, meaning oil and gas usage will continue to increase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Mining
Bitcoin mining requires massive amounts of electricity, and as BTC prices rise, mining activity expands in energy-dependent regions.
With the 2024 BTC halving, miners will have to run at full efficiency, which translates to higher global energy consumption.
Agriculture & Food Production
The world’s growing population and extreme weather events (like El Niño) are driving higher food production needs.
Fertilizer production, transportation, and machinery all require oil, meaning agricultural commodities are directly contributing to higher energy demand.
Together, these factors suggest that demand for oil is only going to increase, making it harder for supply to keep up.
3. Oil Price vs. Stock Market: The $100 Warning Zone
Historically, when oil prices get too high, the stock market struggles. Some key examples:
2008 Recession: Oil peaked at $147 per barrel, right before the financial crisis.
2018 Market Drop: When oil hit $80+, stocks sold off sharply.
2022 Inflation Shock: Oil reached $120+, leading to Fed rate hikes and market turmoil.
Why $100+ Oil is a Warning Sign for Stocks
Higher oil prices = higher inflation. This forces central banks like the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, making borrowing more expensive.
Energy costs impact corporate profits. Companies across multiple sectors will see shrinking profit margins as transportation and production costs rise.
Consumer spending takes a hit. Gasoline prices cut into disposable income, which weakens overall economic growth.
If Brent crude pushes above $100, expect increased market volatility and a potential selloff in equities.
4. Brent Crude Technicals: Price Targets for 2026
Current Setup
Price Holding Key Support (~$70-$74) – Brent is respecting major trendlines, signaling strong demand in this area.
Breakout Zone Around $80-$82 – If price moves above this level, it could trigger a rally to $100+.
Fibonacci Levels Align with $125 Target:
0.618 Fib retracement at $106 → First major resistance.
0.786 Fib extension at $119 → Likely next target.
1.272 Fib extension near $125 → Final upside target for 2026.
This technical setup aligns with macro fundamentals and historical oil cycles, making a move to $125 increasingly probable.
5. Investment & Trading Strategy
Long-Term Bullish Strategy
Accumulation Zone: $70-$74 (solid support).
Upside Targets: $106, $119, $125.
Stop Loss Consideration: Below $68 (invalidates thesis).
Hedging Against Market Risk
SPX Put Options / VIX Calls – If oil rises toward $100+, consider hedging against an equity downturn.
Energy Stocks (XLE, Exxon, Chevron) – These stocks tend to outperform during oil bull markets.
Gold & Commodities – Hard assets often rally when energy prices increase.
Conclusion: The Path to $125 Brent Oil
Geopolitical instability + supply cuts = higher prices.
AI, Bitcoin, and food production = rising demand.
If oil approaches $100, watch for an equities pullback.
While no forecast is perfect, all signs point to oil prices rising into 2026. If this trend plays out, investors should be prepared for higher inflation, tighter Fed policy, and increased market volatility.
Would love to hear your thoughts—do you think oil will hit $125, or are we headed lower? 🚀📊
Energy Commodities
USOIL Massive Long! BUY!
My dear friends,
USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 70.49 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 71.21
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
WTI Crude The Week Ahead 17 Feb 25 The WTI Crude (US Light Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend.
The key trading level is at 7290, 50 Day Moving Average level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7290 level could target the downside support at 7100 followed by 6955 and 6870 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7290 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7360 resistance followed by 7455 levels.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is evidently falling on the 1D timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 78.25 because the pair oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
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USOIL (WTI) - More downside?The price action for the WTI Crude Oil chart shows that the higher probability move appears to be to the downside, targeting the lower orange box around the 70.00 level. The recent price structure has failed to establish any convincing bullish momentum, and after testing the upper orange box around 73.00, the price has shown weakness. Without any strong buying pressure or upside catalyst visible in the current price action, the path of least resistance suggests a continuation of the downward movement toward the lower support zone.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher, breaking through resistance near 22,000. Although Trump held a press conference on tariffs, the market interpreted the grace period as a bullish signal, driving a breakout from the previous range with a strong bullish candlestick.
