Turbulent Times Ahead for Natural Gas MarketNatural gas prices began the week with a gap-up, driven by forecasts of colder weather increasing demand, but have since faced strong selling pressure, making traders cautious.
◉ Technical Analysis
● A bullish turnaround seems imminent for Natural Gas prices, highlighted by the appearance of an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern on the daily chart.
● After breaking out, the price momentarily reached the $3.290 resistance level before retreating and revisiting the breakout point.
● The price is now attempting to breach the resistance zone again, with expectations of exceeding the level soon.
● However, a drop below $2.800 could trigger a further correction.
◉ Overall Outlook
Natural gas prices are poised for a volatile week as traders weigh colder weather expectations against bearish technical signals. Thursday's inventory data will be crucial in determining the next price move.
Energy Commodities
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to multi-swing-low supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 66.90 which is a multi-swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 66.23 which is a level that lies underneath the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
Take profit is at 68.51 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Bearish drop?WTI/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 68.74
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retraecment.
Stop loss: 70.41
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 67.09
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Oil prices rebound on expectations of Chinese economic stimulus
Oil prices rebounded as Chinese authorities demonstrated their strong will to stimulate the economy. Chinese authorities announced that they will continue to respond to the economy with a more active fiscal policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption. Meanwhile, Aramco announced it would cut its OSP for Asian refineries to 90 cents lower per barrel. This is the lowest since Jan 2021, when global demand was weak due to the pandemic.
USOIL briefly broke below the support at 67.60 but rebounded, compensating some of the decline. However, the price stays within the downward channel, maintaining bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below 67.60 again and the channel’s lower bound, the price may fall further to 64.80. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above EMA78 and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 70.00 threshold.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest structure analysis and important
supports and resistances on WTI Oil on a daily.
Horizontal Structures
Support 1: 65.2 - 66.9 area
Resistance 1: 67.7 - 62.2 area
Resistance 2: 69.9 - 70.5 area
Resistance 3: 71.2 - 71.5 area
Resistance 4: 72.2 - 72.9 area
Vertical Structures
Vertical Resistance 1: Falling trend line
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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WTI , crud oil
Regarding WTI intraday trading, last Friday, the price swept liquidity around $67. Today, during the Asian session, the price is showing signs of an upward movement. I am anticipating a pullback to the $67.50 zone before considering a long position (in the 5-minute or higher timeframe).
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If you need further adjustments or have specific areas you would like to focus on, feel free to let me know!
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Faces Continued StrugglesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Faces Continued Struggles
Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $66.80.
Important Takeaways for Oil Price Analysis Today
- Crude oil prices failed to clear the $70.00 region and started a fresh decline.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $70.00 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below the $68.80 support.
The price even dipped below the $67.80 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near the $66.80 level. A low was formed at $66.78 and the price is now consolidating losses. If there is a fresh increase, it could face resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.10 swing high to the $66.78 low.
There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67.50. The first major resistance is near the $67.80 level, above which the price could rise and test the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.10 swing high to the $66.78 low at $68.80.
Any more gains might send the price toward the $69.60 level. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit the $66.80 support. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $66.00.
If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $63.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $61.20 support zone.
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WTI recovered slightly, the outlook tilted to the downsideWTI TVC:USOIL increased slightly in the Asian trading session on Monday (December 9), trading around 67.50 USD/barrel. Oil prices fell sharply last Friday, closing near their lowest level, mainly due to expected declines in global demand.
However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December increased following the release of US nonfarm data. According to CME Group's FedWatch, federal funds rate futures trading points to the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. point in December was nearly 90%, which will provide some support for oil prices.
Currently, uncertainty about the geopolitical situation increased again at the weekend, making the medium-term recovery of oil prices still not optimistic. In the short term, crude oil traders need to continue to observe whether the pressure brought about by the geopolitical situation on the supply side will support oil prices to continue to recover. Essentially, this week will continue to focus on changes in inventory data and whether demand-side pressures ease. This week, the financial market in general and the crude oil and WTI crude oil trading market in particular will focus on US CPI data.
On the daily chart, WTI TVC:USOIL although it recovered slightly in the opening Asian trading session today (December 9), it still has all the technical factors supporting bearish expectations.
With the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel followed by the short-term price channel, it has both a long-term and short-term trend of decreasing prices. On the other hand, WTI crude oil is also under main pressure from EMA21 along with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level.
In the short term, if WTI crude oil is sold below 65.28USD, there will be a prospect for a new downtrend to open, and the technical point of 68.34USD is the closest resistance currently.
The relative strength index also maintained price activity below the 50 level, which should be considered a negative signal for WTI crude oil technically.
During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil on the daily chart leans bearish with notable points listed below.
Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD
Resistance: 68.34 – 69.51USD
USOUSD (OIL), key support remains in play Thanks for checking our latest update. Today we are looking at oil on its daily chart.
The key questions we are asking today from a technical perspective are: Will we see key support continue to hold, and will the rough looking ending diagonal pattern confirm, setting off a new rally? Or could sellers finally break the discussed key support area, setting off a new leg lower?
Key support: $67 - $66.50.
As always, traders must remain vigilant and stay abreast of the latest updates from OPEC and geopolitical influences, as these factors can significantly impact the market.
Good trading from Eightcap.
Falling towards pullback support?USO/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 66.96
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 65.52
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 68.66
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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USOIL, Where is the best zone to long?Greetings, traders! Welcome to this USOIL market analysis, where we focus on identifying higher-probability trading opportunities.
In this video, I start by analyzing the yearly down to the daily charts, highlighting key trading zones, and discussing the confirmations we look for to optimize our swing entries.
If you like the breakdown, boost the idea and follow to receive more ideas.
Trade safely
Trader Leo
My Bearish Setup in Progress on WTI Crude Oil WTI crude oil has been in a steady downtrend and recently formed a potential supply zone (purple area) around $69.50–$70.15, aligning with a key inefficiency.
Price action suggests a bearish reaction at this zone, with the potential for lower highs before a continuation to the downside.
Liquidity below $66.68 is the next probable target as sellers dominate the market.
The setup favors waiting for price to tap into the supply zone, showing clear rejection signs before executing shorts.
A break below recent lows would confirm bearish momentum, with further downside targets in the $65.50–$64.50 range.
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral af. Two weekly bear bars closing on their lows the past two weeks. Before that we had 12 weeks of most alternating bull/bear weeks. Can you get bearish now for a stronger leg down? I highly doubt it. Market has not had a weekly close below 65.6 for exactly a year. 65.6 is the November low and I expect it to hold. So looking for longs is probably the way to go but bulls only produced one single bull bar in the past 2 weeks. Need more buying pressure before looking for higher targets. I won’t touch it for now.
Quote from last week:
comment: The most likely outcome was a continuation of the trading range and that’s what we got. Bears are on their way to test 67 again and the market now have formed a head & shoulders pattern like in August where we broke down to make new lows. Most h&s patterns fail and are just continuation patterns. We will likely get the answer to that next week. Anything between 68 and 70 is a dead zone and I will only be interested in longs around 67, if bulls come around again. Shorts do not make sense below 70.
comment : Bulls are not doing enough but bears are also barely making new lows. Market is mostly two sided and stuck inside an 8$ range for 2 months. Don’t over analyze it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 65 - 73
bull case: I won’t make up stuff here. Market has no direction for years now and the range is contracting. Bulls want to stay above 66 and test the upper bear trend line around 70 again. That’s about it.
Invalidation is below 66.
bear case: Bears are in control but it’s clearly a very weak trending trading range. We are inside nested triangles on higher time frames and selling below 67 has not been profitable for more than an intraday scalp since mid 2023. It hasn’t been profitable to get bearish below 67 for that long, why would you now.
Invalidation is above 71.6.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited.
→ Last Sunday we traded 68 and now we are at 67.2. Good outlook but trading ranges are not rocket science.
short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited. Can’t change much of last weeks short term outlook, since it’s still valid. Bears have targets below 66 but until they get a daily close below it, we continue sideways.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing worth mentioning. Again.
USOIL Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 67.10
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 68.19
My Stop Loss - 66.46
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK