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Energy Commodities

USOIL Set To Grow! BUY! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the USOIL next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 70.97 Bias - Bullish Safe Stop Loss - 69.61 Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 73.22 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILLong
by AnabelSignals
1
Crude Oil daily time frame - potential Ascending Channel Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) – Daily Chart Analysis (Feb 11, 2025) 📉 Market Structure: Crude oil is trading within a broad ascending channel, with higher lows forming near $68 and resistance near $80-$82. Price recently bounced from a key support zone around $70-$72, indicating demand in this area. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch: Support: $70-$72 (previous resistance turned support) Resistance: $78-$80 (previous strong rejection area) Major Resistance: $82+ (upper trendline of the channel) 📊 Potential Scenarios: Bullish Case: If price holds above $72, a continuation to $78-$80 is likely. Breaking $80 could lead to a test of the upper channel at $82-$85. Bearish Case: A break below $70 could invalidate the bullish momentum, pushing price towards the lower trendline near $68-$66. 📌 Conclusion: Oil is in a consolidation phase, respecting key levels. Bulls need a breakout above $78-$80 for further upside, while bears would target a breakdown below $70. 🚀🔥
NYMEX:CL1!
by Forexbeats
CRUDE OIL - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.2-7.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 10th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), likely completing the 1st phase. The extreme forecast on February 3 worked as a reversal from the combined resistance of the MA20 and the large triangle boundary, which I mentioned in my last post. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle isn’t over yet, but it is very mature. ⚠️ Note that the pivot forecast on January 17 marked a triple top with the extreme forecasts of July 1 and April 12 (Retrograde Mercury). This is a very strong resistance level. I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 11.
NYMEX:CL1!
by irinawest
How Can You Trade Energy Commodities?How Can You Trade Energy Commodities? Energy trading connects global markets to the vital resources that power economies—oil and natural gas. These commodities aren’t just essential for industries and homes; they’re also dynamic assets for traders, influenced by geopolitics, supply, and demand. Whether you’re exploring benchmarks like Brent Crude and WTI or understanding natural gas markets, this article unpacks the essentials of energy commodities and how to trade them. What Is Energy Trading? Energy trading involves buying and selling energy resources that power industries and households worldwide. These commodities are essential for modern life and are traded in global markets both as physical products and financial instruments. Energy commodities include resources like oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, ethanol, uranium, and more. In this article, we’ll focus on the two that traders interact with the most: oil and natural gas. Oil is often divided into benchmarks like Brent Crude and WTI, which set global and regional pricing standards. These benchmarks represent crude oil that varies in quality and origin, impacting its trade and refining applications. Natural gas, on the other hand, plays a critical role in electricity generation, heating, and industrial processes. It’s traded in various forms, including pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), offering flexibility in transportation and supply. What makes energy commodities unique is their global demand and sensitivity to external factors. Weather patterns, geopolitical developments, and economic activity all heavily influence their prices. For traders, this creates a dynamic market with potential opportunities to take advantage of price movements. Additionally, energy commodities can act as economic indicators. A surge in oil prices, for example, might reflect growing demand from expanding industries, while a drop could indicate reduced consumption. Understanding these resources isn’t just about their practical use—it’s about grasping their role in shaping global markets and financial systems. Oil: Brent Crude vs WTI Brent Crude and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) are the world’s two leading oil benchmarks, shaping prices for a resource critical to industries and economies. Despite both being types of crude oil, they differ significantly in origin, quality, and market influence. Brent Crude Brent Crude is a globally recognised benchmark for oil pricing, primarily sourced from fields in the North Sea. Its importance lies in its role as a pricing reference for about two-thirds of the world’s oil supply. What makes Brent unique is its lighter and sweeter quality, meaning it has lower sulphur content and is easier to refine into fuels like petrol and diesel. This benchmark is particularly significant in European, African, and Asian markets, where it serves as a key indicator of global oil prices. Its value is heavily influenced by international demand, geopolitical events, and production levels in major exporting countries. For traders, Brent offers a window into global supply and demand trends, making it a critical component of energy markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) WTI, or West Texas Intermediate, is the benchmark for oil produced in the United States. Extracted primarily from Texas and surrounding regions, WTI is even lighter and sweeter than Brent, making it suitable for refining into high-value products like petrol. WTI’s pricing is heavily tied to North American markets, with its hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, a key point for storage and distribution. Localised factors, like US production rates and storage capacity, often create price differentials between WTI and Brent, with Brent typically trading at a premium. For example, logistical bottlenecks in the US can drive WTI prices lower. The main distinction between the two lies in their geographical focus: while Brent captures the international market’s pulse, WTI provides insights into