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Bearish Forecast for the Dow Jones Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for the Dow Jones Starting May 15, 2025 The Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price low from April 7, 2025 (~36,611.78), and possibly lower. This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and bearish market sentiment. 1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline Fundamental factors provide the macroeconomic and policy-driven rationale for the anticipated downturn in the Dow Jones. 1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy The Dow’s rally on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism over a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence is faltering due to a lack of progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Trigger for May 15: A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks fail to deliver positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates tariff rhetoric, the Dow could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 5.5% single-day drop. The Dow, with its heavy weighting of multinational corporations, is particularly vulnerable to trade war fears, which could drive it toward the April 7 low as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth. 1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, showed inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. However, the Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggests investors expected a lower figure to support Federal Reserve rate cuts, reflecting skepticism about inflation cooling further. Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, due at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is critical. A higher-than-expected PPI, potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures, could signal rising consumer prices, reducing hopes for Fed easing and triggering a sell-off. Consensus expects a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could echo the April market reaction when GDP contraction fears pushed the Dow to 36,611.78. Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, likely showed continued weakness (April: 52.2, a multi-year low). A further decline could heighten concerns about reduced consumer spending, impacting Dow components like Walmart and Home Depot. 1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies, with markets expecting 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, starting in July. If today’s PPI or Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) indicate persistent inflation or economic weakness, rate cut expectations could fade, increasing borrowing costs and pressuring Dow valuations, mirroring the April 7 recession fears. 2. Technical Analysis The Dow’s initial decline in April was approximately -19.00%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude. Technical indicators suggest a bearish setup for May 15, 2025: Current Level: The Dow closed at 42,051.06 on May 14, 2025, down 0.6%, testing support at 42,000. Bearish Signals: A 12-hour timeframe analysis indicates alignment for a decline, with potential bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing) and overbought RSI (70). A break below 42,000 could target the 200-day moving average (40,500) and the April 7 low of 36,611.78. Price Targets: Retest of April 7, 2025, low: ~36,611.78 Secondary target: ~35,970.70 (based on Fibonacci extensions and prior support zones). 3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors Fragile Optimism: The Dow’s 15% recovery from April lows was driven by trade truce hopes and select stock strength. Bloomberg’s May 14, 2025, report notes Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade risks. The Dow’s May 14 weakness, led by an 18% UnitedHealth drop, could spread if negative news emerges today. Global Correlation: Mixed Asian market performance on May 14 (e.g., Nikkei up 1.43%, India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%) suggests vulnerability. A lower Asian open on May 15, driven by U.S. declines or trade news, could amplify selling pressure on the Dow. 4. Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast 4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025) PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A PPI reading above 0.3% could signal sticky inflation, reducing Fed rate cut odds and sparking a sell-off. Trade Talk Updates: Negative U.S.-China trade comments (e.g., no Geneva deal) could reignite fears, mirroring April 7. Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Claims above 220,000 (vs. prior 211,000) could signal labor market weakness, fueling recession concerns. 4.2. Dow Scenario Expect a wave-like decline with corrections. The Dow could fall below 36,611.78, potentially reaching ~35,970.70 if trade and economic pressures intensify. Extreme caution is advised in 2025. 4.3. Global Scenario for S&P 500 I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year. There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power. Idea: New Screenshot: 4.4. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts: · Europe vs. Russia · India vs. Pakistan · Iran vs. Israel Brent (UKOIL): Natural Gas:
TVC:DJIShort
by SergioRichi
Bullish bounce off overlap support?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 59.97 1st Support: 57.60 1st Resistance: 63.27 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDLong
by ICmarkets
1
WTIUSD Building a Base – Bullish Reversal Setup Above $58?# WTIUSD **Instrument:** WTIUSD **Current Price:** Around $60 **Bias:** Bullish (Reversal) --- **Analysis:** WTI is showing signs of a potential **trend reversal** after forming a solid base near the $53.8 level, marked as the **invalidation zone**. Price has reclaimed the $58.3 support level and appears to be preparing for a bullish continuation, especially if it forms a higher low near this level. A sustained move above $58.3 followed by bullish structure could open the door toward **$70.0** and possibly even **$75.0** in the medium term. --- **Key Levels:** - **Support:** $58.292 - **Invalidation:** $53.828 (price closing below would negate the setup) - **Bullish Targets:** $70.0 – $75.0 --- **Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice):** Look for confirmation of support holding above $58.3 and potential bullish momentum for entries. Invalid if price breaks and closes below $53.8. --- > **Disclaimer:** > This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Trading commodities involves significant risk. Always do your own research and use proper risk management.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by Forex_Int
Crude oil is extremely bullish.I see a very similar market structure in crude oil’s big picture as in the early days of Bitcoin. People will say, “But what about electric cars?”—yet few realize that over 6,000 products are made with oil. Not to mention, long-term oil use isn't going anywhere, even with the rise of electric vehicles. I believe oil is actually very undervalued and has been repressed for many years. It can't be held down forever—a big upward move is pretty much inevitable. As always, stay profitable. - Dalin Anderson
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by High_Altitude_Investing
USOIL UPDATEweek hit its largest since the week of March 7, 2025. The EIA crude oil inventory for the week stood at 3.454 million barrels, contrasting with the expected -1.078 million barrels and the previous figure of -2.032 million barrels. On Wednesday, crude oil exhibited a high-range oscillatory pattern: it stabilized and rebounded near $62.7, then pulled back after reaching $63.6, maintaining volatility within a narrow upper range. Influenced by the large bullish candlestick on the daily chart, oil prices still carry an upward probability. Overall, crude oil remains in a bullish consolidation phase. For trading strategies, a "buy low, sell high" approach is recommended, with resistance levels to watch at $63.6–64.5 and support levels at $62.7–61.2. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
TVC:USOILLong
by HilaryBloomer
WTI Crude Oil: Trade Idea Context and SetupOur Long trade idea has already reached its target at 5921.75 in ES futures. If you missed it, here’s a link to our article from the start of the week: Note that, our entry was at 5861, while our stop was at 5837 in the example trade idea. The maximum low price was 5835.75 during Monday’s overnight session. Our stops could have been filled given this, however, we want to remind traders that these example trade ideas are for educational purposes, they are not a recommendation. Stops are never meant to dictate exact stop prices. Trader’s should place their stops according to their own risk management plan whether that be a mix of fixed dollar amount and market structure or filtering down to execution time frames to place stops per market generated information and structure. Today’s Trade Idea: WTI Crude Oil We will analyze the Long trade idea in WTI Crude Oil, providing both context and setup. Fundamental Analysis Supporting Our Scenario: Following the reciprocal tariff announcements, WTI Crude Oil fell to its lowest level of 54.48, a price last seen in 2023. While equity markets have recovered, crude oil remains subdued—widely attributed to concerns over OPEC+ overproduction. However, as we’ve previously explained, this interpretation is incorrect. The OPEC+ production increases were planned as early as December 2024, and the rollback of voluntary cuts is primarily aimed at meeting domestic demand within OPEC+ countries. This uptick in consumption also coincides with seasonal demand from summer and the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, with the reversal of China’s escalatory tariffs and newly signed deals in the Middle East, many analysts have revised their GDP and recession forecasts upward. We believe this improved economic outlook is yet to be priced in by the oil markets. Technical Analysis Supporting Our Scenario: From a technical standpoint, there is a significant resistance zone and key Low Volume Node (LVN) stacked just above the 2025 mCVAL and Q2 2025 mCVAH. The March 2025 Low also sits just above this cluster. Our analysis projects a potential move from these levels up to the next major area of stacked levels: • AVWAP from 2025 High • Yearly 2025 VWAP • 2025 Mid-Range This sets the stage for a potential long opportunity in WTI Crude Oil as markets begin to price in shifting fundamentals and technical conditions align. Key Levels: • 2025 mCVAL: 63.38 • Q2 2025 mCVAH: 63.21 • AVWAP from 2025 Hi: 66.70 • Yearly 2025 VWAP: 67.44 • 2025- Mid Range: 66.52 Example Long Trade Idea: Probing Liquidity Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins • Entry: 63.50 • Stop: 62.90 • Target 1: 64.37 • Target 2: 66.70 • Risk: 120 ticks • Reward: 407 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4R Important Notes: • Note that DOE inventories numbers are scheduled today at 10.30 am ET. Watch your risk amid volatility caused by this economic release. • These are example trade ideas and not financial advice or recommendations. • The trade idea considers 2 contracts to calculate risk and reward. • Traders should conduct independent analysis and ensure proper risk management. • Stop-loss orders are not guaranteed; slippage may occur, resulting in losses beyond predefined levels. • AVWAP levels are accurate at the time of posting, they may vary as indicator further calculates prices with new volume and price information. Glossary Index for all technical terms used: VAL: Value Area Low VAH: Value Area High VP: Volume Profile AVP: Anchored Volume Profile C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) AVWAP: Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price NYMEX:CL1!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeClear
XNG/USD Natural Gas Heist: Thief Style Long Entry Plan!🌍 Greetings, global treasure hunters! Ciao! Salaam! Salut! Hola! 🌍 Attention, wealth snatchers and market bandits! 💸🦹‍♂️ Crafted with the slick Thief Trading Style—a blend of sharp technicals and cunning fundamentals—here’s our blueprint to raid the XNG/USD Natural Gas Energy Market. Follow the chart’s game plan, locked on a long entry. Our mission? Slip out near the perilous YELLOW ATR Zone—a high-stakes trap where overbought vibes, consolidation, or trend flips empower bearish rogues. 🎯💰 “Cash out and spoil yourself, crew—you’ve earned it!” 🥂🚀 Entry 1: “The safe’s cracked! Watch for the MA breakout at 3.750, then pounce—bullish loot awaits!” Hot tip: Set buy stop orders above the Moving Average or place buy limit orders at the latest 15/30-min swing low/high for pullback plays. 📣 Add a chart alert to nab the breakout! Entry 2: “The caper’s live! Lurk for the MA pullback in the Grand Heist Zone at 3.300, then strike—fortune favors the bold!” Stop Loss 🛑: “📢 Yo, crew, hear me out! 🗣️ If you’re jumping in with buy stop or limit orders, don’t set that stop loss until the breakout pops off. 💥 Play it safe and place it where I mark 📍, or go rogue if you’re feeling wild 😎—but don’t blame me if the market bites! ⚡ Your risk, your call.” 📍 Thief SL set at the nearest 4H swing low (3.400) or Grand Heist Zone SL at (3.100) for swing trades. 📍 Adjust SL based on your trade risk, lot size, and multi-order strategy. Target 🎯: 4.220—or ghost out early if the vibe shifts. 🧲 Scalpers, eyes up! 👀 Stick to long-side scalps. Got deep pockets? Dive in now. Otherwise, join the swing traders for the big heist. Use trailing SL to lock in your haul. 💵 ⛽ XNG/USD Natural Gas is buzzing with bullish heat, fueled by key drivers. ☝📰 Dig into Fundamentals, Macro Trends, COT Reports, Inventory Data, Seasonal Patterns, Sentiment Vibes, Intermarket Insights, and Future Targets. Check the full scoop here 👉🔗 ⚠️ Heist Alert: News & Position Defense 🗞️🚨 News drops can shake the market like a getaway chase. To protect your stash: Skip new trades during news hours. Use trailing stops to guard profits and secure your escape. 💎 Back our heist crew! 💥 Smash that Boost Button 💥 to fuel our money-grabbing spree. Join the Thief Trading Style squad and swipe profits daily with swagger. 🏆🤝🎉 Catch you at the next caper—stay sharp, bandits! 🤑😼🚀
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by Thief_Trader
5
Crude oil------sell near 65.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Gold has been moving recently, and crude oil has also moved with it. Yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big positive, and is currently testing the big pass near 65.00 on the weekly line. If this position is broken, we will be bullish on the long-term trend of crude oil. Today's crude oil idea is to rebound in the short term, and the general trend is bearish. Consider selling when it approaches 65.00 for the first time. 61.30 is the buying and receiving position. Pay attention to the inventory changes of crude oil later. Operational suggestions: Crude oil------sell near 65.00, target 63.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314
TA on WTI Oil - 2025.05.14Quick technical analysis on WTI oil. Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by Marketscom
Crude Oil Going Higher - TA and fundamentals aligneThe 0-5 count is not over yet. Sudo 4 and 5 are still lurking. It's good to see how the Medianline-Set cought the Highs of the swings. Likewise we can see the subborn rejection at the Center-Line at P3. I will not trade CL to the short side, until it's clear that P4 is engraved in this Chart. Until then, I maybe shoot for some intraday or dayli trades in Crude. Economy Facts that support a rise, up to P4: Crude oil refineries typically switch to producing more gasoline (fuel for cars) in the spring, particularly around March to April in the United States and other northern hemisphere countries. Seasonal demand: Warmer months mean more driving and vacation travel, increasing gasoline demand. Regulatory change: Refineries begin producing summer-grade gasoline, which has lower volatility and is required by environmental regulations (especially in the U.S. under EPA rules). The switch to summer-grade gasoline must be completed by June 1st for retail and May 1st for terminals and pipelines in the U.S. In Summary: - Switch begins: March–April - Completed by: May (terminals), June (retail) - This seasonal shift is often called the "refinery maintenance season" or "spring blend switch."
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
USOIL:The short-term trend direction resumes an upward trend.The short-term trend of USOIL has started to rise again and is currently fluctuating around $63. The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, and the objective short-term trend direction has resumed an upward trend. The oil price in the early trading session has declined within a narrow range, forming a secondary rhythm. According to the law of primary and secondary alternation, it is expected that the intraday trend of crude oil will continue to rise slightly. USOIL buy@62-62.5 tp:64-64.5 I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
TVC:USOIL
by H_C_01
WTI OIL Buy and sell levels within its Channel Down.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern on the 1D time-frame. The price is now rising having priced its most recent technical Lower Low. Every Lower High rejection happened either on or above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). With the current rebound looking similar to September - October 2024, we expect a 0.786 Fib and 1D MA200 test at $68.50 (buy) and then reversal to a minimum -17.30% decline to $57.00 (sell). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:WTI
by TradingShot
1
#GAS/USDT#GAS The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading towards a strong breakout and retest. We are experiencing a rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 3.55. We are experiencing a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend. We are looking for stability above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 3.58 First target: 3.74 Second target: 3.83 Third target: 3.96
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
WTI Oil H4 | An overlap support at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) could fall towards an overlap support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 60.44 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 57.60 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 63.42 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:USOILLong
by Tradu
Crude Oil Dipped: Downtrend Could ResumeFenzoFx—Crude oil has begun consolidating around $63.5, a resistance level aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Selling pressure has resulted in a long-wicked bearish candlestick pattern at this level. The primary support level stands at $61.45. A break below this threshold could trigger a new bearish wave, potentially driving the price toward the $60.20 support, reinforced by the 50-period simple moving average. However, the primary trend remains bullish as long as the price holds above the $60.20 support.
TVC:USOILShort
by FenzoFxBroker
USOIL Today's strategyThe short-term trend of USOIL hit a new high, reaching around $63.5 before falling back and adjusting. The oil price broke below the moving average system, and the objective short-term trend direction has entered a transformation. In the MACD indicator, the fast and slow lines crossed below the zero axis, and the bearish momentum is quite strong. It is expected that after the oil price in the day falls back in line with the trend, it will obtain support near 60 and then rebound upwards. USOIL sell@62-62.5 tp:61-60.5 I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
TVC:USOIL
by H_C_01