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Gold hits record high: Is a reversal coming?📉 Gold Returns to All-Time High: Is a Major Correction on the Horizon? 🔍 Strong Reaction at Historical Highs Gold has returned to its all-time high zone, and as it touched this level, prices have seen a significant reaction, dropping $20 to around $2,770. On the H4 timeframe, candles show strong selling pressure at the highs, signaling a potential deeper correction. As the market opens next week (Monday), there is a high likelihood of a GAP (price gap) forming on smaller timeframes due to the current momentum. 📊 Technical and Fundamental Insights Double Top Formation: Gold shows signs of forming a Double Top pattern at its historical peak. Combined with technical signals, this suggests a possible short-term corrective wave. Crucial News from FED and Trump: Next week, the market anticipates critical updates from the Federal Reserve (FED) regarding interest rate policies. President Trump’s fiscal and monetary policy announcements could also drive significant volatility in gold prices. Low Liquidity Conditions: With many Asian nations entering their Lunar New Year holidays, market liquidity is expected to decline, potentially leading to heightened volatility. 🌟 Price Behavior Analysis Based on insights from DXY, SWAP CHARGE, and FVG analyses: DXY Weakness: While DXY's weakness supports gold, heavy selling pressure near the highs indicates a possible corrective phase. SWAP CHARGE Shifts: The shift from buying to selling suggests that selling pressure is currently dominant, supporting the likelihood of a gold correction. 💡 Key Levels to Watch Next Week Resistance: $2,786 - $2,790: This is the previous all-time high and a critical resistance level. A breakout above this zone could trigger a stronger bullish trend. Support: $2,758 - $2,735 - $2,718 - $2,694: These are the major support zones to monitor in case of a deeper correction. 📢 Conclusion: Given the current dynamics, gold appears poised for a potential correction after testing its all-time highs. This aligns with technical signals and fundamental developments. Traders should closely monitor key levels and upcoming announcements from the FED and President Trump to stay ahead of market movements. 👉 Follow KevinNguyen-SimpleTrade for more in-depth analysis and market updates! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KevinNguyen-SimpleTrade
Nov.26-Dec.02(ETH)Weekly market recapSince last week, the market has entered its favorable seasonal period, typically characterized by heightened optimism due to holidays such as Thanksgiving and Christmas. The nomination of Bessen as Treasury Secretary, who advocates for deregulation, a reduction in national debt issuance and deficits, and support for cryptocurrencies, has further bolstered market sentiment. However, the inflation risks stemming from Trump's high tariff policies remain the primary concern for the market, as they diminish the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates over the next 25 years. The PCE released on November 27 reached 2.8%, showing no signs of slowing down for six months, which has heightened concerns about re-inflation. Consequently, this week's non-farm payroll numbers and unemployment rate will be closely monitored; if the non-farm data significantly exceeds 200,000, it could intensify market fears regarding a pause in interest rate cuts. Recently, the U.S. government plans to sell $2 billion worth of BTC, which may exert some selling pressure on the market. Additionally, data indicates that BTC's market share has declined from 60% a month ago to below 57%, approaching a multi-year support line, while ETH's market share has similarly dropped to 12.9%. These macroeconomic and external factors will undoubtedly impact the cryptocurrency market. After rising to around $3,700 last week, ETH has been experiencing some volatility. The WTA indicator shows a disappearance of the blue bars representing whales, indicating a gradual reduction in large capital inflows. Meanwhile, the purple wave area on the ME indicator is widening, suggesting a strengthening of bullish sentiment. In summary, we believe that ETH may continue to fluctuate this week, and it is essential to be mindful of the risks associated with price volatility. We have adjusted the resistance level to 3,800 and the support level to 3,200. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
1
Nov.26-Dec.02(BTC)Weekly market recapSince last week, the market has entered its favorable seasonal period, typically characterized by heightened optimism due to holidays such as Thanksgiving and Christmas. The nomination of Bessen as Treasury Secretary, who advocates for deregulation, a reduction in national debt issuance and deficits, and support for cryptocurrencies, has further bolstered market sentiment. However, the inflation risks stemming from Trump's high tariff policies remain the primary concern for the market, as they diminish the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates over the next 25 years. The PCE released on November 27 reached 2.8%, showing no signs of slowing down for six months, which has heightened concerns about re-inflation. Consequently, this week's non-farm payroll numbers and unemployment rate will be closely monitored; if the non-farm data significantly exceeds 200,000, it could