North American energy dynamics. Together, they form the foundation of global oil pricing. Natural Gas: A Growing Energy Commodity Natural gas is a cornerstone of the global energy market, valued for its versatility and role in powering economies. It’s used extensively for electricity generation, heating, and industrial processes, with demand continuing to rise as countries seek cleaner alternatives to coal and oil. This energy commodity comes in two primary forms for trade: pipeline natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Pipeline gas is delivered directly via extensive networks, making it dominant in regions like North America and Europe. LNG, on the other hand, is supercooled to a liquid state for transportation across oceans, opening up markets that lack pipeline infrastructure. LNG trade has grown rapidly in recent years, with key suppliers like Qatar, Australia, and the US meeting surging demand in Asia. Pricing for natural gas varies regionally, with hubs like Henry Hub in the US and the National Balancing Point (NBP) in the UK serving as benchmarks. These hubs reflect regional dynamics, such as weather conditions, storage levels, and local supply disruptions. Natural gas prices are also closely tied to broader geopolitical and economic factors. For example, harsh winters often drive up heating demand, while conflicts or sanctions affecting major producers can create supply constraints. This volatility makes natural gas an active and highly watched market for traders, offering potential opportunities tied to shifting global conditions. Price Factors of Energy Commodities Energy commodity prices are influenced by a mix of global events, market fundamentals, and local factors. Here’s a breakdown of key elements driving oil and gas trading prices: - Supply and Production Levels: Output from major producers like OPEC nations, the US, and Russia has a direct impact on prices. Supply cuts or surges can quickly move markets. - Geopolitical Events: Conflicts, sanctions, or political instability in oil and gas-rich regions often disrupt supply chains, creating volatility. - Weather and Seasonal Demand: Cold winters boost natural gas demand for heating, while summer driving seasons often increase oil consumption. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, can also damage infrastructure and reduce supply. - Economic Growth: Expanding economies typically consume more energy, driving demand and prices higher. Conversely, a slowdown or recession can weaken demand. - Storage Levels: Inventories act as a cushion against supply disruptions. Low storage levels often signal tighter markets, pushing prices up. - Transportation Costs: The cost of shipping oil or LNG across regions impacts pricing, particularly for seaborne commodities like Brent Crude and LNG. - Exchange Rates: Energy commodities are usually priced in dollars, meaning currency fluctuations can affect affordability in non-dollar markets. - Market Sentiment: Traders’ expectations, shaped by reports like US inventory data or OPEC forecasts, can influence short-term price movements. How to Trade Energy Commodities Trading energy commodities like oil and natural gas involves navigating dynamic markets with the right tools, strategies, and risk awareness. Here’s a breakdown of how traders typically approach energy commodity trading: Instruments for Energy Trading Energy commodities can be traded through various instruments, typically through an oil and gas trading platform. For instance, FXOpen provides access to oil and gas CFDs alongside 700+ other markets, including currency pairs, stocks, ETFs, and more. - CFDs (Contracts for Difference): Popular among retail traders because they allow access to global energy markets without owning the physical assets. They offer leverage and provide flexibility to take advantage of both rising and falling prices. Additionally, CFDs have lower entry costs, no expiration dates, and eliminate concerns like storage or delivery logistics. Please remember that leverage trading increases risks. - Futures: These are contracts to buy or sell commodities at a future date. While they provide leverage and flexibility, trading energy derivatives like futures is often unnecessarily complex for the average retail trader. - ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds): Energy ETFs diversify exposure to energy commodities or related sectors. - Energy Stocks: Shares in oil and gas companies provide indirect exposure to commodity price changes. Analysis: Fundamental and Technical Energy traders rely on two primary types of analysis: - Fundamental Analysis: Examines supply and demand factors like OPEC decisions, weather patterns, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators such as GDP growth or industrial output. - Technical Analysis: Focuses on price charts, identifying patterns, trends, and important levels to anticipate potential market movements. Combining these approaches can offer a broader perspective, helping traders refine their strategies. Taking a Position and Managing Risk Once traders identify potential opportunities, they decide on position size and duration based on their analysis. Risk management is critical to help traders potentially mitigate losses in these volatile markets. Strategies often include: - Diversifying positions to reduce exposure to a single commodity. - Setting limits on position sizes to align with overall portfolio risk. - Monitoring leverage carefully, as it can amplify both potential returns and losses. Risk Factors in Energy Commodities Trading Trading energy commodities like oil and natural gas offer potential opportunities, but it also comes with significant risks due to the market's volatility and global nature. - Price Volatility: Energy markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical events, economic shifts, and supply disruptions. This can lead to rapid price swings, particularly if the event is unexpected. - Leverage Risks: Many instruments, like CFDs and futures, allow traders to use leverage, amplifying both potential returns and losses. Mismanaging leverage can lead to significant setbacks. - Geopolitical Uncertainty: Events like conflicts in oil-producing regions or trade sanctions can disrupt supply chains and sharply impact prices. - Market Sentiment: Energy prices can react strongly to reports like inventory data, OPEC announcements, or unexpected news, creating rapid shifts in sentiment and price direction. - Overexposure: Focusing too heavily on a single energy commodity can magnify losses if the market moves against the position. - Economic Factors: Slowing industrial activity or recession fears can reduce demand for energy, putting downward pressure on prices. The Bottom Line Energy commodities trading offers potential opportunities, driven by global demand and supply. Whether focusing on oil, natural gas, or other energy assets, understanding the fundamentals and risks is key to navigating this complex market. Ready to explore oil and gas commodity trading via CFDs? Open an FXOpen account to access advanced tools, competitive spreads, low commissions, and four trading platforms designed to support your journey. FAQ What Are Energy Commodities? Energy commodities are natural resources used to power industries, homes, and transportation. Key examples include crude oil, natural gas, and coal. These commodities are traded globally as physical assets or through financial instruments like futures and CFDs. Can I Make Money Trading Commodities? Trading commodities offers potential opportunities to take advantage of price movements, but it also involves significant risks. The effectiveness of your trades depends on understanding of market dynamics, analyses of supply and demand, and risk management. While some traders achieve returns, losses are also common, especially in volatile markets like energy. How Do I Start Investing in Energy? Investing in energy typically begins with choosing an instrument like ETFs or stocks, depending on your goals and risk tolerance. Researching market fundamentals, monitoring geopolitical and economic factors, and practising sound risk management are essential steps for new investors. What Is an Energy Trading Platform? An energy trading platform, or power trading platform, is software that enables traders to buy and sell energy commodities. These energy trading solutions provide access to pricing data, charting tools, and news feeds, helping traders analyse markets and execute trades efficiently. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDEducation
by FXOpen
2
Market Forecast UPDATES! Tuesday, Feb 11In this video, we will update the forecasts for the following markets: ES \ S&P 500 NQ | NASDAQ 100 YM | Dow Jones 30 GC |Gold SiI | Silver PL | Platinum HG | Copper Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RT_Money
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher despite Trump’s tariff announcement. On the daily chart, the MACD buy signal remains intact, and the index posted a strong bullish candlestick, confirming an upward bias. However, given the lack of volume behind the move, the market remains within a range-bound structure rather than signaling a clear breakout. For meaningful upside continuation, a decisive breakout above 22,000 is required. Until then, the market is likely to remain in a 21,000–22,000 range, as failure to break either side would prevent the MACD from creating a strong divergence from the signal line, leading to further sideways consolidation. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is attempting a bullish crossover, but the price is struggling to hold its gains. If the MACD fails to cross above the signal line and instead turns lower, a failed breakout scenario could trigger a sharp decline. Given the low-volume rally from yesterday, chasing longs at current levels is not ideal. Instead, it is safer to maintain a range-trading strategy, with buying near the lower bound and selling near the upper bound. Additionally, if the index fails to break above the range high, a bearish MACD divergence could develop, increasing the risk of a downside move. Traders should avoid aggressive breakout buying and instead focus on disciplined range-bound positioning. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, reaching the 10-day moving average, as MACD attempted to reconnect with the signal line. The $70–71 support zone remains a strong demand area, making dip-buying strategies favorable. As mentioned yesterday, the key question is whether oil will form a double bottom at $70–71 before breaking higher, or if it will continue rallying without a retest. Given the wide gap between the MACD and signal line on the daily chart, a failure to complete a golden cross could lead to another pullback, making chasing longs above $74 risky. On the 240-minute chart, oil has confirmed a bullish divergence, triggering a strong upward move. For the first time in a while, strong buying pressure has returned, reinforcing the buy-on-dip strategy. However, traders should monitor price action carefully as resistance levels approach. Gold Gold closed at a new all-time high, rallying aggressively into overbought territory and even breaking through the upper Bollinger Band. Inflation concerns are intensifying globally, fueled by Trump’s escalating tariff rhetoric, which is driving a strong commodities rally in gold, copper, and other raw materials. Since gold has been in a continuous uptrend since confirming its buy signal on January 16, traders should be mindful that sharp pullbacks can occur at any time. Additionally, with key U.S. economic data releases this week—CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday—gold’s volatility is expected to remain elevated. Given the overbought conditions, the best strategy remains buying on dips, rather than chasing highs. On the daily chart, the MACD would need to form a bearish crossover for a more structured correction to take place. On the 240-minute chart, gold has been in a stair-step rally, with the 2940–2950 zone emerging as a key wave-based resistance level. However, overshooting this level is possible, making it critical to wait for confirmation before assuming a short position. For now, the buy signal remains intact on the 240-minute chart, reinforcing the buy-on-dip approach. However, given yesterday’s strong rally, some short-term consolidation or profit-taking is likely today. With Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release and Trump’s escalating tariff measures, global market volatility is increasing significantly. Risk management remains essential in this environment. Trade smart and stay disciplined! Today's strategy will only be provided until the end of this week. For more detailed strategies, please contact us on Telegram. Thank you. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 21770 / 21720 / 21670 / 21550 -Sell Levels: 21850 / 21905 / 21960 / 22020 / 22100 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 72.10 / 71.70 / 71.30 / 71.00 -Sell Levels: 72.95 / 73.35 / 74.50 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2934 / 2928 / 2922 / 2917 -Sell Levels: 2950 / 2955 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
WTI crude bulls eye $74Crude oil prices fell over 11% from the January high before support was found at the 200-day SMA and 50% retracement level on Friday. Trump's latest tariffs saw commodities rise on inflationary concerns, and that allowed WTI futures to post a daily gain of 1.6% - its best day since the January high. The 1-hour chart shows an impulsive move with no immediate threat of a top forming, and it seems plausible that the market is now reaching for $74 as part of a counter trend move, near the monthly pivot point and weekly R2. However, as Monday's trading volume was the lowest of the year, it shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm. So unless we see volumes rising alongside prices, I am to assume the current bounce is simply a correction against the drop from the January high. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
2
Support around 73.25 is the key Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (CL1! 1D chart) The point to watch is whether it can rise above 73.25-74.62. Since the M-Signal indicator and MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicators on the 1W chart are passing around 73.25, it is expected to be the first resistance zone for the rise. The M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart is passing around 74.62, so it is expected to be the second resistance zone. - If it receives resistance and falls, 1st: 70.64-71.0 2nd: 68.18-68.94 You should check whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd above. - (30m chart) Resistance: M-Signal indicator of 1D, 1W chart Support: 5EMA+StErr indicator of 1D chart (71.78) - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:CL1!
by readCrypto
WTI CRUDE OIL: Aiming at 82.00 long term.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.507, MACD = -0.150, ADX = 34.872) as only today it crossed above the 1D MA50, following a correction since Jan 15th. The prevailing pattern is a Channel Up and we are very close to its bottom. The two bullish waves it had already, peaked after at least a +20% rise. As the 1D RSI is already on the S1 Zone, we anticipate a new bullish wave to start gradually and aim at the top of the Channel Up (TP = 82.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
Weekly price prediction: $71.49 (Min) and $77.37 (Max).Projected Price Range The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $71.49 (Min) and $77.37 (Max). Contended Price Levels $74.50 – Point of Control (POC) – potential support $73.22 - $71.49 – High Volume Node (HVN) – potential support $77.32 - $81.62 – Low Volume Node (LVN) – potential resistance Technical Analysis Fibonacci Retracement & Price Movement: The price reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level in mid-January before retracing. This level has demonstrated consistent horizontal price movement over the past six months, indicating it as a key reference point. Volume Profile Analysis: High Volume Node (HVN): Found between $73.22 and $71.49, indicating strong liquidity and potential support. Low Volume Node (LVN): Between $77.32 and $81.62, which could lead to rapid price spikes if the price enters this zone. MACD and Stochastic RSI: Stochastic RSI (Bottom Indicator): Has shown low bearish momentum over the last two weeks and appears poised for an upward crossover, signalling potential price growth. MACD (Top Indicator): Remains in the negative region, with a few weeks left before a possible crossover, implying continued caution for bullish sentiment. Additional Factors Support & Resistance Considerations: Point of Control (POC) and HVN are close to the current price, reinforcing these as key support zones. The price is currently resting on a previous resistance level that has now turned into support. The black rectangle above the price highlights the LVN region, where rapid price movements could occur. The white rectangle represents a large support zone, which may contribute to horizontal price movement. Geopolitical & Market Sentiment: As always, geopolitical events could significantly impact price fluctuations, and traders should remain alert to any market-moving developments. Conclusion Brent Crude Oil prices for the upcoming week are likely to remain within the projected range, given the strong support levels in the current price zone. However, any breakout downward could be swift, while an upward breakout could be accelerated due to the LVN region.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
Reversal of US Energy Policy Could Push Crude Oil LowerNYMEX: Micro Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) #Microfutures On January 20th, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, “Declaring a National Energy Emergency”. This sets the tone of US energy policy for the next 4 years. By declaring national emergency and raising energy independence to the highest level of national security, President Trump introduced sweeping measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals. In a 180-degree reversal, the new administration abandoned the Climate Change policies championed by the Biden presidency. Other executive orders saw the US quitting the Paris Climate Accord and cancelling pushes into renewable energy and electric vehicles. This marks a major turning point in the price trend of crude oil. Since Mid-January, WTI prices have already retreated 11%, while Brent was lowered by 10%. In my opinion, WTI futures could fall to the pre-Pandemic price range of $45-$64 a barrel, with a midpoint target at $55 in 2025. My logic follows: US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy As of 2023, the U.S. produced about 14.7% of the world's crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This makes the US the largest crude oil producer globally. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the domestic oil production at 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. It recently forecasted the US output to grow to 13.5 and 13.6 million b/d, in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Considering the complete makeover of US energy policy, I think the next EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) would show measurable upticks in its production forecast. Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand Last week, the US slapped a 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China on top of those imposed during the 2018-19 trade conflict. While the tariffs for Canada and Mexico are on hold pending trade negotiation, China retaliated and announced new tariffs on US goods at rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Rising global trade tensions would increase costs and raise the prices on store shelves. Declining sales would lead to production reduction. Eventually, a slowdown in economic activities will result in less demand for crude oil. The January STEO report forecasts global oil consumption growth to be less than the pre-pandemic trend, at an increase of 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026. With the impact of higher tariffs, I expect the next STEO to show further deterioration in its oil consumption forecast. Lifting of oil embargo could release more supply to the global market The new administration campaigned to end global military conflicts. In my opinion, a US brokered peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is on the horizon. Iran and the US could resume talks soon. Both scenarios could see the existing oil embargo being lifted. In 2024, Russia is the 3rd largest oil producer with 10.75 million barrels a day, while Iran ranks 7th with 4.08 million. Together, they contributed to over 18% of global oil output. Market trades on expectation. Oil prices would respond quickly with the emergence of any planned negotiation. OPEC+ to increase crude oil production The STEO forecasts the OPEC+ to relax production cuts. Following an annual decline of 1.3 million b/d in 2024, it expects growth of 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and a further increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2026 from OPEC+ producers as voluntary production cuts unwind. Additionally, STEO expects further production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 4th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX WTI Futures is 1,765,342 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 204,272 in Long, 60,136 in Short and 393,098 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 3.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 36,310 (-15%) while increasing short positions by 11,085 (+16%). • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on oil. Crude oil prices typically rise on the back of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and economic growth. We are likely to witness the retracing on all these fronts. Another reason for the rising prices in most financial assets has been the abundance of liquidity, leading by the $2-trillion-a-year US deficit spending. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) made significant headways into cutting government expenditures. This could help remove some of the premiums on asset prices. Trade Setup with Micro WTI Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX Micro WTI Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). MCL contracts have a notional value of 100 barrels of crude oil. With Friday settlement price of $71.0, each March contract (MCLH5) has a notional value of $7,100. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $586. NYMEX crude oil futures are among the most liquid commodity contracts in the world. On Friday, standard WTI futures ( NYSE:CL , 1000 barrels) has a trade volume of 784,820 contracts and an OI of 1,796,265. Micro WTI has a trade volume of 54,038 and OI of 19,178. The Micro contracts allow traders to tap into the deep liquidity of NYMEX WTI market, while requiring only 1/10th of the initial margin. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March MCL contract and WTI prices pull back to our upper price range of $64. A short futures position would gain $700 (= (71 - 64) x $100). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +119.5% (= 700 / 586). The risk of shorting crude oil futures is rising oil prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop loss at $75 when entering the short order at $71. If crude oil continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $400 ( = (75-71) *100). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
Crude oil is approaching highs and continues to shortReal-time analysis of crude oil market: Crude oil did not fall below the 70 mark for four consecutive trading days last week. This week, the price of crude oil will be determined by the integer mark of 70. Last week, we repeatedly suggested that we should buy at 70.5 and 70 in batches. Now it has reached the 71.5 line, which can only be regarded as the first stop of the decline. The short-term pressure range is in the 71.7-72.1 area. It is expected that there will be no big ups and downs at the beginning of the week. With 71.5 as the radius, 15 points of space will be reserved above and below as the shock range at the beginning of the week. Today's resistance is focused on the 4-hour upper track 72.1. The upper side looks at the pressure point of 72.5 where the daily MA60 moving average and the 4-hour MA60 moving average overlap. The deviation pressure point focuses on the weekly MA10 moving average 73. For support, first look at the 1-hour middle track 71, followed by the lower track 70.6, and the deviation looks at the 70 integer mark. Overall, the 4-hour Bollinger band lower track and the daily Bollinger band lower track have turned into an upward closing state, and the probability of breaking the low again is not high. Therefore, any retracement this week is an opportunity to try a long-term bullish trend. For the European and American markets, it is recommended to mainly go long on retracements, and go short when encountering resistance at high levels.
TVC:USOILShort
by niwmniwm
"UKOILSPOT / BRENT Crude Oil" Energy Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "UKOILSPOT / BRENT Crude Oil" Energy market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long & Short entry. 👀 Be wealthy and safe trade 💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull or Bear trade at any point after the breakout. Buy entry above 77.500 Sell Entry below 75.500 Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest Pullbacks. Goal 🎯: Bullish Robbers TP 81.500 (or) Escape Before the Target Bearish Robbers TP 72.500 (or) Escape Before the Target 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, Sentimental Outlook: The "UKOILSPOT / BRENT Crude Oil" Energy market is expected to move in a bearish direction, driven by several key factors. 🟠Macroeconomic Factors: 1. Global Economic Slowdown: A slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China, may decrease demand for crude oil, putting downward pressure on prices. 2. US-China Trade Tensions: Escalating trade tensions between the US and China may lead to a decline in global economic growth, negatively impacting oil demand. 3. Strong US Dollar: A strong US dollar may make crude oil more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand and putting downward pressure on prices. 🔴Fundamental Factors: 1. Increasing US Shale Oil Production: Rising US shale oil production may lead to a surplus in global oil supply, putting downward pressure on prices. 2. High Oil Inventory Levels: Elevated oil inventory levels in the US and other countries may indicate a surplus in global oil supply, negatively impacting prices. 3. OPEC+ Compliance Issues: Non-compliance by OPEC+ members with production cuts may lead to a surplus in global oil supply, putting downward pressure on prices. 🟢Trader/Market Sentimental Analysis: 1. Bearish Trader Sentiment: The CoT report shows that speculative traders are net short crude oil, indicating a bearish sentiment. 2. Market Sentiment: The market sentiment is bearish, with many analysts expecting crude oil prices to decline due to the supply surplus. 3. Technical Analysis: The technical analysis shows that crude oil is in a downtrend, with a bearish breakdown below the $70 level. 🟡Sentimental Outlook: Bearish Sentiment: 55% Bullish Sentiment: 30% Neutral Sentiment: 15% ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 🚨Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 🚨Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
FX:UKOILSPOT
by Thief_Trader
$BP’S COMEBACK? ELLIOTT’S STAKE & UNDERVALUATION BUZZBP’S COMEBACK? ELLIOTT’S STAKE & UNDERVALUATION BUZZ 1/7 BP ( NYSE:BP ) just got a jolt of activist energy ⚡️ as Elliott Management took a significant stake. Shares surged 7% to 464.75 pence—the highest since August. Are we witnessing the start of a big turnaround? Let’s break down the numbers. 2/7 – REVENUE RUNDOWN • 12-month revenue (ending Sept 2024): $199.1B (↓13.72% YoY) • Big contrast to 2022’s 51.58% revenue jump • Post-pandemic swings? The energy rollercoaster keeps rolling. 🎢 3/7 – EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS • Q4 2023 net income: $371M vs. $10.8B the previous year 🤯 • Lower refining margins + weaker oil & gas production = big dent • Still holding a “GOOD” Financial Health score—some resilience under the hood. 4/7 – ELLIOTT’S INVOLVEMENT • BP’s 2023 performance: -16%—underperforming Shell (-4%) & ExxonMobil (+8%) • Elliott sees untapped value? Activists typically target companies trading below intrinsic worth • Market loves it: 7% daily pop signals new optimism. 🚀 5/7 – VALUATION SNAPSHOT • TTM P/E ratio at 7.89—notably below Shell & Exxon’s multiples • Some analysts call BP “undervalued” and point to further upside potential • If Elliott drives restructuring or divestitures, could we see a sustained rally? 6/7 Is BP primed for a major comeback with Elliott on board? 1️⃣ Yes—Activists will unlock hidden value! 2️⃣ No—BP’s challenges run too deep. 3️⃣ Maybe—Need more clarity on strategy. Vote below! 🗳️👇 7/7 – RISK FACTORS • Commodity Volatility: Oil & gas prices can swing hard • Regulatory & ESG Pressure: Green-energy pivot demands big $$ • Debt Levels: ~$20.9B net debt could limit agility • Competition: Shell, Chevron, & Exxon aren’t standing still. ⛽️
