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FYI - Will Stock market History Repeat itself? From 10-8-2019 CNBC Article The father of the yield curve indicator says now is the time to prepare for a recession. The yield for the 3-month Treasury has been above the 10-year since May, a condition known as an inverted yield curve that has predicted the past seven recessions. “This is the time where you need to reflect upon your strategy." “It’s way better to have a plan to go by than to find yourself in a situation where the recession hits and you have to improvise.” My opinion: Need to be extra ready to get out of the market when the yield curve crosses above zero. Source: www.cnbc.com
DJ:DJI
by Marius1032
Russell 2000 to Lead US Equities Lower?We have what appears to be a reversal pattern here with the Russell 2000. You can call it a head and shoulders although not textbook. Again it shows a shift in trend from higher lows to now lower highs. The neckline has been broken, and I am using the 1575.80 area as my lower high swing. Lot of debate on what leads, the mid caps or large caps. In my experience, I have seen money flow into the mid caps first before the large caps. Again, this is just a trade to the zone I have depicted below. Like the set up and confluences we have here. Also, if more recession signs appear then the Russell will take a hit as well.
OANDA:US2000USDShort
by Uncharted-FX
ES1! SPY SPX - S&P500 Channel TestSince August 2019, the S&P 500 has entered into a "Channel" formation between 2823-2946, with trading being quite choppy ever since. Despite the market's volatility throughout August, it appears that the S&P 500 is making strides in trying to exit this "Channel" pattern to the upside. Two indicators to support the S&P500's move higher is: 1) The S&P 500's rising RSI momentum ("Higher Lows and Higher Highs") indicating investors are steadily moving back into the index; and, 2) The S&P 500 is still above its green trend line indicating that the upward momentum is still intact. If these two trends hold, we could see prices making a move higher to 2980 - a Key Monthly Resistance Level (Blue)
SP:SPXLong
by EconomicsGlobal
S&P500 Head and Shoulders Short SetupRecent price action continues to push the index lower. It has nearly completed the head and shoulders pattern. For this pattern to be active, there needs to be follow through on the break of the pattern neckline. I would start getting excited if price can hold below 2786. The head and shoulders pattern comes at a critical point in the structure since price rejected the Sept/Oct 2018 high, thus creating a double top as well. However, price is trading near a confluence of support, the 200 EMA and the pattern neckline. Those interested in the short should pay close attention to 2786 and how price reacts at that level.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by tradingwithyg
I have seen this SPX chart before:So, i was studying the daily/weekly chart of the $SPX and thought to myself: this chart pattern looks familiar to me. I feel like I have seen this before in the not-to-distant past. The pattern: 1. cruising along at market highs 2. bears take over and we see a ~10% correction 3. bulls resume control and take prices back towards prior highs 4. we fail to break those previous highs, and bears resume control, sending us lower than the previous swing low (from #2) 5. daily/weekly charts turn ugly as we now are looking at a lower low 6. touch and test 200 week EMA, turn back upwards, eventually going back to prior highs late 2015-early 2016 that look cannot be a very reassuring look for bulls at this point. But of course, as we know, this bull market continued marching on: ******************** If we look a little closer at the daily chart from 2016, we can see that after completing the 2nd 'green cycle' in early July, we rallied and made new highs. We only rallied about 3% before the momentum stalled out and more or less drifted sideways for several months. The shaded part of the chart shows that the next little 'cycle' lasted roughly 120 days, further broken into 2 roughly equal 60 day halves. Each highlighted by several smaller little ranges and cycles within that. The first 60 days we traded in several tight ranges nearer the highs before bears gained a little momentum and sent prices below its 50-day moving averages. I see the second 60 days as the markets displaying a little more uncertainty in future prices as highlighted by the several sets of small near-symmetrical wedges. Each one began as establishing a high and low price, followed by 1-2 weeks of tightening price action with lower highs and higher lows, before breaking the wedge, and starting the next one. Bears picked up some momentum towards the end of the 120 days and pushed prices down to test the 200 day moving average which also happened to be slightly below the prior resistance before bulls resumed control and we really began rallying A rally that lasted for about 14 months and almost 40% before we topped out in Jan 2018. At which point, begins the repeating cycle at the center of this post. A pattern which may have just completed after 15-16 months, as we made a new ATH this prior week. A lot of the action over the last half a year have been led, in my opinion, largely by China trade talks. Which, AS I am sitting here writing this up (sunday afternoon), i see headlines crossing that a new wrinkle may have just presented itself in the form of Trump wanting to impose new tariffs on ALL Chinese imports, in an effort to hasten a deal. Any major change in how the markets perceive these trade talks to be progressing will almost assuredly be a market moving event. I personally feel that the announcement of completion of deal will be a sell-the-news event in the short term. However, any breakdown in those talks will also lead to selling. It will be interesting to see how futures react tonight when the indices resume trading. The markets have shown great resiliency these last 6 months, and in the bigger picture, may end up being a very healthy pause within the larger bull market. I am certainly no perma-bull (if anything, closer to the opposite, as i tend to be more alert for bearish scenario's; with that old saying 'stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down'), and i am very well aware that this bull market cycle has lasted for over 10 years now. But i am also not really seeing a lot of big flashing warnings signs for the economy's health. GDP, unemployment, personal income/spending, and those sorts of gauges remain strong, and so far in this earnings season, corporate earnings have not shown to be slowing down quite as much as previously expected. This is already one of the longest bull runs in history, and its all cyclical...just the nature of life; but man...hard to look at these charts and be overly bearish.... As always, just my personal opinion..... any comments and thoughts are always welcomed :)
SP:SPX
by PMtrading20
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