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Crude Oil - High Tide Pt.2Pt 1 found here . This is an extremely critical market at this time. What must be understood, is NYMEX light crude oil is not its' own independent market, but rather a BENCHMARK for a larger market for crude oil globally, and its' derivatives. Consider a Kenyan bank, that owns a loan on a Kenyan gas station. What is the best instrument to hedge their investment? Well, obviously the answer is NYMEX:RB1! , NYMEX gasoline futures. The sovereign bond of gasoline prices so to speak. Examining the market technically, we see that it appears bullish. The market experienced a severe panic in price during 2020, as demand and logistics collapsed in face of a global epidemic. However the price has recovered considerably, due to OPEC controls and the global necessity for this commodity. In fact, the market has even retested attempts made at reaching its 2008 high. Many local market do not have access to global markets as might be expected, such as the NYSE and CME to conduct their day-to-day affairs. This highlights the importance of NYMEX:CL1! globally, not only for the physical delivery of light crude in the United States. But the global marketplace for light crude oil and its' derivatives, such as plastic containers, heating oil and cosmetic products. The reference price for such items by suppliers, is naturally the most liquid benchmark available to them. Which is to say, they will sell their product based on the most available market for their ingredients. A notion common in all business, to be examined at a global level to understand the relevance of this market into the future. This market exists in the United States, which is what underpins the importance of the US Dollar as this principle applies to all commodity and equity benchmarks. Furthermore, the principle of liquidity remains relevant all through history, where commodities as long as trade exists have been priced according to the most liquid benchmark. The relevance of the US Dollar can most clearly be observed in global bond markets. As capital becomes scarce as Quantitative Easing globally comes to an end, and begins to flow towards the USA, creating the rally in $TVC:DXY. Rates in sovereign debt markets in the US and abroad have risen, and prices have fallen. A lack of demand in sovereign debt outside the USA is being realized, as FRED:RRPONTTLD RRP usage has risen since the beginning of the war between Ukraine and Russia. Because the USA is also the global benchmark for interest rates, due to its deep liquidity. Banks all around the globe balance and hedge their local debt based on this proxy market. For all intents and purposes, this is the only game in town. It may seem odd that the price of crude oil in US Dollars has risen, given that the value of the US Dollar has risen significantly worldwide. Inflation domestically might dictate that the price of NYMEX:CL1! should fall, but this has not been the case. There is something beneath the surface, that indicates a deep value in this trade yet to be realised. Despite governments and activist organisations fighting against the product, its relevance in commerce has not diminished. Coupled with the importance of this global benchmark, the whole of oil-based product globally appears as important as ever. The market indicated last week the potential for a turning point, as it has capitulated. Traders should consider the market will likely make another low, but appears to be setting up for a rally.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FPS_Denny
Jesus help us! New to ECO and probably bought at the very wrong time. Currently watching this falling knife and wondering how I missed there monstrous amount of debt!!! It hurts so bad!! No idea where bottom is. I thought it was going to eat the gap and recover...looks like its beyond my crystal ball abilities. Crossing my fingers it doesn't go low enough to cause the DIV to get shut down but it's a huge div so it will either pay it forward like a golden goose or take hard earned money like so many other stocks and leave me thinking about savings accounts over investing!