On the daily chart, the MACD remains in an upward trend, and since the index has broken out of its previous range, today’s strategy should focus on buying at the 3-day moving average, which aligns closely with the previous range high.
Today marks the weekly close, making the Retail Sales data release a crucial event. If price action sustains its bullish momentum, it will be important to check whether a weekly buy signal is confirmed on the closing price.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has emerged, reinforcing the breakout above the range. Buying on dips remains the preferred strategy, but traders should stay mindful of potential volatility spikes around the Retail Sales report.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher, bouncing off the $70 support level with a long lower wick. Despite this rebound, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line on the daily chart, indicating that selling pressure is still dominant. However, this area also represents a strong historical support zone, making buying on dips a favorable strategy.
As mentioned earlier this week, oil is forming a potential double-bottom pattern, which could provide further upside potential. The key trigger would be either a bullish MACD crossover near the zero line or a bearish continuation if the crossover fails, leading to a strong directional move.
On the 240-minute chart, price action has exhibited a false breakdown, followed by a bullish divergence, suggesting that a bottoming process is underway. Buying on pullbacks remains the most effective approach, but traders should be cautious with weekend risk, as Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations could bring unexpected developments.
Gold
Gold closed higher, digesting the PPI data while trading near previous highs. The key focus is whether gold is forming a double-top pattern at this level. The recent rally can largely be attributed to global inflation fears stemming from Trump’s tariff policies.
On the daily chart, the buy signal remains intact, but traders should be cautious, as a corrective pullback could emerge at any time. The MACD and signal line tend to converge naturally, so chasing momentum at current levels carries increased risk.
On the 240-minute chart, gold has bounced off the 2,900 support level, triggering a buy signal. However, there is now a wide divergence between price and MACD, meaning that even if gold breaks above previous highs, the MACD may fail to surpass its previous peak, potentially signaling a bearish divergence.
If a divergence forms and price pulls back, the correction could be sharp, as overbought conditions often lead to strong reversals. However, since the MACD and signal line remain well above the zero line, even a pullback is likely to find support, leading to a range-bound structure. The safest approach is to buy only at key support levels.
Today’s Retail Sales report could drive significant market volatility, particularly as it will influence the weekly close.
Always focus on the larger trend, manage risk effectively, and stay disciplined. Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀
Today's strategy will only be provided until the end of this week. Thank you.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 22000 / 21945 / 21900 / 21840
-Sell Levels: 22160 / 22240 / 22300 / 22360
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market(March)
-Buy Levels: 71.10 / 70.45 / 69.85
-Sell Levels: 71.85 / 72.55 / 73.00
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2945 / 2936 / 2930 / 2921
-Sell Levels: 2966 / 2974 / 2985
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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WTI Oil Short: Bearish Setup After Sharp RallyOil prices have surged impressively, fueled by recent fundamental-driven market moves. However, this swift upside has led WTI crude to my point of interest, offering a prime opportunity to short against the trend. My trade strategy includes taking partials at the $74 price zone. Here’s why this setup is supported by bearish fundamentals:
1. Rising U.S. Fuel Inventories
Recent data shows significant growth in U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles, hinting at a potential oversupply in the market.
2. Strengthening U.S. Dollar
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing global demand and weighing on prices.
3. Increased Non-OPEC Supply
With rising production levels from non-OPEC countries, analysts expect an oversupplied market in 2025, adding further pressure on oil prices.
4. Weakening Global Demand
Economic growth concerns in major markets like China and Germany are fostering expectations of reduced oil demand, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
These combined factors strongly support a short position on WTI crude oil. Stay strategic, take profits along the way, and manage your risk carefully in this volatile environment!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Natural Gas Short: Testing the $4 Barrier – Opportunity Knocks!Natural Gas (XNG/USD) has spiked to revisit the $4 price zone, activating my short trade. This marks the second time in two years that the price has reached this significant resistance area. The $4 level is pivotal, serving as a key psychological barrier and a historic zone of strong price action. With the position now live, I am leveraging the resistance for a retracement opportunity.
Fundamentals:
• Weather and Seasonal Demand: Short-term spikes in demand are driven by cold weather in the U.S., but with futures traders starting to focus on spring, we may see waning bullish momentum in the coming weeks.
• Russian Gas Supply Constraints: Limited Russian gas flows to the EU continue to add uncertainty to the market, but the current rally seems to be pricing in short-term factors rather than long-term structural changes.
• Historical Levels: The $4 spot price has attracted significant attention as a resistance zone, with $3.40 acting as a key support in recent months. The bounce from this level earlier this year highlights its importance.
• Market Behavior: Futures traders’ sentiment and seasonality are critical drivers. As winter progresses, reduced speculative demand may favor a bearish pullback.
Technicals:
• Entry: $4.00 (Resistance Zone)
• Target: $2.60 - 2.70
• Partials: From $3,19
• Stop Loss: $4.40 (Above Recent Highs)
• Timeframe: 12H
This short trade aligns with technical, fundamental, and seasonal narratives. As the price has shown rejection at this zone, I will actively monitor for a breakdown toward the $3.40 level while managing risk prudently. Stay disciplined, follow your trading plan, and remember to pay yourself as the market unfolds.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
WTIhello trader, today the price drop back to main support and we see 4hr bullish candle.. the price will likely reverse but regardless use proper risk management as suggested on the chart... the target level is the resistances as shown.. the price will likely make higher highs based on trend changing...
good luck..
USOIL Will Go Lower! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 73.038.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 70.781 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 70.40 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 69.20 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 73.32 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to the 70.00 support area.Colleagues, the situation is quite complicated, so I assume that the price is in a combined correction. At the moment I expect the completion of wave “B” in the 77.00 area, then the completion of wave “C” in the 70.00 support area.
Complex compound corrections are always quite unpredictable, so I recommend not to forget about SL and lot calculation.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
USOIL USOIL is showing a potential sell opportunity following a breakout of the upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe. This signals a possible shift in momentum toward the downside.
Trade Setup:
🔻 Sell Entry Zone: 73.000 – 73.300
🔻 Resistance Level: 73.700 (Key level to watch for invalidation)
Target Levels:
✅ Target 1: 72.300
✅ Target 2: 71.670
✅ Target 3: 70.780
If price respects the resistance zone and fails to break above 73.700, we could see a continuation to the downside toward the listed targets. Confirmation from price action will strengthen the setup before executing trades.
USOIL 1H Analysis: Bullish Breakout or Reversal?📊 WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) 1H Chart Analysis 🛢️🚀
Current Market Status
Open: 73.33
High: 73.36
Low: 73.25
Close: 73.26 (-0.11%) 🔻
200 EMA: 72.40
Key Observations
✅ Strong Uptrend 📈
Price is trading above the 200 EMA (red line), indicating bullish momentum.
Recent candles show higher highs and higher lows, confirming upward movement.
✅ Consolidation Zone 📊
Price is currently in a range (orange box), suggesting a potential breakout.
Market is forming small candles, indicating indecision before a bigger move.
✅ Projected Breakout 🚀
The chart shows an anticipated bullish breakout above $74.00 - $74.85 target area (gray box).
If the price breaks above resistance, it may rally towards the next psychological level $75.00+.
❌ Risk Zone (Stop Loss Area) ⚠️
Support zone (bottom of the orange box) at $72.78 - $73.15.
If price breaks below this level, a bearish reversal could happen.
Trading Outlook
💡 Bullish Bias 📈: Look for a breakout above $73.50 - $74.00 for a long entry.
⚠️ Bearish Reversal Risk: A break below $72.78 may invalidate the bullish setup.
🔥 Potential Move:
🚀 Upside Target: $74.85 - $75.00+
🛑 Stop Loss: Below $72.78
WTI OIL Weak price action on the medium-term.WTI Oil (USOIL) is extending the Bearish Leg of the Triangle pattern after the recent January 13 rejection on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Until the 1W RSI turns bearish again, and more importantly the Support Zone gets hit, we expect this bearish trend to be extended.
The strongest Demand Level for the past 2 years has been this Support Zone, so our medium-term Target is on its top at $68.00.
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USOIL BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are targeting the 69.83 level area with our short trade on USOIL which is based on the fact that the pair is overbought on the BB band scale and is also approaching a resistance line above thus going us a good entry option.
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