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WTI CRUDE OIL Waiting for the 4hour MA50 to break.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL has turned sideways on the 4hour time frame, neutralizing the bearish trend of January. Right now there is a clear Support and Resistance Zone, with the 4hour MA50 getting the last rejection. If this breaks and closes a candle over it (4hour MA50), it will be a bullish signal like February 10th. We are already on a MACD Bullish Cross which was the first bullish signal in early February. So if Oil gives that MA50 break out, buy and target the bottom of Resistance A at 73.25. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:USOILLong
by TheCryptagon
The latest trend and trading analysis of gold and crude oilOANDA:XAUUSD Analysis of gold news: Spot gold rebounded slightly in the late trading period of the U.S. market on Monday, but the strength was limited. The daily decline on Friday reached 1.5%, falling from the historical high. However, it should be noted that the price volatility increased significantly after the long squeeze, and the high-level operation caused the long profit-taking, which led to the adjustment of the gold price. The gold price is approaching $2,905/ounce, a surge of more than $22 a day. At present, the Trump administration plans to formally impose tariffs on auto imports on April 2, which may have a wide impact on the global supply chain. Although some investors believe that Trump's tariff policy is mainly a negotiation strategy, the market remains cautious about possible uncertainties in the future. In addition to safe-haven demand, the continued purchase of gold by central banks is also a key factor in maintaining high gold prices. According to market surveys, major central banks around the world, especially those in major Asian countries, continue to increase their gold reserves to hedge against global economic uncertainties. Monday is the U.S. President's Day holiday. The U.S. stock market is closed and the precious metals market is closed in advance. Market trading may be limited. Pay attention to the speech of Federal Reserve Board Director Bowman and Trump's dynamic news, and pay attention to news related to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. There are relatively few economic data this week, mainly due to the US real estate market data and the initial value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in February. Pay attention to the interest rate decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. TVC:GOLD TVC:USOIL Technical analysis of gold: The daily line of gold shows a trend of falling with a high-level big negative, and the Bollinger Bands also show signs of closing. However, from the current technical perspective, it is not enough to determine the formation of the top. The main basis is that the unilateral moving average has not broken, and the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average have not turned downward, which means that gold still has the possibility of rising. If the daily line continues to close with a big positive this week, the double top position of 2942 above may also be broken. It can be seen that the current technical aspect shows an overall bullish trend. If the unilateral moving average does not break, the downward trend will be difficult to continue; and if the key resistance level of 2942 is not broken, it will be difficult for gold to usher in a new round of substantial gains. Based on this, it is expected that gold will maintain a long-term volatile trend at a high level. Focus on the two key resistance levels of 2930 and 2942 on the top, and pay attention to the support of 2875 and 2830 on the bottom. The limit support is expected to be 2800. In terms of small cycles, special attention should be paid to the volatile market of the H4 cycle. Above 2878, the H4 cycle closed above the lower Bollinger track with a small cross star, and the 60-day moving average did not break, so it is normal to rebound under the bullish trend. Then the big sun closed up, and the Bollinger band closed, which also laid a bullish tone for the market at the beginning of the week. In this case, it is necessary to wait for the end of the rising market of the H4 cycle, and then judge whether there is room for adjustment. Pay attention to the resistance levels of 2915 and 2930 on the top. On the whole, it is recommended to focus on callbacks and high-altitude rebounds in today's short-term operation of gold. Focus on the resistance of 2905-2915 in the short term, and focus on the support of 2885-2880 in the short term. Analysis of the latest trend of crude oil market: Analysis of crude oil news: On Monday (February 17, Beijing time), US crude oil traded around $70.95 per barrel. International oil prices rose slightly in the Asian session, benefiting from the recovery of fuel demand and the news that the United States postponed the implementation of global reciprocal tariffs, which eased the market's risk aversion. The Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region may resume exports, and the outlook for Russian oil supply is uncertain. Recently, the chairman of the Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region said that oil exports from the region may resume next month. This means that after nearly two years of interruption, oil supplies from northern Iraq will return to the international market, bringing additional supply pressure to the crude oil market. At the same time, US President Trump plans to meet with Russian President Putin to seek to promote peace talks in Ukraine. Although traditional European allies have been marginalized in the process, Trump said that Ukrainian President Zelensky will participate in the discussion of the peace agreement. This development may affect Russia's sanctions policy on oil exports and lead to changes in the global supply pattern in the future. Technical analysis of crude oil: From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend of crude oil tested the upper edge of the wide channel and then fell, which just matched the fundamentals. The K-line closed with negative entities continuously, and the moving average system showed signs of turning downward. The performance of short-term momentum was dominant, and the medium-term trend returned to the range. The overall trend was mainly downward within the range. The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) rose first and then fell, and oil prices continued to fall and hit a new low. The moving average system was arranged in a short position, and the short-term objective trend direction was downward. In the main downward trend rhythm of crude oil in the early Asian session, short-term momentum was dominant. Patiently wait for the formation of the secondary rhythm. It is expected that the trend of crude oil will maintain low consolidation during the day and gradually test 70. On the whole, the operation strategy of crude oil today is recommended to rebound high and supplemented by retracement. The short-term focus on the resistance line of 72.0-72.5 on the upper side and the short-term focus on the support line of 70.0-69.5 on the lower side. Summary: The characteristic of novices is that they do not understand technology and enter the market blindly. They only consider the first question every time they trade: they think that as long as they predict the rise and fall of the market, they can do this transaction. This approach of focusing on direction and ignoring position makes traders fail miserably. In fact, there is a big difference between the "trend" and the "direction" of following the trend, because the direction of the market movement presents a fluctuating form, and the market trend is often global. What I can do here is to help you control your positions reasonably, use the support and resistance levels to place orders, and make each order reasonable and traceable. Buying and selling points should not be entered at will, please be responsible for your own funds. If you really can't grasp the market, you can leave a message, and always remember one sentence, professionals do professional things. Mr. Baker
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Beck_Ledley
Oil weekly forecast with buy and sell levelsOil on the weekly chart shows a strong downtrend probably due to economic policies and over production. This week we have to remain cautious and stick to known levels off previous support and resistance. For a buy ill look at entering at 70.80 and follow up through the marked levels. For a sell entry ill look at 70.20 expecting 69.30, 67.80 and high support at 67.00 to 66.80 levels. Check out my other trade ideas linked below for Gold
TVC:USOIL
by F0rexBorex
2
Oil Prices Struggle Below 71.78 – Bearish Trend in Play USOIL Analysis – February 17, 2025 Oil Holds Steady Amid U.S.-Russia Talks and Kurdistan Export Hopes Oil prices remain stable as the market watches geopolitical developments, with U.S. and Russian officials set to meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss a potential resolution to the Ukraine conflict. Brent crude and WTI both saw a slight uptick of 0.4%, reaching $75.07 and $71.02 per barrel, respectively. The overall sentiment suggests that demand for physical oil remains weak, while a potential peace agreement could lead to the lifting of Western sanctions and a partial resumption of Russian oil flows to Europe. Additionally, Iraq’s Kurdistan region has signaled that its long-halted oil exports might resume next month, adding further uncertainty to supply expectations. Technical Outlook WTI crude remains in a bearish trend as long as it trades below the 71.78 - 72.72 zone. If the price fails to reclaim this range, further downside pressure is expected, with targets at 68.55 and 67.03 per barrel. Given the current geopolitical landscape, sellers should remain in control unless a significant bullish catalyst emerges. Key Levels to Watch 🔹 Pivot Zone: 70.50 - 71.78 🔹 Resistance Levels: 72.72, 75.00, 77.37 🔹 Support Levels: 68.53, 67.03, 63.51 📉 Trend Outlook: Bearish while below 71.78. Further declines could accelerate if 68.53 is breached. Previous idea:
TVC:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 71.62 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 72.20 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 69.58 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
USOIL:Go long on oil prices, or hold a buy orderusoil: Technically, there is no demand for a rebound. The ultra-short-term technical pattern shows a triangular consolidation range. At the same time, reducing the oil price in some areas will also increase the demand for oil to a certain extent. At the same time, the factor of geopolitical war will cause oil as an energy reserve to bottom out again. Overall, the profit of short-term long oil prices is conservatively estimated to be more than 7p. Buying target: around 71.5 Loss setting: 70.2 FX:USOIL
TVC:USOILLong
by JAKE_T0
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil StrugglesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Struggles Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $70.00. Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today - WTI Crude oil prices failed to clear the $73.50 region and started a fresh decline. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen. WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $73.50 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below the $72.20 support. The price even dipped below the $71.50 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near the $70.20 level. A low was formed at $70.12, and the price is now consolidating losses. If there is a fresh increase, it could face resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71.87 swing high to the $70.12 low at $71.00. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71.00. The first major resistance is near the $71.85 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.20 level. The main resistance could be near the $73.35 level. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit the $70.00 support. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $68.80. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $66.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $65.00 support zone. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
2
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher, finding support at the 3-day moving average. On the weekly chart, the index formed a strong bullish breakout candle, yet a confirmed buy signal has not yet materialized. This week, the focus will be on whether the index can hold support at the 3-week moving average, allowing for further upside potential. However, if the weekly candle closes as a bearish candle, a new sell signal could emerge, making this week’s closing price critical. On the daily chart, as noted last Friday, the Nasdaq bounced off the 3-day moving average, which means today’s key support level is the 5-day moving average. This suggests that if the market pulls back in the pre-market session or briefly tests the 5-day MA intraday, a rebound could follow. A key factor today is the U.S. market holiday, meaning today’s daily candle will merge with tomorrow’s session. If the market moves up first, it could present a short opportunity at the highs, while a downside move first could offer a dip-buying opportunity. On the 240-minute chart, buying pressure remains strong, making buying on dips the preferred strategy. However, given the gap between price and the 5-day moving average, traders should avoid chasing longs and instead focus on buying at lower levels. Crude Oil Crude oil closed lower following news of Ukraine-Russia peace talks. On the weekly chart, the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning the buy signal remains intact. However, the gap between the MACD and the signal line is narrowing, suggesting that if a bullish crossover fails, a strong move could follow. After four consecutive weeks of decline and last week’s doji candle, this week’s closing price is critical—if oil closes with a bullish candle, it could signal a potential reversal. On the daily chart, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line, keeping the sell signal active. However, strong historical support levels make it difficult to short aggressively. Oil is also attempting to form a double-bottom pattern near $70, making a break above $72 a key bullish confirmation. The short-term price action remains mixed, making lower time frames more relevant for positioning. On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal remains intact, with the key focus on whether oil breaks below $70. If oil fails to break lower, a bullish divergence could form, making chasing shorts a high-risk strategy. Given that U.S. markets are closed today, liquidity will be lower, so expect reduced trading volumes. Gold Gold closed lower, forming a double-top rejection at previous highs. As mentioned last week, the 2950+ zone was an overextended level, and now the price has pulled back sharply. On the weekly chart, gold remains in an uptrend, but a pullback toward the 5-week moving average remains possible. Since it is unclear how deep the correction may go, traders should only buy dips at lower levels to ensure proper risk management. On the daily chart, gold closed below the 10-day moving average, marking a technical shift. Throughout this entire rally, the key rule was to buy as long as gold held the 10-day MA, but now that it has broken, the market has shifted into a range-bound structure. However, since the MACD has not yet formed a bearish crossover, the market still has the potential for another rebound. Gold’s price action will depend on whether it can reclaim the 10-day MA or continue consolidating within a larger range. For now, the 2915–2920 zone (near the 3-day and 5-day moving averages) is a likely resistance area, while downside risk extends toward the 20-day moving average. On the 240-minute chart, a strong sell signal has appeared, but both the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, meaning that buying attempts could still emerge. Meanwhile, on the 60-minute chart, gold is testing its 240-period moving average, a level that often acts as a major support/resistance pivot. Considering these factors, gold is likely to remain range-bound this week, making box-range trading strategies the most effective. Given that a double-top pattern has formed, further downside could trigger increased volatility, so traders should be cautious. Today, the U.S. market is closed, with key events scheduled for later this week: -Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes -Thursday: Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations Rather than a new trend forming, markets are likely to consolidate within existing trends, leading to range-bound conditions. Risk management remains the top priority—stay disciplined, and have a successful trading week! If you like detailed this analysis and today's strategy, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Futureguard
#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: No bigger opinion on this trading range. 70 holds, we chop until a bigger news event pushes us above 74. Below 70 we could flush to 69 and then 67. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 75 bull case: Bulls preventing meaningful lower lows but we have a clear bear trend line. Bulls are still favored going into next week to buy around 70 and test back up to at least 72. They want to break above the Tuesday high 73.67 and make the market more neutral again. If they get it, we could test 75 next. Invalidation is below 69.7. bear case: Bears have closed the week near the lows and they want to poke at 70 until it fails. I have no idea how likely that is next week but for now it’s support and if we see decent buying pressure tomorrow, bulls are favored. Volume is also trash again. Below 70 we test 69 and then 67. Invalidation is above 75. short term: Neutral for now. Still no interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this. Nothing has changed since last Sunday. Play the range or trade something else. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
USOIL(WTI) Price ActionHello Traders, I hope you all had a great weekend and made some profits last week! As the market opens today, I’ve identified another setup on USOIL (WTI) . Here’s the breakdown: 1. Zones Marked: - On the 4H chart, I’ve marked two key zones: a Supply Zone and a Demand Zone. - Switching to the M30 chart, I’ve marked an additional Demand Zone. 2. Liquidity Line: - You’ll notice a Liquidity Line on the chart. Wait for a sweep of this level before considering any trades. 3. Entry Strategy: - Move to the M15 chart for a precise entry to lower your risk. - Look for bullish momentum to confirm a long position. 4. Take Profit (TP): - The TP levels will remain the same as planned. 5. Volume Observation: - Volume is currently low, which could indicate a potential divergence. Keep an eye on this as it may impact the trade. 6. Risk Management: - Always manage your risk carefully. Avoid trading blindly and stick to your plan. Wishing you all the best and happy trading! Let’s make it a profitable week. Thank you!
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDLong
by SuvashishFx
1
OIL CallsThe market structure remains bullish as the Daily price broke the last swing high of $77.89 to make a new market top of $79.44. Even though in the short term the price is retracing down to fill inefficiencies left by the last rally, we can expect a reversal of the trend at either $69 or $67 supply zones. In case of such reversal the price can with high probability retest the last swing high or the first supply zone which sits outside the current structure at $80. On the other hand, if the price breaks below $66.80, it will signal the market is entering another bear run.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Jakh_FX
Russia-Ukraine negotiations, next oil market analysis!!On Friday (February 15), international oil prices fell slightly, mainly affected by the expectation of easing the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The market generally believes that if the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine make substantial progress, the lifting of sanctions on Russia will greatly improve the global energy supply. However, the postponement of the implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs has provided support for oil prices and limited the decline in oil prices. Brent crude oil futures closed at $7,451 per barrel, while WTI crude oil fell to $70.57 per barrel. This week, Brent crude oil fell slightly by 0.23%, while WTI crude oil fell slightly by 0.69%. Despite the weak performance of oil prices, market sentiment remains relatively complex, greatly affected by the supply and demand pattern and global political dynamics. Market Dynamics Analysis Russia-Ukraine Situation: Changes in Supply and Demand Expectations Brought by Peace Talks One of the most important market news this week was that US President Trump instructed US officials to launch Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed their willingness to reach a peace agreement in separate phone calls with Trump. Market expectations for a possible turnaround in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are rising. If a peace agreement is reached and sanctions on Russia are lifted, the pressure on global energy supply will be significantly eased. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently mentioned in its oil market report that if Russia's oil exports can circumvent new sanctions, they may still be able to remain at the current level, which will have an important impact on the global oil market. Nevertheless, the market still needs to pay attention to the further development of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and there is still great uncertainty in the final realization of the peace agreement. US trade policy: The postponement of reciprocal tariffs provides support for oil prices US President Trump recently announced that he plans to postpone the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and the relevant report is expected to be submitted on April 1. The market responded positively to this, and the decision to postpone tariffs has increased optimism about the outlook for global trade. IG market strategist Ye Junrong pointed out that Trump's tariff policy adjustment has warmed up the market's expectations for the global trade environment, driving a certain rebound in oil prices. However, it is worth noting that although the postponement of tariffs has brought support to the market, the final direction of this policy is still uncertain, and it may have a greater impact on the trend of global oil prices in the future. Global demand recovery and supply dynamics: energy market tends to balance Analysts at JPMorgan Chase pointed out that global oil demand has increased to 103.4 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 1.4 million bpd from the same period last year. In particular, the recovery in demand for travel and heating fuels has further increased the actual demand for oil. At the same time, the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States has increased for three consecutive weeks. The latest report from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by 2 this week to 588. The increase in the number of drilling rigs usually indicates a recovery in future production and indicates that the US oil industry is gradually recovering. However, despite the recovery in demand, supply concerns remain. The economic pressure imposed by the Trump administration on Iran may also limit the growth of crude oil supply in the short term. Technical aspects and market sentiment: the pattern of oil price shocks From a technical perspective, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have been operating in a shock range recently, and there is great uncertainty in the short-term trend. Although the market is optimistic about the recovery in demand, potential disturbances in global supply and geopolitical risks still put pressure on oil prices. In terms of technical indicators, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have not broken through the upper limit of the recent fluctuation range, indicating that market sentiment is still in a wait-and-see state. Outlook for next week Looking ahead to next week, the crude oil market will still face the test of multiple uncertainties. First, whether the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks can make substantial progress will be an important factor affecting oil prices. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine eases and sanctions on Russia are lifted, global energy supply may ease and oil prices may be under great pressure. Second, whether the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy will continue to be postponed and its impact on global trade may continue to affect market sentiment. The market's expectations for the adjustment of the US trade policy are still relatively optimistic, which may provide some support for oil prices in the short term. In addition, the recovery trend of global oil demand is expected to continue, especially as the global economy gradually recovers, the increase in fuel and heating demand may further drive up oil prices. However, uncertainties on the global supply side, especially supply problems in Iran and Russia, will have a lasting impact on oil price trends. The increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States indicates that the recovery of US oil production may have an impact on market supply in the coming months. If the US energy production capacity continues to expand, oil prices may face downward pressure. TVC:USOIL
TVC:USOILShort
by Beck_Ledley
OXY: Bullish Breakout PotentialA break above the 50.80 level could confirm the stock is ready to clear its descending channel and shift momentum in favor of the bulls. This price has acted as a pivotal zone in recent sessions, and a decisive close above it would suggest the downtrend may be reversing. A surge in volume above 50.80 would further strengthen the long setup, potentially targeting the high 50s or low 60s if buyers follow through. The RSI on this 2W chart is hovering near the middle (accumulation) range. It’s neither showing an extreme overbought nor deeply oversold condition. That gives price room to run in either direction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing involve risk, and independent research or consultation with a professional is recommended before making any financial decisions.
