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FREY: Possible Short Squeeze Playing Out?This popped today on my scanner. Skimmed Jan 17 5C while it was under 0.05c. Buying under 0.02 and selling at 0.04 or above. Worked into a nice position which is mostly covered by the profits. The stocks been beaten down with some bad reviews. I would like to see it run up to at least 2.85$. It would have been a better entry Friday but I don''t think its to late to enter now. After hours Mark is 0.075. Use limit orders as there can be a spread.
NYSE:FREYLong
by Brohma
Energy Stock Surge? ENI S.P.A Bullish Breakout IncomingENI S.P.A, a leading global oil company, is currently trading at $14.18 , demonstrating strong bullish momentum on the weekly chart. Our proprietary W.ARITAs indicator reveals a significant buildup in bullish momentum, suggesting an imminent breakout from the well-defined inverted head and shoulders pattern . This pattern, widely recognized as a reversal signal, aligns with ENI’s recent strategic moves, including its expansion in Alaska and increased shareholder rewards through a $2 billion share buyback . These developments underscore the company’s robust financial health and its commitment to growth and investor value, which are likely to fuel further stock appreciation. Key Technical Levels: Order Box (OB) Target 1: $18.05 - $19.62 Order Box (OB) Target 2: $23.18 - $24.29 Given the current bullish setup, these targets reflect potential zones for profit-taking, with the first Order Box (OB Target 1) offering a conservative target range and OB Target 2 representing an extended bullish goal. With supportive corporate actions and technical strength, ENI is well-positioned for growth, making it a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure in the energy sector. Keep an eye on the weekly close to confirm the breakout from the inverted head and shoulders pattern for confirmation of further upside potential. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Investing in stocks involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor to assess your individual risk tolerance and objectives before making any investment decisions.
GETTEX:ENILong
by insidermike
You can buy it here.. Its fineOMXCOP:VWS Recent pullback is a fine buying opportunity. Maybe we bottomed and break the downtrend now, Maybe we have a leg lower to ~120 - a chance to back up the truck. In any case this one will AT LEAST double in value over the next 3 years. Europe will make a lot of windmills in the next 3 years, it is vital for the future of European energy independence, so if you believe there is a future - then this is a good company to build a position in this winter. Cheers.
OMXCOP:VWSLong
by PotatoJuice99
4
XLE Long DailyAsset Class: Indices Income Type: Daily Symbol: XLE Trade Type: Long Trends: Short Term: Up Long Term: UP Set-Up Parameters: Entry: 90.44 Stop: 89.22 TP 93.70 (2.8:1) Trade idea: Retest of 1H demand zone formed by a drop-base-rally near the breakout level, SL is a bit lower to cover the deeper RBR structure as the price might test tis liquidity. TP set at the nearest SZ with a 2.8:1 risk-reward ratio. The RSI is oversold. !!Be aware of pending Economic Reports. If price is within 20 pips of proximal value at time of major impact report, then Confirmation entry. Trade management: **When price hits 1:1 or T1, consider moving stop to entry in case of pullback. **Disclaimer**: The trading strategies, ideas, and information shared are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, currencies, or financial instruments. You should do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred from following these trading ideas.