intensify market fears regarding a pause in interest rate cuts. Recently, the U.S. government plans to sell $2 billion worth of BTC, which may exert some selling pressure on the market. Additionally, data indicates that BTC's market share has declined from 60% a month ago to below 57%, approaching a multi-year support line, while ETH's market share has similarly dropped to 12.9%. These macroeconomic and external factors will undoubtedly impact the cryptocurrency market. Last week, BTC exhibited a trend of wide fluctuations at high levels, with significant price volatility. The WTA indicator shows the disappearance of the blue bars representing whales, indicating a gradual decrease in large capital inflows. The ME indicator remains within the purple wave area, maintaining a bullish trend. In summary, we believe BTC may continue to experience volatility, and caution should be exercised regarding price fluctuation risks. We have adjusted the resistance level to 100,000 and the support level to 90,000. Disclaimer: Nothing in this script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively outlines market conditions and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any cryptocurrency. Any decisions made based on the information contained in this script are solely your responsibility. Any investments made or to be made should be independently analyzed based on your financial situation and objectives.Since last week, the market has entered its favorable seasonal period, typically characterized by heightened optimism due to holidays such as Thanksgiving and Christmas. The nomination of Bessen as Treasury Secretary, who advocates for deregulation, a reduction in national debt issuance and deficits, and support for cryptocurrencies, has further bolstered market sentiment. However, the inflation risks stemming from Trump's high tariff policies remain the primary concern for the market, as they diminish the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates over the next 25 years. The PCE released on November 27 reached 2.8%, showing no signs of slowing down for six months, which has heightened concerns about re-inflation. Consequently, this week's non-farm payroll numbers and unemployment rate will be closely monitored; if the non-farm data significantly exceeds 200,000, it could intensify market fears regarding a pause in interest rate cuts. Recently, the U.S. government plans to sell $2 billion worth of BTC, which may exert some selling pressure on the market. Additionally, data indicates that BTC's market share has declined from 60% a month ago to below 57%, approaching a multi-year support line, while ETH's market share has similarly dropped to 12.9%. These macroeconomic and external factors will undoubtedly impact the cryptocurrency market. Last week, BTC exhibited a trend of wide fluctuations at high levels, with significant price volatility. The WTA indicator shows the disappearance of the blue bars representing whales, indicating a gradual decrease in large capital inflows. The ME indicator remains within the purple wave area, maintaining a bullish trend. In summary, we believe BTC may continue to experience volatility, and caution should be exercised regarding price fluctuation risks. We have adjusted the resistance level to 100,000 and the support level to 90,000. Disclaimer: Nothing in this script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively outlines market conditions and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any cryptocurrency. Any decisions made based on the information contained in this script are solely your responsibility. Any investments made or to be made should be independently analyzed based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
1
Nov.05-Nov.11(ETH)Weekly market recapLast week, Trump defeated Democratic candidate Harris on Wednesday to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, following his promises of several supportive cryptocurrency initiatives that are expected to materialize. These include the dismissal of the Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the establishment of a strategic BTC reserve to hold digital currencies obtained from assets seized from financial criminals by the federal government, and the promotion of the U.S. BTC mining industry, with the hope that the remaining global BTC will be mined in the United States. Currently, the U.S. is in a rate-cutting cycle, with a reduction already implemented on November 8, and another expected this year. As long as the CPI data on November 13 does not exceed expectations, the likelihood of further rate cuts is significant. Last week, there was a substantial net inflow into ETH ETFs, indicating that following Trump's victory, the favorable monetary policy has sparked optimism and speculative behavior among investors, leading to a significant influx of capital into the cryptocurrency market. Given the current landscape, the cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory environment, the substantial inflow of funds into ETH ETFs, and the macroeconomic benefits of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are all catalysts for ETH's rise last week and its potential future increases. Under the leadership of BTC, ETH exhibited a one-sided upward trend last week, with the increase nearly compensating for the decline experienced since July of this year. The WTA indicator has shown blue bars, indicative of whale activity, suggesting significant capital inflow. Meanwhile, the orange wave area of the ME indicator is rapidly tightening, signaling a weakening of bearish sentiment. In summary, we anticipate that ETH may rise this week, although caution is warranted regarding potential pullbacks. We have adjusted the resistance level to 3400 and the support level to 3000. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Sypool