NYSE:OXY
by MysticMads
Why I Believe Brent Crude Oil is Headed to $125 by 2026www.tradingview.com 1. Supply Constraints: Geopolitics & Trade Wars One of the biggest drivers of higher oil prices is geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts. We're already seeing major disruptions that could tighten supply further: Middle East Tensions – The ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea, Iran, and Israel continue to create uncertainty. Attacks on shipping routes and production facilities raise the cost of transporting oil and increase the risk of supply disruptions. Russia-Ukraine War – With Russian oil facing sanctions and restrictions, global supply chains have had to adjust, making energy markets more fragile. OPEC+ Output Cuts – OPEC has repeatedly restricted production to keep prices elevated, and there’s no indication they’ll reverse course anytime soon. U.S.-China Trade War & Tariffs – With Trump leading in the 2024 election polls, there’s a growing possibility that tariffs on China will return. If this happens, energy trade flows could be further disrupted, and retaliatory tariffs could add to price pressures. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Depletion – The U.S. used a huge portion of its SPR to lower oil prices in 2022-2023, but refilling those reserves will create additional demand, pushing prices even higher. With these factors at play, supply is becoming more constrained, making it easier for prices to rise with even small increases in demand. 2. Demand Boom: AI, Bitcoin Mining, and Agriculture While supply is tightening, demand for energy is skyrocketing in unexpected ways. AI Data Centers & Industrial Demand AI computing is extremely energy-intensive, and as companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to expand cloud computing infrastructure, demand for electricity is surging. Many data centers still rely on fossil fuels for backup power and cooling systems, meaning oil and gas usage will continue to increase. Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Bitcoin mining requires massive amounts of electricity, and as BTC prices rise, mining activity expands in energy-dependent regions. With the 2024 BTC halving, miners will have to run at full efficiency, which translates to higher global energy consumption. Agriculture & Food Production The world’s growing population and extreme weather events (like El Niño) are driving higher food production needs. Fertilizer production, transportation, and machinery all require oil, meaning agricultural commodities are directly contributing to higher energy demand. Together, these factors suggest that demand for oil is only going to increase, making it harder for supply to keep up. 3. Oil Price vs. Stock Market: The $100 Warning Zone Historically, when oil prices get too high, the stock market struggles. Some key examples: 2008 Recession: Oil peaked at $147 per barrel, right before the financial crisis. 2018 Market Drop: When oil hit $80+, stocks sold off sharply. 2022 Inflation Shock: Oil reached $120+, leading to Fed rate hikes and market turmoil. Why $100+ Oil is a Warning Sign for Stocks Higher oil prices = higher inflation. This forces central banks like the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, making borrowing more expensive. Energy costs impact corporate profits. Companies across multiple sectors will see shrinking profit margins as transportation and production costs rise. Consumer spending takes a hit. Gasoline prices cut into disposable income, which weakens overall economic growth. If Brent crude pushes above $100, expect increased market volatility and a potential selloff in equities. 4. Brent Crude Technicals: Price Targets for 2026 Current Setup Price Holding Key Support (~$70-$74) – Brent is respecting major trendlines, signaling strong demand in this area. Breakout Zone Around $80-$82 – If price moves above this level, it could trigger a rally to $100+. Fibonacci Levels Align with $125 Target: 0.618 Fib retracement at $106 → First major resistance. 0.786 Fib extension at $119 → Likely next target. 1.272 Fib extension near $125 → Final upside target for 2026. This technical setup aligns with macro fundamentals and historical oil cycles, making a move to $125 increasingly probable. 5. Investment & Trading Strategy Long-Term Bullish Strategy Accumulation Zone: $70-$74 (solid support). Upside Targets: $106, $119, $125. Stop Loss Consideration: Below $68 (invalidates thesis). Hedging Against Market Risk SPX Put Options / VIX Calls – If oil rises toward $100+, consider hedging against an equity downturn. Energy Stocks (XLE, Exxon, Chevron) – These stocks tend to outperform during oil bull markets. Gold & Commodities – Hard assets often rally when energy prices increase. Conclusion: The Path to $125 Brent Oil Geopolitical instability + supply cuts = higher prices. AI, Bitcoin, and food production = rising demand. If oil approaches $100, watch for an equities pullback. While no forecast is perfect, all signs point to oil prices rising into 2026. If this trend plays out, investors should be prepared for higher inflation, tighter Fed policy, and increased market volatility. Would love to hear your thoughts—do you think oil will hit $125, or are we headed lower? 🚀📊
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by JavierXBT
USOIL Massive Long! BUY! My dear friends, USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 70.49 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 71.21 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILLong
by AnabelSignals
1
WTI Crude The Week Ahead 17 Feb 25 The WTI Crude (US Light Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 7290, 50 Day Moving Average level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7290 level could target the downside support at 7100 followed by 6955 and 6870 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7290 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7360 resistance followed by 7455 levels. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:WTI
by TradeNation