AMEX:XLELong
by MESHANL
1
Trade Idea | COP | ConocoPhillips | LongLong Entry: 107.50 Stop Loss: 104.50 We are long on this one for now as oil and its peers are starting to advance due to the increasing tension in Middle East. USO is now at $72.11 and might be at $75.00 before this week ends, if no visible peace talks between each countries. If the momentum to the upside sets in, COP might be able to test the $115 level in no time. If that happens, moving the stop to $110.00, which is now above the entry price is highly recommended to somehow protect the floating gain. I will stay long on this one as long as the narrative on this situation stays the same. -BB
NYSE:COPLong
by blue039
2
Is Global Oil Demand the Key to Energy Market Stability?In the intricate landscape of global energy markets, the question of oil demand remains a central enigma. Driven by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production strategies, and economic dynamics, global oil demand is a complex tapestry that shapes the future of energy markets. Geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, have historically been a significant driver of oil price volatility. The recent escalation of tensions has once again underscored the delicate balance between geopolitical stability and global oil supply. As geopolitical risks rise, so too does the price of oil, impacting investors in oil-related securities like the United States Oil Fund (USO). However, geopolitical factors are just one piece of the puzzle. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, play a crucial role in regulating global oil supply. Their production decisions, often influenced by economic considerations and geopolitical pressures, can significantly impact oil prices and, consequently, global oil demand. Beyond geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ dynamics, economic factors also play a vital role in shaping global oil demand. The global economy, with its cyclical nature, influences energy consumption. During periods of economic growth, oil demand tends to increase, while economic downturns can lead to reduced consumption. The interplay between geopolitical risks, OPEC+ strategies, and economic factors creates a complex and dynamic environment for the global oil market. Understanding these intricate relationships is essential for investors seeking to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the oil sector.
AMEX:USOLong
by signalmastermind
COT Strategy - Crude Oil LongsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL again this week. To clarify, this was setup last week also, and triggered me long this week via a CCI divergence long trigger. Based on this weeks COT strategy analysis, I think this is a nice market for further upside and will look to enter again via 18MA & 10H8C MAC entry methods. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal. Net Positioning: Max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small Spec Index: Buy Signal. Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries. Front Month Premium Market. True Seasonal up to Mid October. Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic. Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a Daily long trigger. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
75: Key Levels Amidst Biofuel Plant Construction HaltShell (SHEL) is navigating significant financial and operational challenges. The company recently announced a delay in the construction of its biofuel plant in Rotterdam, which was initially expected to be operational this year but has now been postponed to 2030. This delay has resulted in a financial setback of at least €554 million, potentially escalating to nearly €1 billion, due to technical challenges and unfavorable market conditions. Given this backdrop, Shell's stock is currently rejecting the key level at 34.315. Here’s what traders should watch: Bearish Scenario: If Shell loses the current low, we could see a trend change. The new area of interest will be around 32.65, where we anticipate potential support. This level becomes crucial as the market absorbs the financial impact of the delayed biofuel plant and Shell’s strategic adjustments. Bullish Scenario: If Shell regains the high at 34.315, we should monitor for new highs above 34.745. In this case, we are targeting a high around 36.75, which could sweep liquidity from a monthly high. This bullish momentum could be driven by positive market reactions to any new strategic initiatives Shell undertakes to mitigate the impact of the delay and to capitalize on future regulatory changes in the aviation fuel sector. The recent halt in the biofuel plant construction adds a layer of complexity to Shell's stock movement. Investors should closely watch these critical levels for potential trading opportunities, considering the broader implications of Shell's operational challenges and market dynamics.
EURONEXT:SHELL
by SeventyFive-Invest
Next week analysis: FANG & Energy Sector up? Hello everybody, thank you for checking out my trade idea and rundown of the stock market from last week. My analysis here covers the broad stock market, the energy sector, money inflow to small caps, and a potential trade setup in FANG, XLE, or ERX for next week. Please let me know if you have any questions about entries when to enter how to enter how to exit how to scale out or if you have any questions about the indicators I use or the indicators I don't use. I like to keep things simple; most indicators are derived from the price and volume, so I don't need to use indicators to tell what's going on. Have a great trading week and good luck.
