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WTI crude oil recovered nearly 5%, supported but still limitedTVC:USOIL rebounded sharply nearly 5% on Wednesday, far from the nearly 2-month low reached on Tuesday after the assassination of the leader of Hamas in Iran, investors fear the conflict in the Middle East could widen and the volume US crude oil inventories boosted. The Federal Reserve sent the market a signal in September to cut interest rates, and the US Dollar index dropped sharply, also creating momentum for oil prices. Government data showed US crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels last week, while the market expected a decline of 1.1 million barrels. Crude oil inventories fell for the fifth consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since January 2021. The news that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran has increased tensions in the Middle East overnight. The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% on Wednesday, which also supported oil prices. The Fed kept interest rates steady but left open the possibility of reducing borrowing costs at its next meeting in September. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ alliance consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia will meet today (Thursday). The alliance is expected to maintain current production policies and lift some output cuts starting in October. During this trading day, investors also need to pay attention to deeper market developments regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, pay attention to new news on the geopolitical situation, pay attention to the US ISM manufacturing PMI for July and initial unemployment numbers. US claims for the week ending July 27. On the daily chart of WTI crude oil, despite a very strong recovery since the lower edge of the confluence price channel with the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level, WTI crude oil is currently limited in its recovery by the Fibonacci 0.50%. Meanwhile, the bearish structure is still unaffected with the price channel as the main trend and pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as WTI crude oil maintains price activity within the channel and below Ema21, the technical outlook remains bearish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 77.10 – 75.07USD Resistance: 78.52 – 79.94USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
WTI recovered after hitting a 2-week low TVC:USOIL prices recovered after hitting a nearly two-week low after a surge in U.S. refining activity last week pushed gasoline and crude inventories down more than expected. US crude inventories fell 3.4 million barrels in the week ended July 5 to 445.1 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations for a decline of 1.3 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell 2 million barrels to 229.7 million barrels, much higher than market expectations of a decline of 600,000 barrels during the July 4 holiday week. EIA data showed distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 4.9 million barrels to 124.6 million barrels, compared with forecasts for an increase of 800,000 barrels. EIA said crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma distribution center fell by 702,000 barrels last week. EIA said refinery processing capacity increased by 317,000 barrels per day last week and capacity utilization increased by 1.9%. Gulf Coast refinery capacity utilization reached its highest level since June 2023. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he is not ready to declare inflation defeated, but he believes the US is still on track to achieve stable prices and low unemployment. The Federal Reserve will make interest rate decisions "as needed," downplaying suggestions that a September rate cut could be seen as a political move ahead of the presidential election in the fall. Investors are betting on an interest rate cut in September, which could boost economic growth and oil demand. Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September rose to 74% from about 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch data. OPEC on Wednesday maintained its forecast for relatively strong global oil demand growth this year and next, saying resilient economic growth and air travel would support summer fuel use. However, news about the geopolitical situation can still put pressure on oil prices. The Israeli delegation arrived in Doha to hold four-party negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza. This trading day will focus on changes in the US CPI and initial jobless claims in June, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials and news related to the geopolitical situation. The general market focus still revolves around macro data, inflation, Fed, interest rates, and geopolitical situation. Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, after WTI crude oil corrected to the downside, it took support from the 21-day moving average (EMA21) to rebound, and the upside recovery is also being limited by the Fibonacci retracement level. retreat 0.236%. If WTI crude oil can continue to recover to take price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it has the conditions to continue to increase in price with a target level then around 84.43USD in the short term. Meanwhile, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook. For the bearish case, WTI crude oil sold off below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, this also confirmed the trend price channel was broken to give way to a downtrend with a target of around 77.70USD. During the day, the technical trend of WTI crude oil is bullish with notable technical levels listed as follows. Support: 81.24 – 80.04USD Resistance: 82.94 – 84.43USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
Factors supporting WTI crude oil, weekly outlook analysisThis week, the crude oil market, especially WTI crude oil, experienced a series of fluctuations, ultimately ending the weekend trading session with a slight decrease in WTI crude oil futures prices. Despite pressure from a stronger US Dollar, growing US oil demand and falling fuel inventories supported crude markets, while geopolitical tensions added to market uncertainty. The strength of the US Dollar has had a significant impact on the crude oil market. The dollar hit a seven-week high against major currencies, making dollar-denominated crude more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially curbing oil demand. Global. However, strong US economic activity, especially business activity hitting a 26-month high in June, has provided some support to oil demand. WTI crude oil increased 3.23% this week to 80.52 USD/barrel. Brent crude oil increased 2.53% this week to $84.18/barrel. Supply and demand dynamics: Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that total petroleum product supply increased significantly last week to 21.1 million barrels per day, indicating that the US oil market is tightening. The arrival of the summer driving season, along with falling inventories, has pushed U.S. gasoline futures higher, reflecting growing demand. Geopolitical factors: Geopolitical tensions, especially the conflict between Israel and Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, have added pressure on crude oil markets. These events have raised concerns about supply disruptions, which could pressure oil prices. General opinion: Rising oil demand over the summer and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to be key factors that continue to drive crude oil markets, especially WTI crude. In addition, readers also need to pay attention to outstanding developments in the Fed's monetary policy because it will also affect oil prices because crude oil is priced in US Dollars. Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is gaining important upside potential with an uptrend formed and noticed by the price channel. On the other hand, WTI crude oil is still stable above the 0.382% Fibonacci level, showing the possibility that it will continue towards the next Fibonacci level at 0.236% in the near future. Along with that is support from the EMA21 moving average. In the short term, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel, above the EMA21, and the RSI has not reached overbought levels, it still has a bullish technical outlook. Notable levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 80.04 – 77.70USD Resistance: 82.94USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
Finally time for bullish oil? $USO to $120 then $300+People have been calling for the oil bull market to begin for the past two years and the trade largely hasn't worked as we've gone sideways to down. However, based on the chart, it looks like we're finally ready for a run. This would also line up with my bearish equity thesis. Oil looks to have broken out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern and althought it's a diagonal pattern which are less reliable, the indicators that I have seem to support the narrative. I think there's a possibility that we could see a 4x move over the next year or so. Let's see how it plays out.
AMEX:USOLong
by benjihyam
10
WTI extends rally to form bullish signI think today's big reversal qualifies as a key reversal day on oil. The rally means WTI is forming a three-bar reversal pattern on its daily time frame. Prices have been supported by further sharper-than-expected drop in US oil stocks, suggesting US driving seasons is well and truly underway. A close above the shaded area on the chart in the next couple of days would further boost the appeal of WTI on the long-side. Longer-term, we will need to see a clean breakout from the converging trend lines for prices to establish a clear directional bias. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by FOREXcom
A Possible Recession Coming: What to Invest in During DifficultChart Analysis: The chart depicts the relationship between the M2 money supply, US Consumer Price Index (CPI), labor market trends, and historical recessions. Key observations include: Recessions: -Historical recessions are marked and correlated with significant economic downturns. -Each recession coincides with substantial drops in the labor market and fluctuations in the M2 money supply and CPI. M2 Money Supply and US CPI: -The M2 money supply (blue line) shows a steady increase over the years, reflecting ongoing monetary expansion. -The US CPI (orange line) follows a similar upward trend, indicating rising consumer prices and inflation. Current Economic Conditions: -The chart suggests a potential recession on the horizon, marked by the recent economic indicators and historical patterns. Bitcoin's Role in the Current Economic System: This is the reason the goverments wants to stop Bitcoin. People want out of their slave system where they create abundance for themselves with money printing while our labor value is always decreasing. Recession Expectations and Market Opportunities: Be open to a recession in the coming winter. The CME is having a meeting today where there is a 5% chance for a 0.25 rate cut and a 95% chance for a cut in September. Historically, there is a two-month window where the market booms and then rolls over into a recession after rate cuts. This supports the idea of a left-translated cycle and a longer multi-year cycle. For more information, see "The Fourth Turning." Investment Opportunities_ With this information, there can be good opportunities to get in early on investments in the precious metal markets like gold and silver, and also mining stocks. Production materials like copper, oil, and steel can be great shorting opportunities in the coming weeks and months. Conclusion: Understanding these economic indicators and historical patterns provides valuable insights for making informed investment decisions. While the future economic landscape looks challenging, strategic investments in precious metals and shorting opportunities in production materials could offer significant returns.
ECONOMICS:USM2Short
by martinxi5u4
2
US Crude Oil Prices Hover at $82: Bearish Setup in Sight?US crude oil prices continue to fluctuate within a sideways trading range, currently hovering around the $82.00 mark. This consolidation phase has presented an intriguing supply area, suggesting a potential bearish movement in the near term. In this context, it's essential to consider the positions of various market participants. Commercial traders, who often include producers and large institutions, are maintaining a bearish stance. This bearish sentiment from the commercial side contrasts with the behavior of retail traders, who are currently in buying mode. This divergence between commercial and retail positions can be a significant indicator of potential market direction. Given the current market conditions, we are monitoring this supply area for a bearish setup. On a daily timeframe, the possible targets for this bearish movement are the next demand areas. These zones represent potential levels where buying interest might re-emerge, providing support to the prices. While there isn't a strong seasonal trend supporting a bearish continuation, statistical analysis suggests that there could be a bearish impulse lasting until mid-August. This potential decline aligns with historical patterns, even though the current market lacks a definitive seasonal bias for a prolonged bearish trend. The interplay between commercial and retail traders' positions provides a nuanced view of market sentiment. Commercial traders' bearish outlook, combined with the retail traders' bullish stance, creates a dynamic environment that could lead to significant price movements. This scenario highlights the importance of closely monitoring market sentiment and positioning to identify potential trading opportunities. In conclusion, US crude oil prices remain in a sideways range around $82.00, with an interesting supply area indicating a possible bearish movement. The contrasting positions of commercial and retail traders add complexity to the market outlook. Despite the absence of strong seasonal trends, statistical analysis suggests a potential bearish impulse until mid-August. Traders should remain vigilant and consider these factors when developing their trading strategies in the current market environment. ✅ Please share your thoughts about Crude Oil in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
USOIL ( BREAKOUT DEMAND ZONE ) (4H)USOIL HELLO TRADERS Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , after breakout demand zone . TURNING LEVEL : the price of turning level around 76.96 , until the price trading below this level reach a support level (1) , but if the price breaking this level reach resistance level (1) . RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : this level around 80.49 , for reach this resistance the price it will be breaking turning level . RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : around 82.83 , for reach this level it will be breaking by open 4h or 1h candle above resistance level (1) SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : as long the price trading below turning level reach this level around 75.05. SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : this level around 72.46, for reach this level the price will be breaking by open 1h or 4h candle below support level (1) . CORRECTIVE : the price may be corrective turning level at 76.96 , before drooping . TARGET LEVEL : RESISTANCE LEVEL : 80.49 , 82.83 . SUPPORT LEVEL : 75.05 ,72.46 .
TVC:USOILShort
by ArinaKarayi
Texas Oil to continue in the downward move at market price?WTI - 24h expiry Our short term bias remains negative. Our bespoke support of 77.06 has been clearly broken. Previous support at 77.50 now becomes resistance. We look for a temporary move higher. We look for losses to be extended today. We look to Sell at 77.50 (stop at 78.30) Our profit targets will be 75.50 and 75.15 Resistance: 77.13 / 77.50 / 78.00 Support: 76.60 / 75.80 / 75.4 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by OANDA
NATURAL GAS Expecting a dead-cat-bounce. Get ready to sell it.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been trading within a long-term Falling Wedge pattern since the April 2023 Low, with its latest Lower High coming right at the top of June 11 2024. With a short-term bullish divergence on the 1D RSI, we expect to see a 'dead-cat-bounce' in August, which even though it might get as high as the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level to price yet another Lower High, an acceptable level to get a sell entry again, would be the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Our Target is 1.400, which would be the -0.5 Fibonacci extension (where the February 20 2024 Lower Low was priced), even though the Wedge's technical Lower Low extends as low as 1.200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!
by TradingShot
MarketBreakdown | USDCAD, NZDUSD, CRUDE OIL, DXY Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #USDCAD daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦 The pair is currently testing a significant daily structure resistance. The intraday price action looks bearish at the moment. I think that the pair may start a correctional movement from the underlined blue area. 2️⃣ #NZDUSD daily time frame 🇳🇿🇺🇸 The market is approaching a significant weekly resistance cluster that is based on 2 important historic highs. I think that we may see a correctional movement/pullback soon. 3️⃣ #WTI CRUDE OIL daily time frame 🛢️ Crude Oil updated a low on a daily, violating a key horizontal support. It confirms the strength of the sellers. The market may keep trading in a bearish trend within the boundaries of the underlined channel. 4️⃣ DOLLAR INDEX #DXY daily time frame 💵 We see a nice correctional movement after a strong bearish impulse. The market is currently trading within a bearish flag pattern. Bearish breakout of the support of the flag will be a strong bearish trend-following signal. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
1
USOIL / GOT IT, AND STILL RUNNING!!! Technical Analysis: USOIL Current Outlook: the price remains bearish zone due to stability bearish volume under 77.94 Bullish Scenario: The price should stabilize above 77.94 to get 79.49 Bearish Scenario: As long as trades under 77.44 means will drop to 76.30 and 75.35 Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 77.40 - Support Levels: 76.30, 75.35, 72.80 - Resistance Levels: 77.94, 79.49, 80.73 Today's Expected Range: The price is anticipated to move between the support at 75.35 and the resistance at 77.95. PREVIOUS IDEA:
TVC:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
WTI Oil H4 | Pullback resistance at Fibonacci confluenceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 77.35 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 61.8% retracement levels. Stop loss is at 78.90 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 75.43 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
2