[BTC] Bulls Continue to Deliver as Chance of Reversal IncreasesIn my last post I showed you the more or less parallel support/resistance lines that I was watching in the short-term as price continued descend to that important bright red trendline. Got close to it but not all the way down... yet.
I extended the lines that kept the downward staircase pattern. On this 1-hr time frame you can see in hindsight of course that each stair step down had a consolidation triangle or bear flag held up by these rough trendlines. Each leg down had a shorter drop and shorter consolidation as it got closer to the lows at $7040, which was a good signal that the bears wearing become exhausted.
We dipped down, which wasn't unexpected, from $7.4-$7.5k yesterday and the lowest white trendline had held us up long enough that I was comfortable enough to re-invest a little bit of the profit I realized at $7.5k to my position with a tight stop-loss. Turned out to be a good move and buyers propelled us back up above the darker red uptrend line that has been a significant pivot point. Now though, we do seem to be strongly above it after re-testing it and the white trendline just below it, resulting in a couple bullish hammer candles on the hourly chart. Now as we cut through those previous resistances, I'm slowly scaling out of part of my position and holding half for mid-long term.
Resistance to watch now is the highest white trendline that capped the recent jump at $7600. If that is cleared then we can zoom out and try to assess the bigger picture on the 4-hr and 1-day charts. Watching 12 and 26 EMAs on all time frames still!
I was expecting to see a touch of the long-term support trendline just below at $6900 but bulls showed up quickly. I had been buying a little each stair step down, not trying to time the bottom, and it turned out to be a good strategy. Although the likelihood of going back down to test that $6900 area would be ideal for a reversal, I don't see it as necessary to have a successful reversal/bounce. The selling had been intense on the way down and we still have a higher low formed on the daily time frame which helps strengthen my view that we are converging to a point of equilibrium in a large triangle.
Equilibrium
[ETH] Levels and Zones to Watch if (when) ETH Continues DownUpdated the key levels I'm watching for potential bounces, reversals, consolidations, etc. on ETHUSD as we wait for consolidation to end after heavy selling last couple days. The last chart I posted showed a channel, which I was surprised had broken down so quickly and violently just after already strong bear moves. Volume is spiking here on the daily chart.
As you can see I've got a No Buy Zone labeled, which we are currently consolidating right at the top of. This consolidation could be prolonged quite a while and might rotated about the $590 axis. The zone had no resistance on the way up and likely needs to be "Traded Out" so to speak.
Below that, a POTENTIAL Reversal Zone could be around the top of the massive green candle we had in early April. That movement was so abnormal (in BTC anyways) that I think it's likely we'll go down to at least test that price before buying significantly.
Scenarios:
1) We move sideways for a long time in the No Buy Zone then grind back upwards. (BULL, 50/50 CHANCE)
2) Rocket out above $600, little resistance, retest $590, strong support, Lambos on the Moon, yada yada yada. (STRONG BULL, LOW CHANCE)
3) Continuation Pattern forms and breaks down from No Buy Zone, then look for possibilities of Potential Reversals in the $475-ish area. This would allow us to establish a higher low and maintain convergence pattern towards an equilibrium. (BEAR, HIGH CHANCE)
4) Current leg of downtrend doesn't last, consolidation is short, drop straight through under $500 in the next couple days. From there, who knows tbh. Perhaps we bounce of the solid red line of long-term support, but it's too soon to say, could go even lower afterwards even. (STRONG BEAR, 50/50 CHANCE)
Bottom line, at this point the bears clearly have the floor, we'll see where they place it.
BTC Weekly equilibriumI'm using wicks here since it's the weekly and crypto markets never close. After the dump we hit a low in February that sticks and hit a lower high, higher low, lower high, and we'll see if we can hit a higher low this week. There's still room to dip further from where we are and maintain weekly equilibrium.
Zooming out on the weekly chart of BTC a bit can give some perspective. Sometimes. Sometimes not.
BTCUSD - Price Prediction and Technical Analysis (May to July)Horizontal Green Lines = Support Levels
Horizontal Red Lines = Resistance Levels
Diagonal Purple Lines = Tightening of Resistance/Support
White Arrows = Prediction of future market movements based off personal TA
Equilibrium formation on the Daily/Weekly chart that is about to finish up it's tightening pattern. An equilibrium occurs when the support and resistance levels slowly squeeze the market trend closer and closer to the middle of the two, which eventually breaks causing the market to burst towards a direction chosen by the majority (and Fomo).
From what I can see, the market should be heading towards the $7800-8100 region in the next 2 to 3 weeks, after it makes a small bounce to the $8700 area to finish up this week. From there onwards, we'll see the market move back up again to test a newly formed resistance level (Mid-$8000), while consolidating along side the topside of the Purple Diagonal Line. Soon after, the bulls will realize the market is finally ready to start a new uptrend, and the shorts/whales will fomo buy and launch BTC out of the equilibrium pattern to finally begin a new uptrend that will last for the 2nd half of the year.
Thank You, and Good Luck!
~~ Not Financial Advice. Also, the lines and numbers show the general direction/area of movement, and are not "exact" ~~
Equilibrium Consolidation Fractal?Ticker: COINBASE:BTCUSD
Time Frame: 3h/5 Months
Not well versed in fractals, but I see a pattern that's reoccurring that would confirm the equilibrium consolidation.
It would also confirm my TA that's been saying we should be going down, not up right now, to get ready for the real bull run.
If a higher low is confirmed I will be entering all fiat into the crypto market, though, you may want to hold to make sure a fourth consolidation fractal doesn't play out. I think that may be unlikely though.
BTC Equilibrium Pattern to watch for 2018BTC seems to have established a Higher low on the Weekly chart. Seeing that I would now say that we will run in an Equilibrium Pattern into late May/early June. My opinion is the we will see a high around $9,000-$9,200 and then get a pull back to as low as $7,500 but staying in our pattern (creating a Higher low). I then see a run breaking out passed the $9,200 level and going to $10,000+ and breaking out of the pattern. If we go a little further into the future and end up seeing BTC breakout over the $11,800 level, we could see a huge 2nd half of 2018. If this pattern on the Weekly chart breaks down and we lose our higher lows we could easily test the $6,500-$6,000 level again. In My Opinion We will be very bullish for the 2nd half of the year, happy trading!
BTC: Potential Swing Trade Entry?Tightening equilibrium pattern on BTC. Getting close to a flex point. Must see a break. Saw Bulls attempt a breakout today. However, lower highs returned. Still, BTC is currently in a healthy consolidation after morning bull break.
BTC needs to get over $11,690.00 for clear Bull Break. $10,853.00 and $10,850.00 is a double bottom.
IMHO, BTC setting up for a great swing trade entry.
BTC 3848 consolidation on target BTC's 3848 two-week consolidations on target. Actually a tiny bit bullish, just a little.
Short and sweet, take it with a grain of salt.
~Ji
This is not advice.
I don't need to be right or wrong.
I don't care if the market goes up or down.
Make your Own analysis and trade off of that.
If you have positive, constructive criticism and wish to share Please do.
Agreeing or Disagreeing is not personal and is welcomed in a positive way.
This is not a therapy outlet for negativity. Go join MMA.
Happy trading everyone.
Equilibrium channelUSDJPY make +100 pip bullish move after NFP release with 29k better than forecast.
But this news cannot make bigger move and USDJPY Still trap inside equilibrium channel (A=B=C=D=E=F=G)
Dont make hurry decission in this movement, because to make trend change, this pair must break up 111.34 as bullish key level for this week
*break trendline its not a sign of reversal
Disclaimer :
This analysis not include personal feeling/opinion, and pure base on technical analysis
Trading foreign currencies can be a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for investors. However, before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.
ETHUSD Equilibrium Pattern BULLISH BreakoutEquilibrium pattern forming on ETHUSD. We had a big correction on 7/18 from the new recent high of 271. Trend is still upwards with some small, healthy corrections along since then. Notice the large green volumes following each correction are larger than the previous reds. ETH is still bullish, as is BTC, indicating a good correlation. Watch MACD on 4hr and daily. I will target long position between 215-225. An upward break will likely pass the 237 level and retest 271. Wait for the equilibrium pattern break and a nice bull candle to enter.
Be smart, methodical, and responsible. Let me know what you all think.
$xlu continuation patterns across the board!-higher time frame showing healthy pullback in defined uptrend finding support at 53.3x area
-mid time frame shows range bound action after a quick downtrend/ signs of accumulation are seen in range bound equilibrium
-momentum is strengthening upward along with volume pressure
-spring candle/pinbar found on mid time frame finding quick support at 53.3x area shows buyers conviction
multiple retests of resistance area 53.6x area shows weakness and high probability of breaking out
lower time frame supports previously mentioned idea with price action making higher lows and higher highs into resistance showing buyers conviction with rising rsi
USDJPY SHORTPink dashed lines are levels where I would like price to play resistance bounce and trade onto the downside towards the previous day EQ & taking out the lows then to the structure low 110.241. I'll like to see clear rejection from the pink zone (Breaker) to get involved but right now I am sitting on my hands.
EURGBP SHORTPrice respects Daily & 4Hr order block, trades back into the up trendline structure. Fib drawn from swing high to low 50% retracement level & 4hr breaker low lines up together @ .86081. Possible HP move on the downside if EQ holds. Also previous week EQ too .86075 added confluence for me to short this pair if price action plays out to the books.