NASDAQ:FANGLong
by PappyTrading
🛢️📈 Marathon Oil (MRO) Analysis 📈🛢️📊 Current Position: Strategic Growth: NYSE:MRO is strategically positioning itself for growth in the energy sector. LNG Sales Agreement: Initiatives like the LNG sales agreement with Glencore Energy UK enhance market positioning, particularly in European oil demand. Safety and Environmental Excellence: MRO's commitment to safety and environmental excellence, along with its ESG leadership, attracts investments and enhances reputation. Value Delivery: A CFO-driven framework aiming to return at least 40% of adjusted cash from operations to shareholders demonstrates value delivery. Balance Sheet Strengthening: Efforts to reduce debt and achieve positive free cash flow strengthen the balance sheet and bolster resilience. 💡 Outlook: Bullish Stance: A bullish stance on MRO is warranted, particularly above the $25.00-$26.00 range. Upside Target: The upside target is set at $36.00-$38.00 as MRO executes strategic initiatives and capitalizes on energy sector dynamics. 🚀 Investment Strategy: Entry: Consider entry above $25.00-$26.00, aligning with the bullish stance. Targets: Aim for profits at the identified upside target levels. Risk Management: Monitor industry trends, regulatory changes, and financial performance to manage risks effectively. 🌟 Note: Stay informed about energy market dynamics and company developments to make informed investment decisions! #MarathonOil #EnergySector #BullishAnalysis 🛢️📈
MLong
by Richtv_official
🛢️ Matador Resources (MTDR): Poised for Growth! 📈🚀📊 Company Overview: NYSE:MTDR is a US-based independent energy company. Recent interest from institutional investors signals growing confidence in its future. 📈 Growth Factors: Anticipated completion of the Pronto/San Mateo connection in 2024. Expected resolution of previous midstream constraints, driving further growth. Solid revenue growth of approximately 18.09% as of December 31, 2023, outpacing sector peers. 📉 Trade Plan: Entry: Above the $58.00-$60.00 range to capture bullish momentum. Upside Target: Aim for $95.00-$97.00, reflecting growth potential and positive sentiment. Risk Management: Set stop-loss orders to mitigate downside risk. 🔄 Strategy: Monitor institutional investor activity and industry developments for insights. Stay updated on company announcements and progress on key projects. Adjust trade plan based on market conditions and emerging trends. 📈 Note: Exercise caution and conduct thorough research before executing trades. #MTDR #EnergySector #Bullish 🛢️📈
NYSE:MTDRLong
by Richtv_official
MIC Electronics: 3 days of Lip-Lock in 10% UCMIC Electronics Limited is a global leader in the design, development & manufacturing of LED Video Displays, high-end Electronic and Telecommunication equipment. The boost in Green Energy, LED lights and Telecom has lifted the sentiments on MIC Electronics. Also, it recently started venturing into Co-Developing 42v/3A Electric Vehicle Battery Chargers for e-Bikes. All this resulting in a blasting rally in Mic Electronics On the Technical Front: MICEL was travelling within a Falling Parallel Channel since 2008 and finally BO of the 15 year Channel and then formed a Beautiful Cup and Handle Pattern on Monthly After Breaking out of C&H, it has not formed a Fresh Rounding Bottom Pattern - BO also done above 50.4 (CMP 51.5) Like the Infamous Hero Kamal-Hassan, MIC Electronics is also Lip-Locked in 10% UC for past 3 sessions :) :) :) Targets 65, 83, 108 Disclaimer: 3+ Years Teaching Experience in Stock Market - Technical Analysis, Advanced Patterns, Emotional Management, News based Trading... We are NOT SEBI Registered and Our focus is NOT providing Buy/Sell Recommendations/calls. Primary Objective is to provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide irrespective of its Side" *** Important *** Consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments -Team Stocks-n-Trends
NSE:MICELLong
by Stocks-n-Trends
India's Growth Story - Top 5 Sectors which will be in Lime-LightA Quick Overview of Global Major Economies Japan, US, UK, Australia, Germany are officially in Recession USA has not declared Recession officially as it is just covering up the underlying problem Chinese Economy is in serious turmoil Now where does India Stand? Which Sectors within India are dependent on these Foreign Economies? Which Sectors are in "Atmanirbhar" status ? which can continue their Rally ? As you all know Indian IT Industry is heavily dependent on Foreign Projects - US / UK / European / Australian IT Offshoring projects. Given these major economies are in Recession - IT will likely face "Some Impact". At the same time, globally there is big GaGa on Generative AI and Indian IT industry focussing on AI - is all set to Offset the negative impact from Classical Offshoring Projects. This will help ease some pressure on IT companies, but overall IT is expected to have slower growth Keeping aside the Politics, the current Governmental Policies are so favorable for the following sectors and hence I believe in India's Growth Story and expect a Blasting Rally on the below sectors Energy: India has transformed from a country begging western world for permission to buy Uranium for Domestic Nuclear Energy generation to a Country which stands tall on the use of All types of Green Energy (Solar, Wind, Hydrogen, Hydro-Electric etc...) and has become Truly Atmanirbhar in generating enough power for us. Green Energy is just starting up - there is much more to go and investments on Green Energy sector is only going to multiply after the Election Defence: India again has transformed from being a Major Defence Equipment Importer to a Major Defence Exporter. This again is a Sunrise Sector and Indian Defence Sector is going to grow multi-fold in future both in Short and Long Term and hence the Rally would Continue and even Grow bigger after the Election PSU: As you all know, the Central Govt is emphasizing on PSUs so much and advertising heavily in Parliament, Rajya Sabha/Lok Sabha to invest in PSUs. Irrespective of any politics, given the upcoming Election, the Govt cannot afford to have an impact to their Brand Image if PSUs crash. They won't allow that either Pre-Election or even Post-Election and Technically many PSU stocks are on the verge of Breakout / doing a Retest after break out. Long long way to go on PSU side Railways: With 3000+ New Trains, Bullet Trains, Conversion of traditional trains into Vande Bharat - the govt has made their plans clearly and invested heavily on Railway Modernisation plan. Even in the Interim budget there is strong Emphasis on Railway sector which is only going to multiply after the Election and hence the brief pause that we see in Railways will get released post Election and there is much Bigger Rally awaited in Railways in the next 3-5 years Infra: Next to Railways, the Govt has emphasized and invested heavily on the Infrastructure development and expansion throughout the country and detailed out their intentions even during the Interim budget. India's Road / Rail / Sea & Airport Infrastructure is seeing a Massive Growth in recent years making the setup ready for Make-in-India Theme and Ease-of-Doing-Business themes drawing huge amounts of Foreign Investments Given these reasons, I see a major and continued growth and expansion of the above 5 Macro Sectors and their dependent Sub-sectors like Cement, Steel & Metal sectors both in Short and Long Term (both pre and post-Election) I believe in India's Growth Story - both the Story & Screenplay are super Strong and Indian Economy is positioned so strong among their Global Peers and heading for non-stop growth while other majors have started to fall down (China, Germany, Japan, UK, France, USA etc...) Keep Holding your Winners. Always Analyse Technical Charts, Support & Resistance Levels of Individual Stocks before taking position Disclaimer: Stocks-n-Trends is NOT registered with SEBI. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions. If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments -Team Stocks-n-Trends
NSE:CNXENERGYLong
by Stocks-n-Trends
1
UEC an energy penny stock pops out of ascending channel LONGUEC is a uranium company somewhat independent of the oil, solar and lithium stocks that dominate the energy sector. Nuclear is touted as green and not contributory to climate change with no carbon impact. It pollution or radioactivity is self-contained and isolated with heavy regulatory safeguards All that said, a few days ago analysts at Eight Capital raised the status of UEC to "strong buy" with a price target of $13 or about 75% above current valuation. Such a high upside is uncommon in the energy sector. The 4H chart shows price broke out from an ascending channel of several months duration with a corresponding relative volume of 4x the running mean. The price action is that of a high tight flag patter n invoking the moderately strong probability of more bullish momentum after a consolidation is completed. I see this as a great long swing trade with earnings coming in two months or call options OTM targeting a strike price of $10 for the mid-March expiration. Given the stock price at present such call options would have about $40 premium per contract. Lastly, the ETFs URA and URNM appear to track the price action of UEC fairly well. If a trader prefers diversification or risk moderation of ETFs these two are reasonable alternatives. Uranium trades do not have geopolitical risk to consider as much as oil and gas yet another reason to give this a further look. .
AMEX:UEC
by AwesomeAvani
1
Understanding the Ripple Effects of U.S. Inventory Data on WTIThe American Petroleum Institute's latest report indicates a significant draw in U.S. oil inventories – a larger-than-expected decrease of 5.2 million barrels. But what does this mean for the market? This drop in inventories typically signals a tightening supply, which, in theory, should push oil prices up. However, the data also showed an increase in gasoline and distillates inventories, suggesting a contrasting scenario of weakened demand, particularly in the U.S., the world's largest fuel consumer. This weakened demand is further evidenced by the ongoing impact of a severe winter storm, restricting travel and, consequently, fuel usage. Technical analysis adds another layer to this narrative. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), a trend-following momentum indicator, shows sell signs, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains neutral. For market watchers, these indicators suggest potential shifts, with bears possibly entering at a point around $71.88 a barrel, pushing prices down to support levels of $69.42. Conversely, should the trend reverse, resistance might be met near $74.34 a barrel. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by legacyFXofficial
The Least Expected Multi-Bagger - RPowerMulti-baggers are identified in several ways - based on the Sector they operate, based on Management Conviction, Based on the product portfolio, Global Demand etc... But identifying a Multi-bagger from "Scrap" is extremely difficult, because by that time people would have made solid impressions that its a "Loser", "Worst Performer" etc... In the business of stock market - we can't afford to have Pre-judgements about particular stock, sector. The only thing that defines growth & future is "Support and Resistance" Levels. When a stock sky-rockets in short time, we call it best performer - without realizing the fact that it is NOT forming any Support levels behind it. (Example: IRCTC, IEX etc...) - Everyone wants a share of the company in FOMO. But when it falls - there is no support to catch it - everyone starts shouting, yelling, cursing the stock as "Worst Performer". Forget Emotions - Trade with understanding how a stock has to Grow & Fall. You will be able to Mine the Multi-bagger One such Script is RPower (Reliance Power). 2 Major Decisive Breakouts on Monthly 1) Multi-Year Falling Parallel Channel BO above 25 2) Cup and Handle BO above same 25 level Just look at the Volume Builtup on Monthly to confirm the structure It has reached the 1st target of 29 (provided as part of previous patterns on September). Now the next Targets are 37, 45 Disclaimer: Stocks-n-Trends is NOT a SEBI registered company. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi--timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions. If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments -Team Stocks-n-Trends
NSE:RPOWERLong
by Stocks-n-Trends
Energy Stocks: Macro Fib SchematicsThis idea beholds 6 of the largest Energy companies in the world. (Shell, Chevron, Exxon, BP, Duke, and OXY Petroleum.) These macro schematics have been crafted through meticulous Fibonacci techniques. I've laid every one on a 3 month timeframe starting at 1988. History buffs will understand the time reference to the rough "start" of Middle Eastern conflicts from the West and the rise of the price of "fossil fuels". I'm not begging anyone to understand this genius mastery of Fib tools. You either see it or you don't. I've linked my ENERGY COMMODITIES idea below for more analysis.
NYSE:XOM
by MichaelBsul
Tech stock Vs Energy stocks. The Competition for Decades This is an education-style publication where the main graph is a comparison (ratio) between two ETFs (funds) managed by State Street Global Advisors Corporation, the creator of the world’s first ETF (well-known in nowadays as AMEX:SPY ) and an indexing pioneer. The first one ETF is The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLK . 👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the Technology sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX . 👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide precise exposure to companies from Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals; software; communications equipment; semiconductors and semiconductor equipment; IT services; and electronic equipment, instruments and components. 👉 AMEX:XLK is a place where securities of American World-known Technology companies like Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , like Nvidia Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA and American Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD , like Cisco Systems Inc. NASDAQ:CSCO and Adobe Inc. NASDAQ:ADBE meet together. 👉 In contrast with other Technology-related ETFs like NASDAQ:QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq 100 Index ETF) or NASDAQ:ONEQ (Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF), stocks allocation in AMEX:XLK depends not only on their market capitalization, but also hugely on Technology industry allocation (like software, technology hardware, storage & peripherals, semiconductors & semiconductor equipment, IT services, communications equipment, electronic equipment instruments & components). That is why allocation of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLK ( Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Broadcom Inc. NASDAQ:AVGO ) prevails 50 percent of Funds assets under management. 👉 Typically AMEX:XLK holdings are Growth investing stocks. The second one ETF is The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLE . 👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the energy sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX . 👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide precise exposure to companies in the oil, gas and consumable fuel, energy equipment and services industries. 👉 AMEX:XLE allows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional style based investing. 👉 AMEX:XLE is a place where stocks of American World-known Oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM and Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX , like EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG and ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP , like Valero Energy Corp. NYSE:VLO and Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX meet each other. 👉 Weight of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLE (Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM , Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX and EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG ) prevails 45 percent of Funds assets under management. 👉 Typically AMEX:XLE holdings are Value investing stocks. The main graph represents different stock market stages of work 🔁 Early 2000s, or post Dot-com Bubble stage, that can be characterized as Energy Superiority Era. There were no solid Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR were huge like nowadays. Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jumped as much as $150 per barrel. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds collapsed more than in 10 times over this stage. 🔁 Late 2000s to early 2010s, or post Housing Bubble stage, that can be characterized as a Beginning of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned lower. Bitcoin born. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds hit the bottom. 🔁 Late 2010s to early 2020s, or post Brexit stage, that can be characterized as a Continuation of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned to Zero or so. Crude oil turned to Negative prices in April 2020 while Bitcoin hit almost $70,000 per coin in 2021. Ben Bernanke (14th Chairman of the Federal Reserve In office since Feb 1, 2006 until Jan 31, 2014) was awarded the 2022 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, jointly with Douglas Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig, "for research on banks and financial crises", "for bank failure research" and more specifically for his analysis of the Great Depression. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds becomes great and respectively with monetary stimulus hit the all time high. 🔁 Early 2020s, or post Covid-19 Bubble stage, that specifically repeats early 2000s Energy Superiority Era. There is no again Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR are huge nowadays like many years ago. Commodities prices like Wheat CBOT:ZW1! , Cocoa ICEUS:CC1! , Coffee ICEUS:KC1! , Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jump again to historical highs. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds is fading to moderate levels that can be seen as 200-Month simple moving average. 💡 In a conclusion.. I wonder, how the history repeats itself. This is all because markets are cyclical, and lessons of history always still remain unlearned. 💡 Author thanks PineCoders TradingView Community, especially to @disster PineCoder for its excellent and simple script Quantitative Easing Dates . Based on this script, Easing Dates are highlighted at the graph.
AMEX:XLKEducation
by Pandorra
Looming Threats to Food and Energy SecurityThe global food and energy markets face growing uncertainty and volatility in the coming years due to converging factors that could lead to supply shortages, price spikes, and potential shocks. One concern is the impact of declining sunspot cycles on the climate. Scientists predict that a grand solar minimum could occur in the coming decades, causing global cooling and disruptive weather patterns, negatively affecting grain production in key agricultural. With grain supplies tightened, any further demand increases would send prices a lot higher. Global grain consumption has grown steadily, increasing by over 2% in the last 25 years. Rising disposable incomes in developing countries have enabled consumers to add more protein foods like meat and dairy to their diets. However, this dietary shift puts pressure on grains, since over 8 pounds of grain is needed to produce just 1 pound of beef. Hence, increased meat consumption indirectly leads to higher demand for grains. The ongoing war in Ukraine has severely impacted global grain markets, compounding the risks. Combined, Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 25-30% of worldwide wheat exports. With both countries blocking or threatening to destroy grain shipments, the conflict poses a huge threat to food security especially in import-dependent regions like North Africa and the Middle East. Export restrictions like India's recent rice export ban to protect domestic food security are also tightening global grains trade. As supplies dwindle, agricultural commodities become more vulnerable to price shocks. These supply uncertainties make soft commodities like cocoa, coffee, and sugar especially at risk of price spikes in coming years. Prolonged droughts related to climate cycles like La Niña and El Niño could severely reduce yields of these crops grown in tropical regions of Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America. For instance, a drought in West Africa's prime cocoa-growing areas could significantly impact production. Cocoa prices are already trading near 6-year highs in anticipation of shortages. If drought hits key coffee-growing regions of Vietnam and Brazil, substantial price increases could follow. Similar severe drought potential exists in the U.S. Midwest this summer. Lack of rainfall and moisture could cause severe yield reductions in America's corn and soybean belts. Since the U.S. is the world's largest corn and soybean exporter, this would cause severe upward price pressures globally. The rise in agricultural commodities ETF Invesco DBA likely reflects investor concerns about impending supply shortages across farming sectors, and its price might be leading the spot price of agricultural commodities. Fertilizer prices also contribute to food market uncertainty. In 2021-2022 fertilizer prices skyrocketed due to energy costs rising, directly raising the cost of food production. When fertilizer prices surge, it puts immense pressure on farmers' costs to grow crops and indirectly influences food prices. However, falling fertilizer prices do not necessarily translate into lower food costs for consumers. Fertilizer prices have dropped substantially over the last year, without that meaning everything is fine with fertilizer production. Dropping fertilizer prices could actually indicate a slowdown in agriculture, as, lower demand for fertilizers could mean fewer farmers are investing in maximizing crop yields. In that case, food production may decline leading to higher prices due to supply and demand fundamentals. At the same time, if other farm expenses like machinery, seeds, or labor rise due to factors like high energy costs, overall production costs could still increase even as fertilizer prices decline. The energy markets face a similar mix of uncertainty and volatility ahead. Despite substantial declines in prices, the energy sector ETF XLE has held up well, suggesting investors anticipate a rebound in oil and natural gas. Fundamentally, both commodities could trade a lot higher in the long term, however in the medium term I believe that oil is poised to drop further to the $55-60 area before tightening supplies lead to much higher prices. Essentially what’s missing is a capitulation to flush bullish sentiment, and then lead to much higher prices. At the moment the market has found a balance between a weakening global economy and OPEC+ supply cuts. A key uncertainty is China's massive oil stockpiling in recent years, now totaling nearly 1 billion barrels. If oil exceeds $80-85 per barrel, China could temper price rallies by releasing some of these reserves, as it did in 2021. With China's economy in turmoil, further reserve releases may be needed to stimulate growth, but it’s unclear whether its economy will be able to come back easily. Weak demand from China is already an issue for the oil market, and releases from the Chinese SPR could restrain oil prices over the next year. However, on the bullish side, the world remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels lacking viable large-scale alternatives, even as ESG trends continue. OPEC's dwindling spare production capacity raises risks of undersupply. Even an economic recession may only briefly dampen oil prices before supply cuts by major producers again tighten markets. Ultimately, sustained high energy prices will restrain broader economic growth by reducing demand across sectors. The outlook for food and energy markets remains uncertain, with significant risks of continued volatility over the next few years. Multiple converging factors point to potential supply shortages and price spikes across agricultural commodities and fossil fuels. While prices may fluctuate in the short-term (6-12 months), the medium-term trajectory appears to be toward tighter supplies and higher costs for food and energy (2-5 years). To close on a more positive note, I believe that food and energy prices will see significant deflation as extreme technological progress pushes prices down in the long term (5+ years).
TVC:USOILEducation
by BitcoinMacro
1