ENPHASE ENERGY (ENPH) Short Play: Bearish Momentum Building!Technical Analysis:
Enphase Energy (ENPH) on the 15-minute timeframe signals a solid short trade setup. The price is moving steadily below the Risological dotted trendline, showing sustained bearish pressure with room for the price to descend further.
Key Levels:
Entry: 78.13
Stop Loss (SL): 85.38
Target 1 (TP1): 69.18
Target 2 (TP2): 54.69
Target 3 (TP3): 40.20
Target 4 (TP4): 31.2
5
Observations:
The price is consolidating near the entry, showing potential to test the lower targets.
The Risological dotted trendline continues to act as overhead resistance, indicating a strong bearish outlook.
Enphase Energy is positioned for a potential decline with all targets set. Traders should watch for a breakdown below TP1 to confirm continued bearish momentum and aim for deeper targets!
Enphase
The Invesco Solar Etf TAN based on the Global Solar Energy IndexThe Invesco Solar ETF is based on the MAC Global Solar Energy Index (Index). The Index is comprised of companies in the solar energy industry.
Wall Street investors have only short-sold the future of the planet! They have shorted all the players that could be a solution to climate change (personal opinion).
With the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, I expect that new financial promises will be put forward, and this ETF will regain strength.
TAN etf, ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT $1.32B
ICLN etf, ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT$2.54B
TAN: Enphase, First Solar, SolarEdge, Sunrun, GCL Tech, Xinyi, Hannon Armstrong, Array, ...
ICLN: First Solar, Vestas, Enphase, China Yangtze, Orste, EDP Portugal, SolarEdge, Suzlon, ...
ENPH Short In Progress*Posting this a couple months late since I've been more preoccupied with Crypto
Saw a lot of people calling for $400s in August since price looked to be finding a bottom around $150, but felt the rate environment and overall outlook for S&P would make this nearly impossible to happen. Took a contrary position due to believing price should be around pre-covid levels, and it has been working quite effectively.
Potential bounce soon back to $96, from where I can see price revisiting $33 or $18 worst-case.
Let me know how you feel about ENPH.
Enphase EnergyThis is a chart of Enphase Energy (ENPH). For those who are not familiar with the company, Enphase Energy develops and manufactures microinverter systems for the solar photovoltaic industry. They are one of the preeminent companies in solar power. Recently, price gapped up on the daily chart following news that Congress would pass legislation to fund sustainable infrastructure projects.
In the above chart, each candlestick represents a 6-month period. Analyzing higher timeframes can often help us determine trend reversals long before they happen. This higher timeframe chart reveals a very peculiar candlestick pattern: the sneaky bearish tri-star pattern. This pattern occurs when three Doji candlesticks form after a bull run. This pattern can warn that a major reversal is coming. See below image.
A bearish tri-star pattern is an insidious topping pattern that Wall Street smart money would love for you to not know about. In short, it appears because Wyckoff distribution is occurring underneath the surface.
While I cannot describe the entirety of Wyckoff distribution in this post, I can say that, in short, Wyckoff distribution is when smart money gradually distributes or sells their shares near the top. The gradual nature of the selloff traps the unsuspecting "weak hands" (mostly small retail traders) who buy while unaware that the bull run is in its final phase. Sometimes, since smart money is especially manipulative, they manufacture a sudden upthrust in price near the end of the Wyckoff distribution, which may be what's happening right now.
This sudden upthrust (UT or UTAD) is a price move above resistance that quickly reverses and closes lower. The upthrust is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap: It appears to signal the resumption of the bull run but in reality, is intended to trick uninformed breakout traders. A UT or UTAD allows Wall Street smart money to mislead the public about the future trend direction and, subsequently, sell additional shares at elevated prices to breakout traders before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move.
In my years of trading experience I have seen the above chart many times before, and the result is almost always the same. This chart is in the phase that some of us traders call a "fake out". A fake out occurs when price appears to be breaking out when actually it is just forming an upper wick. This occurs when price has been moving within an ascending wedge and after bearish divergence has occurred on the RSI. The final phase is when the RSI breaks out after bearish divergence and while in overbought territory. Price then pulls back down strongly and a long upper wick forms on the candlestick. In essence, this is just another way of visualizing the upthrust phase of Wyckoff distribution. The final RSI breakout is the UTAD of Wyckoff distribution.
Here's another Trading View user who is apparently seeing the same thing as I am, though this post is from before the current upthrust:
Also worth mentioning is that it is interesting that corporate insiders have been only selling their positions and there has been no reported insider buying for nearly a year (see below). This is not usually predictive of future price action, but it can give a general sense of sentiment among insiders at a company.
So it's worth watching to see if ENPH will reverse downward. Perhaps it will blast through this level and my analysis prove wrong. As a trader, you must always be willing to accept when you're wrong because your money is more important than your ego. With that said, just remember this is a long-term chart and price may continue moving up before reversing down. Some related charts, including the charts of ETFs that hold ENPH and the ENPH/SPY relative chart, suggest that ENPH does have the momentum necessary to break out to the upside. It's just looking very suspicious right now.
This post is not making a short call on ENPH, it is just an observation. It is not financial advice. Although I may choose to open a position, at the time of writing this, I have neither a long nor a short position open on ENPH. This is an objective, non-biased analysis.
I'll be keeping an investigative eye on this chart.
Enphase Ready For A 25% Move?
Looking at a weekly chart for ENPH it appears that prices is currently attempting a brake of its down trend since December of last Year.
Currently price has been consolidating a sideways range that inevitably will brake one way or the other.
IF the market is TRUELY bullish we would expect this trend to brake and price to rise to the top of the value area and redistribute.
IF price fails to brake trend and continues to reject a continuation to the down side should be expected.
As the market has already seen some very nice price rises in recent months a rejection may be more likely followed by a continuation to the down side.
Trade Well....
ENPH basing for a move towards the consolidation range above?ENPH has broken out of a downwards channel, retested it, formed a series of higher highs and higher lows and is currently basing above rising 10 and 20 MA's at a flattening 50 MA.
This bullish price action, combined with the volume analysis indicates that there is a high probability for price to revisit the higher consolidation range to retest the well established resistance level al 230.50 ish.
All info is on the chart.
NQdecipher
Enphase LONGHello fellas!
Curious about Enphase at these levels. A lot of steam has been blown away from the highs last year, and we are closing the fibonacci level of 61,8 which to me is veeery intriguing. Daily MACD seems to be also recovering from the lows, supporting the thesis for long position. Daily 100EMA is also supporting the price action.
I set the stop loss at exact 200 USD, with a risk/reward of 5. A lot of great potential here!
Thanks for reading, have a great day!
Enphase Energy Analysis 18.11.2022Welcome to the BasicTrading channel.
My name is Philip and in todays analysis I quickly go over the situation which we currently have on Nas100 .
I will analyse the asset both from a weekly and daily timeframe to show you the best possible trading opportunities.
If you enjoyed this analysis, let me know in the comment section which asset I should analyse tomorrow.
I will personally reply to every single comment.
Dont forget to smash that rocket and I will see you tomorrow with a new analysis.
9/11/22 ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ENPH )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Current Price: $305.70
Breakout price trigger: $309.30
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $296.25-$264.35
Price Target: $419.30-$446.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 223-230d
Contract of Interest: $ENPH 2/17/23 340c
Trade price as of publish date: $40.50/contract
$ENPH Reversal Point - Contacted Monthly DemandNASDAQ:ENPH
ENPH has contacted Monthly Demand and is in line with the Monthly Demand that the S&P 500 has contacted.
There are several stocks that are currently aligned with the Monthly Demand of the S&P 500 ** See my profile for more stock scenarios**
As we reach PEAK FEAR in the markets, we are liking to have reached a bottom on the S&P 500
ENPH looks bullish using Aspen Trading S/R LevelsAspen Trading S/R Levels are predicting bullish trend for ENPH if it breaks above 238.
They already did an excellent job by identifying the support @ 143.
Please like, share and follow if you agree with the analysis.
Note - Aspen Trading S/R levels are invite only. They can be accessed through my profile information.
10/31/21 ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ENPH )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Current Price: $231.63
Breakout price trigger: $222.50 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $225.00-$201.50
Price Target: $290.00-$293.00 (1st)
Estimated Duration to Target: 59-63d (1st)
Contract of Interest: $ENPH 1/21/22 280c
Trade price as of publish date: $8.05/contract
Where is Enphase Stock Moving Next?Enphase Energy NASDAQ:ENPH is following a similar pattern as it did in October 2020. Where it was coming off a rapid runup, slight consolidation, and then a sell-off just a few days before earnings.