NYSE:BPLong
by DCAChampion
$GAIL REVIVES US LNG PLANS POST-TRUMP BAN LIFTNSE:GAIL REVIVES US LNG PLANS POST-TRUMP BAN LIFT 1/7 Good morning, energy traders! ☀️⚡️ Major shake-up in the LNG world: India’s GAIL is back on the hunt for a US LNG stake or long-term deals. What’s fueling this move? Let’s break it down! 2/7 – THE BACKSTORY • Trump administration lifts the ban on new LNG export permits. • GAIL had plans on ice since 2023—now they’re back in action. • Sandeep Kumar Gupta (GAIL’s chairman) says: “We’re reviving our plans to buy a stake or sign long-term LNG contracts.” 3/7 – WHY IT MATTERS • LNG Prices: Expected to soften post-2026 as supply ramps up. • Impact on India: Cheaper energy imports, eye on boosting gas to 15% of energy mix by 2030. ♻️ • US Benefit: Strengthens position as a global LNG exporter—hello, bullish signals for Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Venture Global! 4/7 – MARKET IMPACT • Prices: More supply could translate to downward pressure on LNG prices. • Investment Angle: US LNG producers & infrastructure might see capital inflows. Keep an eye on relevant tickers! • Energy Security: India aims for a cleaner, more reliable energy mix—this is long-term strategy at play. 5/7 – STRATEGIC ANGLE • Aligns with India’s push to expand natural gas usage from ~6% to 15% by 2030. • US Gains: Jobs, economic boost, and stronger foothold in global energy markets. • Trade Partnerships: Could deepen economic ties between US & India. 6/8 What’s your take on GAIL’s US LNG strategy? 1️⃣ Bullish on US LNG exports 🐂 2️⃣ Bearish on LNG prices post-2026 🐻 3️⃣ Waiting for more clarity ↔️ Vote below! 🗳️👇 7/7 – YOUR TRADING PLAYBOOK • Short-Term: Watch for volatility in LNG stocks (like LNG, Venture Global). GAIL might see a spike on renewed interest. • Long-Term: Growing LNG supply + India’s energy push = potential contrarian bet on energy stocks before the broader market catches up.
NSE:GAILLong
by DCAChampion
Crude Oil Analysis near resistance areaAs the market continues to react to various economic indicators and geopolitical developments, Crude Oil prices are currently at a pivotal point. Below are two potential scenarios based on the current market conditions. Current Analysis: Crude Oil is currently facing a critical resistance zone between $71.5 and $72.8. Based on the price action and market sentiment, I foresee two potential scenarios: Scenario 1: Bearish Reversal Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is strong. Expected Movement: If the price fails to break through this resistance, I anticipate a rebound, leading to a decline towards the $68-$69 area. Action Plan: Entry Signal: Monitor for bearish price action signals, such as a Shooting Star or a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, indicating a potential reversal. Entry Point: Enter a short position upon confirmation of the bearish signal. Target: Set a target at the $68-$69 range. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $72.8 to manage risk effectively. Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is weak. Expected Movement: If the price successfully breaks above this resistance, I expect it to rally towards the $77-$77.5 area. Action Plan: Entry Signal: Wait for a confirmed close above $72.8, ideally accompanied by a strong bullish candle (preferably a long green candle) to validate the breakout. Entry Point: Enter a long position upon confirmation of the breakout. Target: Set a target in the $78-$79 range. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $71.5 to protect against potential reversals. Summary The key levels to watch are $71.5 and $72.8 for potential reversals or breakouts. I will wait for confirmation through price action signals befare takeing a decision.
NYMEX:CL1!
by dPEngineering
WTI Oil H4 | Approaching pullback resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 71.95 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 73.50 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 69.58 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed lower as the market digested the Employment Trends Index (ETI) report. On the weekly chart, a sell signal is in play, yet the index remains within a range-bound structure. Until it reclaims the 5-week moving average, any upside move could still face rejection. On the daily chart, the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning the buy signal remains intact. A critical moment is approaching: will the index break below the 20-day and 60-day moving average golden cross, or will it regain bullish momentum? If a daily sell signal emerges, downside targets extend toward 20,940, where the Bollinger Band lower boundary and 120-day moving average converge. Although a gap-down occurred today, as long as the daily buy signal holds, traders should approach this market with a range-bound mindset rather than assuming a strong breakdown. On the 240-minute chart, the index encountered resistance at the upper range boundary. A bearish engulfing candle triggered a sell signal, but since both the MACD and Signal line remain above the zero line, this still suggests a range-bound market. Buying dips and selling rallies remain the most effective strategy. Market volatility is increasing following Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on most countries. Additionally, Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release could be a major catalyst—keep it in mind when positioning. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, bouncing off support on the daily chart. The weekly chart shows strong support at the 20-week moving average, making further downside moves challenging. The $70–71 zone remains an attractive buy area, and with the weekly buy signal still intact, traders should avoid aggressive short-selling. On the daily chart, oil has yet to reclaim the 5-day moving average, and the MACD remains below the zero line, while the Signal line is still above it, indicating a mixed market structure. Given the potential for a bullish MACD crossover, long positions remain more favorable. The ideal price action scenario would involve a push to the 10-day moving average, a pullback to retest the $70–71 range, and then a double-bottom formation, leading to a strong upside breakout. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has re-emerged, suggesting a short-term bottom formation. Additionally, MACD bullish divergence is forming, reinforcing the bullish case. Selling into weakness should be avoided, while buying dips remains the preferred strategy. Gold Gold closed higher but formed a long upper wick, indicating selling pressure at the highs. On the weekly chart, gold is trading above the Bollinger Band upper boundary, placing it in overbought territory. At the start of the week, traders should avoid chasing highs and instead focus on buying pullbacks at key support levels. If gold continues to extend gains, shorting near the highs could be an option. However, volatility is expected to increase due to key data releases: Wednesday: U.S. CPI Thursday: U.S. PPI On the daily chart, the long wick suggests that gold may enter a consolidation phase around 2,900. If the 5-day moving average is lost, a 10-day moving average pullback could set up a range-bound structure. The MACD is in the process of narrowing toward the signal line, indicating that a corrective phase may occur this week. Buying pullbacks remains the preferred approach. On the 240-minute chart, gold has broken above previous highs, but the MACD is declining, signaling bearish divergence. Now that a sell signal has emerged, the MACD is shifting lower. In the short term, selling rallies remains more favorable, while long positions should only be considered near strong demand zones. Given the CPI release on Wednesday, gold may remain range-bound until then. Stay cautious, and trade within the range. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 21550 / 21470 / 21420 / 21340 / 21220 -Sell Levels: 21680 / 21715 / 21800 / 21900 Crude Oil - Range-Bound Market -Buy Levels: 70.70 / 70.30 / 69.80 / 69.20 -Sell Levels: 71.30 / 71.80 / 72.50 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2885 / 2878 / 2873 / 2862 / 2856 -Sell Levels: 2906 / 2917 / 2926 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 70 should be bigger support and I expect more sideways movement here. It is somewhat lower probability than bears continuing with the selling because bulls managed to go above the prior day’s bar exactly two times in the last 15 trading days. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 75 bull case: Bulls need to print some consecutive bull bars or the selling won’t stop. Their first target is to test up to 72 and the daily 20ema and then test the bear trend line from 79.45. Bulls have going for them that market is not making meaningful lower lows and new lows are bought. Still, best they can hope for next week is to go sideways between 70 - 73. Invalidation is below 69.7. bear case: Bears are selling any bounce harder than bulls are buying new lows. They prevent bulls from printing any decent bull bar or even consecutive bars above the 4h 20ema. They also have going for them that the volume during the selling is much greater than during the pull-backs. For now bears are still in full control and they are favored for lower prices. Problem for them is that 70 is a big round number and also above the trading that the market stayed in from October to December. Selling close to 70 is a bad sell and unless we get bearish oil news, we can expect bears to wait for pull-backs to 72 or 73 before selling again. Invalidation is above 75. short term: Neutral for now. No interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear channel
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds