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Energy Commodities

Crude Oil Technical Outlook: Range Breakdown & Next Targets🔹Key Observations: 1. Range Formation & Breakout: - The price was consolidating within a range (highlighted in the pink box). - A range breakout trading setup is identified. - The price has broken below the range support, signaling potential downside momentum. 2. Breakout Confirmation: - The price has moved below a key support area (marked in blue). - The breakdown indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend. 3. Downside Targets: - 1st Target: $68.00 (first green line). - 2nd Target: $67.05 (second green line). - If the price sustains below the breakout level, these targets could be reached. 4. Volume Analysis: - The volume bar at the bottom suggests increased selling pressure. - The breakout occurred with notable volume, which confirms bearish sentiment. ▪️Technical Outlook: - Bearish Bias: The chart suggests a bearish move with downside targets aligned at $68.00 and $67.05. - Watch for Retest: If the price pulls back toward the breakout zone, it may confirm the breakdown before further decline. - Invalidation Level: A strong recovery back above the blue support zone could invalidate the bearish setup. 😊Don't Forget To Hit The Like Button & Share Your Thoughts In Comments.
TVC:USOILShort
by SOAM_PRO_TRADER
Monthly, Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher, finding support at the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. Due to the sharp decline last week, the 20,500 to 20,300 range was a technical rebound zone. On the monthly chart, February closed with a bearish candle, bringing the index below the 5-day moving average and forming a range with the 10-day MA. For March, the 3-day and 5-day moving averages will act as resistance, while the 10-day MA serves as support. Since the monthly MACD is still above the signal line, even if corrections occur this month, rebound potential remains, meaning traders should be cautious about chasing shorts aggressively. On the weekly chart, the Nasdaq fell below the 20-week MA, accelerating the sell-off. The MACD continues to slope downward, keeping further downside potential open, but since the signal line is still above zero, the index may consolidate between the 3-week and 5-week moving averages, making a range-bound strategy effective this week. On the daily chart, both MACD and the signal line have dropped below zero, confirming a bearish market structure. The 21,000 level was broken decisively with a large bearish candle, meaning that if price struggles to reclaim this level, further downside toward the 240-day moving average is possible. If the Nasdaq falls to the 240-day MA, traders should prepare for a potential technical bounce, as historically, this level has provided support. Reviewing moving average dynamics could be helpful for understanding this scenario. On the 240-minute chart, Friday’s low produced a strong rebound, making the MACD's potential golden cross a key signal to watch. As long as the recent lows hold, buying opportunities may exist, but since the signal line remains far above zero, selling pressure may persist on any rallies. Traders should avoid chasing long positions and focus on range trading. This week, traders should keep an eye on China’s National People's Congress (NPC) on Tuesday and the U.S. Employment Report on Friday, as both events could increase market volatility later in the week. Crude Oil Crude oil closed lower within a narrow range, continuing its sideways movement. On the monthly chart, February closed with a bearish candle, causing the MACD to turn downward while still maintaining a range-bound structure. Although the MACD and signal line remain above zero, buyers are still attempting to hold support within this range. For now, oil should be traded as a large range-bound market. On the weekly chart, last week’s doji candle suggests indecision, and this week, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, triggering a sell signal. However, since a weekly close is needed to confirm this, the possibility of a trend reversal remains open. If oil continues lower this week, the sell signal will be fully confirmed, but if price rebounds, last week’s doji candle could mark a reversal point. Key bullish catalysts include Trump’s potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the possibility of stricter oil sanctions on Venezuela. Meanwhile, bearish factors include economic slowdown fears reducing oil demand. On the daily chart, breaking above $70 remains the key bullish trigger, but since the MACD has yet to form a golden cross, confirming an end to the downtrend is premature. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has formed a golden cross, indicating a potential recovery after a pullback. For now, traders should buy dips cautiously, but breaking above $70 remains the key factor for further upside confirmation. Gold Gold closed sharply lower, forming a large bearish candle. On the daily chart, gold has fallen from previous highs to the lower Bollinger Band, meaning that additional downside (overshooting below support) remains possible. On the monthly chart, gold formed a doji candle, indicating uncertainty. If gold found support at the 3-day MA last month, this month, traders should watch for support at the 5-day MA, as it could provide a buying opportunity on pullbacks. On the weekly chart, gold has fallen to the 5-week MA, meaning that it has entered a range-bound structure. Since the lower support levels are still open, traders should avoid chasing long positions at highs and focus on buying lower. The U.S. Employment Report is due on Friday, which could increase volatility for gold. On the daily chart, while the MACD is declining, the signal line remains well above zero, meaning that even if prices fall, rebound attempts are likely. On the 240-minute chart, further downside toward the 240-day moving average remains possible, but traders should watch for bottoming signals and potential support. If the MACD forms a golden cross, a strong rebound could follow, so monitoring short-term momentum shifts will be key. February marked a transition to a range-bound market after an extended uptrend, suggesting that March could be a period of consolidation or further downside extension. Geopolitical risks have increased since Trump took office, and market volatility is rising due to key global events. Traders should focus on risk management and avoid overexposure. Wishing you a successful start to March! 🚀 If you like detailed this analysis and today's strategy, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Weekly Market Forecast Mar 3-7: Stock Indices, Gold, Oil, moreThis is a FUTURES market outlook for the week of Mar 3-7th. In this video, we will analyze the following futures markets: ES | S&P 500 NQ | NASDAQ 100 YM | Dow Jones 30 GC | Gold SIL | Silver PL | Platinum HG | Copper The indices took a bearish turn at the end of last week. Trump announcements, tariffs, Ukraine and Russia injected uncertainty into the markets, and investors moved money into safe havens. Patience is required to trade in this environment. Wait until there are clear signs of shifts in the market before deciding on a bias. Setup confirmations are always the best course of action. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RT_Money
4
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 300 point range last week and we closed near the middle of it. Bulls buy new lows and bears sell every rip close or above the 4h 20ema. Bear channel is still valid but it’s getting weaker. We have also touched my bull trend line from 2024-09 and market has formed a triangle with a nested bear wedge. No big moves, both sides make money. So either scalp the range or don’t look at this. Update after crypto reserve news spike: Bear channel could still hold and if it does, the move down will be even more violent because of so many new trapped traders. Above 97k the bear channel is dead and we continue sideways inside the previous range 90k - 110k. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 72 bull case: Bulls have to be content with buying new lows and scalping a couple of points. Every rip is sold and they just can’t catch a break. Until they have a daily close above 72 again, there is nothing going for them. Sure they keep new lows shallow and the bear trend is getting weaker but that does not help any bull if they don’t make higher highs again. Very low chance that bulls see this as a very broad bull channel where this leg down was a test of the breakout price 70. If you look at a weekly chart, we are still making higher lows and higher highs. Invalidation is below 67.8. bear case: Bears fear that the bull trend line from September is bigger support and the bear trend is getting weaker. That is likely a reason why we will probably see more sideways movement now and less new lows. Bears are still favored until we have higher highs above 72 again. Shorts below 71 are bad, no matter how you put it. Invalidation is above 72. short term: Neutral. Shorts close or above 71 are fine and longs below 69. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated bear channel.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
E-cutieAll year EQT, an unloved natural gas producer has been a swing trader's paradise. I've harvested so many gains from these E-cutie trees I thought I'd make a thread just for it and post trading updates. The macro technical picture is clear. Years of being battered by shorts ended with capitulation in 2020, followed by a swift rebound. Fundamentals are tightening. According to analysts, $25 is fair price for $2.50 NG price. Goldman Sachs has a $23ish target. Price action is showing signs of bottoming. It's lining up but this is much more profitable short term swings. Currently, price is building a base at previous long term support around $18. More downside is certainly a possibility given that NG prices look overvalued. But, EQT is in a channel and fundamentally undervalued. Investors might front run this sector as demand picks up in later in the year, in which EQT will likely be closer to $25. s3.tradingview.com Long EQT +200 @ 18.10
NYSE:EQTLong
by trade-God
WTI Crude The Week Ahead 03rd March ’25 The WTI Crude (US Light Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 7150, 20 DMA level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7150 level could target the downside support at 6964 followed by 6850 and 6830 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7150 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7258 resistance followed by 7320 (50 DMA) levels. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:WTI
by TradeNation
Oil ($USOIL) – Diesel Demand Soars as Cold Grips U.S.Oil ( TVC:USOIL ) – Diesel Demand Soars as Cold Grips U.S. (1/9) Good morning, Tradingview! Oil is dipping slightly 📉, at $ 74.93, down 0.1% from yesterday’s close, as per February 27, 2025, data. Cold weather’s driving up U.S. diesel demand 💪, and Texas power systems are hitting clean energy milestones 🌿. Let’s dive into this oil play! 🔍 (2/9) – REVENUE PERFORMANCE 📊 • Post-Election: $ 74.93, down 0.1% from $ 75.00 💰 • Feb 27, 2025: Diesel demand rises due to cold weather 📏 • Texas Power: Clean energy milestones achieved 🌟 TVC:USOIL steady, with diesel’s boost! ⚙️ (3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈 • Market Cap: Approximately $ 1.05B, tracks WTI crude tight 🏆 • Diesel Spike: Cold lifts usage, per Reuters ⏰ • Energy Shift: Texas clean power climbs 🎯 TVC:USOIL firm, frost pays off! 🚀 (4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑 • Cold Snap: Boosts diesel usage across U.S. 🔄 • Texas Grid: Clean energy marks met 🌍 • Market Reaction: Down 0.1% post-election 📋 TVC:USOIL adapting, chill’s the star! 💡 (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡ • Election Aftermath: Policy shifts may affect prices 🔍 • Green Energy Growth: Challenges oil’s dominance 📉 • Weather Flux: Diesel demand may fluctuate ❄️ TVC:USOIL tough, but risks hover! 🛑 (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪 • Diesel Lift: Cold weather props up demand 🥇 • Oil Core: Fundamental to energy needs 📊 • Resilience: Handles market fluctuations 🔧 TVC:USOIL got heat in the freeze! 🏦 (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️ • Weaknesses: Election haze, green energy bite 📉 • Opportunities: Continued cold weather, rising demand 📈 Can AMEX:USO bank on the frost to gains? 🤔 (8/9) – OIL’s $ 74.93 dip, diesel up in Feb 2025, your take? 🗳️ • Bullish: $ 80+ soon, cold lasts 🐂 • Neutral: Steady, risks in check ⚖️ • Bearish: $ 70 looms, green wins 🐻 Chime in below! 👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯 TVC:USOIL $ 74.93 dip masks diesel’s cold surge 📈, Texas green strides mix it up 🌿. Election stings, yet dips are our DCA gold 💰. We grab ‘em low, climb like pros! Gem or bust?
TVC:USOILLong
by DCAChampion
USOIL H4 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 169.24, which is a pullback support that closes to the 61.8% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 71.58, which is a pullback resistance level. The stop loss will be placed at 68.29, which is a swing low support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
5
The downtrend dominates, the focus needs attentionGeneral crude oil market and WTI crude oil technical chart TVC:USOIL Still in a downward trend. Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela, which has fueled supply-side market concerns and supported a recovery in oil prices, but they are still on a downtrend and trade policy uncertainty has limited a recovery in demand expectations. The focus of the crude oil market will still need to pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation, the US Dollar index, and the Trump administration's trade policy. Notable technical levels are as follows. Support: 68.52USD Resistance: 70 - 71.43USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
Crude Oil - The Manipulation of Trend LinesIn this example on Crude Oil I give some insight into how trendlines and traditional support & resistance theories may be used by "smart money" for the purposes of facilitating their positions via inducing liquidity. Basically, trendlines are drawn along the highs or lows of price movements and help to identify the direction and strength of a trend. They serve as visual guidelines for traders, highlighting potential turning points or continuation patterns. Support and resistance levels are areas where the price historically finds a floor or ceiling, leading many market participants to place their entry and exit orders around these zones. Because these levels are based on historical price action, they hold significant psychological value among retail traders. The Mechanism of Liquidity Manipulation Liquidity Pools and Stop Loss Clusters: Retail traders often cluster their stop losses near prominent support or resistance levels. Smart money is aware of these liquidity pools and can engineer price moves to trigger these stops. For example, by intentionally nudging the price through a known support level, institutional players can trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders. This “stop run” injects a burst of liquidity into the market, which can then be absorbed as positions are liquidated at less favorable prices for retail traders. False Breakouts and Reversals: Another common tactic involves creating false breakouts. A price move that breaks above a resistance level (or below a support level) might initially appear to signal a new trend. However, smart money can deliberately drive prices just past these technical barriers to trigger stop-loss orders and entry orders. Once sufficient liquidity is collected from the triggered orders, they may reverse the move. This reversal traps traders who anticipated a sustained breakout, leaving them with positions that quickly turn against them. Exploiting Herd Behavior and Market Sentiment: The widespread reliance on technical analysis means that many traders have similar expectations about where price will reverse or accelerate. This collective mindset, or herd behavior, creates predictable zones of liquidity. Smart money can capitalize on these self-fulfilling prophecies by anticipating the mass reaction around key trendlines and support/resistance levels. They use this insight to position themselves ahead of the crowd, executing large trades that move the market in their favor. Strategic Benefits for Smart Money By manipulating these common technical levels, smart money participants can: Maximize Efficiency: Accumulate or distribute large positions with minimal market impact by tapping into pre-existing liquidity pools. Control Market Direction: Influence short-term price movements to create advantageous conditions for larger trades. Enhance Risk-Reward Profiles: Trigger stop losses at critical junctures, effectively reducing their own risk while capitalizing on forced exits from retail traders. Conclusion While trendlines and support/resistance are invaluable tools for assessing market structure and potential price movements, they also serve as instruments for liquidity manipulation by experienced market participants. The predictable nature of stop-loss placements and entry orders around these levels creates opportunities for smart money to trigger cascades of orders, generating liquidity in their favor. As a result, retail traders must be aware of these dynamics and consider them when planning their trades, acknowledging that what appears to be a genuine breakout may, in fact, be a carefully orchestrated move to capture liquidity. This nuanced understanding highlights the double-edged nature of technical analysis tools in modern trading. By appreciating both their utility and potential for manipulation, traders can better navigate the complex interplay between market psychology and institutional strategy.
TVC:USOIL
by Road_2_Funded
1
BRENT weaker after inventories and tariffs expectationsThe BRENT Crude (Brent Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 7444, 13th and 24th February swing low level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7444 level could target the downside support at 7245 followed by 7134 and 7050levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7444 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7530 resistance followed by 7640 levels. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:BRENT
by TradeNation