Do you think the Solar/Energy stock will start to consolidate until earnings in a few days?
Or are the inflationary pressures just too much of a headwind?
Where is Enphase Energy Moving Next?Enphase Energy NASDAQ:ENPH is coming off an excellent month of June 2021, up over 30% and 82% YTD. Now, we sit about 30-days from earnings with the street estimating an EPS of $0.42.
Is there another period of time where ENPH faced a similar situation and chart pattern? Yes, from mid-September 2020, until mid-October 2020, ENPH ran up over 63% and reached its peaks about 30-days before earnings.
Looking back at the chart could help us understand where ENPH might be heading during July 2021.
Solar and energy storage stocks have been heating up as governments push climate agendas including possible tax credits for each stage of the solar manufacturing supply chain, tax credits for homeowners to install solar power, and other possible incentives and initiatives.
Another company that has benefitted from the current environment is Generac Holdings NYSE:GNRC . They also had an amazing month of June 2021, up over 26% and 84% YTD. Sure, with GNRC the weather plays a role as they sell many generators, but they are also ramping up on their energy storage solutions just like ENPH.
ENPH has a premium micro-inverter product and a growing energy storage business. This has given many analysts reason to place a buy rating on ENPH.
Now looking back at the chart. Comparing the two time periods, then and now, you can see that after the runup in 2020, ENPH consolidated up until earnings were released, and for about 7-days thereafter. Then, there was a spike in volume setting off a bull run that finished the year of 2020 and pushed the stock even higher into 2021. This rally set a new all-time high on January 7th, then another all-time high of $229 on February 10th (right when earnings were released).
Next, we had the great tech rotation sending any stock related to technology lower over the next 90-days. ENPH hit its low of $108 on May 11th. Since reaching the May 11th low, ENPH has climbed 73%, just another 18% and ENPH will be hitting a new ATH.
Now, here's what you came for. Where is ENPH moving next? Well, if history can be our guide, and yes, history doesn't repeat, history rhymes, then we should expect ENPH to start consolidating with a mix of green and red days until earnings. One thing on the chart that is different this time around is lower volume. Now after earnings are released it's anyone's guess. A beat on earnings could push ENPH to new all-time highs and a miss could give long-term investors a great entry point on a stock currently trading at a premium.
Now I will hand it off to you. Where do you think Enphase Energy is moving next?
ENPH - Look Out BelowLT support on W and M timeframe
PE ~= stock price (170 on 2/23)
Such a high flyer, it needs to come down to reality
From COVID low to ATH, 0.618 fib matches with LT trend (coincidence?).
Currently bouncing off of 26 W EMA, but I expect it to head towards 100, and I may look to buy <120
ENPHASE (ENPH): This Chart is Absurdly Bullish✨ New charts every day ✨
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Enphase (ENPH) has been an absolute beast, not just in terms of its chart, but in terms of other factors like earnings. After another quarter of strong earnings, the premium the market is willing to pay for this microinverter maker makes sense. Despite some risk due to a potential slowdown in the months ahead for the industry, we think there is still room to play the uptrend. As such, all we are looking for here is enough of a pullback in price to give us a long entry.
Resource: seekingalpha.com + www.fool.com + www.greentechmedia.com
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1. Fractal Trend has been showing an uptrend (Aqua bar color) on the 4 hour timeframe for almost 2 years now. There has rarely been a bad entry since then.
2. With this strategy, we are looking for long setups in an uptrend and as such want to enter long on retests of bullish order blocks plotted by Orderblock Mapping (Aqua) and/or bullish S/R levels plotted by Directional Bias (Aqua).
3. We are currently assuming the uptrend will continue, and as such are looking for a pullback to the nearest relevant support level to enter long. S1 looks like it will give us a great entry if ENPH can pullback enough to let us in.
4. This trade only has two relevant exit conditions. Either we close at our target, or we close if our stoploss is hit.
5. If for whatever reason S1 doesn't hold, we have mapped out a few other key levels to watch in the future. S2 is a good candidate for support on a deeper pullback due to the orderblock and S/R flip. S3 is the last support before the price inefficacy gap below. And S4 is a major support range that represents a final hope for Enphase bulls if S3 can't hold.
6. Lower levels aside, the idea here is simple, we are taking a stock that is in a strong uptrend, looking for a solid entry in that uptrend, and then aiming for an exit that offers a solid risk to reward ratio.
Good luck with this one gang!