Natural Gas $NG1! - LONG play is ONBullish reversal has just been confirmed.
Final target at previous swing highs.
Long as close as possible to $2.2.
Energy Commodities
USOIL / UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Recent Decline , Prices began to drop at the end of September by 7.12%. This indicates a noticeable downtrend, which could be driven by various market factors.
Support Level at 67.22 , Currently, prices are trading slightly above this key support level. If the price breaks below 67.22, it may trigger a further decline of 9.80%.
Potential for Rebound , If the support level holds, a potential rise could occur. Two potential rise targets are a 3.48% increase and a 6.27% increase, depending on how strong the support level is and whether positive momentum returns.
Technical Analysis:
Current Support Level , The price of USOIL is currently above 67.22. This level serves as a critical support point; if prices remain above this, it suggests bullish sentiment.
Target Range (FVG) , If prices hold above 67.22, the analysis predicts an upward movement toward a Fair Value Gap (FVG) area between 68.73 and 69.48. This implies potential buying interest or liquidity in that range.
Further Resistance , If the price breaks through the FVG area, it could rise further to reach a resistance level at 71.74. This indicates a bullish outlook if the upward momentum continues.
Conversely, if the price drops below 67.22, it suggests a bearish trend, potentially declining to 65.24. This indicates a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish.
MCL: One-Two Punch Could Lift Crude Oil to Higher GroundNYMEX: Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! )
On September 18th, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rate by a supersized 50 basis points, ushering a long-awaited monetary easing cycle.
Six days later, on September 24th, China introduced a broad stimulus package to revive its economy. It includes cutting interest rates, reducing bank reserve requirements, supporting the property sector, and injecting liquidity into the stock market. Specifically,
• The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, cut its 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% from 1.7%
• The PBOC slashed the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5%
• The PBOC lowered home mortgage downpayment requirements to 15%; previously, those buying houses other than primary residence were required to put down 25%
• Separately, the PBOC would advise banks to lower mortgage interest rate by 0.5%
• The PBOC also announced a new RMB $1 trillion long-term credit facility (equivalent to US$143 billion). It allows financial institutions to use their stocks, bonds and ETF funds as collateral to obtain funding from the PBOC. The use of fund is specifically earmarked for credit lending to publicly traded companies for stock buyback
Each of these policies is a major stimulus measure. Putting together, they have the potential to reshape the economic outlook for China, and for the rest of the world as well.
Following the announcement, Chinese stock markets clocked their best week in 16 years as the CSI 300 rallied 15.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index recorded a weekly gain of 12.75%. On Friday, the CSI 300 climbed 4.47% to close at 3,703.68, its highest level in a year, while the HSI rose 3.32% to 20,586.94, its highest since February 2023.
On Monday, September 30th, China’s SSE Composite Index rallied 8.06%, closing at 3,336.50. This marks a nine-day winning streak, its best day since September 2008 and its highest point since August 2023.
In 2024, China’s economy has slowed significantly. Last week, China released its industrial profit data for August, which saw a 17.8% plunge year on year. On a year-to-date basis, profits at large industrial firms grew at 0.5% to 4.65 trillion yuan ($663.47 billion) for the first eight months, down from 3.6%.
However, China’s supersized monetary policies could help its economy turn a corner. It is highly expected that China’s Ministry of Finance will follow suit to announce new fiscal stimulus and add more ammunition to fuel economic growth.
Together, the extraordinary measures installed by the Top 2 economies, which account for 40% of global GDP, could help improve the global economy in a meaningful way.
WTI Crude Oil: Higher Demand from Economic Growth
While it is still too early to quantify how much the global economy would benefit from these stimulus measures, we could expect higher industrial output from the government credit extension and the lower business cost of capital. The potential impact could be huge for stocks, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities. Today, my analysis concentrates on crude oil.
The Fed rate cut and China Stimulus package both exceeded market expectations. These are game changers big enough to reverse the declining trend of crude oil prices. Recent escalation of Middle East conflict would only add to the uncertainty of oil supply.
In my opinion, WTI could reclaim the previous levels of $76, $83 and $89, consequently. The expected stimulus from China’s Ministry of Finance and the November 6th FOMC rate cut could support the upward trend if they meet or exceed market expectations.
The recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report confirms a shift to the long positions:
• As of September 24th, total open interest (OI) of WTI futures was 2,242,432 contracts
• Managed Money held 210,469 long and 48,541 short, a 4.3-to-1 ratio
• Compared to the previous week, the long positions increased by 24,734, while the shorts decreased by 3,969 contracts; this shows a bullish view building up
For someone with a bullish view of crude oil, he could establish a long position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). The contract has a notional value of 100 barrels. At 1/10 the size of benchmark WTI Crude Oil contracts, Micro WTI futures offer the same robust trading transparency and price discovery with smaller margin requirements. At Friday closing price of $68.63, each November contract (MCLX) is worth $6,863. CME Group requires an initial margin of $596 for each MCL contract, long or short.
Hypothetically, if WTI bounced back to $76.88, its previous high on August 5th, the price increase of $8.25 would produce a gain of $825 (=8.25x100) for a long position.
The risk of buying crude oil is that the follow-up government stimulus packages were less than market expectations, which could undermine the growth forecast. To hedge the downside risk, an experienced trader could consider the use of put options on WTI crude oil futures.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NATGAS - DOUBLE BOTTOMHello Traders !
The NATGAS price formed a double bottom pattern
Currently, The neckline is broken !
The resistance line was also broken !
So, I expect a bullish move 🚀
_________________
TARGET: 2.655🎯
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Intraday Bearish Confirmation
Update for WTI Crude Oil.
Earlier, I share a very bearish setup on a daily.
Analyzing the intraday time frames today, I spotted
a strong bearish confirmation on an hourly.
Retesting a recently broken horizontal resistance,
the price dropped and violated a support line of a rising wedge pattern.
It is an important sign of strength of the sellers.
With a high probability, the price will drop at least to 67.15 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Fundamental factors have the main impact on the WTI trendTVC:USOIL ended up slightly higher last Friday but fell more than 3% for the week as markets gauged expectations for increased global supply and considered new stimulus measures from major countries in Asia, which import leading crude oil exporter.
- On one hand, OPEC+ plans to start increasing production in December, which has been particularly suppressive on oil prices and was the main negative factor for the oil market last week.
- On the other hand, the withdrawal of many stimulus policies by major powers, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further and the escalating conflict in the Middle East still provide some support for oil prices.
Central banks of major Asian countries cut reserve requirements and interest rates last Friday, and governments of major Asian countries are launching a final round of stimulus to boost growth. The economy returns to the target of about 5% this year.
Israel said it bombed Houthi rebel targets in Yemen on Sunday (September 29) and continued airstrikes in Lebanon, expanding its alliance with Iran in the region two days after killing the leader of Hezbollah. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during the confrontation.
On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL Currently trading quite stable after recovering from the support level of 67.26USD. Note to readers in the previous issue. The recovery momentum is also being limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the horizontal resistance level of 69.31USD.
However, looking at the overall technical picture, WTI crude oil is having more bearish conditions with the main trend from the price channel, pressure from EMA21 and weak recovery momentum when the RSI Strength Index turns down. price reduction signal.
In the near term, if WTI crude oil continues to be sold below the important technical level at 67.26USD it is likely to continue to decline more with a target level of 65.25USD. Even if WTI crude oil recovers further, it will still be limited by the EMA21, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper edge of the price channel.
The bearish trend in WTI crude oil dominates the daily technical chart, and notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 67.26USD
Resistance: 68.74 – 69.31USD
Trade idea - USOIL LongBullish impulse / new HH: indication.
Inverse Head & Shoulders: Confirmation.
Clear support & resistance zone is there.
1H perspective: Corrective approach towards entry zone.
= Buy limit.
OIL Short - Don't Slip On Your Longs BoysHey everybody, so while obviously the media is all about the Israel conflict I think we are still far away from being at the bottom. We just wicked today, on a monday, the friday high, started to show some major rejection signs which gives me the green light for a short "experiment" to finally wick the low weekly and daily levels. Remember boys, the best trades appear when the masses got stop out, not the other way around.
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 67.14 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 65.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 72.15 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?USOUSD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 70.48
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 72.55
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 67.99
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Natural Gas Price Forecast | Oil, Dollar, Silver, GoldNatural Gas stock Bulls PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS Support & Resistance Guide
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#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: 50% pullback is around 68.20 and we are at 68.18. I favor the bulls that they printed a higher low major trend reversal here and 67 will hold. The pattern on the 1h looks like market is forming a round bottom which could lead to a big cup & handle pattern. If they get above 69 on Monday, I do expect 71.5 quickly after an likely a hit of the bear trend line around 72.5. Below 66.8 bears are favored for retest of 65.
Quote from last week:
comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden.
comment: Bears finally came around last week and got a decent pullback to the 50% pullback from the recent bull leg. At 68.20 market is in total balance and I can’t be anything but neutral. I do think bulls are slightly favored and the 67 low could very well hold. Above 69 I favor the bulls, below 67 the bears.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 64-74
bull case: Bulls want this to be a higher low major trend reversal and 67 to hold. If they manage that, they can print up to 73 to test the bear trend line starting mid July. As of now, we are at the 50% pb and the pattern does not give you any confirmation. You have to wait for it or trade in the probability with a potentially higher reward if you take the long here. Bulls need to stay above 67 though.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: Bears printed decent bear bars Wednesday & Thursday and it’s reasonable to expect more sideways movement because they want to retest 65 or lower. Same argument for the bears as for the bulls, we are at the 50% pb and there is no confirmation for either side. Below 67 bulls could have their stops and would wait for 64/65 before longing this again.
