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Entry

The markets are there to make you feel stupid or brilliantMany a trader will have made their best analysis based on information at the time and then taken an entry position, only to find that the market does something unexpected. Price may move violently in the wrong direction i.e. not the favoured direction and comes close to a stop loss or actually stopping out the position for a loss. Now with hindsight a trader feels or thinks, " How stupid - I should have seen it coming. I shouldn't have done that. " This happens enough times to new traders. Seasoned traders live with it and have less such self-talk. I think it's important to acknowledge those feelings. These are partly thinking processes and emotional processes. New traders often feel demoralised after 10 or so failures in a row. " Am I doing something wrong? " - they may think. This is a reasonable question. It could be that something is wrong. However, nothing may be found wrong with one's methodology or application of one's personal rules - after a careful reassessment. It's good to check. The BTCUSD chart shows what is some sort of 'head and shoulders' pattern. It's not the best picture of it in the world but something is there. Wherever one takes a position in BTCUSD, it could be wrong. Why? The markets respect no one person. A proportion of traders will have taken a position in this and made some real profits. They will punch the air and with joy go, " YESSSS!! " From my long experience I've learned that 'feelings' of being right or wrong, actually bends the mind a trader. I'm speaking for myself quite clearly. Others may have similar experience. A feeling of being good after a string of wins, often creates a subconscious sense of confidence. Imperceptibly this can creep into future trades and then one realises some major losses. My own strategy is to try at best to reduce trading frequency and exert even greater diligence in entering trades after a series of wins. I aim to expect the unexpected. It's always a tad difficult when I get stopped out for a loss. But I repeat to myself that the stoploss is there to protect against the 'unexpected' - so it's not actually unexpected. It is a limit. It is the expected limit of price moving not in a favoured direction. There is no single path to 'a promised land' in trading. Traders can adopt different methods, different rules, and be consistently profitable. The largest obstacle which is difficult to train out a trader, is their own personal psychology . By this I mean things like attention to detail, biases, emotions, discipline etc. So in many ways feeling stupid or brilliant can affect our future decision-making in imperceptible ways. Traders can lose discipline after losses or big gains. Mark Douglas spoke about these sorts of things. The BTCUSD chart is not intended to attract thoughts on whether to go long or go short. I'm not really interested in whether the H&S is there at all or correctly drawn. I'm taking it beyond that. What happens next to traders who come out of this period - some bruised, some overjoyed? Trading is not about winning one trade or a small handful. It's about the long road ahead. I'm delighted if others can share their experiences.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Bitcoin BTCUSD Entry points for shorts: Clean chartBitcoin: BTCUSD Trading The Breakdown The massive head and shoulders top formation that has been building since the weekend highs has been completed today. Though quite loosely defined and with two potential neck-lines lying 300 points apart at 15814 and 15509 the pattern is undeniably bearish for the next 24 to 48 hours by look of the chart. But in very near term Bitcoin is staging a counter-rally which has taken it back to the upper neckline at 15814 where it's meeting resistance - it will now have to push on through here and hold up to trigger a further unwinding of shorts back up to 16447 and into the upper parallel before it crashes back down again. But whilst unable to beat 15814 and hold Bitcoin is vulnerable - a sell from 15800 with stops 60 higher for small loss if wrong and it can beat this level and hold - in which case it should rally a further 800 points to the upper parallel and then come off from there - so presenting a second chance to short from highest extreme likely with a stop about 80 points above the patrallel. So two chances to short from here. It should fall away from 15814 (and from 16447/upper parallel at highest) - to test 14040 at least and more likely 13086. The minimum downside target implied by the head and shoulders is 11391. The blue lines of support and then resistance have been working OK so far since the descent began - as usual a fall below any line by more than 25 points or so should lead to further weakness to the next. The new parallels guiding this descent are wide and strong - wider than any of the up-trends on the other side of this mountain. It's big. Obviously. The chart shows it clearly. Right now Bitcoin is making a little continuation pattern - under the neckline - it will fight at 15000 and just above - a lot of orders still determined to buy at this round number - but they are matched by equally determined sellers at 15814. Eventually the bears are likely to win...use any last rally up to 15814 as a selling opportunity with stops just 60 points higher for small loss if wrong, looking for a fall to 14035 initially, then lower still, as above. If not already short any break below 15000 by more than 10 points can be followed for a fall to 14040. And when this gives way another short opens up, this time to 13086. Or look to use this little rally attempt to sell from 15500 with stops 60 points higher *Stops - cannot be used in traditional manner with Bitcoin. You have to keep a stop number in your head and set an alert so if it comes within 50 points or so you get a notification and then have to watch to see price action: is it a spike down to your level and quickly bought back up or is it sticking... be cold, emotionless, machine-like. Easier said than done sometimes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Trading the BreakdownBitcoin: BTCUSD Trading The Breakdown The massive head and shoulders top formation that has been building since the weekend highs has been completed today. Though quite loosely defined and with two potential neck-lines lying 300 points apart at 15814 and 15509 the pattern is undeniably bearish for the next 24 to 48 hours by look of the chart. But in very near term Bitcoin is staging a counter-rally which has taken it back to the upper neckline at 15814 where it's meeting resistance - it will now have to push on through here and hold up to trigger a further unwinding of shorts back up to 16447 and into the upper parallel before it crashes back down again. But whilst unable to beat 15814 and hold Bitcoin is vulnerable - a sell from 15800 with stops 60 higher for small loss if wrong and it can beat this level and hold - in which case it should rally a further 800 points to the upper parallel and then come off from there - so presenting a second chance to short from highest extreme likely with a stop about 80 points above the patrallel. So two chances to short from here. It should fall away from 15814 (and from 16447/upper parallel at highest) - to test 14040 at least and more likely 13086. The minimum downside target implied by the head and shoulders is 11391. The blue lines of support and then resistance have been working OK so far since the descent began - as usual a fall below any line by more than 25 points or so should lead to further weakness to the next. The new parallels guiding this descent are wide and strong - wider than any of the up-trends on the other side of this mountain. It's big. Obviously. The chart shows it clearly. Right now Bitcoin is making a little continuation pattern - under the neckline - it will fight at 15000 and just above - a lot of orders still determined to buy at this round number - but they are matched by equally determined sellers at 15814. Eventually the bears are likely to win...use any last rally up to 15814 as a selling opportunity with stops just 60 points higher for small loss if wrong, looking for a fall to 14035 initially, then lower still, as above. If not already short any break below 15000 by more than 10 points can be followed for a fall to 14040. And when this gives way another short opens up, this time to 13086. Or look to use this little rally attempt to sell from 15500 with stops 60 points higher *Stops - cannot be used in traditional manner with Bitcoin. You have to keep a stop number in your head and set an alert so if it comes within 50 points or so you get a notification and then have to watch to see price action: is it a spike down to your level and quickly bought back up or is it sticking... be cold, emotionless, machine-like. Easier said than done sometimes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
8
Dash Entry Point Reward to Risk 2:1Dash is forming an ascending triangle (Bullish). A break above the top could see a gain of 80-110% the height of the triangle. A pending order could be placed above the top of the triangle. Two things to watch out for. Target 1 is the ATH and it's pretty close. We might find resistance or reversal here. Between the buy opportunity and the max expected profit is the psychological barrier of 1K. This may cause heavy resistance or a reversal. Buying within the triangle is not advisable, since there is still roughly a 35% the trend will break the bottom rather than the top. Stops can be adjusted upward if the candles stay within the triangle for a while longer. This will eventually give a more attractive R:R
Long
by Tmoran
XRP Entry level Reward to risk 2.5:1XRP is forming a possible bull pennant. A pending order can be placed right above the top slope of the triangle @ .81ish. First target is an area of possible consolidation or reversal. This would be about 10% profit, which is a great place to prune risk by selling 1/3 of the original stake and raising the stop loss to the buy in price. At that point I'll lock in 3% profit no matter what happens. Note: if you made 3% each day, with compounding interest you'd double your money every month. If you average 3% per day for a year, each $1K stake would compound to $2.5 million. Second target is the psychological level just below $1. A great place to once again prune risk, as the chance of consolidation or reversal is pretty high here. The final target is the first fib extension. However, it is so close to the $1, I'm skeptical well get there before another flag forms and another entry is possible.
Long
by Tmoran
LTC Entry Point LTC is still forming an ascending triangle pattern (bullish), which is functioning as a bull flag (bullish) at the top of the rapid run up from the low 100s, which forms the flagpole. A pending order may be placed above the top of the triangle @ 330. By breaking the bullish ascending triangle consolidation pattern, LTC can be expected to gain 80-110% the hight of the triangle. By breaking the top of a bull flag, there is a chance of gaining the entire length of the flagpole. There are two partial take profit targets that are marked in blue and line up with the fib extensions. Consolidation or reversal may occur at or around these levels. I'll be reducing my exposure by selling some of my stake at each of these levels. I'll also be adjust my stop loss up to protect my gains. It is not advisable to try to buy inside the triangle since there is still a roughly 35% the trend will break the bottom of the triangle, which could trigger a retrace of 80-110% the height of the triangle from the point where it breaks. Don't forget to place stops once your buy triggers, as a BTC correction still possible and could drag the market down with it.
Long
by Tmoran
NXT USDT Updated Another Bull Flag Entry PointHello again! NXT is turning into the king of December with setup after setup giving us great entry and reentry points. We're currently in another Bull Flag/Bull Pennant. A break above the top would signal an entry point - A word of caution on this one though. We're right below the longterm trend line, so I could enter at .695 only to see us bounce off the longterm trendline at .72; however the overall trend and fundamentals are so bullish on this coin that I'm not overly concerned. If we make it through the trendline: Target 1: previous All time high (I'll be taking 25% off the table here) Target 2: The length of the flagpole added to the top of the flag (note: the pattern suggest a gain of 80-110% of the flagpole, so I'll be keeping an eye on this range for reversal or consolidation, either of which will se me taking another 25% off the table). Target 3 is the extension of the Fib, it's also right below the $1 mark which should be a significant psychological hurdle. Overall, note: I pretty confident at this point that this coin will go over $2 this month, with a reach goal of $5. All of these entries and exits are meant to increase my pile of NXT, while protecting my trading bankroll. See my previous ideas on NXT for an explanation of the Ignis air drop on the 28th or to see how my other trades have worked out.
NLong
by Tmoran
13
BTC Entry R:R 3.5:1 Looks like we might breach the top of a Bull Pennant (this needs to be confirmed by making a new local high), if so we are headed to 20K. First target and final target marked on the chart. We will be protected on the downside both by the icould and the icloud baseline. Caution: if the bottom is broken rather than the top, we could be in for a deeper correction, so buy at the bottom of the triangle to squeeze out a couple extra % of profit would be a really bad idea.
Long
by Tmoran
STRAT BTC ENTRY Reward to Risk 3:1 If the top of the descending triangle is broken it will be a very bullish sign and I expect we will quickly run up to the recent swing high of about 0.00075 BTC. This will be the zone of take profit 1, where I'll cash out 50% of my initial trade and adjust my stop-loss up to my entry point. Final Target is the 1.618 Fib extension. Note: The downward sloping upper side of the triangle must be broken for this theory to be valid. Trade responsibly; don't forget your stop-losses!
SLong
by Tmoran
1
ETHUSD Update Good for Day Traders, others look for lower entry ETHUSD Update Neutral in near term but still bearish whilst trapped under 440 Very interesting price action here: having sold at 468/9 we were waiting to see if ETH could hold up above the lower parallel...it tried so hard for a few hours but eventually it succumbed...failed breaks: remember the pyschology gone over in past posts...day traders are out almost immediately an ETH dives to find structure to left, losing the line at 446 like a hot knife through butter, finding support around the next line of support at 433/target level for bears to close out shorts with a low at 432 (mid structure here, so far) on the chart. Although day traders have bailed out some have bought back lower and others, bemused by the price action remain long...the pattern is confusing in the very near term at that point...bulls say it's cool, spike down, correction done, it's OK so long as 446 holds it up ...those looking at the bigger picture are not so sure ...we did the right thing to trap in profits close to the highs of the run: and not to get trapped at the 480 levels even though it was looking fine for a few hours before failing. It was OK to close out shorts at 433 too. But this pattern is not healthy now. ETH has not finished its rinse out by look of it. More stale bulls need taking out, still, before this is ready to rock again...it's till under pressure whilst unable climb back above 440 and hold up there...432 must hold now if ETH is to have a chance of stabilising here. Any failure here will tip ETH back into bear territory, forcing price lower to 418 and likely spiking as low as 410 before rallying back to 432/3. Annd if at any point 410 gives way by more than 3points look to shoort again on next pull back to 410 fr another decline to 385. Good trades here so long as we follow what the chart is telling us. Initial resistance at 439-440. Needs to break above here and hold before the bears will let go, then it should run up to 446-8 again and come off one more time from there. Good moves for day-traders here but for swingers and those looking to buy this at a good price it looks like we'll get a better chance from lower down if we wait, and not be tired by waiting, etc.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
2
Dash/Dollar: DASHUSD Entry levels/Strategy ReviewDash/Dollar DASHUSD Strategies Reviewed Time Always Tells The 2 possible entry strategies yesterday gave one great result and for the other the jury is still out. You'll be familiar with the story about the old bull and his boy out on the range: the young bull sees a herd a beautiful looking cows in the valley below and says: Dad, look at those babes...that one looks like Adriana Lima! Let's get down there and...you know the rest. That was Dash yesterday - don't chase, it might just come to you and eat right out of your hand. Sure enough some smart traders stuck a few lazy orders down at 302 (entry was actually placed just above the break level/previous spike low on Thursday at 302.8 but it looks to have come down to 300 low) - and then ripped 57 points or 20% in a near straight line in less than 6 hours...makes Bitcoin look quite tame at the moment. That was the good choice, the older, calmer way to go. The other choice was follow the break-out above new structure at around current prices now, 338-342. Then we have to keep an eye on price action to see how it behaves after the breakout, obviously. And here, it has to be said that follow through is lame, so far. We're in a weekend too. We can see those two spikes that have recently formed, showing quite strong rejection from just under 360, so am concerned here that if it breaks back down below 335 now, it will likely fall away on lack of buying interest to 318 at least and quite possibly it can spike down to 302 again before it rallies...this break-out has failed, so far. That's what the chart is saying, and Dash needs buyers now to push it higher still, otherwise it will start to fall away. So need to put a tight stop under this, if long and day-trading, at 328. If hit, then put a buy order in at 305 with stop just under 296 and see if it gets filled. Longer term The sloping head and shoulders pattern here is similar to the one on Facebook, in this case with a minimum upside target at 453, with the most likely points of resistance on the way marked on the chart. It's good medium term. But be careful of whipsaw between 302 real support and 340 reistance in the very near term. It's a good tradeable 10% range for day- traders once 330 gives way...that's where they're most likely to step in on short side, so use stops, looking to get long again from lower down if 330 gives way. Moral of this dumb story: sometimes it pays to be cool and calculating and sometimes it also pays to follow the herd and play momentum breaks. But a momentum break needs careful watching over on the day following the break: did volume spike on the break out? Has it had follow-through? Are there any scary pin bars forming showing quite strong rejection at higher levels...? You knew all this anyway. Don't trade on hope. Trade on what the chart tells you. If you can manage to master this Zen-like state, you are free. It's not you. It's the chart.
BITTREX:DASHUSDLong
by sumastardon
Ethereum/Dollar: ETCUSD - entry points Ethereum Classic/Dollar ETCUSD Nice continuation patterns here giving quite clear entry points on each break above each little pattern. It's just had a good break and is a little overbought - so can't chase it here - instead, suggest 'going fishin' (as with last Dash comment which yesterday worked perfectly) - put an order in just above 15.24 break out level and maybe later in session the fish will swim to the bait and bite and maybe it won't. Eventually this looks as if it will move back to retest the highs around 23, with each level of most likely near term resistance, shown on chart....let's see if the fish bites
BITFINEX:ETCUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin; BTCUSD Last valiant chance to go long with stop closeBitcoin A fantastic point perfect test of the parabola has held up Bitcoin so far. It's rallied to 7150 and stopped, coming back down to give a buying opportunity close to 7080, so look to buy as close as possible witha stop under 7050. If this ends up failing, we've had a valiant try and a faily small loss compared to potential gains if this is the to be the low. And if it isn't please refer to earlier comment for shorting strategies.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon