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Leap Ahead with a Regression Breakout on Crude OilThe Leap Trading Competition: Your Chance to Shine TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Crude Oil (CL) and Micro Crude Oil (MCL), giving traders access to one of the most actively traded commodities in the world. Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration . This article breaks down a structured trade idea using linear regression breakouts, Fibonacci retracements, and UnFilled Orders (UFOs) to identify a long setup in Crude Oil Futures. Hopefully, this structured approach aligns with the competition’s requirements and gives traders a strong trade plan to consider. Best of luck to all participants. Spotting the Opportunity: A Regression Breakout in CL Futures Trend reversals often present strong trading opportunities. One way to detect these shifts is by analyzing linear regression channels—a statistical tool that identifies the general price trend over a set period. In this case, a 4-hour CL chart shows that price has violated the upper boundary of a downward-sloping regression channel, suggesting the potential start of an uptrend. When such a breakout aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and existing UnFilled Orders (UFOs), traders may gain a potential extra edge in executing a structured trade plan. The Trade Setup: Combining Fibonacci and a Regression Channel This trade plan incorporates multiple factors to define an entry, stop loss, and target: o Entry Zone: An entry or pullback to the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, between 74.60 and 73.14, provides a reasonable long entry. o Stop Loss: Placed below 73.14 to ensure a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. o Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at 76.05 (38.2% Fibonacci level) Second target at 77.86 (23.6% Fibonacci level) Final target at 78.71, aligning with a key UFO resistance level This approach locks in profits along the way while allowing traders to capitalize on an extended move toward the final resistance zone. Contract Specifications and Margin Considerations Understanding contract specifications and margin requirements is essential when trading futures. Below are the key details for CL and MCL: o Crude Oil Futures (CL) Contract Details Full contract specs: CL Contract Specifications – CME Group Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($10 per tick) Margin requirements vary based on market conditions and broker requirements. Currently set around $5,800. o Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Contract Details Full contract specs: MCL Contract Specifications – CME Group Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($1 per tick) Lower margin requirements for more flexible risk control. Currently set around $580. Choosing between CL and MCL depends on risk tolerance and account size. MCL provides more flexibility for smaller accounts, while CL offers higher liquidity and contract value. Execution and Market Conditions To maximize trade efficiency, conservative traders could wait for a proper price action into the entry zone and confirm the setup using momentum indicators and/or volume trends.   Key Considerations Before Entering Ensure price reaches the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone before executing the trade Look for confirmation signals such as increased volume, candlestick formations, or additional support zones Be patient—forcing a trade without confirmation increases risk exposure Final Thoughts This Crude Oil Futures trade setup integrates multiple confluences—a regression breakout, Fibonacci retracements, and UFO resistance—to create a structured trade plan with defined risk management. For traders participating in The Leap Trading Competition, this approach emphasizes disciplined execution, dynamic risk management, and a structured scaling-out strategy, all essential components for long-term success. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
9
USOIL Trade Update📢 FX:USOIL Trade Update Hey Traders! Following recent fundamental and technical developments, we’re seeing strong bullish momentum on Crude Oil. 🔹 Fundamentals: Trump's new tariffs are driving market sentiment, pushing oil prices higher. Despite last week’s excess supply from the US oil stock inventory, Crude held strong at $72 and failed to close below the 38.2% Fib level, signaling strong buy pressure. 🔹 Technicals: The descending channel breakout confirms a bullish reversal. This rally was triggered by the tariff remarks, and if more tariffs are imposed, we could see Crude pushing towards $80+ in the coming weeks. 🎯 Plan of Action: We’ll be looking for buy/long positions on market open (Monday), ahead of the next Crude Oil inventory report. Regardless of the report outcome, momentum suggests higher prices for the black gold. 📊 Stay ready, and trade smarter! 🚀
FX:USOILLong
by niclaxfx
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market is probably finding a bottom here around 72 and on the 4h chart this looks like a lower low major trend reversal. Confirmation would only be above 74 though. So any longs with stop below 71.8 are a good trade from the current structure. Bears have tried to make meaningful lower lows but the Monday low 72.39 was only broken by 47 ticks. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 80 bull case: Bulls let it go a bit below 74 but it does look like they want to buy this more aggressively, given the last 2 big bull bars from Friday. They need to make higher highs now and then I don’t think many bears want to fight this after they have tried to get the market below 71 for a whole week. The 50% retracement for the complete bull trend was around 74 and for the bear leg from 79 down to 72 is around 76. So my first target for the bulls is finding acceptance above 74 and then 76. On the weekly chart you can see than bulls kept it way above the breakout price of 69, so once we are seeing decent 1h closes above 73, they have taken control of the market again. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Bears want to continue sideways between 71 and 74. The longer they do this, the better for them because we are still below the daily 20ema. Market has gone nowhere the past 5 days but at least the bears closed 4 out of 5 days red. Their issue is, that they can not find sellers below 72 so the market will try only so many times at a support price before it tries the other way or strongly breaks below it. I do think we will see a bigger impulse either on Monday or Tuesday and my money is not on the bears right now. Invalidation is above 75. short term: Slightly bullish until we get a 1h close above 74, then really bullish for 78/80. Bearish only below 71 and on very strong selling pressure. Neutral 71 - 74. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: None chart update: Added broken bear trend line and possible very shallow bull trend lines on higher tf.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ NASDAQ filled the gap and closed lower after facing resistance. As mentioned last Friday, the 21,911 level was a likely resistance zone due to the nature of the gap. This resistance played a significant role, and coincidentally, concerns over tariffs imposed by former President Trump on Mexico and Canada intensified, leading to a decline into the afternoon session. Since the monthly candle has closed, let's first analyze the monthly chart. Last month, I mentioned that a decline to the 5-day moving average (20,880) was possible before a rebound, and indeed, the index rebounded from 20,700. Given that the price sequentially bounced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages after breaking out of the monthly range, this month presents a challenging situation for determining direction. While further upside is possible, the monthly MACD may attempt to reduce its gap with the signal line, making a strong rally less likely. If a sharp rally occurs, the upper Bollinger Band at 22,736 should be considered as resistance. On the downside, the monthly 5-day moving average at 21,084 may be tested this month. Since the market could move in either direction, chasing momentum on the monthly chart should be approached with caution. On the weekly chart, a sell signal remains active, with the MACD failing to cross above the signal line, suggesting that further downside remains likely. On the daily chart, while the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, today's bearish candle close may trigger a sell signal, opening the possibility of a move toward the lower Bollinger Band and the 120-day moving average. If the MACD does not break down and instead turns higher while the price rises, it will be crucial to see if the 21,911 gap is decisively broken and closed with a bullish candle. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal is still in place, and the index remains in a large range. Buying on dips remains favorable, but if a sell signal appears, the current moving average setup suggests a high probability of sharp declines. This week, Google's earnings report on Tuesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday are key events to watch. Additionally, with the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies increasing market volatility, traders should manage leverage carefully and remain cautious. Crude Oil Oil closed near breakeven but surged in after-hours trading following reports that Canadian energy imports may face new tariffs. On the monthly chart, oil remains within a range, but the MACD is persistently attempting to cross above the signal line. Last month’s breakout from a four-month consolidation range suggests that buying on dips at the 3-day moving average may be a favorable strategy. On the weekly chart, the buy signal remains intact. Despite some pullback, the large gap between the MACD and the signal line suggests that a sharp breakdown is unlikely. On the daily chart, as previously mentioned, the $72 level remains a strong buy zone. The MACD is in a steep downtrend, but given the presence of prior demand zones and the 240-day moving average acting as support, a technical rebound could be strong after two weeks of declines. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has bounced off the signal line, forming a bullish divergence, making long positions more favorable. Given the characteristics of the 240-day moving average, a rebound toward $74.50 is technically reasonable. Overall, buying on dips remains a preferred approach, but market volatility is increasing due to geopolitical uncertainties, so trade cautiously. Gold Gold pulled back as profit-taking emerged after a sharp rally, closing lower after finding support at the 3-day moving average. On the monthly chart, gold formed a strong bullish breakout candle, making dips toward the 3-day moving average (2,770) a favorable buying opportunity this month. A pullback to this level should be expected. On the weekly chart, a buy signal appeared last week, but the MACD’s lower value compared to the previous peak suggests a potential bearish divergence. This means that despite breaking above prior highs, if the MACD fails to confirm with strong upward momentum, the rally may weaken. Caution is advised when chasing momentum. On the daily chart, today is a key day for buy setups near the 5-day moving average, making a pullback likely. However, the broader trend remains bullish, so rather than shorting, traders should look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks at key support levels. On the 240-minute chart, gold is facing resistance and declining. The MACD is at a high level, meaning even if a bearish crossover occurs, attempts to move higher may persist. Buying near support remains the preferred approach. With Trump’s increasing policy activity and China’s Deepseek issues, market volatility is expected to rise. Always prioritize risk management and trade safely. Wishing you a successful trading month! ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Bullish Market -Buy : 21,530 / 21,460 / 21,420 / 21,370 / 21,290 -Sell : 21,590 / 21,690 / 21,775 / 21,850 / 21,930 Crude Oil - Range Market -Buy : 73.50 / 72.90 / 72.40 / 72.00 -Sell : 74.50 / 75.00 / 76.00 / 76.40 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy : 2,825 / 2,820 / 2,812 / 2,807 / 2,804 -Sell : 2,841 / 2,846 / 2,852 / 2,856 / 2,860 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
USOIL What Next? BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the USOIL next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 73.75 Bias -Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 76.36 My Stop Loss - 72.34 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILLong
by AnabelSignals
4
WTI on high time frame "Dear traders, concerning WTI, the price has touched $73 and has been technically rejected from this level. Candle formations on higher time frames suggest a potential increase in price. Considering the political and geopolitical factors outlined in this article (www.tradingview.com), if the price can hold above the $73 zone, my view is that the next target could be $76." If you have any specific questions or need further assistance with your message, please let me know!
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by somayehbasiri
2
Energy Policy and USDWTIKey Entry Points: Ideal Entry: $78 (Sell Position) The $78 level was an optimal sell entry, primarily due to the declaration of emergency in the energy sector made by the new administration. This policy move is expected to increase energy production significantly. The current administration is heavily investing in the energy sector to mitigate price increases in other sectors, combat inflation, and maintain or reduce it. This macroeconomic context highlights why $78 was a strategic sell zone. Current Entry Opportunity: $74 (Sell Position) From a technical analysis perspective, $74 is a notable resistance level. While this level carries more risk compared to $78, it presents a viable sell opportunity due to price inefficiency beginning at this point. Observing the daily chart, we notice an efficient bearish trend with a clear price inefficiency that originated at $74. This inefficiency creates a strong resistance zone, making it a reasonable point for continuation to the downside. Technical Analysis Across Timeframes: Daily Chart: The current bearish trend remains intact. The inefficiency at $74 reinforces the case for selling at this level. While not as secure as the $78 zone, it offers a good probability for a continuation to lower levels. Weekly Chart: The market is currently in an impulsive phase. However, no significant support or resistance zones are evident within this timeframe. This lack of structural confirmation increases the risk of entering at this level. Monthly Chart: The monthly chart shows a clear rejection from a downward resistance. This reinforces the bearish outlook and aligns with the target at $70.80, which represents a strong support level.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by Wiiso
TARIFFS Will Lead To Inflation!? NOPE!So many talking heads crying TARIFFS will be inflationary, but it’s mostly uneducated fear-mongering. Let’s look at the cold, hard USIRYY and CPI data to figure out the truth behind this. From March 2018 through September 2019, President Trump had eight waves of tariff announcements on C-H-I-N-A, plus some steel and aluminum ones on Mexico and Canada. In order to combat these inflation worries, Trump did what he said he was going to do… DRILL BABY DRILL. For the first time since 1949, the US would be a net exporter of oil. We can see there was a quick spike in inflation from stockpiling imports before tariffs were fully implemented, but inflation quickly plummeted nearly in half as the US became a net exporter. Fast-forward to today, and coincidentally inflation is at 2.9% which is right around where it was when Trump imposed the tariffs during his last presidency. Funny how that works out, eh ;) Trump has declared the US will DRILL BABY DRILL bigger than ever, which should lead us to believe that this time is NOT different and inflation will go down again.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by jonnieking
4
Weekly Market Forecast Feb 2-7thThis is an outlook for the week of Feb 2-7th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: ES \ S&P 500 NQ | NASDAQ 100 YM | Dow Jones 30 GC |Gold SiI | Silver PL | Platinum HG | Copper The indices were not easy to trade last week, as there were plenty of fundamentals at play. However, they are relatively still strong, and I am looking for further gains next week. NFP week, imo, is best traded Mon-Wed. Thurs will likely see consolidation until the NFP news announcement Friday morning. I will look to fade the news release on Friday for NY Session. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RT_Money
The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, DXY & Nasdaq for Feb 1 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix. Disclaimer The information provided in this content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Trading financial markets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and should conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions. The creator of this content assumes no liability for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the information provided. By engaging with this content, you acknowledge and accept these risks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Tradius_Trades
WTI - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast: While the price is above the support 64.000, resumption of uptrend is expected. We make sure when the resistance at 80.100 breaks. If the support at 64.000 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of uptrend- will be invalid. Technical analysis: A trough is formed in daily chart at 66.510 on 11/18/2024, so more gains to resistance(s) 75.446, 77.920 and maximum to Major Resistance (80.100) is expected. Take Profits: 75.446 77.920 80.100 83.961 87.000 93.882 100.802 109.192 126.350 __________________________________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 BOOST button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! 🙏 Your Support is appreciated! Let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by ForecastCity
20
Will Oil jump against Trump's requests?On a technical perspective, Oil could reverse from the current price and start to climb again targeting buyside, as we have seen a divergence between Brent and WTI. However, it looks like Brent is weaker and might not be able to validate higher prices. Next week's OPEC meeting could clarify the direction, as I do not believe they will succumb to President Trump's requests of lowering Oil prices massively, and we could be looking for a volatile month.
FX:UKOIL
by microhedgefund
1
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILShort
by ShahedZare