S&P/TSX Composite Index Continues Record-Breaking MomentumCurrent Market Situation:
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed slightly above 24,050 on Friday, marking a 0.7% weekly gain and continuing its record-breaking trend.
Driving Factors:
Weak GDP data for August pointed to economic stagnation, reinforcing expectations of a dovish stance from the Bank of Canada, which improved market sentiment.
Gains in energy and financial sectors helped buoy the index. Notable stocks like Imperial Oil and TD Bank rose over 0.6%.
Challenges:
Declines in major stocks, including CIBC, TC Energy, and First Quantum, each down over 1.3%, weighed on the broader market's performance.
Outlook:
Despite some sector-specific declines, the index maintained its upward trajectory, remaining poised for a positive close to the week.
#SPTSX #StockMarket #CanadaEconomy #EnergyStocks #FinancialSector #MarketSentiment
Energystocks
XNGUSD Looking for Bullish continuation LONGXNGUSD is still in oversold and undervalued territory as demand may be mitigated
by anticipation of milder weather and supplies seem to be more than adequate. XNGUSD
may move higher if either of those factors changes. The chart shows price about 15% above
support and about 60% below heavy resistance. The RSI indicator shows the faster RSI line
above the 50 level and so I think the bullish move is supported by buying volume. I will take
a long trade on forex and in UNG / UNL on the equities market.
EXXON MOBIL This sell signal will take it to $105.00 minimum.Exxon Mobil (XOM) has been on a tremendous since the January 18 bottom and even more so since the start of this month (March). We are about to form a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame and last time this pattern emerged (September 20 2023), the market top was formed a week after.
In fact all Tops since November 2022 where formed on a Higher High sequence, confirmed by a 1D MACD Bearish Cross. As a result, we are waiting for the ideal sell opportunity on Exxon's next High and we will enter it after the MACD forms a Bearish Cross. All previous 3 corrective waves have hit at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That gives us a medium-term Target of $105.00.
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UEC an uranium miner rerverses and warms up LONGUEC in the past several days has put in a double and bottom appears to be gaining bullish
momentum based on the trend angle from today. The volatility indicator triggered buying
price pressure five days ago as shown on the indicator and encirled. the volatility of yesterday
and today may be shorts covering to close synergized with new buyers. The uranium sector
is heating up at this time. Many of the stocks in this sector are over the counter. The ETFs
are URA and URNM. I will add to my long position in UEC now.
EOAN or EO.N or Energy Long positionWe are currently in an uptrend with the 200 green ma line slooping up and the price beeing above it.
We hit a support that has previously been resisistance with multiple tops in the past.
From this support we have had positive uptrend bullish candles.
Now we set stoploss under the last bottom and go for a 1/1 ratio stoploss and take profit.
FCEL Energy Penny Stock Buy the near term Bottom LongFCEL a penny alternative energy stock is at a near-term bottom sitting at the POC line
of the volume profile and a standard deviation below the intermediate-term mean VWAP
about a month out from a good earnings beat. Given the current administrations unwavering
support for green enerby sometimes with grants subsidies and other hand- outs I see FCEL
as getting some trader attention of the good kind unlike PLUG which announced a large public
offering to dilute investors. FCEL could steal some of those investors. The supertrend indicator
is signaling a reversal at the confluence of the POC line with the VWAP band as
mentioned. My target is the mean VWAP at 1.50 for about 35% upside with a stop loss at
the recent pivot low of $1.09 making for a reward-to-risk ratio of better than 6.
I see this as a swing trade with potentially 75 days in front of it given the earning report
for 24Q1 is due a bit beyond that and best risk management would be to take a partial
and size down going into earnings.
UROY Short Sell Trade from High Tight Flag Breakdown SHORTUROY topped out as shown by my other ideas. Profits are redeployed into it in a short trade
to play the volatility. Expect 10% in 1-3 days. Text box comments are on the chart. The
volatility is increased;the uranium sector is hot ( no pun here) given the climate warming and t
the ongoing debates on fossil fuels and government initiatives supporting green energy and
trying to wean the oil addiction. ( ZOOM out and to the left for text comments )
EXXON MOBIL on the 1 year Support but on bearish bias.The Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is again testing Support 1 (97.85), which is holding since the March 13 2023 Low but on a bearish note as it recently broke below the October 2020 Higher Lows trend-line (was the long-term Support) and remains below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 12th week in a row.
This is obviously a long-term analysis on the 1W time-frame, but the chart can provide a clear view of the trend depending on the break-out. If the stock closes a 1W candle above the 1W MA50, we will turn bullish targeting $120.00 (just below Resistance 1). If it closes below Support 1, we will turn bearish targeting 84.50, just above Support 2 and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Note that the 1W RSI has been on a huge Bearish Divergence (Channel Down) since January 2022.
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Renergen is turning BULLISH after the crash Target to R23.72Cup and Handle seems to now be forming on Renergen.
It seems like there is a change in the wind for the stock as last year we predicted a big crash which struck at R9.33.
And This time around, we're seeing a Cup and Handle form.
It's not exactly there yet and we do need a break above the brim. But when it does so, we will see the price go above 200MA and head to the first target of R23.72.
Let's ee how it plays out.
Looming Threats to Food and Energy SecurityThe global food and energy markets face growing uncertainty and volatility in the coming years due to converging factors that could lead to supply shortages, price spikes, and potential shocks.
One concern is the impact of declining sunspot cycles on the climate. Scientists predict that a grand solar minimum could occur in the coming decades, causing global cooling and disruptive weather patterns, negatively affecting grain production in key agricultural. With grain supplies tightened, any further demand increases would send prices a lot higher.
Global grain consumption has grown steadily, increasing by over 2% in the last 25 years. Rising disposable incomes in developing countries have enabled consumers to add more protein foods like meat and dairy to their diets. However, this dietary shift puts pressure on grains, since over 8 pounds of grain is needed to produce just 1 pound of beef. Hence, increased meat consumption indirectly leads to higher demand for grains.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has severely impacted global grain markets, compounding the risks. Combined, Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 25-30% of worldwide wheat exports. With both countries blocking or threatening to destroy grain shipments, the conflict poses a huge threat to food security especially in import-dependent regions like North Africa and the Middle East. Export restrictions like India's recent rice export ban to protect domestic food security are also tightening global grains trade. As supplies dwindle, agricultural commodities become more vulnerable to price shocks.
These supply uncertainties make soft commodities like cocoa, coffee, and sugar especially at risk of price spikes in coming years. Prolonged droughts related to climate cycles like La Niña and El Niño could severely reduce yields of these crops grown in tropical regions of Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America. For instance, a drought in West Africa's prime cocoa-growing areas could significantly impact production. Cocoa prices are already trading near 6-year highs in anticipation of shortages. If drought hits key coffee-growing regions of Vietnam and Brazil, substantial price increases could follow.
Similar severe drought potential exists in the U.S. Midwest this summer. Lack of rainfall and moisture could cause severe yield reductions in America's corn and soybean belts. Since the U.S. is the world's largest corn and soybean exporter, this would cause severe upward price pressures globally. The rise in agricultural commodities ETF Invesco DBA likely reflects investor concerns about impending supply shortages across farming sectors, and its price might be leading the spot price of agricultural commodities.
Fertilizer prices also contribute to food market uncertainty. In 2021-2022 fertilizer prices skyrocketed due to energy costs rising, directly raising the cost of food production. When fertilizer prices surge, it puts immense pressure on farmers' costs to grow crops and indirectly influences food prices. However, falling fertilizer prices do not necessarily translate into lower food costs for consumers. Fertilizer prices have dropped substantially over the last year, without that meaning everything is fine with fertilizer production. Dropping fertilizer prices could actually indicate a slowdown in agriculture, as, lower demand for fertilizers could mean fewer farmers are investing in maximizing crop yields. In that case, food production may decline leading to higher prices due to supply and demand fundamentals. At the same time, if other farm expenses like machinery, seeds, or labor rise due to factors like high energy costs, overall production costs could still increase even as fertilizer prices decline.
The energy markets face a similar mix of uncertainty and volatility ahead. Despite substantial declines in prices, the energy sector ETF XLE has held up well, suggesting investors anticipate a rebound in oil and natural gas. Fundamentally, both commodities could trade a lot higher in the long term, however in the medium term I believe that oil is poised to drop further to the $55-60 area before tightening supplies lead to much higher prices. Essentially what’s missing is a capitulation to flush bullish sentiment, and then lead to much higher prices. At the moment the market has found a balance between a weakening global economy and OPEC+ supply cuts.
A key uncertainty is China's massive oil stockpiling in recent years, now totaling nearly 1 billion barrels. If oil exceeds $80-85 per barrel, China could temper price rallies by releasing some of these reserves, as it did in 2021. With China's economy in turmoil, further reserve releases may be needed to stimulate growth, but it’s unclear whether its economy will be able to come back easily. Weak demand from China is already an issue for the oil market, and releases from the Chinese SPR could restrain oil prices over the next year. However, on the bullish side, the world remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels lacking viable large-scale alternatives, even as ESG trends continue. OPEC's dwindling spare production capacity raises risks of undersupply. Even an economic recession may only briefly dampen oil prices before supply cuts by major producers again tighten markets.
Ultimately, sustained high energy prices will restrain broader economic growth by reducing demand across sectors. The outlook for food and energy markets remains uncertain, with significant risks of continued volatility over the next few years. Multiple converging factors point to potential supply shortages and price spikes across agricultural commodities and fossil fuels. While prices may fluctuate in the short-term (6-12 months), the medium-term trajectory appears to be toward tighter supplies and higher costs for food and energy (2-5 years). To close on a more positive note, I believe that food and energy prices will see significant deflation as extreme technological progress pushes prices down in the long term (5+ years).
ERX a leveraged ETF reflects the energy sector rise LONGERX as shown on the daily chart shows a VWAP band breakout into the mean VWAP
from the lower VWAP lines coupled with a rising momentum on the PMO targeting
72 as the YTD pivot high. Given this is a leverage play in the supertrend shift in a
major sector I see this as a low risk moderate reward potential type of trade
I will take this trade long expecting to reap simple modest unrealized profit.
The stop loss is @ 58.6 while the upside is 10%. Please comment if you need
more details or are requesting a call option setup specifics.
x
HAL an energy stock setting up LONGHAL being part of the energy/ oil sector has been down lately but after all in keeping
with the concept of buying low and selling high, it may be at a buying point. Here in the 4H
chart, I have set up two long term anchored VWAPs one at the swing pivot high a year ago
and another at a swing pivot low last October. As a result the chart has zones between the
values (1) the mean VWAP zone between the two thick black lines. (2) the upper and lower
one standard deviation from the mean zones between lighter blue lines and (3) the
upper and lower two standard deviations from the mean zones between the lighter red lines.
HAL's price has crossed the mean WVAP zone from underneath it, a sign of bullish
momentum and so a buy signal. The targets are the evolving dynamic resistance above
in the form of the zones between the blue lines and beyond that the red lines.
The volume profile with a POC line near to the mean VWAP validates the setup.
Accumulation in the three months as shown by higher relative volumes in the past
three months is another validation. More demand will push prices higher.
I see this as a long-trade setup. ( I also rely on Buffet buying more OXY ) My preferred
position is a call option expiring in November or December at a strike $30-31 which
if performing well will be held until a couple of weeks before expiration . This idea is
meant to highlight the use of anchored VWAP on high time frame charts to capture the
role of both price and volume in market dynamics and in the determination of zones of
liquidity and volatility so as to provide quality analysis without reliance on multiple
lagging indicators that may neglect any focus on volume and so handicap the trader
seeking to take high quality A+ setups layering in some trade managment tactics to
optimize alpha returns.
Valuation Chart for Exxon Mobil (by The Equty Channel)Average analyst target for Exxon s higher at $127.79. Traders who want to take advantage of this may wait to enter the trade near far value of $83.64. Oil prices hare being negatively impacted by the current economic environment and there could be some near term downside ahead of greater summer demand.
Those looking to invest should know that the longer term outlook for Exxon calls for earnings to experience a -10.74% CAGR over the next 5 years. Pairing that information with my knowledge of the current economic environment it suggests there could be pandemic-like draw down for the energy sector, as the global economy continues to weaken.
Investors should understand that Exxon is anchored to lower prices and wait for better buying opportunities. Tune into the Equity Channel Podcast next week for a discussion of what we may be able to expect in the second half of 2023.
ET Energy Transfer Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the ET Energy Transfer options chain, i would buy the $13 strike price Calls with
2023-4-21 expiration date for about
$0.80 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Marathon Reaches IntermissionWith an overlapping wave structure since its inception, Marathon has seemingly finished Wave 3 of its apparent diagonal wave. With Wave 3 being longer than Wave 1, it should also be expected for Wave 4 to be longer in price length than Wave 2. This makes it very probable for share price to see a 50% shave over the next couple-few years. A drop below the yellow line is nearly mandated currently (unless a new all-time high is secured). Holders should look for the most suitable exit in order to avoid more losses than necessary.
(Wave analysis has been redacted from this marking however, wave-by-wave analysis will be tracked via link in bio).
Why Warren Buffett pours billions of dollars into OXY ?Legendary investor Warren Buffet is pouring billions of dollars into Occidental Petroleum Corporation ! when it rejected heavily from strong and valid down trend line ! why ?
Please note Buffett is a long term investor not a trader !. US market has been in a Bull run in large time frames (Yearly or Monthly) since 1932 therefore, any long term investor who chose fundamentally powerful stock has made a huge profit.
Although I believe Berkshire could have chosen better time and maybe lower price to start buying shares of OXY, I think it will see higher prices in long term in fact, It goes much higher than ATH and will reach to around 180 USD per share or even higher in up coming YEARS.
Now , lets look at what we have in technical point of view:
1. OXY was rejected strongly from valid down trend line in weekly time frame for 4th time . Break out of this heavy down trend line is very important for the stock to go higher.
2. In terms of Elliott waves, similar to many other energy stocks like XOM, COP, SLB and etc , OXY has completed and ascending complete wave cycle from IPO to latest major low (Primary degree waves 1 and 2 on the chart shown by green and red arrows respectively ). It means that impulsive section (Primay degree wave 3) of new wave cycle has been started at last major low around 9 USD. In closer look, currently we are in wave 4 of 1 of primary degree wave 3. Elliott wave labeling on the chart shows internal waves (12345) of wave 1 of primary degree wave 3. It means there is one more leg up ( wave 5 shown on the chart ) to complete wave 1 of primary degree wave 3. Then we will probably have a major correction (wave 2 of 3 ) down to 40-50 level and after completion of correction , wave 3 of 3 which is most profitable and most speedy wave will start. Please note this is most probable scenario and we are not talking about certainty.
3. Beside strong down trend line, there are many strong static resistances on OXY climb road. These Resistances are shown by red horizontal lines on the chart. Therefore, OXY will face difficulties on the way to reach it's target.
One more important note :
As Berkshire owns now around 20 % of company shares and they are long term holders, We can somehow be sure that 20 % of shares of company will be out of future sell pressure in up coming years which is very important note to be considered.
All in all, I believe OXY , like many other energy stocks , offers huge profit for long term investor and traders. However, Is it a right time to open a long position? It depends on personality and risk management and patience of investors/traders. I myself, keep OXY in my watch list and think it can be bought on lower prices as shown by green lines. To me, buying a stock when it is struggling with a strong down trend line is dangerous and as always, I am seeking for a safe trade set up.
I Hope this publication to be useful and wish you all the best.
CEI Camber Energy Price TargetsIf you haven`t bought CEI at $0.59, before it went to $4.85:
Then considering the volume and the fundamentals ( the institutional investor which purchased 10,544 shares of newly designated convertible preferred stock for a purchase price of $100,000,000), you should know that my price targets for CEI are $2.05 and $3.40.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
CEI Camber Energy Price TargetIf you didn`t wanted to buy on my first call, when Blackrock increased ownership in it:
Then you should know that most likely the price will hit the 1.25usd per share for which the institutional investor bought 15Mil worth of CEI Camber Energy stocks.
50 Fib Level for CREGThis 50 fib level for CREG stock has been a pivot for months. No matter if it's broken out or slid lower, this area remains a magnet for the stock. With higher volume recently and a stronger uptrend on 7/19, 50 fib level is once again a point of interest and an important level to watch. Either way, it's come a long distance since it was on the list of penny stocks to watch .
Something to keep in mind, however, is that the company gained approval for the Authorized Share increase from 10m to 100m ( 7/9/2021 8K filing ). That can sometimes mean they need more wiggle room in their share structure to issue more stock. In line with this, it can also mean dilution depending on the inspiration behind the AH increase. At the very least, it's something to keep in the back of your head if you've got CREG on your watch list right now.
MMAT Levels To Watch Right NowNot much happening with major Fib levels for MMAT however, that 200DMA seems to be acting as a potential level of support after falling below the 786 fib line. Meanwhile, there seems to be a level of resistance around $5 that has been the case several times over the last few months. The big question now is will the 200 hold this week?
Also have the SC13 G from last week to keep in mind. Nova Scotia Innovation Corporation (Operating as: Innovacorp) reported a 4.399 % stake in the company. This was an amended 13G and if you look back at the one posted on 7/7, you'll see Innovacorp reported a 6.558 % stake.
Woah G WOGI!WOGI hasn't attempted to test these levels since 2014! TLDR, I'm not gonna go all the way back to 2014 to DD the stock because this is just about identifying potential levels. I drew out the fib retracemtent using more recent lowest lows and the 2014 high and interestingly enough, the 786 fib line lined up with a pretty clear, recent level of resistance that WOGI juuuuuussst broke through. Meanwhile, the $0.11-$0.13 area isn't a "random" sticking point" either. Once again, go back to 2014 where WOGI broke out in a big way last and you'll see that this area was a recognizable pivot (resistance turned support turned resistance).
Now, does this mean it's set to fail again? that is going to be up to the market right now. All I'm doing is pointing out particular areas where there could be some interest to watch more closely than others. since the 618 fib is still a ways away, the fact that 11-13 cents was a previous area of "traffic" is too coincidental not to monitor it now that WOGI is trading at that same level. I think volume will be an important key to dictate the next leg higher or rejection and move lower. We'll see. But again if WOGI is on your list of penny stocks to watch right now, I think these could be interesting areas to monitor.
Management changes, cancellation of share issuance in April & plenty more news on WOGI here: pennystocks.com