NYSE:ECO
by Honkytime
USOIL Will Collapse! SELL! My dear subscribers, USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 71.12 pivot level. Bias - Bearish My Stop Loss - 71.78 Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 69.89 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILShort
by AnabelSignals
2
WTI 69.40 BULLS / APPROACHING 72.50 free daily planAs discussed in yesterday’s plan over @ Voila's Oil Trading (substack) why 69.40 key level will be delivering a strong push towards our 1st top of range target - 72.50. WTI 4 hour: WTI is pushing off 69.40 our intraday support . This buying will need to sustain above the 69.77 daily pivot as we look for a definitive break of 70.35 today… towards the 72.50 major resistance. We should only be minimizing long risk if price action is indicative of a 69.40 level break here. It’s not right now as the 4hr shows a 20 ema (red) trend holding. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Trade Plan! Continued buying above 69.40, long to the next levels: - 70.35 , 71.70 , 72.50 Strong selling below 69.40, short to the next levels: - 68.00 Daily pivot is 69.77
TVC:USOILLong
by trad070
WTI / US Oil Spot Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHallo! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist WTI / US Oil Spot Market Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry in pullback. Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2H timeframe Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Long side, If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. 💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
FPMARKETS:WTILong
by Thief_Trader
2
WTI - oil on fire!WTI oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. If the upward trend continues and the ceiling of the channel is broken, one can first look for positions to buy it and then look for positions to sell oil in the supply zone. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next positions to buy oil with the appropriate risk reward. Oil prices climbed as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated. Following Ukraine’s announcement that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile targeting the central city of Dnipro, Brent crude rose to $74 per barrel. Previously, Ukraine had primarily relied on long-range weaponry supplied by Western nations. If confirmed, this missile strike would mark the first use of such a weapon since its development during the Cold War era. In recent days, additional bullish signals for oil prices have emerged. Refinery product premiums relative to crude oil have reached multi-month highs. In the United States, as fuel producers along the coasts ramped up production to meet rising export demand, profit margins for converting crude oil into gasoline and diesel hit record levels. According to Reuters, OPEC+ is likely to maintain significant oil production cuts for an extended period due to weak global demand. Analysts and insiders suggest that the OPEC+ meeting in December will face major constraints in determining production policy. While increasing production amid weak demand could be risky, further cuts may prove challenging as some members push to raise output. OPEC+, which includes Russia and produces nearly half of the world’s oil, has repeatedly delayed its gradual production increase plans this year. Meanwhile, rising gas prices are creating tough challenges for European policymakers as they brace for a harsh winter. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg columnist, argues that Europe has yet to fully grasp the energy crisis stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He asserts that the continent has mistaken recent strategic successes for mere weather-related luck, but the situation has now deteriorated. This points to another winter of high gas and electricity prices, placing significant pressure on energy-intensive industries. Many large-scale manufacturers have announced plant closures and asset write-downs, while households face surging retail energy prices. This inflationary trend will add further complications for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Wholesale gas prices in Europe have risen to €47 per megawatt-hour, twice the February lows and 130% above the 2010-2020 average. Wall Street has raised concerns that a second Trump presidency could negatively impact oil prices, arguing that producers might ramp up drilling and production before facing Biden-era regulatory pressures. However, another faction in Wall Street suggests this narrative is incomplete. Standard Chartered points out that the nature of U.S. shale oil production makes it difficult to sustain long-term supply increases. Unlike OPEC producers, whose output is often controlled by state-owned oil companies, U.S. production is dominated by several large corporations, independent producers, and private firms. This perspective aligns with Goldman Sachs’ analysis. In July, Goldman Sachs predicted that U.S. crude oil production would grow by 500,000 barrels per day this year, a slower pace compared to last year’s 1 million barrels per day increase. Nevertheless, the U.S. will account for 60% of non-OPEC supply growth, with the Permian Basin expected to grow by 340,000 barrels per day annually—lower than the initial forecast of 520,000 barrels per day made by Wall Street analysts.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) has reversed off a resistance zone and it could drop lower from here. Sell entry is at 70.81 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 73.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 66.90 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
How To Trade Natural Gas: Tools and Approaches How To Trade Natural Gas: Tools and Approaches Natural gas trading presents unique opportunities due to its critical role in the global energy market and its inherent volatility. This article delves into the various strategies and tools traders can use to navigate natural gas CFDs, from fundamental and technical analysis to understanding market dynamics. Overview of the Natural Gas Market Made up of primarily methane, natural gas is a key fossil fuel that’s grown in use over the past two decades. It forms deep beneath the Earth's surface from the remains of plants and animals buried under layers of sediment and subjected to intense heat and pressure over millions of years. It’s typically found near oil reserves and must be extracted and processed before it can be used. Natural gas is a relatively clean-burning energy source, at least compared to coal or oil. It plays a crucial role in the global energy sector, accounting for about 23% of energy consumption worldwide in 2023, according to Statista, and 33% of US energy consumption in 2022, according to the EIA. It’s also highly versatile, used across various sectors. For instance, in 2022, natural gas provided approximately 38% of the energy consumed by the US electric power sector (EIA), making it a primary source for electricity generation. The industrial sector also accounted for around 32% of natural gas consumption, using it as both a fuel and a raw material for producing chemicals, fertilisers, and hydrogen. Natural gas is also essential for residential and commercial heating, particularly in colder regions. Moreover, the transportation sector adopts natural gas, particularly in the form of compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG), to reduce emissions and costs. Market Structure and Participants The natural gas market consists of various key players, including producers, consumers, and traders. Major producing countries include the United States, Russia, and Qatar. According to the EIA, the US led the world in LNG exports in 2023, averaging 11.9 billion cubic feet per day​. Natural gas production involves extraction, processing, and transportation to end-users via extensive pipeline networks and LNG shipping routes. The supply chain for natural gas begins with extraction from reservoirs, followed by processing to remove impurities and liquids. The processed gas is then transported through pipelines or converted into LNG for shipping to international markets. Once delivered, it is distributed to consumers for the various applications described. Key participants in the natural gas market include multinational energy companies (e.g., ExxonMobil, Gazprom), regional producers, and numerous traders who facilitate the buying and selling of natural gas on commodity exchanges. These players operate within a complex regulatory framework that varies by country, influencing production levels, prices, and market dynamics​. Key Factors Influencing Natural Gas Prices Let’s now take a closer look at the factors driving natural gas prices. Supply and Demand Dynamics The balance of supply and demand is a fundamental driver of natural gas prices. On the supply side, production levels play a crucial role. As with many commodities, higher production, in this case driven by advancements in extraction technologies like hydraulic fracturing, typically leads to lower prices. Storage levels also impact prices; high storage volumes, or inventories, can cushion against supply disruptions, keeping prices relatively stable. Conversely, low storage levels can lead to price spikes. Consumption patterns are equally important; industrial usage, residential heating, and electricity generation are primary demand drivers. Additionally, the cost of extraction, including technological and labour costs, feeds into the overall pricing of natural gas​. Geopolitical Events and Policies Geopolitical stability and regulatory policies significantly affect natural gas prices. For example, the substantial 2022 reduction of Russian gas exports to Europe caused record price increases due to severe supply constraints​​. Trade policies, such as tariffs and export restrictions, also impact prices. The US has seen a notable rise in LNG exports in recent years and become a major supplier of natural gas to Europe. Recent policy decisions aimed at energy security and diversification, especially in Europe and Asia, have led to increased demand for non-Russian natural gas, affecting global prices​. Weather Patterns and Seasonal Variations Weather significantly affects natural gas demand and supply. Cold winters increase demand for heating, often leading to higher prices, while mild winters can reduce demand and depress prices. Similarly, hot summers boost demand for electricity to power air conditioning, influencing prices. Natural disasters like hurricanes can disrupt production and transportation infrastructure, causing supply shortages and price spikes​. Natural Gas Trading Instruments When it comes to actually trading gas, there are a few instruments traders use. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) CFDs are a popular instrument for trading natural gas due to their flexibility and leverage. A CFD is a derivative that allows traders to speculate on the price movements of natural gas without owning the physical commodity. Traders can go long (buy) if they anticipate price increases or short (sell) if they expect prices to fall. They are the most popular choice for anyone looking to be a natural gas trader. The CFD natural gas symbol is XNGUSD. You can trade US natural gas CFDs in FXOpen’s TickTrader trading platform. One of the main advantages of CFDs is leverage, which allows traders to control a large position with a relatively small amount of capital, potentially enhancing returns but also increasing risk​​. Additionally, CFDs offer access to the natural gas market with lower upfront costs and the convenience of trading on various platforms without the need for storage or delivery logistics​. Futures Contracts Natural gas futures are standardised contracts traded on exchanges such as the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). These contracts obligate the buyer to purchase a specific amount of natural gas at a predetermined price on a future date. Futures are widely used by producers and consumers to hedge against price volatility and by speculators seeking to take advantage of price movements​. While natural gas futures are suitable for some traders, their complexity and potential obligation to take delivery may deter those simply looking to speculate on the market’s price movements. Options Contracts Options on natural gas futures provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell futures contracts at a set price before the option's expiration. These can be used to hedge positions in the natural gas market or to speculate with limited risk. Options strategies can range from simple calls and puts to more complex combinations like spreads and straddles, but are also highly complicated and require a strong understanding of how options work. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to natural gas prices without trading futures or options directly. These funds track the price of natural gas or the performance of natural gas companies. ETFs are generally used by investors to diversify their portfolios and participate in the natural gas market with lower complexity compared to futures and options​. What to Know Before Trading Natural Gas Before trading natural gas, it’s important to consider the following key aspects: - Trading Units: Natural gas is typically traded in units of million British thermal units (MMBtu). - Trading Hours: Natural gas trading hours are specific, with futures trading on the NYMEX from 6:00 PM to 5:00 PM ET, Sunday through Friday. Ensure you know the trading schedule of your platform before getting started. Both CFD US natural gas and forex pairs can be traded on FXOpen’s TickTrader platform on a 24/5 basis. - Volatility: Natural gas prices are highly volatile, often more so than currency pairs and many other commodities. Be prepared for significant price swings. - Spreads: The relatively wide spread of natural gas, or the difference between the bid and ask price, can lead to higher trading costs. - Leverage and Margin: Trading natural gas, especially through CFDs, involves leverage, which can amplify both gains and losses. Ensure you understand margin requirements and risk management strategies​ before getting started. Key Strategies for Trading Natural Gas CFDs Trading natural gas CFDs can be a lucrative endeavour, but it requires a solid understanding of the market and effective natural gas trading strategies. Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis focuses on the economic factors that influence natural gas prices. Key elements include supply and demand dynamics, inventory levels, and macroeconomic indicators. For instance, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases weekly reports on natural gas storage levels, which provide insights into supply and demand balance. High inventory levels generally indicate lower prices, while low inventory can signal higher prices due to anticipated supply constraints​. Economic growth and industrial demand also play significant roles; as industries expand, natural gas consumption typically rises, driving prices higher​. Moreover, expectations of colder-than-normal winters increase demand for heating, driving prices up, while mild winters can suppress demand. Lastly, geopolitical events, such as conflicts in gas-producing regions, can disrupt supply chains and cause price volatility. Technical Analysis While fundamental analysis helps determine the market outlook, technical analysis is often used by traders to find entry and exit points. Key principles like support and resistance levels, trend identification, and breakout strategies still apply in natural gas markets. However, price volatility may make some established technical strategies less effective. It’s key to test different indicators and patterns to find what works best. Momentum indicators, such as the Stochastic indicator or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD); trend tools, like the Average Directional Index (ADX) and moving averages; and volume-based tools, such as the VWAP and Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP), can all assist in analysing and trading natural gas CFDs. In practice, a fundamental-first approach may look like a trader monitoring inventory reports, economic growth, and weather patterns to gain an idea of the market’s direction. They might then use technical analysis signals to time trades and find precise entry and exit points. Sentiment and Positioning Analysis Sentiment analysis involves gauging the overall market mood, which can significantly influence natural gas prices. While there is no single unified measure of natural gas trading sentiment, tools such as Investing.com’s Natural Gas Scoreboard can offer a quick look at how traders view the market. Market positioning can be identified using the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows the positions of different market participants in natural gas futures contracts. Generally speaking, bullish sentiment and positioning might drive prices up, while the opposite sentiment can push prices down. However, traders should also note that sentiment and positioning can indicate overreactions, creating opportunities for contrarian strategies. Tools for Trading Natural Gas There are several tools that traders can use to analyse and trade natural gas. For instance: 1. Trading Platforms - TradingView: Offers comprehensive charting tools and real-time market data. - MetaTrader 4/5: Provides advanced trading and analysis tools widely used by traders. - TickTrader: FXOpen’s own TickTrader features an advanced charting platform with more than 1,200 trading tools. You can trade at any of these platforms with FXOpen. 2. Inventory and Storage Reports - EIA's Natural Gas Weekly Update: Offers comprehensive analysis of markets, including supply, demand, and price trends. - EIA’s Natural Gas Weekly Storage Report: Features a snapshot of the US supply of natural gas across different regions. 3. Sentiment and Positioning - CFTC's Commitments of Traders (COT) Report: Provides insights into market positioning by different trader categories. - Investing.com’s Natural Gas Scoreboard: Indicates the bullish or bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas. 4. Market Reports - American Gas Association (AGA) Reports: Provides detailed analysis and statistics on markets. 5. Weather Forecasts - AccuWeather or Weather Underground: Accurate weather forecasts are essential as they significantly impact natural gas demand. - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Offers long-term climate predictions. 6. News Websites - Bloomberg - Reuters - MarketWatch - CNBC 7. News Aggregators and Economic Calendars - Energy EXCH - FinancialJuice The Bottom Line Trading natural gas can be an interesting endeavour with the right strategies and tools. By understanding market dynamics and leveraging advanced platforms, traders can navigate this volatile market effectively. Open an FXOpen account to access a robust trading platform and start trading natural gas CFDs today, maximising your trading potential with professional tools and support. FAQs Where Can I Trade Natural Gas? You can trade natural gas through brokers that offer CFDs, such as FXOpen. These platforms allow you to speculate on live prices without owning the physical commodity. FXOpen provides a natural gas trading platform via TickTrader, known for its user-friendly interface and access to a wide range of trading tools and resources​. How to Trade Natural Gas? Trading natural gas can be done through various methods, including CFDs, futures, options, and ETFs. CFDs are most popular for retail traders due to their lower capital requirements and leverage options. How to Buy Natural Gas Futures? To buy natural gas futures, you need to open an account with a broker that offers futures trading, such as CME Group. After funding your account, you can trade futures contracts, which are standardised agreements to buy or sell natural gas at a specific price on a future date. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDEducation
by FXOpen
9
USOIL Will Go Down! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 69.181. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 63.975. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SignalProvider
1