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Energy Commodities

Natural Gas waking up? Nat gas showed some poise today. Holding green in a red market where most commodities saw negative price action. This is impressive to see because Nat gas has a long historical trend of diverging from many commodities. The price action today also saw a red to green reversal further emphasizing the positive potential trend shift. Nat gas stocks were discounted today despite the stronger price action in the commodity. We remain bullish and long UNG, our call positions in the money.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
WTI Rises Above $84.50 Amid Summer Demand ExpectationsWith the peak of the summer travel season, marked by the Independence Day holiday this week, US oil demand is expected to surge. The American Automobile Association (AAA) projects travel during this period to be 5.2% higher than in 2023, with car travel alone increasing by 4.8% compared to the previous year, according to Reuters. Crude oil markets are further supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Israel-Palestinian Hamas conflict continues to create volatility in energy markets. Investors are concerned that a potential cross-border spillover could involve direct action from Iran, a Hamas supporter, threatening crude oil supplies and logistical stability in the region. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the steepest week-on-week decline in US Weekly Crude Oil Stocks in nearly two years. API data showed a significant weekly decrease of -9.163 million barrels, far exceeding the forecasted -150K drawdown and following the previous week’s -3 million barrel decline. Given our forecast, we are currently considering a short position in the supply area. Typically, crude oil production for summer demand occurs in the preceding months, leading to higher oil prices before the summer season. Our seasonality analysis indicates that crude oil prices generally decline in trading from the end of July through September. Therefore, we are now looking for a short position. ✅ Please share your thoughts about WTI in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by FOREXN1
1
USOIL / TRADING BELOW FVG AREA - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME The overall trend is downward , until trading below FVG . As long as prices stay below the turning level of 74.78, a decline is expected, potentially reaching the support level (1) at 73.03, and then 71.51. However, if prices break above the turning level and close a 4-hour candle above it, the trend may shift upward, with potential to reach the resistance level at 76.18. Breaking this resistance could lead to further gains, targeting 77.52. KEY LEVELS : TURNING LEVEL : 74.78 RESISTANCE LEVELS : 76.18 , 77.52 SUPPORT LEVELS :73.03 , 71.51
TVC:USOILShort
by ArinaKarayi
USOIL - Retest at 76.55 Before Bullish Momentum Aims for 79.49 Market Update: Retest and Bullish Continuation Expected The price has already reached the resistance zone at 77.95, as noted in our previous analysis. Now, the price is expected to retest the 76.55 level before resuming its bullish trend towards 79.49. Bullish Scenario: For the bullish trend to continue, the price should stabilize above 77.94, targeting 79.49, with further potential to reach 80.73. Bearish Scenario: If the price stabilizes below 77.94, it could support a decline toward 76.55 and possibly down to 73.35. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 77.94 - Support Levels: 76.55, 75.35, 72.72 - Resistance Levels: 79.49, 80.73, 82.20 Today's Expected Range: The price is anticipated to move between the support at 75.35 and the resistance at 82.20.
TVC:USOIL
by SroshMayi
Oil baby, common you can do it! Do it!FA: Historically, when the Fed rate is lowered in the U.S., there is one very simple pattern - the collapse of commodities! Of course, there are nuances related to the rate of downgrade.... Prices do not start falling at once... most often there is a time lag from 2-3 months to 8 months. It is important to understand the following... The USA controls oil prices (directly or indirectly - but the fact remains). Oil reserves in the states are low but last report showed very nice numbers (actual -0.8M vs forecast -2.7M) Now catch the train of thought: US will start a cycle of rate cuts- US has more than enough oil reserves - historically rate cuts are a drop in oil prices TA: After aggressive movement till 4h gap, price went down as expected with first MS, then price went up to test BTS zone and made second shift (BoS) and came into bullish 4h fvg. Now there are 3 options: 1 - move higher till 4h fvg into premium , rebalance and final move till EQL at 71.4$ area 2 - fail 73.3 area from market opening with potential move downwards till EQL 3 - Breaking above 4h FVG with target at 77.55$, this option can be considered only after closing above 4h fvg on 1h+ time frame with candle's body
TVC:USOIL
by Almenio
WTI OIL formed 1st 1W Death Cross in 4.5 years!The last long-term signal (July 09, see chart below) on WTI Oil (USOIL) was a rejection (sell) at the top of the former Triangle (Lower Highs trend-line): The price not only broke below both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but also the bottom of the Triangle. The result this week is the formation of a 1W Death Cross, the first one since the COVID crash back in March 2020! Naturally this is a strong bearish signal, which will be confirmed if the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line. If it does we may see a fatal market collapse, as this is a cyclical signal (observe the Sine Waves). In May 2009, it was invalid as the Housing Crisis preceded it, in November 2014 it was halfway through the sell-off of the Oil Crisis and Chinese economic slowdown and in March 2020 it came earlier relative to the previous two but still after the price broke below the Higher Lows trend-line. As a result, this trend-line is of the utmost importance currently and only if broken (and close a 1M candle below it) can we consider a similar collapse. If it does, we expect at least $45.00, on the way to the Symmetrical Support Zone test. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
BRENT Crude Oil Bullish robbery PlanMy Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Newbies, This is our master plan to Heist BRENT Crude Oil based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Thief_Trader
USOIL : Weekly Technical AnalysisHi Traders! Crude oil prices declined on Tuesday due to demand concerns driven by weak economic growth in China, the world's biggest crude importer. Brent crude fell 1% to US$76.77 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude lost 0.1% to US$73.50/b at last look early Tuesday. Demand concerns offset impacts of the production and export halt at Libya due to a political dispute, Reuters said in a Tuesday report. China's purchasing managers' index hit a six-month low in August and new home prices grew in the month at their weakest pace this year. Meanwhile, Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure at its El Feel oil field from Sept. 2. Total production in the country had dropped to just over 591,000 barrels per day (b/d) as of Aug. 28 from nearly 959,000 b/d on Aug. 26, Reuters reported, citing NOC. However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is reportedly set to proceed with its planned output boost in October regardless of demand concerns, Reuters reported, citing unnamed industry sources. From a technical point of view, the break of the support (left wing) should confirm our bearish harmonic structure and subsequently push the price around $55. If OPEC confirms an increase in production, this element could support our idea. What do you think?
FX:USOILShort
by TheAnonymousBanker
7
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 2-6th: S&P NAS GOLD SILVER US&UK OILThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast SEPT 2nd - 6th In this video, we will cover: S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:BZ1!
by RT_Money
Seasonal Strategies: Trading Natural Gas with a Tactical Edge1. Introduction Natural Gas Futures (NG1! and MNG1!) hold a significant place in the energy market, acting as a key barometer for both seasonal and macroeconomic trends. These futures contracts are not just tools for hedging energy prices but also present potentially lucrative opportunities for traders who understand the underlying seasonal patterns that influence their movement. Seasonality is a powerful concept in trading, particularly in commodities like Natural Gas, where demand and supply fluctuations are often tied to predictable seasonal factors. 2. Understanding Seasonality in Natural Gas Seasonality refers to the predictable changes in price and market behavior that occur at specific times of the year. In the context of commodities like Natural Gas, seasonality is particularly significant due to the cyclical nature of energy consumption and production. Factors such as weather patterns, heating demand in winter, cooling demand in summer, and storage levels contribute to the seasonal price movements observed in Natural Gas Futures. For this analysis, daily data from November 14, 1995, to August 30, 2024, has been meticulously examined. By calculating the 21-day moving average (representing a month) and the 63-day moving average (representing a quarter), bullish and bearish crossovers have been identified. 3. Analyzing Bullish and Bearish Crossovers Bullish and bearish crossovers are critical signals in technical analysis, representing points where momentum shifts from one direction to another. In our analysis of Natural Gas Futures, such crossovers provide a clear indication of the monthly and quarterly trends. The data reveals distinct patterns in the frequency and magnitude of bullish and bearish crossovers across different months: Bullish Crossovers: Certain months, particularly March, April, and September, show a high number of bullish crossovers. This suggests that these months are historically strong for upward price movements, offering potential buying opportunities. Bearish Crossovers: On the other hand, months like May, June, October, and November are marked by a higher frequency of bearish crossovers. These periods have historically seen downward price pressure, which could present short-selling opportunities. The below chart further illustrates these patterns, highlighting the months with the most significant bullish and bearish activity. 4. Key Seasonal Patterns in Natural Gas The analysis of Natural Gas Futures reveals distinct seasonal patterns that vary significantly from month to month. By understanding these patterns, traders can strategically plan to time their trades by aligning with the most opportune periods for either bullish or bearish movements. January to February: Mixed Signals Historically showing a balanced number of bullish and bearish crossovers. This suggests that while there are opportunities for both long and short trades, caution is warranted as the market can be unpredictable during this period. March to April: Bullish Momentum We see a shift towards more bullish activity. While there is still some bearish potential, the overall trend favors upward movements. Traders might consider looking for long opportunities during this period. May to June: Bearish Pressure The market shows signs of bearish pressure indicating a potential shift in momentum. July, August and September: Summer Bulls July and August: The bullish trend tends to be back but with a higher degree of volatility which may involve sudden market reversals. September: Showing frequent up-moves with strong percentages. This month offers opportunities for traders to re-enter the market on the long side. October to December: Volatile and Bearish Bearish momentum and strong down-moves opening the door to shorting opportunities. Traders should be especially cautious in December with very high volatility in both directions. These seasonal patterns provide a roadmap for traders, highlighting the months that are historically more favorable for either long or short positions in Natural Gas Futures. 5. September Seasonality Analysis: A Potential Buying Opportunity September has historically been one of the most bullish months for Natural Gas Futures. Despite the common perception that autumn marks a period of declining demand for natural gas as the summer cooling season ends, the data reveals a different story. Current Market Opportunity Current Price: With the continuous contract of Natural Gas Futures (NG1!) currently trading around 2.18, the historical trends suggest that this could be a valid entry point for traders looking to capitalize on a potential price rally. Historical Patterns: September has witnessed some of the most robust bullish activity, with the data showing a clear pattern of price increases. On average, September has seen up-moves of 36.45%, making it a standout month for bullish opportunities. Trade Setup Entry Point: Entering the market around the current price on NG1! of 2.18. Target Price: Based on the historical average up-move of 36.45%, traders could set a target price around 2.98. Stop Loss: To manage risk, a stop loss could be placed 11.28% below the entry price, around 1.93. Probability of Success: Historical data suggests a high probability for this trade where 11 out of 13 trades produced bullish moves. Conservative Approach For traders seeking a more conservative strategy, setting a target at the UFO resistance level of 2.673 (instead of 2.98) offers a more cautious approach. 6. Trading with a Tactical Edge: Risk-Reward Analysis The risk-reward ratio compares the potential profit of a trade to the potential loss. In our September example: Risk: The stop loss is placed 11.28% below the entry price at 1.93, limiting potential downside. Reward: The target is 36.45% above the entry price at approximately 2.98. This setup offers a risk-reward ratio of about 1:3.2, meaning that for every point of risk, the potential reward is 3.20 points. Such a ratio is generally considered favorable in trading, as it allows for a greater margin of error while still maintaining profitability over time. Point Values for Natural Gas Futures When trading Natural Gas futures, it is essential to understand the point value of the contracts. For standard Natural Gas futures (NG), each point of movement in the price is worth $10,000 per contract. This means that a move from 2.18 to 2.98 represents a potential gain of $8,000 per contract with a potential for risk of $2,500 per contract. For Micro Natural Gas futures (MNG), the point value is one-tenth that of the standard contract, with each point of movement worth $1,000 per contract. Therefore, the for same trade plan, the potential for reward and risk per contract would be $800 and $250 respectively. 7. Discipline and Emotional Control Successful risk management also requires discipline and emotional control. It's essential to stick to your trading plan, avoid impulsive decisions, and manage your emotions, especially during periods of market volatility. Fear and greed are the enemies of successful trading, and maintaining a level-headed approach is crucial for long-term success. 8. Conclusion The analysis of seasonality in Natural Gas Futures reveals a rich landscape of trading opportunities, especially when approached with a tactical mindset that incorporates probability and risk-reward analysis. By understanding the historical patterns that have shaped the market over the years, traders can position themselves to capitalize on the most opportune moments, whether the market is poised for a bullish rise or a bearish decline. This September, in particular, presents a compelling case for a potential buying opportunity. Ultimately, successful trading requires more than just identifying patterns—it demands a disciplined approach to risk management, a clear understanding of market dynamics, and the ability to adapt to changing conditions. By integrating these elements into your trading strategy, you can enhance your ability to navigate the complexities of the Natural Gas market and achieve consistent, long-term success. As you apply these insights to your own trading, remember that while historical data provides valuable guidance, it is not a guarantee of future results. Always approach the market with caution, stay informed, and continuously refine your strategy based on the latest information and market conditions. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by traddictiv
2