Nov.05-Nov.11(BTC)Weekly market recapLast week, Trump defeated Democratic candidate Harris on Wednesday to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, following his promises of several supportive cryptocurrency initiatives that are expected to materialize. These include the dismissal of the Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the establishment of a strategic BTC reserve to hold digital currencies obtained from assets seized from financial criminals by the federal government, and the promotion of the U.S. BTC mining industry, with the hope that the remaining global BTC will be mined in the United States. Currently, the U.S. is in a rate-cutting cycle, with a reduction already implemented on November 8, and another expected this year. As long as the CPI data on November 13 does not exceed expectations, the likelihood of further rate cuts is significant. Last week, there was a substantial net inflow into BTC ETFs, indicating that following Trump's victory, the favorable monetary policy has sparked optimism and speculative behavior among investors, leading to a significant influx of capital into the cryptocurrency market. Given the current landscape, the cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory environment, the substantial inflow of funds into BTC ETFs, and the macroeconomic benefits of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are all catalysts for BTC's rise last week and its potential future increases. BTC exhibited a one-sided upward trend last week, continuously reaching new highs near $90,000. The WTA indicator shows the appearance of blue bars representing whales. This macro shift is beginning to attract large capital. The purple wave area on the ME indicator is widening, indicating strengthening bullish sentiment. In summary, we believe BTC may rise this week, but caution is warranted regarding potential pullbacks. We have adjusted the resistance level to $90,000 and the support level to $79,000. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sypool
Oct.29-Nov.04(ETH)Weekly market recapLast Friday, the non-farm payroll data fell significantly short of expectations, leading to a substantial increase in interest rate cut anticipations. The price of ETH surged before retreating, with the majority of traders attributing the disappointing data to the impact of the hurricane, as the market response was less than favorable. Currently, the differing expectations regarding monetary policy and future inflation between the two candidates in the U.S. election make the election outcome pivotal for the mid-term trajectory of BTC, while also impacting the price of ETH. Should Trump be elected, the promised favorable policies may come to fruition, increasing the likelihood of institutional investments in BTC, thereby enhancing its fundamentals as digital gold. Conversely, if Harris takes office, the SEC is expected to maintain its stringent stance on cryptocurrency regulations. Last week, ETH experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, but the overall fluctuations were minimal, remaining within a consolidation range without any significant trend. The WTA indicator showed blue bars representing whales, which disappeared after Saturday, indicating a withdrawal of substantial capital. The ME indicator continues to reflect a bearish trend. In summary, we anticipate that ETH may continue to oscillate this week. We maintain our previous resistance level at 2800 and support level at 2200. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
1
Oct.29-Nov.04(BTC)Weekly market recapLast Friday, the non-farm payroll data fell significantly short of expectations, leading to a substantial increase in interest rate cut anticipations. The price of BTC surged before retreating, with the majority of traders attributing the disappointing data to the impact of the hurricane, as the market response was less than favorable. Currently, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is pivotal for the mid-term trajectory of BTC, given the differing monetary policy and inflation outlooks of the two candidates. Should Trump be elected, the promised favorable policies may come to fruition, increasing the likelihood of institutional investments in BTC, thereby enhancing its fundamentals as digital gold. Conversely, if Harris takes office, the SEC is expected to maintain its stringent stance on cryptocurrency regulations. Last week, BTC experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, breaking through the resistance level to reach $73,590 on Tuesday. The WTA indicator showed the emergence of blue bars representing whales, but these disappeared after Saturday, indicating a withdrawal of significant capital. The ME indicator remains in a bullish trend. In summary, we anticipate that BTC may experience considerable volatility this week. We have adjusted the resistance level to $74,000 and the support level to $67,000. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
1
Oct.22-Oct.28(BTC)Weekly market recapThe recent initiation of a new round of interest rate cuts by major Western central banks, coupled with China's extensive monetary and fiscal stimulus, may serve as key catalysts for the recent surge in Bitcoin (BTC) prices. Additionally, the continued significant net inflow into BTC exchange-traded products (ETPs) indicates a persistent influx of traditional capital into the cryptocurrency market, reflecting confidence and optimism among investors. As the U.S. elections approach, the high-profile campaign of Republican candidate Donald Trump, who is supportive of cryptocurrencies, has bolstered market confidence in his potential victory, with the probability of his success soaring to 66.3%. This factor may also play a role, although caution is warranted regarding the risk of a market correction following the election. Last week, BTC fluctuated near resistance levels and broke through to $71,000 during the early and late hours in the U.S. market yesterday. The WTA indicator shows the emergence of blue bars representing whale activity, suggesting that macroeconomic shifts are beginning to attract substantial capital. The purple wave area on the ME indicator is widening, indicating a strengthening bullish sentiment. In summary, we believe BTC may continue to rise this week. We have adjusted the resistance level to $72,000 and the support level to $65,000. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Oct.15-Oct.21(ETH)Weekly market recapThe CME interest rate swap market predicts that the FOMC will likely cut rates by 25 basis points in November. This means that after a 50 basis point cut, the Federal Reserve will loosen its monetary policy. This is not favorable for risk assets, including BTC. In the past two weeks, BTC ETFs have seen significant net inflows, indicating that after the shift in monetary policy, funds are gradually flowing into the cryptocurrency market. This is a large-scale trend. BTC is rapidly approaching its all-time high (ATH). However, the pricing in the interest rate market for a November rate cut may lead to some degree of correction for BTC. Additionally, the U.S. presidential election will take place in early November. While Harris has expressed support for cryptocurrencies, Trump is undoubtedly the biggest supporter for the sector. The importance of the U.S. election for BTC is increasing. Led by BTC, ETH rose last week, but the overall increase was not strong, and Monday’s pullback has covered most of the gains. The WTA indicator shows blue bars representing whales. However, the ME indicator is still in a bearish trend. In summary, we believe ETH may experience a decline this week. We maintain the original resistance level at 2800 and raise the support level to 2200. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Oct.8-Oct.14(ETH)Weekly market recapLast week, the U.S. CPI data for September was released. Although the CPI figure was higher than expected, it was still lower than the previous value. We believe that once the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, as long as the CPI data does not significantly deviate from expectations, the market will not price in a recession or an inflation rebound. It will generally lead to a positive outcome. After going through an aggressive rate-hike cycle and entering a rate-cutting cycle, capital will no longer need to worry about changes in liquidity. In the early stages of rate cuts, investors will need to consider which market to enter to achieve high returns. We observed the performance of the Chinese stock market at the end of September, and yesterday, the BTC ETF saw an inflow of over $500 million, the largest inflow in the past three months. Capital is starting to flow back into the cryptocurrency market, and this continuous inflow is providing price support. ETH, which had been relatively underperforming, also saw a certain level of pump yesterday, with the price nearing previous highs. However, from the ME indicator, it can still be seen that short positions are dominating ETH. The WTA indicator shows no signs of whale activity. In summary, we believe ETH is likely to experience a week of consolidation. We maintain the previous resistance level of 2,800 and support level of 2,100. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Oct.8-Oct.14(BTC)Weekly market recapLast week, the U.S. CPI data for September was released. Although the CPI figure was higher than expected, it was still lower than the previous value. We believe that once the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, as long as the CPI data does not deviate significantly from expectations, the market will not price in a recession or an inflation rebound. It will generally be a positive outcome. After experiencing an aggressive rate-hike cycle, moving into a rate-cutting cycle means that capital will no longer need to worry about liquidity changes. At the early stages of rate cuts, investors will need to think about which markets to enter to achieve high returns. We have observed the performance of the Chinese stock market at the end of September, and yesterday, the BTC ETF saw an inflow of over $500 million, marking the largest inflow in the past three months. Capital is beginning to return to the cryptocurrency market, and the continuous inflow of funds is providing support to prices. BTC began rebounding last week and climbed above 65,000 yesterday, nearing recent highs. On a larger scale, it remains within the previous consolidation range. Therefore, the ME indicator does not give a clear signal and still shows a consolidation trend. From the WTA indicator, we see that large whales have not participated in the recent rebound. In summary, we believe the probability of BTC moving upward is greater than downward. We maintain the previous resistance levels of 68,000 and support levels of 52,500. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Oct.1-Oct.7(ETH)Weekly market recapAfter the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the Asia-Pacific markets, especially the Chinese stock market, experienced a strong rebound. On one hand, following U.S. restrictions on China in the import and export sectors, the Chinese stock market has underperformed relative to the Nikkei and the Mumbai Index. On the other hand, the Chinese government recently announced a reduction in the bank reserve requirement ratio to enhance the competitiveness of the Chinese market following the U.S. rate cut. Although increased liquidity in the Chinese market benefits various assets, the U.S. market still dominates cryptocurrency trading, and the Chinese market has a certain degree of closure. Therefore, the performance of the Chinese stock market does not impact the cryptocurrency market, as evidenced by the stable performance of BTC ETFs recently. Last Friday's non-farm payroll data did not show significant deviations, so the market will not conclude that we are entering a recession or recovering from inflation; rather, the economy remains under the control of the Federal Reserve. The CPI data to be released this week will further confirm this. If the CPI data does not significantly deviate from expectations, the market will still be driven by bullish sentiment. Compared to BTC's bearishness, ETH is stronger. Thus, ETH experienced a larger decline last week and has had a weak rebound. According to the ME indicator, there is a possibility for further expansion of the yellow bearish zone. Similar to BTC, whale participation in ETH was low last week. In summary, we believe that ETH may oscillate this week, with the likelihood of a decline greater than that of an increase. We maintain our original resistance level at 2,800 and support level at 2,100. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Oct.1-Oct.7(BTC)Weekly market recapAfter the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the Asia-Pacific markets, especially the Chinese stock market, experienced a strong rebound. On one hand, due to U.S. restrictions on China in the import and export sector, the Chinese stock market has underperformed relative to the Nikkei and the Mumbai Index. On the other hand, the Chinese government recently announced a reduction in the bank reserve requirement ratio to enhance market competitiveness following the U.S. rate cut. Although increased liquidity in the Chinese market benefits various assets, the U.S. market still dominates in cryptocurrency trading, and the Chinese market has a certain degree of closure. Therefore, the performance of the Chinese stock market will not impact the cryptocurrency market. This can also be seen in the stable performance of BTC ETFs recently. Last Friday's non-farm payroll data did not show significant deviations, so the market will not conclude that we are entering a recession or recovering from inflation; instead, the economy remains under the control of the Federal Reserve. The CPI data to be released this week will further confirm this. If the CPI data does not significantly deviate from expectations, the market will still be driven by bullish sentiment. BTC retraced after reaching 66,000 and has slightly rebounded this week, remaining within its previous trading range. According to the WTA indicator, whales have not taken action over the past week, with the blue bars representing whales and trading volume maintaining average levels. The ME indicator has switched back to a purple bullish trend, and the frequent switching indicates that we are currently in a consolidation trend. In summary, we believe that BTC may continue to oscillate this week, with the potential for an increase greater than that for a decrease. We maintain our original resistance level at 68,000 and support level at 62,500. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
1
Sep.17-Sep.23(ETH)Weekly market recapLast week, the Federal Reserve kicked off the rate-cutting era with a hawkish 50 basis point cut. Although the CME had previously predicted a high probability of a 50bp rate cut, the fact that only one committee member voted for a 25bp cut while all others opted for 50bp was beyond market expectations. Following the announcement, almost all financial assets, except for the U.S. dollar, showed bullish trends. After the rate cut, the value of the U.S. dollar will decrease, which will make stablecoins in the crypto industry more sensitive. They will either hold BTC to mitigate the impact of dollar depreciation or opt to hold other financial assets. Therefore, we anticipate that market volatility will significantly increase in the future. Last week, BTC ETFs experienced net inflows for a period, but as the rate cut event cooled down, traditional capital inflows gradually declined. The ETH ETFs performed even more sluggishly, showing significant net outflows as of yesterday. If traditional funds fail to continue flowing into the market, it could lead to capital outflows within the market. ETH's performance last week was slightly stronger than BTC. However, as the ME indicator reflects, bearish forces are stronger on a larger scale. Similarly, the WTA indicator does not show any significant blue bars. ETH's rise last week seems more like a catch-up rally driven by BTC's increase. In summary, we believe ETH may remain in a consolidation phase this week, with a higher probability of an upward trend than a downward one. We raise the resistance level to 2,800 and maintain the previous support level at 2,100. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Sep.17-Sep.23(BTC)Weekly market recapLast week, the Federal Reserve kicked off the rate-cutting era with a hawkish 50 basis point cut. Although the CME had previously predicted a high probability of a 50bp rate cut, the fact that only one committee member voted for a 25bp cut while all others opted for 50bp was beyond market expectations. Following the announcement, almost all financial assets, except for the U.S. dollar, showed bullish trends. After the rate cut, the value of the U.S. dollar will decrease, which will make stablecoins in the crypto industry more sensitive. They will either hold BTC to mitigate the impact of dollar depreciation or opt to hold other financial assets. Therefore, we anticipate that market volatility will significantly increase in the future. Last week, BTC ETFs experienced net inflows for a period, but as the rate cut event cooled down, traditional capital inflows gradually declined. The ETH ETFs performed even more sluggishly, showing significant net outflows as of yesterday. If traditional funds fail to continue flowing into the market, it could lead to capital outflows within the market. BTC saw further rebound last week, with the price breaking through the established support level. However, last week's trading volume was not significant. This can also be seen in the WTA indicator, where the blue bars representing whale activity are sparse. The ME indicator maintained a bearish signal, but the continuous rise is gradually narrowing the yellow zone. In conclusion, we believe that BTC may fluctuate this week, with a higher likelihood of an upward trend than a downward one. We raise the support level to 68,000 and maintain the resistance level at 52,500. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Sep.3-Sep.9(ETH)Weekly market recapLast Friday, employment data was released, showing that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%. Although non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased, they still fell short of expectations. BTC initially rose upon the release of the data but quickly reversed course and turned negative. The U.S. stock market also opened lower, signaling that as the labor market weakens, funds in risk assets are starting to avoid risk. Over the past week, BTC ETF daily fund flows were mostly net outflows, while ETH ETFs saw little significant movement. This reflects the current tight financial environment and increasing risk aversion. This situation may persist until looser monetary policies are implemented and more liquidity is available. ETH experienced further declines last week, giving back all of its 2024 gains and returning to the consolidation range seen at the end of 2023. Trading volume was below the historical average. According to the WTA indicator, whale activity was minimal following Friday's drop, and participation levels across all categories have been decreasing. The ME indicator continues to show a bearish trend, with short positions strengthening. In conclusion, we expect ETH to maintain a bearish trend this week. We are lowering the resistance level 2400 and the support level 2100. ETH experienced further declines last week, giving back all of its 2024 gains and returning to the consolidation range seen at the end of 2023. Trading volume was below the historical average. According to the WTA indicator, whale activity was minimal following Friday's drop, and participation levels across all categories have been decreasing. The ME indicator continues to show a bearish trend, with short positions strengthening. In conclusion, we expect ETH to maintain a bearish trend this week. We are lowering the resistance level to 2400 and the support level to 2100.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Sep.3-Sep.9(BTC)Weekly market recapLast Friday, employment data was released, showing that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%. Although non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased, they still fell short of expectations. BTC initially rose upon the release of the data but quickly reversed course and turned negative. The U.S. stock market also opened lower, signaling that as the labor market weakens, funds in risk assets are starting to avoid risk. Over the past week, BTC ETF daily fund flows were mostly net outflows, while ETH ETFs saw little significant movement. This reflects the current tight financial environment and increasing risk aversion. This situation may persist until looser monetary policies are implemented and more liquidity is available. Before last Friday, BTC dropped, hitting a support level and then rebounding. Overall trading volume remained consistent with previous periods. However, based on the WTA indicator, whale participation was low. The ME indicator maintained a bearish trend, with the yellow zone continuing to expand. In conclusion, we believe BTC may remain volatile this week. We maintain the original resistance level 62000 and the support level 52500. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Aug.27-Sep.2(ETH)Weekly market recapBTC volatility decreased after BTC gave back the gains from the Jackhole meeting. Currently, the number of stablecoins in the market continues to grow, getting closer to ATH, but there are few market hot spots except memes. After the staking storm passed, we saw the meme rise again. Whether it is Pump.fun on Solana earlier or Sun.pump that appeared on Tron recently, we can see that both large and small entities have turned their attention to memes. Four.meme backed by Binance also began to develop on the BSC chain, trying to capture the popularity after the release of CZ. For the crypto market, except for emergencies, market volatility suffocates any trader, and people can only grow their wealth through memes. The market only transfers wealth and does not create value. Risk assets have fully priced in a September rate cut, and even if there is some difference in value, monetary policy is unlikely to bring additional volatility. This Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the latest NFP data. Unless there is a significant deviation from expectations, risk assets will maintain their trend. Beyond that, the cryptocurrency’s performance relative to NDX remains affected by ETF flows. The volatility of ETH last week was greater than that of BTC, but the overall volatility remained volatile. Trading volume is sluggish. The indicators are consistent with the reaction of BTC. No whales have participated in the past seven days of trading, and the ME indicator maintains a bearish trend. To sum up, we believe that ETH is weaker than BTC. This is also reflected in the capital flows of the ETH ETF. We maintain our original resistance level 2800 and support level 2400. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Aug.27-Sep.2(BTC)Weekly market recapBTC volatility decreased after BTC gave back the gains from the Jackhole meeting. Currently, the number of stablecoins in the market continues to grow, getting closer to ATH, but there are few market hot spots except memes. After the staking storm passed, we saw the meme rise again. Whether it is Pump.fun on Solana earlier or Sun.pump that appeared on Tron recently, we can see that both large and small entities have turned their attention to memes. Four.meme backed by Binance also began to develop on the BSC chain, trying to capture the popularity after the release of CZ. For the crypto market, except for emergencies, market volatility suffocates any trader, and people can only grow their wealth through memes. The market only transfers wealth and does not create value. Risk assets have fully priced in a September rate cut, and even if there is some difference in value, monetary policy is unlikely to bring additional volatility. This Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the latest NFP data. Unless there is a significant deviation from expectations, risk assets will maintain their trend. Beyond that, the cryptocurrency’s performance relative to NDX remains affected by ETF flows. Although BTC saw a significant decline on Sunday, the long green candle yesterdays repaired the losses. BTC maintains low volatility most of the time. Judging from the WTA indicator, the blue column representing the whale has not participated in transactions in the past week. Like trading volume, WTA also reflects market downturns. The ME indicator maintains the bearish trend. To sum up, we believe that the recent performance of BTC will still be dominated by fluctuation. In the short term, it will be determined by the capital flow of BTC ETF, and in the medium term, it will be determined by the amount of funds released after the monetary policy turns to loosening. We maintain last week’s resistance level 62000 and support level 52500.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Aug.13-Aug.19(ETH)Weekly market recapLast week, the U.S. Department of Labor released CPI data for July, which was slightly better than expected. Afterwards, U.S. stocks started an upward trend that lasted for a week, and gold recently refreshed its ATH, further pricing in interest rate cuts. The performance of crypto market has been weaker than other markets, with BTC and ETH almost at the same price level as a week ago. On Friday, Powell will speak at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole. The market has basically acquiesced that interest rates will be cut in September. The point of disagreement is whether to cut interest rates by 25 bp or 50 bp. Cash-flows to the BTC ETF and ETH ETF have been subdued over the past seven days. This is in contrast to the US stock market. It seems that the enthusiasm of traditional funds for crypto is gradually declining. This also reflects that funds may be flowing to other assets. Unlike BTC, ETH performed more weakly last week. Still in a downward trend overall. There was barely any rebound from the bulls, with trading volume significantly below past averages. The ME indicator maintains the bearish trend and the yellow wavy area widens further. On the WTA indicator, like BTC, there is no blue column representing whales. To sum up, we believe that ETH may remain volatile this week, with the downside probability being greater than the upside. We maintain our original resistance level of 2800 and support level of 2400. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Aug.13-Aug.19(BTC)Weekly market recapLast week, the U.S. Department of Labor released CPI data for July, which was slightly better than expected. Afterwards, U.S. stocks started an upward trend that lasted for a week, and gold recently refreshed its ATH, further pricing in interest rate cuts. The performance of crypto market has been weaker than other markets, with BTC and ETH almost at the same price level as a week ago. On Friday, Powell will speak at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole. The market has basically acquiesced that interest rates will be cut in September. The point of disagreement is whether to cut interest rates by 25 bp or 50 bp. Cash-flows to the BTC ETF and ETH ETF have been subdued over the past seven days. This is in contrast to the US stock market. It seems that the enthusiasm of traditional funds for crypto is gradually declining. This also reflects that funds may be flowing to other assets. As we predicted last week, BTC remains fluctuating, with the price remaining the same as it was 7 days ago. The strength of the bears has diminished but the strength of the bulls has not increased. Both bulls and bears are waiting for new trend confirmation. So all indicators are calm. The blue columns representing whales does not appear on the WTA indicator. The ME indicator shows a slight bearish trend due to long-term fluctuations. In summary, we believe that BTC will continue to remain fluctuating this week, and volatility may increase on Friday. We maintain our original resistance level 62000 and support level 52500. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Aug.6-Aug.12(ETH)Weekly market recapCrypto market lose power after rebound. BTC had a significant decline for a period of time after the ETF was announced. But after 15 days, sufficient liquidity brought an increase that repaired the decline. It has been two weeks since the ETH ETF was listed. After excluding the impact of grayscale, we have seen that traditional funds are also flowing into the ETH ETF. CPI data for July will be released on Wednesday. We believe that if CPI falls further, it will give risk assets such as BTC and US stocks an upward momentum. We do not believe that the recession started on August 2, when the employment data was released. Therefore, if the CPI data falls further, the market will not panic about recession, and will price further interest rate cuts. We believe that a large amount of spot ETH being staked will increase volatility. When ETH is dumped, the volatility does amplify, but it is far less than other tokens during the rebound. This is not a good phenomenon. As we mentioned above, the ETH ETF has been listed for two weeks, and there is every reason to believe that the sell the news phenomenon is over. The bulls' performance has been disappointing. Like BTC, we saw the emergence of whales when ETH dumped. The whale disappears after a day and does not continue to participate in trading. Judging from the ME indicator, ETH has entered a bearish trend, and the wavy area has further widened. To sum up, we believe that ETH will remain fluctuating this week, and the probability of falling is greater than rising. We maintain our original resistance level 2800 and support level 2400. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Aug.6-Aug.12(BTC)Weekly market recapCrypto market lose power after rebound. BTC had a significant decline for a period of time after the ETF was announced. But after 15 days, sufficient liquidity brought an increase that repaired the decline. It has been two weeks since the ETH ETF was listed. After excluding the impact of grayscale, we have seen that traditional funds are also flowing into the ETH ETF. CPI data for July will be released on Wednesday. We believe that if CPI falls further, it will give risk assets such as BTC and US stocks an upward momentum. We do not believe that the recession started on August 2, when the employment data was released. Therefore, if the CPI data falls further, the market will not panic about recession, and will price further interest rate cuts. BTC rebounded last week, with bulls beginning to fade after hitting 62000. Although we question the idea of a recession. But the earlier dump really broke the calm. At larger levels, the power of bears has increased. Judging from the indicators, a large number of whales participated in the transaction of BTC after the dump, which is also the main reason for the price increase. However, after the weekend, the whales gradually disappeared. On the ME indicator, the long-term fluctuation narrowed the wavy area. Currently under a bearish signal. In summary, we believe that if the CPI data is within expectations, BTC may fluctuate this week. We raise the resistance level 62000 and maintain the original support level 52500. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool