CRUDE OIL Weekly Forecast: Bearish! Wait for SHORTS!Price has traded through the low @67.71, indicating a shift in the market from bullish to bearish bias. There is an untapped imbalance above @67.87, an Internal Liquidity target. As we know. price seeks liquidity from External liquidity (lows and highs) to Internal Liquidity (FVGs). So the idea here is to wait for the pullback into the -FVG/imbalance and look for valod short setups, targeting the lows @66.98 and 66.50.
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Energy Commodities
BRIEFING Week #49 : Still nothing !Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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USOIL Will Go Higher From Support! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 67.101.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 68.230 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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The plan to go long on crude oil beginsBros, today's NFP market is somewhat disappointing. Gold did not activate our limit orders during the rebound. So we don't have a good position to participate in gold trading.
At present, I pay more attention to crude oil than to gold. At present, crude oil has fallen to around 66.95 and has not effectively fallen below 67. Moreover, crude oil has repeatedly turned the tide in the 67-66 area, successfully stopped the decline and successfully reversed the trend, so crude oil has now entered a strong buying area.Therefore, crude oil is currently at a very attractive price near 67. I think there will be a large influx of buying funds in this area, thus supporting the oil price to rise again.
Then I think we can start to go long on crude oil in this position area! Wish us good luck! Bros, are you also bullish on crude oil in the short term like me? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
Don't be surprised with a $50 oil price next yearThe waves show the direction, and if this daily candle closes significantly lower than the previous low, and the red countertrend line breaks, we may witness a nice fall in the oil prices.
Of course, the OPEC may step in, but the trend is a trend.
Let me know what you think in the comments!
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined!
Don't be surprised with a $50 oil price next yearThe waves show the direction, and if this daily candle closes significantly lower than the previous low, and the red countertrend line breaks, we may witness a nice fall in the oil prices.
Of course, the OPEC may step in, but the trend is a trend.
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined!
USOIL SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL is making a bearish pullback on the 1H TF and is nearing the support line below while we are generally bullish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following long a good option for us with the target being the 68.67 level.
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Natural Gas Prices Rebound from 2.5-Month LowNatural Gas Prices Rebound from 2.5-Month Low
On 19 November, we analysed the natural gas price chart, noting:
→ the formation of an upward channel (marked in blue);
→ a potential bullish attempt to break the key $3.200 level, which had acted as resistance (highlighted with arrows).
As seen on the XNG/USD chart, the price did rise above $3.200 but failed to hold. After fluctuating in the upper half of the channel, it dropped below $3.200 to the channel's lower boundary, driven by:
→ a bearish report from the Energy Information Administration, showing US gas inventories above the five-year average;
→ a report from financial firm LSEG noting increased average gas production across 48 US states.
This decline pushed natural gas prices to a 2.5-month low around the $2.935 level.
What Could Happen Next?
From a technical perspective on the XNG/USD chart:
→ support from the channel's lower boundary (reinforced by the psychological $3.000 mark) is already evident in an emerging price reversal (indicated by an arrow);
→ on the other hand, the $3.200 level may resume acting as resistance.
It’s likely that natural gas prices will fluctuate between $3.000 and $3.200, with weather forecasts playing a decisive role in shaping consumption expectations for the winter season.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RBOB post tariff structure and range to take advantage of!Hi guys today we are starting off with RBOB , which has been quiet for the past month and it has been trading in a structured range between 2.05 as a high resistance and 1.92 / 1.94 as strong support. As of today we are currently sitting at the given support line of 1.92 and the latest news which came from President Trump that he will impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican Imports , which would probably impact and touch the Oil Industry. The U.S. imports 4M barrels of Crude Oil every single day from Canada and around 900-1M barrels of Oil Crude Oil from Mexico. These tariffs would definitely touch the consumer as a long term which would give us a boost into the overall demand / supply play around the prices of Petroleum Products.
Current entry RBOB (Gasoline)
1.9300 entry level, with two separate targets.
Target 1: 1.9755
Target 2: 2.0310
The strategy can be repeated after the targets are touched with a patient retracement of the lower support line and input similar targets.
NaturalGas enters resistance zone. H4 25.11.2024⛽️ NaturalGas enters resistance zone 📉
On gas the price has entered the zone of strong resistance 3.51-3.63 from which I expect a new exit of the price down. Now on the comeback a false break above is possible, but in general the zone for selling is strong. I aim for a bounce down to 3.0 and 3.15, and there will clarify. The main support is near 3.0 and there is the boundary of the ascending channel from which they can bounce up again.
FX:NGAS
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OIL: Day 3, market in breakoutLooking at this chart, I can see a great potential to complete a 2 weeks dump and pump scenario, which it can end up today with the OIL major red new on calendar at 10:30am NYT.
But let's analyse this market, trying to understand what and why specific moves can happen.
Starting from the last week, Monday was a dump day and Tuesday slightly expanded the range to the downside.
Most of the week just consolidated down low without achieving to push the price lower, and Friday it was the first time in the week where we could see the market pushing higher, breaking the high of day. It doesn't necessary mean that something was going to change in the market, but for sure now also long breakout traders are involved.
Friday as well, closed in breakout short, placing the new low of week.
Monday starts the new week and we could see the price retesting the LOW, is now important to understand the behaviour of price once the market reaches levels of interests and this double bottom formation into the previous LOW it may locks the low for the entire week.
Tuesday typically expands the range, which it happened and closed in breakout long.
Today, the market looks like coiling into the current high of day/how of week and I won't be surprise to see a parabolic move!
I currently have a better long thesis pushing up back into the previous HOW, however, I cannot guess how the market will behave during the NY session.
I cannot exclude that price can break down starting a reversal process during Thursday and Friday.
For the long view I would like to see the market coiling into once of these level marked
For the short view I would like to see a market breaking down, pumping back up into the HOD during NY session for a short scalp trade.
I will update the post during the day :)
Have a good trade and for any question feel free to ask!
WTI OIL Bullish break-out to $76 imminent.WTI Oil (USOIL) is so far following our last call (November 26, see chart below) on high precision as, after once last pull-back to the Support Zone, it is now rebounding:
As you can see now on this 1D chart, the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today but based on the other 2 November attempts, even a candle close above it doesn't translate into a sustainable break-out.
Contrary to that, however, those 2 attempts weren't supported by a 1D RSI Higher Lows base similar to September's. As you can see that same pattern was that initiated the rebound on the Support Zone that broke above the 1D MA50 and extended even above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and tested the bottom of the 4-month Resistance Zone.
As a result, our $76.00 Target remains intact, which is marginally above the 0.786 Fib and projected to be just below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
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US OIL Trade Log USOIL Short Position Analysis
Technical Indicators :
- 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG): Current price is within the 1-hour FVG, indicating a potential short entry point.
- MACD Divergence: A bearish divergence between the MACD indicator and price action suggests weakening upward momentum.
- Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Divergence: Bearish CVD divergence indicates increasing selling pressure despite rising prices.
- Ichimoku Kijun Levels: Price is above the 1H, 4H, and daily Kijun lines, placing it in a relative premium zone, which may precede a downward correction.
Fundamental Factors :
- Fear Premium: Recent price increases are attributed to geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a 'fear premium' in oil prices.
- Bearish Macro Outlook: Rising U.S. oil inventories and weak global demand projections, especially from China, suggest a bearish outlook for oil prices.
Trade Parameters :
- Position: Short USOIL
- Entry: Within the 1H FVG at current market price.
- Risk Management:
- Risk per Trade: 1% of trading capital
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2