Invalidation is above 69.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength.
→ Last Sunday we traded 71 and now we are at 68.18. 4h ema buy worked on Monday but then it stopped on Wednesday. Meh outlook.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 69 and bearish below 67.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77.
current swing trade: None
chart update: removed broken bull trend lines
61.69% Probability for Bullish USOIL TP!Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Outlook:
- OPEC+ Production Cuts: OPEC+ has implemented production cuts to stabilize oil prices, which can lead to a tighter supply and potentially higher prices for crude oil.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly in oil-producing regions, can disrupt supply chains, leading to increased prices as markets react to potential shortages.
- Economic Recovery Signals: As global economies continue to recover from the pandemic, demand for oil is expected to rise, further supporting bullish sentiment in the market.
By combining a bullish bias with a probabilistic approach to trading, I aim to position myself advantageously in the market while managing risks effectively.
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below!
2W:
2H:
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
CRUDE OIL PULLBACK AHEAD|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL surged again to retest the resistance of 69.00$
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bearish pullback and a move down
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
USOIL Will Explode! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on USOIL and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 68.57 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 69.75
Safe Stop Loss - 67.83
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CRUDE OIL Risky Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is making a
Bullish correction but
Will soon hit a horizontal
Resistance level of 69.00$
From where we will be
Expecting a local
Bearish move down
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Crude Oil upside Target 71.70Crude oil is presenting a promising buying opportunity as it approaches a crucial support level at $66. This level has demonstrated significant resilience, making it an ideal point for traders looking to enter the market. Our target for this trade is set at $71.70, which aligns with key resistance levels that could be tested as the market moves upward.
In addition, our proprietary indicator has signaled a buying opportunity on the daily chart, further validating our bullish stance. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add another layer of urgency, as such instability often drives oil prices higher due to supply concerns.
As we navigate through these market dynamics, now is an opportune time to consider adding crude oil to your portfolio. Keep an eye on price action around the $66 support, and be prepared for potential upward momentum towards our target of $71.70.
Buying at Current Label
Stoploss - 66
First Target 70
Second Target 71
Third Target 71.70
USOIL: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily USOIL prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 67.88
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
USOil liquidity sweep expected below 60.00 level**Monthly Chart (Bearish)**
USOil August 2024 monthly candle closed bearish. Sept monthly candle is also closing lower and suggesting a move lower to at least test 61.00 to 60.00 levels.
**Weekly Chart (Bearish)**
Last week's candle closed bearish indicating a continuation of the bearish move at least to take the liquidity below 64.00 level.
**Daily Chart (Bearish)**
Crude Oil (US Oil) looks bearish after testing 72.00 level for the second time last week which created a double top on the daily chart at the test of the liquidity pool before moving lower. This week, we will be looking at a slight fullback at least to 69.00 before resuming the move lower to target the 64.00 level and then below the 62.00 level.
BRENT CRUDE OIL may drop in price by as much as -65%Today we would like to share my opinion on the possible price of Brent Crude Oil in the coming years, analyzing the chart on a monthly timeframe
The war in Ukraine is not just a war between the two countries, it is a geopolitical problem that will affect all world economies.
The world's economies have not yet recovered from the Covid-19, and here is another blow.
Expensive energy will stop buying due to the excessive cost of production of "everything", the purchasing power of the population falls. Declining demand for oil will bring down the price.
The fall in the price of Brent oil -25% in the coming months in the area of $78-80 per barrel will be just the beginning.
But looking at the schedule, is striking the price zone of $36-46 to be a strong mirror level and this is -65% of the current price
Maybe this is a fair price for oil, from where a total restart of the world economy can take place by purchasing cheap energy resources.
Perhaps this is symbolic, but for the first time on the historical price chart of Brent, the zone of $36-46 was established as important when there were powerful geopolitical world changes: 1979-1980 - the Islamic Revolution and 1990-1991 - the collapse of the USSR
Bitcoin Next Stop 68K!Traders,
In this video:
00:00 - Housekeeping. Thank you all for the polling responses. Greatly appreciated and helps determine site direction tremendously. Quite a few site changes have already been implemented. I will discuss these as well as added new features, services, and what my new indicator system is showing us.
00:08 - The weekly technical analysis and price trajectory for the next few weeks
OIL CRASH!as you can see on the medium to long term USOIL is going to 50 and then 25 based on chart pattern
